Starlink cut service to Russian forces along the front line, leaving these troops largely isolated. Ukraine has taken advantage of the situation by launching localized offensives and reclaiming a nice chunk of land.
The Ukrainians remain outnumbered. However, since Russian units are scattered, isolated, and unable to communicate, they are left vulnerable. So, organized Ukrainian offensives are finding success…for now.
The Russians will likely adapt, or the Ukrainians will come face-to-face with entrenched units and minefields, but Ukraine has regained the offensive momentum for the time being.
Hey all, Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from Colorado. Today is the 18th of February, and the news is a significant change in the battlefield in Ukraine. We did a video talking about how Starlink had been unofficially siding with the Russians in many ways until they got caught out and basically accused of several dozen counts of second degree murder.
And so they have cut off, connections to their Starlink receivers throughout the front region, this time emphasizing the Russian side of the operation. And what we’ve discovered in the last 96 hours is that the Russian forces in the area were completely dependent upon Starlink for communication among themselves, and that communication is functionally stopped. Now, keep in mind that drones today are either first person drones that can be jammed or on a, tether, a fiber optic tether that has a limited range.
And so the best way to jam is to have an electronic warfare unit in Ukraine needs to become the best in the world. That by far, far better than the United States. Which means that normal types of radio communications simply don’t work if you’re relatively close to the front. And now the Russians have been cut off completely.
And even though the Ukrainians are outmanned and outgunned, they have gone on the offensive and captured about 50mi² over the course of the last several days. I doubt it’ll last. It’s only a matter of time before the Russians come up with backup plans, or the Ukrainians hit those massive minefields that stopped their assaults a couple of years ago.
But it does allow, in the short term at least, the Ukrainians could, to completely liquidate Russian positions while on the offensive. Normally, you only attack and location if you enjoy about a 3 to 1 ratio. In vantage in troop numbers. The Ukrainians are doing it with far less than that, sometimes even being outnumbered. But because they’re able to isolate the Russian forces in detail, they’re able to completely wipe them out.
Keep in mind that over the course of the last year, we’ve seen the Russian tactics change considerably. So instead of big massed assaults, assaulting, Russian positions, they sneak in 2 or 3 at a time and pepper the area through until a few of them survive. And then reinforcements can come in. That means you’ve got lots, dozens, hundreds, maybe thousands of little spots where there’s two, three, 4 or 5, ten Russians holding the position and against a coordinated Ukrainian attack that still enjoys drones and communications.
They don’t have much of a chance at all. So I doubt this will last very long. But for the moment, the Ukrainians are pushing forward in a way that they haven’t been able to for a couple of years, and their critics said was never possible again. But here we are.
