Global Energy at the End of the World

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with info on how to preorder.

Former Soviet states supply over 14 percent of the world’s energy. In this graphic from my new book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning, I ask the question: how long can former Soviet Union countries’ oil production last without Western technological assistance? Russia has invaded Ukraine and, just like that, we are going to find out the answer. With both Western oil majors and service companies heading for the door, we are already seeing lowered oil production. At the time of writing, the International Energy Agency forecasts that from May, nearly 3 million barrels a day in Russian production will be turned off.
With Russia’s production dimming, the world will look to the Persian Gulf for more oil and gas. Turning to the Persian Gulf, however, is simply swapping one conflict zone for another. Four-fifths of the Persian Gulf’s supply transits the Strait of Hormuz to reach its destination. Piracy can always be an issue. High food and agricultural input costs increase the possibility of social unrest in the region. In short, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine further destabilized an already unstable market.
As you can see, NAFTA supplies more gas and oil than it consumes, which is the ideal scenario. On the other hand, Europe, excluding the former Soviet states, cannot domestically satisfy its energy needs and is forced to rely on increasingly unstable import sources. Northeast Asia is in the same, if not more dire, boat. The EU at least has navies large enough to go out and secure its own oil. In Northeast Asia, only Japan has this capability.
To learn more on this topic make sure to look out for my upcoming book, which will be released June 14. We encourage those who can to preorder by clicking on the link below.

We will continue to post our analysis and updates on this and other topics related to the Ukraine War. This newsletter and its affiliated videologues are, and always will be, free. New subscribers can sign up here.
Finally, a reminder:
Russia’s strategic shift from thunder runs to a civilian obliteration has already forced ten million Ukrainians from their homes, with nearly four million now living in limbo in foreign lands. All proceeds from all formats of all of our previous books are being donated to the Afya Foundation, a charity which provides medical assistance to refugees from the Ukraine War. The buttons below will direct you to our purchase pages where you can both find out a bit more about each book, as well as select purchase options ranging from e-services to your local bookstore.

Start typing and press Enter to search


Get the latest in analysis, foreign policy, economics, and world events directly from Zeihan
Only insight. No spam.