The Chinese are laying the groundwork for a new overseas military base in Laos. What makes this so special? Well, it would be the first foreign base that China can reliably supply without heavy dependence on other countries. And it would enable greater power projection across mainland Southeast Asia.
But there are some caveats. This base would be hard up against the Thai border, and for anyone who lacks regional knowledge, Thailand isn’t just some pushover country. It has a longstanding history of independence and a military to uphold that. Regardless, China’s base could significantly alter the region’s strategic balance.
Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here, coming to you from Colorado. It’s a nice fall day. Figured I’d get out and stretch the legs. Today we’re going to talk about a new development in Southeast Asia. It appears, I don’t want to overplay it, but it appears that the Chinese are laying the foundations for their first overseas base that they can actually supply without outside help. Keep in mind that they only have one until now. And that one is in Djibouti. It’s part of the whole anti-piracy operation, but that is completely dependent upon countries like Vietnam and India allowing their navy to operate unfettered, and the United States even facilitating actively Chinese supply lines. They just they can’t project power that far.
The new one is in Laos, a country in Southeast Asia. It’s landlocked. It is. Let’s be kind. It’s a failed state, and the only reason that it even gets talked about at all is because Chinese investment basically controls it. Chinese security forces basically run the intelligence services. It is not an independent power in any stretch of the imagination. It’s much more under the Chinese thumb than, say, Belarus is under Russia’s thumb, for example. Anyway, it’s landlocked. It’s got Vietnam on one side, Thailand to the south and Myanmar to the west. And so what it really has is strategic position among countries that really matter now and will really matter in the future, because if you look forward 10, 20, 30 years, these three countries, Vietnam, Thailand and Laos have a combination of industrial capacity and geographic potential and for the most part, a good demographic structure. So they’re going to be major industrial powers moving forward. Anyway. The new base is just south of Vientiane, which is the capital of Laos, and it’s basically hard up spitting distance of the Thai border. And with the air base, it seems to be under construction. Satellite photos have shown a number of Chinese aircraft that have been there, and not just overnight. So it’s not an exercise. The Chinese would be able to project power really throughout land based Southeast Asia, which is something that could be a problem for anyone in the area. Pros and cons from the Chinese point of view, pros of course, is the new reach that they have and turning a client state into a military satrapy. Not a bad idea. Cons. The country that this is on the border of is Thailand, and Thailand is arguably the most capable country in the region from an economic and from a security point of view. So if you put an air base hard on the border of a country that actually has a functional army, if you ever use that air base, you’re going to be hating life and the not too distant future. Also, keep in mind that Thailand is not a normal country in many respects. It’s not that it’s pro-American, although as a rule it is. It’s that Thailand has a deep cultural muscle tone that isn’t just part of the post-World War II era. Even at the height of the Age of Empires in the colonial age, Thailand was never fully colonized. The core of it, including right up to the border that this base is now on, always remained under domestic Thai control.
So if the Chinese were looking to pick a fight with someone who can fight back, they picked well. And if they’re looking to undermine a country, this is the one they have to undermine. So one way or another, this is really colorful, and I don’t think we’re going to have to wait more than a couple of years to see how Thailand and other countries respond.
That’s it.
