I’m re-sharing a couple of videos from early May to highlight a couple key trends coming to a head: the EU ban on Russian oil imports, and a continuing challenge of indemnification for ships carrying cargoes of Russian goods–oil, stolen Ukrainian grain, etc.
On the first, it’s taken Europeans months to hammer out an agreement and a timeline–with plenty of caveats–but replacing your largest oil supplier overnight is a considerable feat. But EU leaders came out over the weekend announcing that a general framework had been reached, seeing most of the EU taper off of Russian oil by year’s end. One of the biggest exemptions is Russian crude delivered by pipeline, a necessary boon for landlocked importers like Hungary, and how Russia delivers a third of its oil to Europe.
While it’s easy to be cynical, we should not gloss over the fact that over the next several months the world’s largest economic bloc will be scaling down nearly 70% of its primary fuel source. Moscow is already adding European nations to its “do not sell list,” with the Netherlands joining Finland, Bulgaria and Poland in having to seek workarounds in accessing piped Russian natural gas deliveries. The Dutch have one of Europe’s largest LNG import terminals, and there is a lot of interconnected gas infrastructure to keep supplies moving around in the meantime, but the writing is on the wall.
For now.
The EU’s largest customers of Russian energy, Germany and Turkey, will the be ones to watch here. German corporations and labor unions remain opposed to a full German embargo of Russian natural gas and the Turks… well, when it comes to NATO and EU directives and sanctions packages, the Turks are going to do what’s best for Turkey.
Which makes the increasingly difficult time Russian cargoes are having all the more interesting. Private insurance companies, crews, captains, and port workers are simply refusing to cover, load, unload, and give harbor to Russian ships and Russian goods. While the EU is putting together another (the sixth!) sanctions package that will touch on some of these issues, the global shipping industry has shown a remarkable willingness to self-police and oppose Russian participation in regional and global shipping markets. China and India may continue to buy Russian crude (for now), but they’re doing so with state-owned ships and with state-backed insurers underwriting everything. Both economies are far too large to handle all of their goods trade in such a matter, however, and it will be interesting to see if their purchases of heavily-discounted Russian crude oil will be met with any market-driven consequences from the shipping industry.
We invite those of you who are interested to join us for our upcoming webinar, Inflation: Navigating the New Normal, on June 8th. More information at the sign up link below. Unable to attend the webinar live? No problem. All paid registrants and attendees will be able to access a recording of the presentation as well as a PDF of presentation materials.
[mk_button dimension=”outline” corner_style=”rounded” size=”large” letter_spacing=”1″ url=”https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_BJ-xzygVT4GQq4A5O_t_6g” align=”center” fullwidth=”true” margin_top=”25″ margin_bottom=”45″ outline_skin=”custom” outline_active_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_active_text_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_hover_bg_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_hover_color=”#ffffff”]CLICK TO SIGN UP FOR OUR UPCOMING WEBINAR: Inflation: Navigating the New Normal[/mk_button]
Having difficulty keeping up with the chaotic and quickly-changing landscape of Russia sanctions and commodities markets?
We have been offering a series of in-depth presentations on the global impacts of the Ukraine war on various industries.
