The Russian military has abandoned any hope of local Ukrainians viewing them as welcome liberators or Slavic cousins. And so too has the Russian military abandoned any pretense of trying to limit civilian casualties. Russian military strategy in Ukraine–decried early on as a logistical quagmire and proof of Moscow’s status as a paper tiger–created one set of lessons for the Americans and other backers of Ukraine’s army (something we’ve touched on here).

But the changing strategic landscape has created another set of lessons for Russia’s military itself. Moscow is now moving decidedly toward eliminating civilian infrastructure and, increasingly, civilians themselves. As of writing, nearly half of Ukraine’s population are now refugees, internally displaced, or trapped in place under active fire. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has quickly become the largest mass refugee event in human history. 

To that end, we would like to both remind our followers that we are working to bring attention to aid groups like the Afya Foundation, as well as thank all of your for the incredible generosity and commitment you have already shown. The Afya Foundation works to deliver donated medical supplies from the United States directly to refugees in and around the Ukrainian conflict. As the Russian military continues to escalate its targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure, Afya is working with medics and other volunteers to deliver necessary medical supplies within Ukraine.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Moscow has begun limiting natural gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria as Russia seeks to increase energy pressure on Europe. Ostensibly these moves are to encourage European buyers of natural gas to pay their bills in rubles. But Russia has a longer-term goal in mind.

Many private players within Germany, Austria and Hungary especially are lobbying their respective governments to allow them to continue doing business with Russia in rubles, hoping to sidestep sanctions. 

Why cut gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland? Both have older infrastructure linkages to Russia dating back to their status as former members of the Soviet Union. Both also serve as transit states to downstream customers. Russia can limit gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria without hurting primary consumers–and significant trade partners–in places like Germany, Austria and Hungary. Russia is also betting that Bulgaria and Poland will tap newer gas transit lines to distribute within their networks, which will then allow Moscow to pursue a variety of legal remedies against the two EU states. 

This is all being done with an eye of exacerbating the considerable EU and NATO cohesion that has seen a broad constellation of political, economic and military support for the Ukrainians since the Russian invasion began. Even if Europeans are broadly supportive of Ukraine conceptually, the Russians know that when the rubber hits the road (or more bluntly, if the natural gas doesn’t flow), Berlin and Vienna and Budapest will prioritize local economic and energy concerns over an abstract sense of supporting democracy in Ukraine. 

All of this to a point, though. The Europeans are showing many signs of shaking off decades of inertia and wishful thinking when it comes to finally doing the hard work of weaning off Russian energy. We see this most clearly when it comes to updating oil transport infrastructure. Russia needs to move quickly before buyers like Germany can easily source alternative crude supplies, and before its own fields must be shut-in due to a lack of buyers. Which makes natural gas the last strategic link. Moscow must walk a narrow line between applying enough pressure to break the European alliance, but not so much that Germany and its neighbors become convinced to sever its energy dependencies on Russia.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Russia and its military have lagged considerably behind the Ukrainians in several categories: logistics, communications, and especially in metabolizing and deploying new technology, such as drones. It is especially in this latter instance where Kyiv has shown a remarkable nimbleness over Moscow. 

But the battle is now shifting to an artillery tit-for-tat in eastern Ukraine, where Stingers and short-range drones will be less useful for the Ukrainians. It is also exactly the kind of battle that the Russians have trained for, and is why I believe my overall assessment will still hold: that the Russians will ultimately overrun the Ukrainians, especially as the conflict moves past May.

Russia’s lagging technological prowess has several historical analogues. One of the best known is the Battle of Crimea, a battle that Russia ultimately lost. The outcome isn’t what I want to highlight here, but rather that Russia spent years and roughly half a million lives until it surrendered. In conflicts that Russia deems necessary to its survival–against Napoleon, the Brits and the French, the Germans, Hitler–the Russians will fight until they simply cannot fight any longer. Do not expect the current war in Ukraine to be any different.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Ukrainian media reported sinking the flagship of the Russian Navy’s Black Sea fleet, the Moskva, April 13, following a direct hit by an indigenously produced Neptune anti-ship missile. After several hours of uncorroborated reports, Russian media confirmed that its sailors did have to abandon ship–but not because of any Ukrainian missiles. Rather, an accident lead to a fire* in the ship’s weapons depot and, well… kaboom. 

