The idea of sleeper agents being embedded in the U.S. is largely unrealistic. In contrast, the far more realistic threats that should concern you are short-term operatives carrying out intelligence-gathering or financial activities.
The Hollywood special “sleeper cells” are only worth the investment for major assassinations or mass-casualty events, not routine sabotage or espionage. Whereas, planting foreign intelligence operatives through legal means and for shorter periods makes much more sense. However, the U.S. can typically detect this kind of thing through its vast and interconnected signal detection network.
Hey all. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Colorado. Today we’re taking a question from the Patreon page. Specifically, what with everything that’s going on in the world today, with all the changes the United States involved in the Middle East, the Russians literally on the warpath, the Iranians now having ample reason to hate the United States for fresh reasons. And the Chinese, of course, always pushing, pushing, pushing.
Do I worry at all about things like sleeper agents? Let’s clarify what most people mean by sleeper agents before I answer that. So the idea is you have some highly trained operatives that go into an enemy state, establish themselves as locals, get jobs, raise families, buy homes, and live among the target population for years while they do research towards a specific end tax to justify the investment.
The reason I don’t worry about sleeper cells is that specific thing towards an end task to justify the investment. Having somebody with a deep skill set in Intel is one of the most expensive things that you can do. It’s like astronauts, F-35 pilots and then the high end spies. So if you’re going to put them somewhere where for years you’re not going to get a payback, you’re talking about having to have a payback on the backside.
That is on the scale of assassinating somebody like the president or causing mass casualties, simply getting in and stealing a piece of technology or blowing up a pipeline or something is not going to cut it. So no, this is not something I worry about. Does that mean I’m not worried about us, the United States being penetrated by foreign intelligence?
Totally different topic. The United States is a free society. The United States allows people to fly in with limited background checks. And if you’re going to have an Intel system that wants to flood your country with foreign operatives, you know, student visas, for example, is a very easy to get way to get in. That’s how some of the nine over 11 attackers got in, for example.
But that’s a very different sort of operation. Those are operators that would be in the United States, people who are operational who have specific tasks. So, for example, in the past, the Russians, both during the Cold War and more recently in the post-Cold War era, have sent dozens of people into the United States to gather information from wherever they can.
It’s not a sleeper unit. That’s somebody who’s actively reporting. And it’s that sort of act of reporting that U.S. Intel signals intelligence in particular, is very, very good at rooting out. And ultimately, we did Hezbollah. You know, the group in Lebanon has sent people here primarily to love this, buy cigarettes. They bought them in one state. They sold them in another state, set up a little smuggling system within the United States to take advantage of the difference excise taxes. then sent the money home. They also accrued equipment that they were going to send home. But that sort of activity do it in bulk enough to generate money. That is the sort of thing that also tends to pop up on the radar of law enforcement, right down to the local level. The bottom line is, while we may have a free society, we’re still an information society.
And because we have local law enforcement, state law enforcement, federal law enforcement, and then regulators at every level for everything means it’s really hard to establish some sort of like deep root into the American system to carry out some hypothetical attack. So while we have a lot of operational folks and there are spies in the United States and have been spies, we’ve never had anything that kind of fits the generic term of sleeper cell.
So for sleeper cells is really tends to be restricted to to low end and really not particularly realistic fiction. This is not something I lose any sleep about. Which isn’t to say that I don’t lose sleep.