So far, we’ve tackled the challenges facing energy, agriculture, and industrial materials. You can purchase access to the recordings of both of these webinars via the buttons below:
[mk_button dimension=”outline” corner_style=”rounded” size=”large” letter_spacing=”1″ url=”https://zeihan-on-geopolitics.myshopify.com/products/webinar-the-ukraine-war-industrial-materials-edition” align=”center” fullwidth=”true” margin_top=”65″ margin_bottom=”25″ outline_skin=”custom” outline_active_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_active_text_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_hover_bg_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_hover_color=”#ffffff”]PURCHASE ACCESS FOR “THE UKRAINE WAR: INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS EDITION”[/mk_button]
[mk_button dimension=”outline” corner_style=”rounded” size=”large” letter_spacing=”1″ url=”https://zeihan-on-geopolitics.myshopify.com/products/webinar-the-ukraine-war-agriculture-edition” align=”center” fullwidth=”true” margin_top=”25″ margin_bottom=”25″ outline_skin=”custom” outline_active_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_active_text_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_hover_bg_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_hover_color=”#ffffff”]PURCHASE ACCESS FOR “THE UKRAINE WAR: AGRICULTURE EDITION”[/mk_button]
[mk_button dimension=”outline” corner_style=”rounded” size=”large” letter_spacing=”1″ url=”https://zeihan-on-geopolitics.myshopify.com/products/the-ukraine-war-energy-edition” align=”center” fullwidth=”true” margin_top=”25″ margin_bottom=”65″ outline_skin=”custom” outline_active_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_active_text_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_hover_bg_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_hover_color=”#ffffff”]PURCHASE ACCESS FOR “THE UKRAINE WAR: ENERGY EDITION”[/mk_button]
We will continue to post our analysis and updates on this and other topics related to the Ukraine War. This newsletter and its affiliated videologues are, and always will be, free. New subscribers can sign up here.
Finally, a reminder:
Russia’s strategic shift from thunder runs to a civilian obliteration has already forced ten million Ukrainians from their homes, with nearly four million now living in limbo in foreign lands. All proceeds from all formats of all of our previous books are being donated to the Afya Foundation, a charity which provides medical assistance to refugees from the Ukraine War. The buttons below will direct you to our purchase pages where you can both find out a bit more about each book, as well as select purchase options ranging from e-services to your local bookstore.
[mk_button dimension=”outline” corner_style=”rounded” size=”large” letter_spacing=”1″ url=”https://smile.amazon.com/hz/wishlist/ls/1PRC3Y6QMPST8/ref=nav_wishlist_lists_2?sa-no-redirect=1″ align=”center” fullwidth=”true” margin_top=”25″ margin_bottom=”25″ outline_skin=”custom” outline_active_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_active_text_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_hover_bg_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_hover_color=”#ffffff”]CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE AFYA FOUNDATION’S AMAZON WISHLIST[/mk_button]
[mk_button dimension=”outline” corner_style=”rounded” size=”large” letter_spacing=”1″ url=”https://zeihan.com/end-of-the-world/” align=”center” fullwidth=”true” margin_top=”25″ margin_bottom=”25″ outline_skin=”custom” outline_active_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_active_text_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_hover_bg_color=”#8ef5c31″ outline_hover_color=”#ffffff”]PRE-ORDER PETER’S UPCOMING BOOK: THE END OF THE WORLD IS JUST THE BEGINNING[/mk_button]
[mk_button dimension=”outline” corner_style=”rounded” size=”large” letter_spacing=”1″ url=”https://zeihan.com/purchase-the-accidental-superpower/” align=”center” fullwidth=”true” margin_top=”25″ margin_bottom=”25″ outline_skin=”custom” outline_active_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_active_text_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_hover_bg_color=”#8ef5c31″ outline_hover_color=”#ffffff”]THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER[/mk_button]
[mk_button dimension=”outline” corner_style=”rounded” size=”large” letter_spacing=”1″ url=”https://zeihan.com/purchase-the-absent-superpower/” align=”center” fullwidth=”true” margin_top=”25″ margin_bottom=”25″ outline_skin=”custom” outline_active_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_active_text_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_hover_bg_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_hover_color=”#ffffff”]THE ABSENT SUPERPOWER[/mk_button]
[mk_button dimension=”outline” corner_style=”rounded” size=”large” letter_spacing=”1″ url=”https://zeihan.com/disunited-nations/” align=”center” fullwidth=”true” margin_top=”25″ margin_bottom=”25″ outline_skin=”custom” outline_active_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_active_text_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_hover_bg_color=”#ef5c31″ outline_hover_color=”#ffffff”]DISUNITED NATIONS[/mk_button]
