Want to know when the war in Ukraine will end and who will emerge victorious? Unfortunately, I don’t have my magic 8-ball on me, but I can give you a timeline on when we should all be able to answer those questions [...]

The tides of war are beginning to shift in favor of the Ukrainians, so the Russians are resorting to attacking the very infrastructure that enables Ukraine to function as a country. This means water and power are being [...]

The new American model of fighting wars is here, at least for the next 20 years. Since the global war on terror left a sour taste in Americans’ mouths, putting boots on the ground isn’t an option. The Ukraine [...]

Anyone remember that famous Napoleon quote – “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” Well, if there was a time in history when that quote rang true, it would be right now, watching the [...]

The War in Ukraine has proven disastrous for Europe’s dwindling energy supply. Now that Europe has lost its primary source of natural gas – Russia – they’re paying up to 10x market [...]

The Nord Stream bombing is one of those situations where the truth won’t set you free. Sweden, which has the most robust naval and forensic capabilities in the area, is indicating it has ample evidence to [...]

When you think about cities with bright futures, what are the factors you consider? Energy Production? Agriculture? Population? Manufacturing? There’s plenty more, but let’s focus on those. Houston is a [...]

In the early hours of November 16th, an oil tanker was struck by an armed drone off the coast of Oman. Strikes like this might not sink a ship with 1 or even 5 hits…but it is a sign of the changing times in [...]

There’s a few reasons people love manufacturing in Texas – it’s cheap, it follows American law and low tax rates. Electronics manufacturing is something that Americans haven’t worried about [...]

I got to play storm tracker over the weekend in Palm Beach and wanted to give you some of my best tips on tracking hurricanes and avoiding their ensuing destruction. These storms roll out in 3-waves, with the first wave [...]

Over the weekend, the Ukrainians recaptured the city of Kherson from the Russians. A huge strategic win for Ukraine and only the first of many humiliating retreats & defeats that the Russians will soon [...]

Any time I attempt to plot out any data set of global scale, the result is going to be a splatter of clown vomit. This graphic – showcasing global life expectancy – is no exception. Unfocus your eyes and stare at it [...]

Have you ever been stuck in bumper-to-bumper traffic on the highway? How about trying to find a parking spot at a sold out event? That’s the exact position Russian troops are in as they follow orders to withdraw [...]

For my fellow backpackers, you know what day 4 of a trip means…fresh socks! So a discussion of chemical and biological warfare seems fitting. As the superpowers discovered during the Cold War, chemical warfare is [...]

Why is the German system so stable…because they didn’t create it. The British, French and Americans did. No foreign strategic policy = no military = no war. A fool-proof plan…right? Unfortunately, the [...]

Despite what you might be hearing, the United States is in the midst of its greatest period of industrialization since WWII… if not ever. How did we get here? For starters, the political environment of the last [...]

The last modern American president we’ll be discussing in our leadership series is – you guessed it – Joe Biden. Similar to Barack Obama, President Biden didn’t spend much time working a [...]

Is it a bird? A plane? Nope, just interest rates rising again. At this point, most of us know the drill with the Federal Reserve raising and lowering interest rates to play puppet master with demand. However, not all of [...]

The best way to understand Donald Trump is to compare him to his immediate predecessor, President Obama. Both were outside candidates who came with their own political support and ran on charisma, rather than policy. [...]

The Brazilian elections took place over the weekend, resulting in a narrow win by center-left candidate and former president – Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, over right-incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. As [...]

Many people are surprised when I saw that Barack Obama was the second-smartest American president of recent history, after Bill Clinton. I should also say that in no way serves as an endorsement or that I think either [...]

Before becoming president of the United States, George W. Bush was famously the governor of Texas. There are few state-wide offices in the country as relatively weak as the Texas governorship, and it’s hard to find [...]

For all of Bill Clinton’s considerable intelligence, bouts of intense curiosity, and ability to make dazzle a room of even his opponents, there was not a lot of deep domestic or international policy crafting during [...]

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia exists as an odd mish-mash of geography and geology. It’s large, desert frontiers are remarkably ill-suited to economic activity. Before the discovery of oil, the main financial [...]

A large part of geopolitics is geography–some might even say the most important part. And when it comes to geography, few places are as blessed as the United States.  One of the key pillars supporting the [...]

Russia’s reliance on Iran for armed drones and missiles is a resounding fall from grace for the one-time defense manufacturing rival to the United States. And a telling indicator of not only just how far the [...]

Many people would consider it difficult to manage a country like Russia. It’s not. Or at least for Vladimir Putin, he’s following a well trod path mapped out for him by the former Soviet Union and its [...]

No matter the official line that comes out of the Chinese Communist Party Congress, Xi Jinping is China’s president for life. Rather than bringing stability to a very uncertain future for China, Xi’s [...]

The Biden administration’s moves against China’s semiconductor industry are continuing to have serious consequences, including the largely universal resignation of American citizens working in the [...]

I’m frequently asked why the Germans aren’t doing more to support Ukraine. My response is: are you fully aware of how much they’ve already put on the line?  The industrial heart of Europe has [...]

