*This video was recorded last week, prior to Peter departing on his backpacking trip.
The conflict in Gaza has been raging on for nearly 300 days, and there is no end in sight. However, Israel is heavily reliant upon American tech and weapons and that relationship could be changing.
The political situation in Israel is complex. As the country grows more conservative and reactionary, tensions between the three largest population groups are rising. These groups are the Palestinians, secular Jews, and the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi).
The Haredi are gaining influence and have some hardline policies against Palestinians. In 25 years, their voting power will rival that of secular Jews and Israeli policies will be drastically impacted.
This shift in local politics is amplified by the shift in international relations with the Americans. The US remains a strong supporter of Israel, but shifting demographics and growing criticisms of Israeli practices in this war indicate that this could change in the coming decades.
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Hey everybody, Peter Zeihan here. Today we’re going to talk about Israel. There is no reason to expect the Gaza war to end anytime soon. And while both Israel and Hezbollah really don’t want to have a military conflict, there are some factors that are pushing them more in each other’s face. So, we can’t rule out a specific war there.
But what this does is keep Israel top of mind for a lot of American security planners, especially for the White House, because at the end of the day, Israel relies on American tech transfer and weapon procurement in order to keep its own security in order. And the question is whether or not that is in a degree of danger.
Let me cut to the chase and say that the short answer is no, for now. There are two issues that kind of define this problem. The first is that the political evolution of Israel is towards a much more stodgy, reactionary approach to not just politics, but security.
If you consider Israel and the Palestinian territories as a single unit, there are three forces in play. The first, of course, is the Palestinians themselves, who are capable of resistance, but not in a traditional manner. What we saw back in October with the terror assaults, that’s about the most they can hope for.
There are no anti-tank rockets, no air forces, no tanks. So, from a security point of view, this is a pain and tragic, but it’s not a traditional state challenge. It is an ongoing, grinding issue of occupation and resistance that will always be there in the background. The second group are the Jews, specifically the secular Jews, who have controlled the governing system of Israel for the last 75 years.
Now, these, of course, break into different groups with different politics, just like any other country. But ultimately, they’re all drawn from a similar political stock, if you will. The third group, the one that is disrupting this balance, if that’s the right word, are the Haredi, the ultra-Orthodox, who are much more conservative and, for the most part, not integrated into Israeli life.
Until very recently, they were not even contributing to the military. We’ve recently had a change in law there, which we will link to that piece and the implications of it here. Anyway, this is a group that basically lives on the government dole and does what their rabbis tell them to do. It’s not that simple—don’t send me hate mail for that statement—but these are people who are not as sophisticated as the secular Jewish population.
And they have some very, very, very strong opinions on what should be done to and about the Palestinians. Much more hawkish, but they haven’t really contributed to the assets that are necessary to carry out that policy because they pay very little taxes. Most of them haven’t served in the military, and yet they want a very hardline response.
Well, for the last couple of decades, this ultra-Orthodox coalition has been a bigger and bigger factor in internal Israeli politics and has been the kingmaker in any number of governments, including the current one. Because they’re basically paid to exist by the state, their numbers are growing very rapidly, and we’re going to need a position within the next 25 years where they are going to be neck and neck in terms of voting power with the traditional secular Jews.
That transition from here to there is going to generate a very different set of policy options in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. So, the question is, how does this relate to the Americans? Well, in the short term, it really doesn’t. Donald Trump, when he was president, was very pro-Israeli, very anti-Palestinian. His policies reflected that, and the folks in charge of the Israeli government were very supportive of that.
Under Biden, there’s been a little bit more oblique criticism. The Palestinians, of course, would disagree with that assessment. But Biden is basically starting to call a spade a spade and has said that some of the things that the Orthodox-tinged government in Israel is doing are perhaps not legal internationally and border on, from time to time, a little bit genocidal. At times, that criticism has boiled up in international affairs and actually affected Israel’s ability to access American weapons.
It hasn’t gotten to a break point, because one of the advantages in the United States of having a president who’s older than dust is he remembers when the Jewish state was formed, which means he remembers personally the Holocaust. He remembers Abraham, and Isaac, and all the rest. So, he knows that in the long sweep of history, what’s going on right now is a bit of a bump.
But Biden will not be there forever. Trump will not be there forever. And we’re having a demographic shift in the United States as well. In Israel, right now in 2024, the majority of America’s baby boomers, who are probably the most pro-Israel generation we have, have already retired. Over that same transition period, while the ultra-Orthodox sects are going to rise to power in Israel, America’s baby boomers are going to die out.
And the younger generation coming up, the Zoomers and, to a lesser degree, the millennials, are not nearly as evenhanded when it comes to Israel versus the Palestinians. So, demographics are absolutely against Israel on this topic. But never forget that demographics are like a glacier; they move slowly. They don’t matter until the day they do. We’re not going to hit that day in the next four years, but we will hit it in the next four decades.
So, for now, the Israeli government, regardless of its makeup, can be assured of long-term American support. But long-term does not mean permanent.
