FOR MORE ON THE FUTURE OF India, SEE DISUNITED NATIONS
The Accidental Superpower: Ten Years On
With a new “10 years later” epilogue for every chapter, comes an eye-opening assessment of American power and deglobalization in the bestselling tradition of The World is Flat and The Next 100 Years.
Countries across the globe have all benefited from the global order, but what happens when it comes crashing down? Thankfully for India, they are one of the few countries that will avoid much of the suffering.
India gets their energy from the nearby Persian Gulf (so no energy crisis for them), Indian agriculture is largely self-sufficient, and India isn’t overly dependent on trade…so what does this seemingly bright Indian future look like?
India (along with the rest of the developing world) has been overrun by Chinese manufacturing, but with China collapsing, the Indians will have to reclaim their manufacturing industry. Thanks to India’s widely differentiated labor market, this should make for a reasonably smooth transition. In all likelihood, India will become a manufacturing world power, even if all it does is supply its domestic market.
If you look at the attached graphic, you’ll notice India has a pure demographic pyramid at the top and then, at age 35, a sheer drop-off. This is a result of industrialization, but it does mean they’re having a period of hypercharged economic growth. The question we need to ask is, when does their luck run out?
India is a pocket power, meaning they don’t have a ton of great “expansion” options, and their geography will limit economic and strategic expansion. However, the geography that keeps India in place also helps to keep others out.
For that reason, India is very pro-India…meaning they are only looking out for number one and are willing to go out and take something if they need to. Luckily for the Indians, there won’t be many people who could stop them, either. Luckily for everyone else, we’re not to that point quite yet…
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