Even as Russia continues its work to assess the damage of the October 8 blast that destroyed part of the Kerch Strait Bridge, one thing is glaringly evident: we are at least weeks, if not months, away from normal [...]

The Biden Administration has announced further limits on Chinese firms’ ability to access foreign (read: US dominated) semiconductor technology. Many of my followers ask why I don’t consider China a more [...]

I’m going to be discussing some disturbing aspects of the Ukraine War today. Consider this your parental advisory. In the aftermath of the Russia’s failed Kyiv offensive, the world became aware of the omnipresent nature [...]

A Ukrainian attack has severely damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge, the primary supply line for Russian food, fuel, ammunition and reinforcements into the Crimean Peninsula and southwestern Ukraine. It is, simply put, the [...]

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia announced yesterday that they would be cutting back daily oil production to the tune of about two million barrels per day to help shore up oil prices. I [...]

Ukrainian forces are poised to rout Russian defensive formations around the critical southern city of Kherson. This comes weeks after a planned counter offensive went into effect, but on the heels of significant gains [...]

Brazilians will return to polls later this month to vote in a presidential run-off election between former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known popularly as Lula, and firebrand current president Jair [...]

Last week (when the following video was recorded) saw the British Pound get pummeled by global markets following the announcement of the Truss’ governments “mini-budget.” The Bank of England intervened [...]

Iran is in the midst of one of the most serious rounds of public unrest since November 2019, when a hike in fuel prices sent potentially hundreds of thousands of Iranians out into the streets. Dozens of structures were [...]

When it comes to conventional warfare, Russian leaders have relied upon the same tactic for centuries: throw people at the problem. Russian territory has poor defensibility–so too do the lands of the countries [...]

Italians have gone to the polls again, with a coalition of right-far right parties winning the most votes. This makes the leader of the largest party of the coalition, the Fratelli d’Italia (or Brothers of Italy), [...]

Something’s damaged the Nord Stream supply lines that transit through the Baltic Sea. Inconvenient in the best of times, sure, but in the current geopolitical climate there are tons of theories and fingers being [...]

Every agricultural, industrial and energy commodity has its own story as regards its geography of production, supply chains and use. I try to get to as many of them as possible in the new book, The End of the World [...]

A decade ago, Alberta’s oil sands were the home of the most expensive to produce crude oil on the planet. Not only that, but Canada’s mix of intra-provincial competition and weak federal control left the [...]

Russian president Vladimir Putin has called up some 300,000 Russian troops in a “partial mobilization” to assist Russian forces in Moscow’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have had some [...]

European nations are debating a potential Russian tourist ban, with the general theme being “you shouldn’t be able to visit our beaches and luxury shops while simultaneously supporting a regime declaring war [...]

“What about Russian nukes?” It’s a question I hear in some form or another almost daily while I’m traveling to speak and meet with clients, or in response to my newsletters. My attitude most days [...]

Things aren’t looking great for Beijing.  Weeks of military posturing and a range of indirect-to-direct military threats against Taiwan following United States Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s [...]

Americans woke up to news today that Germany has nationalized assets–primarily refineries–owned by Russian oil giant Rosneft. Assets worth billions of dollars. Though this is not surprising or unexpected, [...]

The success of Ukrainian forces against Russian troops over the last week is forcing a series of reevaluations of Russian capabilities–especially in the places most of us might not yet be thinking about. [...]

Bernie Sanders has long been my least favorite personality in the American political world. Not because he’s an idiot (although he is) or because his ideology is historically, morally and economically blind (although it [...]

The Russia military position in Ukraine is collapsing so quickly that…words are inadequate.  We have never and will never charge for our newsletters or videos, but we do have an ask. If you enjoy our products, [...]

I have admittedly been taking a break from presenting an update on Europe’s energy future, and not just to hike into the wilderness. There are certainly a lot of balls up in the air right now, and we’re [...]

When I recorded the first part of today’s video, it was in reaction to news that the Russians were having to turn to Iran of all places to help replace the drones lost in ongoing invasion of Ukraine. That Moscow [...]

As long as I’m slaying sacred cows, let’s make sure I don’t miss anything: the border wall has been the biggest boon of the last 50 years to illegal migrants, COVID has made large-scale immigration an economic necessity, [...]

I hate COVID so very, very much. Not only has it (bizarrely) become a new third rail in American politics, but its international nature has also accelerated many global trade and diplomatic disputes which were already [...]

We are seeing a tremendous amount of arms and technology flowing into Ukraine from NATO members, Sweden and Finland. This amounts to one of the greatest transfers of tech and materiel since the collapse of the Cold War. [...]

In the new book –The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization– I dive into any number of the implications of a country’s hydrological cycles and access. Everything from its ability to [...]

Kyiv announced a counteroffensive against Russian positions around the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson earlier this week, aimed at liberating the strategic oblast’s capital. Russian forces have been in control of the [...]

After an adventure that included harrowing high altitude crossings, brushes with forest fires, a pulled hamstring, and some really good wine, I have returned from my annual detox trip. But before I start laying down some [...]

