Israel-Palestine: Credit Where Credit’s Due

Hey, all Peter Zeihan here. Hi. From Colorado. Happy autumn. Today we’re going to take a look at what’s going on in the Middle East, specifically with this new piece that we’ve got between Gaza, Hamas, the Arab countries of the region, and Israel. I lost the trail. So I’m just kind of wandering through the woods at this point. Anyway, short version is we have a peace treaty. 

The guns have fallen silent. The first batch of refugees have already been returned home. We’re hopeful that in the next few days, the remains of the hostages who died will be return home as well. Everyone has seen something a little bit different, but Trump basically got a hero’s welcome when he addressed the Israeli parliament. 

And, you know, he deserves the moment. So for things about this, number one, so far it’s working. A lot of American presidents have made a lot of attempts to do a lot of things as regards the Middle East in general and Israel Palestine in specific. being able to broker the stop of hostilities, that’s no small thing. And Trump deserves the credit for it. One of the reasons that I’m a political independent is allows me to hate whoever I want to hate. But it also means that when things go well, I get to congratulate whoever I want to congratulate. 

This is an unmitigated success. And Trump deserves the accolades he’s getting. Number two, do I think it will last? Let’s not be silly. And that’s not a Trump thing. That’s a middle East thing. The Middle East, and specifically Israel-Palestine, has a core issue that’s not just about culture or religion. As regards the Palestinians, it’s about land. 

You’ve got two groups of people who claim the same land. There’s not enough space for all of them. And so one has won all the military confrontations that would be Israel. And as a result, the Palestinians basically live on reservations in the case of the West Bank and an open air prison in case of Gaza. Nothing about this deal is going to change that. 

In addition, no one agreed to the same thing. So Trump’s team went to gutter and got an agreement, but they said change A, B, and C, and then that agreement went to Israel where they said yes, but change DNF. And then that was communicated through third parties to Gaza. And they said yes, but change H J and I, no one agreed to the same thing. 

The American teams never went back to the original groups that they had spoken with. They just said they had buy in from everybody. And kind of bulldoze their way through. Now to this moment that’s working. And there have been a lot more organized, capable, functional plans that I’ve seen put up in this region that ultimately didn’t happen. 

This one at the moment is, but it’s built on contradictions and it’s built on everyone agreeing to disagree. And that never goes well anywhere. Much less in this part of the world. So do I think it’s going to stick? Of course not. There’s no version of this where Gaza looks nice. And sooner or later, the Gazans will remember that they live in a ruined open air prison. 

And we’ll have a new round of violence. But whether that’s a day or ten years from now matters for today. Not bad. Third, what was different this time around versus previous attempts? Well, the Israelis are on a military high point, which means it makes for a lot. Number two, Trump really doesn’t care about the niceties of diplomacy, which, in dealing with this region sometimes is a plus. 

But the really big thing is we brought in an outside personality that made a big difference. And that personality is somebody. You’re gonna hate me for this. Jared Kushner, now, Jared Kushner is the son in law of the current president. And in the first Trump presidency, he was kind of shuttling all over the world doing diplomacy. And I’ve seen worse efforts. 

He didn’t achieve very much. But the big difference between this time and last time is he used his time in the office to generate a swamp like, connection for business interests throughout the region. That wasn’t in place last time. And so he was able to leverage his business interests in order to bend the ears of everyone who mattered in the Persian Gulf and in Israel. 

Now, you might call this corruption, and you might have a point. But when it comes to unorthodox approaches, I can guarantee you that anyone who is in the world of business says that they will use their business interests in order to cut other sorts of deals. And that’s exactly what Kushner did. Had Trump stuck with his foreign policy team, which is broadly incompetent? 

This would have never happened. So Kushner deserves all the accolades that he is getting as well. And Trump deserves some credit for realizing that from time to time. Maybe you do want someone on the team who can find the place in the negotiating with on a map. Just maybe. All right. Fourth. And finally, and only because people keep asking, do I think this will get Donald Trump the Nobel Peace Prize? 

I don’t know. The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded by the Nobel Committee based on their own criteria, that they change on a whim and change from award to award, year to year. So in the past, Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger got it for, the end of the war in Vietnam or the peace accords in Vietnam. But that happened on the backside of a massive escalation of violence, kind of an escalate to de-escalate some thing which you in Middle East hands know all about. 

So maybe, on the other hand, Barack Obama got the Nobel Peace Prize for getting elected, which, you know, talk about how he left. So That is entirely up to the Norwegians, whether or not Donald Trump enters into that sort of category. I have no say in that.