Armenia has long depended on Russia for just about everything, from energy to security, and even broader economic integration. However, the weekend election results in Armenia reflect a rejection of pro-Russian politics and a desire to find a new path forward.
This was likely to happen anyway, as Moscow has its hands full with everything else going on, but the big question remains: who can fill Russia’s shoes? Not many Armenians will like the answer…
Hey everyone. Peter Zeihan here, coming to you from Colorado. Today we’re going to talk about Armenia. America is one of the former Soviet republics that is in the South Caucasus, in a little pocket between Azerbaijan and Turkey. East and west and north and south. Former Soviet Republic of Georgia. Not. Not Atlanta and Iran. It’s a difficult position to be in.
There’s only 4 million people now, and a population has been hemorrhaging ever since the Cold War ended. It’s a little state that has been completely dependent on security guarantees granted by the Russians, and in fact, in a series of conflicts with John. If it wasn’t for those Russian security guarantees. It Armenia would have ceased to exist a long time ago.
But as much as we talk about drones in the Ukraine context, what a lot of people forget is that the first real wave of these new generation of drones that are changing warfare were used between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the Azerbaijani using a lot of Turkish weapons and basically completely obliterating the Armenian Air Force, its tank forces and its artillery in a one month war that happened all the way back into 2020.
I believe since then, Armenia has panicked is probably the best word for it. They’re landlocked. They don’t have their own energy. Most of the electricity comes from a single nuclear power plant, the fuel provided by Russia, and most of the security comes from a Russian base as well. Well, with the Ukraine war and all these new drones Armenia’s position has gone from untenable to something flirting with state collapse.
And so there is a recognition among the political elite of Armenia that something’s got to change and that Russia can’t be part of the solution, because if Russia was going to be part of the solution, they would be doing more. But they’re completely consumed with the Ukraine war and especially today, now that the Russians are basically watching their entire front line collapse in real time, there is not going to be any help for Armenia.
So today is the 8th of June and we had elections over the weekend. The ruling party, Civic Armenia, ruled by a guy by the name of passion, got about 50% of the votes, swamped the other parties. The Russians have been using their old playbook that they have used in Ukraine and in Georgia, in the United States and in Germany.
And the United came everywhere to try to discredit their foes and boost their chosen proxies. And it’s kind of funny, with the exception of the United States, it really hasn’t worked anywhere. But it’s generated so much backlash from the non-Russian forces that people really turned out in numbers anyway. The guy, the party who are trying to find a new path one decisively.
They’ll have an absolute majority in the Parliament. And the question now is what’s next? There is no good path. Let’s start with that. The Armenian mindset globally is defined by the Turkish genocide during the end times of World War one, when hundreds of thousands, some people would say 1 million or 2 Armenians were killed in Turkish territory. And that singular memory is seared into the brains of all the survivors and their descendants.
And so the idea of having any sort of long term deal with Turkey is something that is really just rejected. But now that the Russians are no longer part of any possibility, it’s something that they have to consider. You’ve got Azerbaijan on the east, which are allied with the Turks, get their weapons from the Turks, coordinate with the Turks.
From the Armenian point of view, they’re just as bad to the south. You’ve ever run, which has always been a window on the world. But the recent degradation in relations between the United States and Iran means that Iran is no longer a viable option for goods coming in and out. And that just leaves Georgia to the north, which is in the process of sliding into authoritarianism.
I guess that is another place where Russian misinformation has worked, and it’s not reliable either. So really the bottom line is either they cooperate with the Turks to a degree or they have nothing. So we do have real talks going on among Yerevan, Baku and Ankara about what is next. And this has to involve some sort of trade quarter.
It has to involve some sort of Azerbaijan energy so the Armenians can keep the light on. The Trump administration has gotten involved with handshake deal. JD Vance was there a few months ago basically saying that we will provide nuclear fuel to your facility. It’s not clear if that is an above board or possible outcome, because this is a nuclear power plant that is ancient and decrepit, and it’s not clear that the Americans can even make fuel rods that will fit into it.
But it’s at least the start of a place to talk. And now that we’ve had the vote, we’re going to see if this old new government can actually take concrete steps. But anything that does not involve a formal deal with Turkey is something that’s not going to go anywhere. So they’re going to have to take the hardest step first.
And screaming in the background you have the Armenian diaspora, which has always been very, very gung ho when it’s Armenian lives in Armenia that are a threat as opposed to their own. And of course, the Russians looking to sabotage this at every opportunity. I don’t mean to suggest that the Russians haven’t taken a hit in global and regional affairs in the last couple of years.
They obviously have, but I would not count them out when it comes to the ability to sabotage political deals. That is something they are very, very good at. So this election is really the start of a very difficult process, and we’re not going to see it wrapped up this year.