The latest jobs report–published August 5–showed that the United States added over half a million new jobs in the month of July. Unemployment is at or a near a 50-year low. Both points add credence to a [...]

Turkish and UN diplomats have spent the last several weeks trying to forge a deal between Ukraine and Russia that would see Kyiv’s embargoed wheat be able to reach ports around the world. There have been several [...]

The Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, has arrived in Taiwan. As such, she is the highest-ranking US official to make a visit to the island since her predecessor, Speaker Newt Gingrich, visited in [...]

The United States announced August 1 that it had killed the ideological head of al Qaeda, Ayman al Zawahiri, in a drone strike, over the previous weekend. Reportedly battling a long-time illness, al Zawahiri’s [...]

Gazprom, the Russian state’s gas monopoly notified its European customers that it was declaring force majeure in its supply contracts going back to June 14, citing “extraordinary [...]

California. Germany. Texas. France. Not a normal grouping of places or policies or politics. Especially when one wants to talk about energy. All four, however, are in the midst of a transition to renewable or green [...]

I recently had the pleasure of joining Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer on Sam Harris’ podcast, Making Sense. We discussed my new book The End of the World is Just the Beginning and had a [...]

Inflation in the United States has reached a four-decade high, according to data released by the U.S. Labor Department July 13th. Gasoline costs are leading the pack of consumer goods facing rising prices, but it’s [...]

Germany shut down the Nord Stream 1 Pipeline today for a pre-scheduled 10-day maintenance period. Whether or not Russian natural gas will resume westward flows to Germany after repairs are made is anybody’s [...]

Japanese society is reeling from the news that former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo had been assassinated. Political violence of this type is exceedingly rare in modern Japan, as are gun-related deaths. I will leave the [...]

I am happy to report that we have an update for those of you who have inquired about purchasing The End of the World is Just the Beginning internationally: it is now available in over a dozen countries [...]

A question I am often asked after presentations, or on Twitter, is one on the subject of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s removal. Is it a question of when or if? Why hasn’t it happened yet? Who would do [...]

Few industries are going to see as much upheaval in coming years as global agriculture. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the volatility of global fertilizer and fuel markets, shipping and transport challenges and more [...]

US bond rating service Moody’s announced that Russia was in default of its foreign debt payments yesterday, a first for Moscow since 1918. Unlike most countries who go into default, Russia has the money to pay its [...]

Beijing announced yesterday that it was extending its Zero COVID policy until 2027. This is a direct result of the Chinese government’s failure to develop an effective domestic vaccine, and its steadfast refusal to [...]

Many, many thanks to those of you who have helped make my new book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning, a New York Times best seller. As is typical with authors who make it onto the list, there is a sort of [...]

The nature of the economic system so many governments are attempting to grapple with right now is unprecedented in modern history. For much of the span of human history since industrialization, governments could [...]

The demographic pyramids below are from my new book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Civilization. I discuss global demographic trends, the impacts of societal aging and [...]

I decided to limit my harassment of everyone (and my staff) this past holiday weekend, but I did want to thank everyone for being so supportive of the new book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning. [...]

If you find scenarios like the one I discuss in the video below interesting, I discuss how changes in the global order impact several industries from insurance to manufacturing to finance to agriculture and energy and [...]

The Boomers are the largest generation the world has ever seen. And they’re getting ready to enter retirement en masse. This is going to have incredible impacts on global labor, capital and development. If you [...]

The Japanese yen is at its weakest point in two decades. A year ago, the dollar was worth 110 yen. Now it is worth 135. Japan’s central bank is increasingly hearing calls to hike up interest rates à la the Federal [...]

Today’s the day! It’s book release day. Those of you who have pre-ordered your copy of The End of the World Is Just the Beginning you should start receiving them today! Ditto for the digital and eBook [...]

Russian President Vladimir Putin has given another of his…heavy-on-the-revisionist-history speeches. This time, he categorized the Great Northern War–the 18th century conflict that saw the Tsardom of Russia [...]

In light of recent moves by the US to lift some targeted energy sanctions on Venezuela to help bolster energy sanctions against Russia, we are sharing an earlier video on the difficulty the Biden administration would [...]

In case you haven’t heard, my upcoming book The End of the World is Just the Beginning gets released this Tuesday, June 14. You can pre-order it here. A lot of my work, and my books up to this point, [...]

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release NEXT WEEK (!) on June 14. Immigrants and in-migration are always touchy topics. Allow [...]

Americans are currently struggling with inflation and certain categories, like fuel prices, get an outsized amount of attention. It makes sense. There are few products people buy as frequently that have as volatile a [...]

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with [...]

Nobody’s perfect.  And in this industry, I feel strongly that it’s as important to own up to your mistakes as to highlight your successful forecasts and analyses. In a previous mail out this week, we [...]

I’m re-sharing a couple of videos from early May to highlight a couple key trends coming to a head: the EU ban on Russian oil imports, and a continuing challenge of indemnification for ships carrying cargoes of [...]

Between the Ukraine war, supply chain shortages, energy shocks, and government policy that probably spent too much money for too long a period of time, Americans are feeling the pinch of ever-higher inflation on an [...]