Either way, this is another embarrassment for Russia and one they can ill afford. While US and Russian officials confirm that the Moskva is still afloat, there’s no good indication of when or if it will reenter service. Russia’s navy has been in severe decline since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Part of this makes sense–Russia doesn’t just need a Baltic/North Sea fleet, but also a Black Sea fleet, and a Pacific fleet, and if we’re feeling aspirational, an Arctic fleet. (I’m leaving aside Russia’s submarines for the time being.) Maintaining multiple navies is a difficult and expensive logistical endeavor. And if we’ve learned anything about Russia since it started its invasion of Ukraine, it’s that logistics is not their strong suit. 

The loss of the Moskva is especially concerning for the Russians since the Black Sea is of such critical importance for the Russian economy; it is where a bulk of Russian oil and fuel exports reach foreign tankers (at least, when Russia still had customers). And it has been so historically. Russia’s Crimean naval victories of the late 18th and 19th centuries are usually the last mentions of Russian naval glory, especially since the Japanese destroyed the Russian fleet in 1905. 

NATO has largely avoided massing ships in the Black Sea for a variety of reasons, but avoiding unnecessarily antagonizing the Russians has been a big one. But at the rate that that the Russian Black Sea fleet is floundering – the Moskva is the second ship they’ve lost in the last 8 weeks – it’s worth considering for how much longer the Russians will have any meaningful presence on the Black Sea. In that scenario, it is not inconceivable to see NATO placing a few vessels in the Black Sea to hang around Turkish ports (or Georgia, Or Romania, or Bulgaria…).

*I would be remiss to not mention that the flagship of the Russian navy, and their sole aircraft carrier the Admiral Kuznetsov suffered a fire in 2019 and… still has not reentered service. There was not a dry dock left that was large enough to accommodate the ship, so the Russians were building one in Murmansk and looking to begin refitting the ship this June, weather permitting. With the amount of sanctions and financial pressures facing Moscow now, I would say their anticipated re-launch date of mid-2023 seems exceedingly optimistic.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

The Biden Administration announced this morning that it was working with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to make changes to the laws regarding E15 fuel, or gasoline containing up to 15% ethanol. Retailers are allowed to sell an E10 blend (with up to 10% ethanol) year round, but E15 is usually banned from June 1 through September 15–peak automobile travel months in the United States. This is due primarily to concerns over the fuel’s stability in higher temperatures and disputed data about E15’s increased emissions and deleterious impact on air quality. 

The Biden administration’s primarily goal here is to help reverse the climb of fuel prices across the United States, a trend that has been exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The White House estimates that the mix of ethanol in the US fuel supply should knock a few cents off a gallon at the pump. No disputes there. 

The issue comes that the US ethanol supply is made primarily from corn. (Some 40% of US corn production ultimately ends up as ethanol in E10 and E15 fuel blends.) We are currently seeing a global agricultural system that is facing serious increases in inputs from fuel to fertilizers, not to mention a global food crisis stemming from a war between two of the world’s largest grain exporters.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

The Russians are leaning on a tried and true mechanism of sanctioned economies: GOLD! I’ve heard from several corners that this somehow means the Russian ruble is now a gold-backed currency. This is simply not true. Nor does it mean that the Russian Central Bank – and, broadly speaking, the Russian economy – is not in a place of desperation. 

Russia is a hoarder of gold. Russia is also a significant producer and exporter of gold ores and boullion. Russia has the gold to prop up its currency for the short term, but instead the central bank is engaged in a very different game: replacing the ruble with an untraceable medium of trade. To do that the RCB needs more gold. A lot more. And so the Bank is competing with Russia’s own citizens in buying gold and dumping the ruble.

The task facing Russian Central Bank Chief Elvira Nabiullina – who I am on the record saying is likely the smartest central banker currently working in the world – is not an easy one. While the ruble’s free fall was largely halted and corrected, Moscow must cover imports, fund its activities abroad, stabilize its currency, and find inventive ways to prop up strategic industries and secure whatever export income in can. All this in the face of the most comprehensive sanctions program in modern history.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY