It looks like we finally have a peace deal between Iran and the U.S. (and maybe Israel). Neither side can agree on the terms, so it’s really more of a tentative agreement to stop shooting at each other…at least for now.
Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here, coming to you from the San Luis Valley in southern Colorado. I’m on my way to New Mexico, and I just heard on the radio that we have a peace deal between the United States and Iran. So I went till I get a blip of data and. Yeah, no we don’t. Okay, let me outline the five big things that supposedly there’s agreement not agreement on.
Number one, the Strait of Hormuz itself, the idea both sides say that it’s going to be open. The Americans say there’s going to be no charge whatsoever for anyone passing through. Iran is confirmed that there will not be tolls. There will be a service fee that is higher than the tolls they’ve been charging. So air. Number two, Israel’s included, according to the Iranians, and not included according to the United States.
In fact, in the time it took me to get my blip, the Israelis have carried out several strikes throughout the country.
number three, the nuclear program. The United States has said that the Iranians will close the entire thing down, and that all the enriched uranium in the country will be removed and spun down to what you would use for power, fuel.
The Iranians have said no, not even remotely. It’s never leaving the country. We might spin it down to 30% enrichment. By the way, you need 95% for a bomb and only 3.5% for nuclear power. But that’s it, then. Sanctions. Iran says that they’re all lifted immediately in the United States. This says they’ll be lifted in stages, with the first phase being lifted maybe in 60 days, assuming the Iranians behave.
And then, number five, restitution. The Iranians say that the Americans have agreed to $300 billion of investment to compensate for launching the war. The Americans made no mention of that. The Iranians also said that $25 billion of frozen assets will be freed immediately. And the United States has said, you know, in bits and pieces over the next decade, maybe.
Why so far apart? I mean, actually, these positions are further apart than we were back in February, the day before the war started. The key thing to remember about all of this is number one. The Iranians are always bastards when it comes to negotiating. Everyone has been trying to hold talks with them in some form for over 40 years.
And so the idea that this time it was going to be quick, please. Second, there’s not a single American involved in these talks. It’s not just that we have a Pakistani field marshal doing the negotiating. It’s being moderated by Qatar and Saudis. However, the United States does not have an ambassador in Pakistan or Saudi Arabia or gutter or Kuwait for that matter.
So everything is happening like a game of telephone, three steps removed from any American. And then the State Department isn’t involved because there are no ambassadors. So it’s not a surprise to me that this isn’t going anywhere. What’s the surprise to me is that anyone else thinks it might be going somewhere. Markets, of course, have exploded and all is down, but there’s no reason to think that this is going to be any different.
If you just need something to underline that, the documents will be signed in Switzerland on Friday remotely, the Americans and the Iranians can’t be bothered to show up. So no, this is not the end. All they’ve agreed is they would prefer to stop shooting at one another. We’ll see how long that lasts.