At the outset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there was significant concern that China would follow with its own invasion of Taiwan. With both Moscow and Beijing moving to secure what they consider breakaway states [...]

The U.S. Federal Reserve is in the midst of raising interest rates. By raising the cost of borrowing and making debt (money) more expensive, you control spending thereby controlling inflation.  The United States is [...]

In the worlds of finance, trade, economies, currencies and energy there is a lot going on. We’ve a war in Ukraine that will likely generate the largest oil dislocation in modern history. The global [...]

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with [...]

Several signs point to THE possibility of Chinese officials instituting at least a partial lockdown of the northern port city of Tianjin as early as this weekend. The largest northern Chinese port, Tianjin is also a city [...]

Most NATO members have met Finland and Sweden’s joint application for membership with open enthusiasm. The US, UK, France; even the Italians and Greeks are cheering, in a rare moment of pan-European [...]

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with [...]

The Ukrainian military has been punching well above their weight, something I touched upon in an earlier video. The assessment of the Ukrainians and their success comes partly from Russia’s inability to [...]

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with [...]

How do we get to a world without Russian President Vladimir Putin?  The reality is that there’s no easy path to get there, despite what some US Senators or leaders within the European Union might want. There [...]

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with [...]

The Ukrainian military has enjoyed an outsized amount of success when it comes to successfully finding–and eliminating–a variety of high-value Russian targets. The Ukrainian military did not have a reputation [...]

Europe is moving rapidly toward enacting an embargo against Russian crude oil. One of the main enforcement mechanisms will likely be denying maritime insurance coverage to ships carrying Russian crude to European ports. [...]

The Russian military has abandoned any hope of local Ukrainians viewing them as welcome liberators or Slavic cousins. And so too has the Russian military abandoned any pretense of trying to limit civilian casualties. [...]

Moscow has begun limiting natural gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria as Russia seeks to increase energy pressure on Europe. Ostensibly these moves are to encourage European buyers of natural gas to pay their bills in [...]

Russia and its military have lagged considerably behind the Ukrainians in several categories: logistics, communications, and especially in metabolizing and deploying new technology, such as drones. It is especially in [...]

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with [...]

In many ways, Ukraine’s geography largely mimics that of the American Midwest: a broad swath of highly productive agricultural land with a largely navigable river running through it. In the United States, the [...]

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with [...]

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with info on how to [...]

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with info on how to [...]

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Civilization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with info on how to [...]

An official policy of neutrality – or at least, explicit unalignment – was once critical to the national security policies of Sweden and Finland. Not anymore. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused [...]

Ukrainian media reported sinking the flagship of the Russian Navy’s Black Sea fleet, the Moskva, April 13, following a direct hit by an indigenously produced Neptune anti-ship missile. After several hours of [...]

We are officially two months away from the release of my forthcoming fourth book The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Civilization. This book has been a long time coming. More than [...]

Shanghai – China’s largest city and financial center – has been under a severe lockdown since April 1st as Beijing seeks to contain a runaway outbreak of the Omicron (and Omicron BA.2) variant. [...]

The Biden Administration announced this morning that it was working with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to make changes to the laws regarding E15 fuel, or gasoline containing up to 15% ethanol. Retailers are [...]

The Russians are leaning on a tried and true mechanism of sanctioned economies: GOLD! I’ve heard from several corners that this somehow means the Russian ruble is now a gold-backed currency. This is simply not [...]

There has been a persistent argument made by Russia apologists – unwitting or otherwise – that Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine is the fault of the West. Or NATO. Or some combination, but with the United [...]

Russia is a resource superpower. We normally discuss Russia’s outsides role in global oil and gas markets–a topic we discussed at length in a previous webinar, along with Russia and Ukraine’s role in [...]

Polish Deputy Prime Minister (and former Prime Minister) Jaroslaw Kaczynski caught my attention over the weekend when he mentioned that Poland would be open to hosting not only American forces, but also US nuclear [...]

There has been much talk about how there are plenty of buyers for Russian oil – especially heavily discounted Russian oil – in absence of American and European buyers. The would-be buyers at the top of the [...]

Russia and Ukraine are key suppliers for two industrial inputs most of us really never think about: neon and palladium. Unless you’re involved in semiconductors or the manufacture of catalytic converters. And if [...]

Russia’s Wagner Group purports to be a “private security organization” – what you and I might otherwise call mercenaries. Plenty of groups like this exist around the world, but with an emphasis on [...]

Steel is produced from iron ore, but to get from one to the other the ore must first be purified into pig iron (aka crude iron). Enter Russia and Ukraine, who source three-fifths of globally exported pig iron. Throw in [...]

Parts of my work are, from my point of view, easy. I’ve always found reading a map to tease out military and economic potentials and trends to be equal parts engaging and…relaxing. Demographics? That’s just math. We know [...]

A mix of punitive sanctions and market forces is working to keep Russian energy exports out of global refineries and power plants, and ultimately in the ground as Moscow will have fewer markets willing (or able) to take [...]

