Peter’s currently hiking beyond the reach of standard comms, so no video, but he’s still keeping abreast of recent developments in Russia and Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces are currently involved in a push into Russian territory, centered on advancing toward and beyond the border town of Sudzha. No apologies necessary if you’ve never heard of Sudzha—a town of less than 7,000 people—but Ukrainian forces likely did not choose it at random.
While the situation is still murky, Ukraine’s forces seem to have basically seized the town of Sudzha overnight on August 5th and 6th,and are moving toward Lgov (a town of less than 25,000 people). There are some logistical gains here and pressure points for the Russians: a significant natural gas metering station near Sudzha, some road access across the border to Ukraine. But the real goal here is likely securing Sudzha and Lgov and securing both sides of the Seym River.
Sudzha and Lgov also afford the Ukrainians excellent access to highway systems to regionally significant and import logistical hubs in Kursk and Belgorod. An ability to take the fight from eastern Ukraine to places like Belgorod would mean that Russia’s invasion has a second front not only within its own territory, but defending the logistical supply hubs vital toward supporting its efforts within Ukraine.
The Russians seems to have been surprised with the speed and success of Ukraine’s efforts, but long-time subscribers will note that we have highlighted Russian vulnerability vis-a-vis Belgorod and supplying the war effort more than once. We are including links to previous coverage and analysis on this issue below.
MAY 11, 2023
Ukraine War Updates Part 3: What’s Next for Russia
When a country views a conflict as existential, putting a timeline on it is nearly impossible. So no matter how well (or bad) this Ukrainian counter-offensive plays out, we are only at the beginning of a long, drawn-out war.
For the Russians, war doesn’t stop in Ukraine; it stops once they have captured enough land or territory deemed critical to their survival. So we’re no longer talking about Kyiv or Crimea…we’re talking about Russia moving west and trying to occupy former strategic positions the Soviets held, like Warsaw.
So what does that mean for the Ukrainians? If they are going to stop the Russians from waging war again, not only do they need to take back all of their lands…they need to take the fight to the Russians.
No matter how the Ukraine War plays out, we are looking at an extreme breakdown of the security order. Either Russia emerges victorious, and a confrontation with NATO is in the cards – OR – Ukraine comes out on top and sends the Russian State down a path of disintegration.
MAY 16, 2023
Ukraine War Q&A Series: Why Does Russia Have Oil Supply Issues?
The second question of the Q&A series is…if Russia is such a massive producer of oil and oil products, why are we wasting time discussing supply issues?
The Russian oil problems are best understood when compared to the American system. If you compare California and New York gas prices to those in Texas or Alabama…you might have a heart attack. Outside of the crazy taxes in CA and NY, this boils down to transportation.
Like CA or NY, most Russian oil is produced in one area, refined in another, and then needs to be shipped to its final destination. For the Russians, thousands of miles separate each of those steps. To complicate this supply chain even further, most of this stuff must be trucked into Ukraine since the Kerch Strait Bridge rail capabilities are gone.
The Ukrainians are fully aware of this shortcoming and are now focusing much of their firepower on oil transportation and infrastructure. Destroying refineries is easier said than done, so I would expect the main targets to be fuel tanks, fuel trains, and the occasional pipeline.
MAY 26, 2023
Russian Partisans Attacked the City of Belgorod
A group of ethnic Russians opposed to Putin’s government joined forces with Ukraine and launched an assault across the border into the city of Belgorod. There are three main takeaways from this cross-border attack.
Russia didn’t bother garrisoning its logistical centers along the Ukrainian border. While this assault was quickly put to rest, this will be crucial as Ukraine launches more attacks in the coming weeks and months.
We’re going to hear a lot more about Belgorod in the future. It’s one of the critical points the Russians use to launch assaults into Ukraine. For Ukraine to “win“ this war, Belgorod will need to be neutralized, one way or the other.
The final component is that these are ethnic Russians…fighting against Russia…in Russia. So this little hiccup might throw a wrench into some of those “for the Russian people” propaganda pieces that Putin is pushing.
As I’ve said before, the Russians will continue pushing this war until they can’t, and if Ukraine wants to win, they’ll eventually have to cross the border. These partisans may have just answered how that might be carried out.
JUNE 3, 2024
Ukraine Opens Up on Belgorod
From the beginning of the Ukraine War, the Western nations have placed restrictions on how their weapons donations to Ukraine can be used. Specifically, Western nations have been concerned that if Ukraine targets Russian forces within Russia, escalation may be unavoidable. But recent events have forced a change of calculus in the West.
Less than 48 hours after NATO gave Ukraine the right to use those donated weapons against Russian targets within Russia, Ukrainians opened up on Russian military assets in and around the Russian city of Belgorod.
It’s too soon to assess damage, but the lack of Russian counterattack suggests Ukraine will soon be able to attack Russian forces wherever they can be reached. Regardless of the weapon systems Ukrainians are using.
JUNE 17, 2024
Why Did Russia Choose Invasion Over Nukes? || Ask Peter
For years I’ve warned that a war between Russia and Ukraine was inevitable, but why didn’t Putin just play the nuke card? As an add-on, we’ll also be touching on some new Russian alliances that could rub the US the wrong way.
The Russians are no strangers to wars and territorial expansions, so despite having nukes, they still prefer their tried and true method of occupation. This may seem foolish given their nuclear capabilities, but the Russian goal is to establish a buffer they control easily, not a zone they have to patrol wearing hazmat gear.
The Ukraine War has also brought up conversations of Russian alliances with some unsavory characters, i.e. North Korea, Iran, and China. I’m really not too worried about these alliances either. The logistics alone make them all deal breakers.
The conversation about the American-led global order being disrupted is less about Russia’s moves and more about how the Americans decide to proceed with their global strategies.
JUNE 18, 2024
Ukraine: F-16s, Offensives, and Abject Humiliation
Ukraine is gearing up for one of its most important offensives to date, but what makes this one so different from the rest?
The main driver of this offensive is a delivery of F-16s from NATO, which was preceded by some large arms packages from Europe and the US. Now this is all very exciting, but we’re still a little ways out from this going down. In the meantime, Ukraine will be laying down the groundwork to help ensure that this offensive can successfully break through the stalemate that has defined much of the battlefield this year.
So what does that groundwork look like? You can expect to see Ukraine ramp up its strikes on Russian air defenses all throughout the occupied territory and even deep into Russia and Crimea. This will (hopefully) allow the Ukrainians to establish regional air superiority and use those F-16s to their full capabilities.
It doesn’t mean Ukraine will be flying into Moscow tomorrow and ending the war, but cutting off Russian logistics in Crimea and other areas could cause significant losses to Russia – and Putin’s ego. Expect further updates once all of this kicks off.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