I identified the likely challenges facing Russian oil production at the outset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine – chief among them Moscow’s inability to keep oil flowing in the absence of foreign investment [...]

We are awash in news reports that the Europeans are poised to follow the US in banning all Russian Energy imports.  Let me repeat: the Europeans are reportedly getting ready to ban imports from their largest [...]

I thought it would be helpful to collect our recent newsletters on the subject of Russia and Ukraine in a single place for easy reference. As a reminder, the Zeihan on Geopolitics newsletter is free, and a searchable [...]

This newsletter is an adapted excerpt from Peter’s upcoming book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning. Think the Europeans will need to get by without Russian crude? You are 100% correct. But you are [...]

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued an early warning to foreign powers at the outset of his invasion of Ukraine: Russia’s considerable nuclear arsenal was ready to deliver a crushing blow against anyone [...]

Apologies to all for having not written much in the past three weeks. The Ukraine War has been unfolding with such unforgiving speed and complexity that I’ve just not had time. While the pace hasn’t exactly slowed, the [...]

Demographics is one of the cornerstones of how we understand the world here at Zeihan on Geopolitics. Few countries have had as difficult a series of demographic challenges as the Russians. Beginning with World War I, [...]

Please join us today, March 11, for our webinar and Q&A session on the impacts of the Ukraine War and Russian sanctions on global agricultural markets.  Fertilizers, fuels, feed grain and cheap [...]

The Biden administration is shopping around with some less than savory potential partners in order to lessen the blow of energy sanctions against Russia. Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Iran – all well known and fairly [...]

Below is one of my favorite (if incredibly depressing) graphics from our most recent book, Disunited Nations. Before Africa began the industrialization process, only the best lands on the continent were under [...]

Russia is finding it increasingly difficult to sell its oil in Europe and other traditional markets, as a mixture of sanctions, market pressures and consumer choice are shifting against Moscow. It’s not that Russia [...]

The London Metals Exchange halted nickel trades today after prices approximately tripled. Nickel is a metal that surrounds us in our daily lives, primarily as an alloy component in stainless steel: bridges, cutlery, [...]

Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine is now in its second week. The rage that swept the Western world — particularly acute in Europe — has not abated, with all talk about how to punish Moscow more thoroughly. [...]

Much of the current focus on the Ukraine war is currently on the shelling of the major urban centers of Kharkiv and Kyiv. And from a political and humanitarian perspective, that certainly makes sense.  But there is [...]

Few things in are more complex than energy logistics, and the world is about to get a masterclass. Different crude grades with different chemical make-ups with different reliabilities lead to different refining [...]

Russia’s abundance of flat, cool-temperate land doesn’t provide much in terms of defensible geography. But it is good for growing grain, particularly wheat. Russia’s place in global grain markets is [...]

Nowhere on earth boasts the sheer volume of cross-border hydrocarbon infrastructure as we see between Russia and its European neighbors. Or between Russia and the heart of the EU. Or between Russia and the bulk of NATO. [...]

This is a welcome and a bit of a (re-)introduction of who I am and what we do here at ZoG for the new followers and newsletter subscribers who have joined us over the past week since Russian began their invasion of [...]

The last time wheat exports from the former Soviet space were limited, it was due to a poor Siberian harvest in 2010. Within a few months wheat prices doubled globally, tripling in the markets heavily dependent upon [...]

The ins and outs of the major oil and natural gas suppliers is a favorite topic of ours here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, and it forms a cornerstone of our expertise; my team and I have decades of combined [...]

I thought it would be helpful to collect our recent newsletters on the subject of Russia and Ukraine in a single place for easy reference. As a reminder, the Zeihan on Geopolitics newsletter is free, and a searchable [...]

For those of you who have read my second book, The Absent Superpower, recent events in Ukraine should not come as a surprise. Chapter 6, The Twilight War, lays out how Russian geography and demographic [...]

Russia’s months-long build up of troops along the Ukrainian border is starting Russia has followed through with its months-long threats of invasion of Now that the question of a Russian invasion of Ukraine has [...]

Russia’s months-long build up of troops along the Ukrainian border is starting Russia has followed through with its months-long threats of invasion of Ukraine. The Russian military has not focused on securing the [...]

In a public broadcast late February 21 (local time), Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a lengthy, moody speech about the status of relations between Russia and its neighbor, Ukraine. Putin in essence declared a [...]

The United States Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates in 2022. The question is not longer one of “if” or “when,” but how frequently and by how much. The implications [...]

Russia’s months-long build up of troops along the Ukrainian border is starting to yield tangible results… though perhaps not in the way that Moscow originally intended. Rather than successfully convincing [...]

Russia has maintained a threatening posture against Ukraine, including maintaining approximately 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border. The United States and the United Kingdom have taken the lead in crafting a set of [...]

I’m sure a lot of you have noticed that I haven’t mentioned much at all about the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. It really boils down to one factor: reinfection. Coronavirus is fast. With the original [...]

Russian-led forces entered Kazakhstan today, under the guise of a Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) peacekeeping mission. The former Soviet state and significant oil producer has seen several days of [...]

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel was wildly successful at maintaining a German–and European–status quo nearly two decades. While her tenure will almost assuredly be remembered as the Golden Age of a [...]

All anyone can talk about in Europe these days is Russia. Russia is constricting natural gas flows to Europe in order to drive energy prices higher and extract geopolitical concessions. Russia is using irregular state [...]

Like their parents, the American Millennial cohort is defined by their size. Making up a larger share of the US population than either the preceding (and dare I say, cooler?) Gen X and younger Gen Z, they are having [...]

Demographics are at the core of what we do here at Zeihan on Geopolitics. More than just a count of population, demographic data–often expressed as a pyramid-shaped graph–can deliver a wealth of information [...]

As we now enter the third year of the ongoing COVID pandemic, we have had an evolution in how countries–especially in East Asia–react to outbreaks. Gone are the days of national lockdowns, and instead [...]

Join Peter Zeihan today, December 1, for the third in a three-part series on the here, now, and soon-to-be of the American and global economies. In Part III: The Face of Inflation we’ll be diving into not [...]

A lot of people are talking about how we’re currently facing the highest inflation levels in decades. Few are talking about how inflation–a bugbear that stalked the US economy for decades until the [...]

Gasoline costs. Housing costs. Food costs. Consumer goods costs. They are all going up. The inflation is real and it is only “transitory” if by “transitory” you are measuring time in years. The real nut of the [...]

On November 18 news leaked out of Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, China and India that the Americans have approached pretty much every country that matters about a joint, simultaneous release of oil from each country that [...]

Join Peter Zeihan today, November 19 for the second in a three-part series on the here, now, and soon-to-be of the American and global economies. Part II: Supply Chains No More will focus exclusively on global [...]

I look at a lot of charts, so you don’t have to. But here’s one I need to share. It’s a partial breakdown of product prices by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, that’s the group of wonks who tell us (formally) what [...]

You’d be forgiven if you though the biggest challenges facing the US supply chain was its overreliance on the state of California. While some 40% of US containerized imports come through the ports of Los Angeles [...]

The American economy faces shortages of every conceivable product, but few widgets have captured the public imagination as much as semiconductors. Ubiquitous and powerful, these little silicon bits are what separates the [...]

Peter’s back from chatting with dozens of firms across the manufacturing, finance and agricultural space and one topic kept popping up: what’s up with COVID vaccine mandates? The answer — from the business [...]

Anyone try to buy anything recently? Like, anything? Throughout northern Mexico, parking lots full of finished automobiles (that are just waiting for a few semiconductors) have become common. Year-on-year prices for used [...]

If in recent weeks you’ve gone to a restaurant or boarded a plane of shopped in a store or remodeled your house or been in a hospital or done anything that Today, the United States faces its tightest-ever labor force. It [...]

If in recent weeks you’ve gone to a restaurant or boarded a plane of shopped in a store or remodeled your house or been in a hospital or done anything that requires a degree of assistance from a warm body, you’ve noticed [...]

There are perennial discussions about water being the only resource that truly matters, and many questions that come my way about water wars of the future.  There’s something to this, after all. We need [...]

The French are continuing to make their outrage over last week’s AUKUS submarine deal—and the subsequent cancellation of a pending Franco-Australian submarine supply deal—plain for all to see. IIn addition to withdrawing [...]

The United States and United Kingdom have shouldered out the French in a deal to supply submarines to Australia. And not just any submarines, potentially nuclear–powered submarines.  France was [...]

So, what keeps me up at night? The current global semiconductor supply chain. Distinct capabilities exist in separate supply chains and manufacturing bases—lower end supply from China, higher-end chips from places like [...]

Concerns are rising over Chinese dominance in the realm of rare earths metals processing. This is a problem that I spend a lot of time never worrying about.  Despite their name, rare earths aren’t all that [...]

Speculation over Afghanistan’s potential mineral wealth is just that–speculation. What we do know about the hard reality of the country’s geography, infrastructure and development profile [...]

The seven-day moving average for new COVID deaths in the United States is back up above 1,000 – a figure the Americans have not suffered since before COVID vaccines became widely available back in April. To that [...]

Hurricane Ida made landfall in southern Louisiana as a Category 4 storm on August 29. In its wake it left a trail of damage that Americans living on the Gulf and Atlantic coasts have found depressingly familiar. Total [...]

Some questions I’ve been asked about as of late have been on the topic of what technologies do I see that could move the needle on some of the more… dire forecasts that I’ve made. Some of the most impactful are [...]

The challenges of the United States’ Afghan withdrawal have caused many to question Washington’s commitments to its allies and others who have found themselves under the American security blanket. The issue of US [...]

I’ve been asked several times since my last dispatch whether or not I think FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine is going to move the needle for the anti-vax crowd. Unlikely. If you thought the COVID-19 vaccines were [...]

News arrives a little more slowly here in northern Iceland. But as the details of the horrific attack against US service members and Afghan nationals came in across my phone, so too did many arguments that these are [...]

Greetings from Iceland! With the FDA giving Pfizer’s Comirnaty (the two-shot regimen formerly known as the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine), it’s important to note what this does and does not mean for the [...]

The United States is likely to experience economic growth even as the Delta variant of the coronavirus continues its spread through unvaccinated populations. We should not overlook that qualifier; the vast majority of [...]

On New Years Eve, just minutes before the dawn of 1992, the Soviet flag was lowered from the Kremlin for the last time. Arguably the Cold War had been over for a few years already. Glasnost and perestroika had defanged [...]

The United States is seeing a second summer of rising COVID cases, though this year’s surge–and accompanying COVID-related deaths and hospitalizations–are largely avoidable. The US is in a near unheard [...]

The world that we’re entering is fundamentally different than where we’ve been. The modern period we live in began with Columbus. It has been one of “more:”–near unending growth (population, [...]

A combination of factors have workers feeling more confident in looking for better-paying jobs (or at least, less willing to work ones they don’t like for at-or-near minimum wage). While things may seem bleak now [...]

Mexicans went to the polls over the weekend. Preliminary results indicate that while incumbent president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s (better known as AMLO) MORENA coalition will maintain a majority in [...]

The United States has made remarkable progress in vaccinating large swathes of its population since the beginning of the year. Despite near walk-in availability of vaccines across the country, however, a significant [...]

I’m going to attempt the impossible with this one: making economics not necessarily fun, but painfully relevant to someone who cannot work an Excel document. Here goes: The United States is experiencing the fastest [...]

Bit by bit we are getting back to normal. Over half of the American adult population is now vaccinated, and vaccines will soon be available in most locations on a walk-in basis. At current rates, I have little doubt all [...]

On March 2 the Biden administration announced a vaccine manufacturing partnership between two of the largest and most successful drug manufacturers in the United States: Johnson & Johnson and Merck. Less than a week [...]

The United States approved a third COVID-19 vaccine—the latest from Johnson and Johnson—for use, offering up millions of more doses for Americans. As I stated in my video yesterday, vaccines should be available on demand [...]

Here’s some good news for a change: the US has approved its third vaccine option–Johnson and Johnson’s single-dose shot–even as total daily vaccinations with the two-shot Moderna and Pfizer [...]

In the wee hours of February 26, American military forces in the Middle East carried out a handful of air strikes against Iranian paramilitary forces in Syria. To my knowledge it represents the first such public strike [...]

I moved from Austin to Denver just under two years ago. Austin is a great city. Young, hip, great food, lots of outdoorsy stuff. But most of my free time is in the summer. So, I’d spend the fall, winter and spring [...]

I don’t see China the way most do. Where others see a rising naval power, I see a trapped coastal fleet incapable of projecting power, much less patrolling its far-flung economic interests. Where others [...]

The second major international issue facing the incoming Joe Biden administration is that never-ending joy, the problem that just keeps on giving: the Middle East. If there is one thing most Americans agree on in [...]

After sketching out what was intended to be the final installment of this series, I realized the world was in a lot more trouble than I had thought. So, the “Crisis List” installment is going to be a whole [...]

Much of current media coverage of the corona virus is focusing on the issue of variants of SARS-COV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Here in the United States, we’re currently in a race against time in our attempts to [...]

Let’s begin with the bad news. The United States has not seen any meaningful expansion of coronavirus testing since the November 2020 fall-off (see the stall in the purple graph below). Such suggests the United [...]

My original plan (such as it was) for this series was to use Part V to break down the foreign crises the Biden administration will face in his freshman year. We’ll still get to that (stay tuned for Part VI), [...]

Normally when I give presentations, I arrange my material based on the audience’s cultural norms. Americans are manic-depressive, so I normally start with the good news to snap them away from obsessing about [...]

No political party of consequence in the United States has ever been single-issue. American electoral laws dictate that whoever gets one more vote than the next guy gets the seat, pushing political parties to throw as [...]

Starting within minutes of the January 6 riots, a variety of tech platforms began blocking posts by President Donald Trump. Within three days nearly all platforms – a list which includes Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, [...]

Let me start of by saying that in an advanced democracy like the United States, political violence must never be tolerated. We have institutions and courts and elections expressly to manage our differences and debates. [...]

COVID-19’s Thanksgiving surge is upon us. We’re now facing record cases, hospitalizations and deaths and will continue at least through the end of January 2021. But there is some very good news out there as [...]

It is a rare bit of good news we have to share in general, and especially in 2020, so we’re taking it! Less than a year after the broader world found out about an emerging new coronavirus epidemic in Wuhan we now [...]

Part I of this newsletter published a week ago, before we had enough U.S. states reporting election results to call the race. Now, barring something truly odd, Joe Biden has won a more than sufficient number of states to [...]

So…we had an election. It has gone down to the wire. At the time of this writing mid-day November 4 the votes are still being counted. America’s politics have significantly de-matured since the contested election [...]

In my latest dispatch, I discuss the resources I look at when analyzing the current snapshots of where we are in the corona pandemic, as well as where I think we’re headed this Fall and beyond. The current wave has [...]

The previous two dispatches touched on the best-case scenario and the “not good” scenario, and why both indicate the public health response and the economic recovery can’t even begin [...]

There are many reasons why we should not assume a vaccine will return life to normal. I discussed some of these in the first part of this dispatch on the best-case scenario. But it is more complicated than that. For part [...]

Even in the best case scenario, a coronavirus vaccine can’t be rolled out fully to the general American population until the second quarter of 2021. But that only marks the beginning of the end. If you enjoy our [...]

The pullout of US troops in the Middle East is likely to continue after November’s presidential election. We’re already seeing significant changes in how the Middle East works, including what sorts of antics [...]

The results of the November presidential election are unlikely to change the trajectory of US-Chinese relations over the past decade. But Beijing’s biggest challenges don’t lie with the US. As the Chinese [...]

Russia and Europe are tilting toward confrontation. The European defense posture for the past 70+ years has been predicated on NATO–a fancy acronym for “the United States is our security guarantor.”  [...]

Mountain living can be…challenging. In the first of a series of video dispatches this week, I make lemons from lemonade and discuss the looming international challenges facing the American presidency, no matter who [...]

I normally try to stay out of American politics. My work is in the wider world, the American system is remarkably stable and self-regulating, and if I’m to be completely honest, making domestic political forecasts [...]

Last week the American ambassador to China, Terry Branstad, attempted to publish an op-ed with his assessment of American-Chinese relations. The Chinese Communist Part summarily squashed it, banning the op-ed in all [...]

Thursday, August 13 the Trump administration released a series of breathless communiques proclaiming the onset of formal peace and diplomatic recognition between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. Shortly thereafter [...]

The coronavirus epidemic in the United States continues to accelerate. Much of the recent news has been about ongoing and unprecedented caseload increases in the large states of California, Texas and Florida. While I [...]

The coronavirus epidemic in the United States continues to accelerate. Much of the recent news has been about ongoing and unprecedented caseload increases in the large states of California, Texas and Florida, which [...]

Getting reliable oil data on any country outside the United States is very nearly an exercise in futility. Even a country with “good” data like the United States sources that data from a half dozen [...]

You can also read the State of the Pandemic series’ take on the United States, Latin America, the Persian Gulf, East Asia, Europe, and the BRICS.  The United States is in for a [...]

You can also read the State of the Pandemic series’ take on the United States, Latin America, the Persian Gulf, East Asia, and Europe.  Just a decade ago, the financial world was abuzz discussing the future of the [...]

You can also read the State of the Pandemic series’ take on the United States, Latin America, the Persian Gulf, East Asia and the BRICS.  There is no such thing as “Europe.” Yes, there’s this [...]

You can also read the State of the Pandemic series’ take on the United States, Latin America, the Persian Gulf, East Asia, and the BRICS.  Some good news: Melissa Taylor (ZoG’s Director of Research) has [...]

You can also read the State of the Pandemic series’ take on the United States, Latin America, East Asia, Europe, and the BRICS. .  Outside of China, Iran was the world’s first significant coronavirus epicenter, and [...]

Let’s rile everyone up with an uncomfortable statement: Mexico should be a failed state. The issue isn’t cultural, political, or policy-driven, but rather, geographical. Most powers of significance share two geographic [...]

This is the second in a series of newsletters addressing the state of the COVID-19 pandemic around the world. Other articles in the series cover Latin America, the Persian Gulf, East Asia, Europe, and the BRICS.  Let me [...]

This is the first in a series of newsletters addressing the state of the COVID-19 pandemic around the world. Other articles in the series cover the United States, the Persian Gulf, East Asia, Europe, and the BRICS.  For [...]

The past few several weeks have been busy for the Europeans, easily generating more events of consequence than at any time since at least the 2007 financial crisis. There is no specific trigger event here that makes much [...]

Coronavirus is primarily a respiratory ailment primarily spread by exhaled droplets from coughs or simple breathing, which is why masks are so effective at preventing an infected individual from spreading it. This [...]

Thank you to all of you who attended yesterday’s webinar! We wanted to provide the rest of you with the opportunity to watch. Just click this link, provide a few details, and enjoy. In the coming months, my team [...]

Today’s U.S. coronavirus case update is full of good, and bad, news. First the good. American testing capacity continues to increase, having reached a sustainable level in excess of 300,000 per day. Having being stuck [...]

So, good news, we’ve surmounted some technical difficulties and have been able to substantially expand our seats at the upcoming May 19 videoconference. It will be a once-around-the world examination of where we stand in [...]

Read Part 1 and Part 2 The Chinese are intentionally torching their diplomatic relationships with the wider world. The question is why? The short version is that China’s spasming belligerency is a sign not of confidence [...]

Read Part 1 and Part 3 The propaganda out of China of late has been…notable. Beijing has accused the French of using their nursing homes as death camps, has blamed Italy for being the source of the coronavirus (at the [...]

Read Part 2 and Part 3 The past few weeks have been…eventful. I make my living anticipating and explaining and projecting change, with an unfortunate emphasis on destabilizing and disintegrative change. Pre-coronavirus [...]

In the past five weeks the United States has thrown $3 trillion in new government spending at coronavirus-related bailouts, relief and economic stimulus. In total the US has already spent more on [...]