Ask Peter: What’s the Deal with Manchin’s Gas Pipeline?

Democrat Joe Manchin managed to sneak a few clauses into the debt ceiling extension deal for the completion of his Mountain Valley Pipeline. Environmentalists are pissed, and fossil fuel lovers gave Machin a double thumbs up. So who’s right and who’s wrong?

For those who think wind and solar are the future and there’s no use case for fossil fuels, you might want to check the math. For wind and solar to be viable, they need a complimentary energy source…and natural gas is the best option.

For those natural gas lovers who think green energy can only work with massive subsidies, your math needs some checking too. In the right geographies, solar and wind are the cheapest energy option on an hour-by-hour basis.

While the Mountain Valley Pipeline might seem to benefit only one side of the aisle, Manchin moved us one step closer to the inevitable future of American energy. It’s not green. It’s not fossil fuels. It’s both. And I’m okay with that.

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Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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TRANSCIPT

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan coming to you from the ever increasingly foggy Docman Trail. This is the next in our Ask Peter series that was born out of my airline delay. Today, the question is about Joe Manchin, the Republican excuse me, the Democrat, from West Virginia, who has managed to insert a couple of clauses into the deal with the White House to extend the debt ceiling. Specifically, it’s something that it mentioned has been after a while, which is permitting and federal approval to get a new pipeline built through West Virginia to ship natural gas. Environmentalists hate it because it’s natural gas, pro fossil fuel folks obviously think it’s okay. The truth is that everyone’s right and everyone’s wrong. So let me kind of lay out what it means.

Let’s start with the green side. For those of you who think that solar and wind is the future of energy and that any sort of fossil fuel is just antithetical to that future. You’re clearly very bad at math. Just think of every day in your life when the sun goes down. Solar. No longer works. And while you can’t use batteries a little bit, the United States right now has less than a couple of minutes of battery storage and there is not enough lithium on the planet for the United States to get to 4 hours of battery storage. And we don’t have a battery chemistry that would allow us to go not just through the night, but through the winter and through periods where there’s usually not a lot of sun, which, if you live in the American Northeast, is the vast majority of the year. So you need a complementary power source that can work with solar and wind. And the best way to do that is with natural gas. You basically use solar when it’s available and you have a combined cycle natural gas plant that can spin up in 10 to 15 minutes whenever it gets cloudy or whenever the sun goes down, you know, every day for the foreseeable future, until we have a better, better technology or better solar or probably better wind is what would get there first. This is just where we’re going to go. So if you want to build solar and wind without a complementary system, you’re then basically forcing anyone who needs emergency power to use a diesel generator. And as we’ve seen in the case of Germany, they have used Lignite coal as the backup. And you can’t spin that up and down in ten or 15 minutes. You have to leave that on the whole time. So despite $2 trillion in green tech build out, Germany’s carbon emissions have actually gone up. So, you know, there’s a problem.

Now, for those of you on the fossil fuel side who say that intermittency of solar and wind means it’s not a viable power source and it can only exist with subsidies. You’re not very good with math either. Solar and wind in the right geographies are now the cheapest way of generating power on an hour by hour basis. Now, hour by hour being the key word there, there’s something that some folks like to use called the levelized cost of operation, meaning that you average the cost out over the 24 hour, three, 24 hour day three in a 65 day year period. That’s really not a great measure, because when the sun stops shining, the power goes down to zero. You still need it. And that’s not reflected in the levelized cost, or at least not sufficiently, in my opinion, because, you know, when you don’t have power and you need power, you will pay whatever you have to do to get power. There are parts of the country that can do more of one or the other. So if you’re in the American Northeast, which is neither sunny nor windy, you know, fossil fuels are going to be a much bigger part of your power mix going forward than it can be in the rest of the world. However, if you’re in the southwest, you’re in a place that has great sun, and if you were the Southwest overlaps with the Great Plains, you’ve great, great sun and wind. And that means ultimately more and more and more things like what Manchin is after. Keep in mind the pipeline he was so much in love with the way he wants to get this done is not just a one off approval for a pipeline across a state line; he wants that for all energy infrastructure. And obviously the green zealots think this only means pipes, but it also means power lines, because if we’re going to move to a cleaner, greener future, we have to be able to move electric ones from where they can be generated with solar and wind to where we actually live. And since the single largest concentration of population is on the American Northeast coast, and that’s where none of the green power comes from, we’re ultimately going to have to run this in by wire from other places. So we need more and more transmission, more than we need something like batteries right now, at least with today’s technology.

So the future of American electricity isn’t green, but it’s also not fossil fuels. It’s both. I’m okay with that.

Australia Strikes a Greentech Deal with the US

There’s one massive hole we’ll need to fill if the green movement will ever work in the US…mineral resources. Thankfully we just struck a deal with our Aussie allies, who happen to have many of the key minerals and resources we need.

This deal will enable the Australians to contribute mineral resources to the American greentech industry in a way that will allow them to benefit from the incentives and subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

While Australia is a significant producer of many necessary Greentech resources, it’s not a one-stop shop for everything. They’re also great at producing the raw ore, but the value add component isn’t their thing. Thanks to subsidies from the IRA, there will be an opportunity to bring value-add capabilities to the Outback.

But what about all the other US allies? Will they be able to tap into this deal? We must remember that there is an inner circle and an outer circle of allies…for now, only the inner circle gets to play.

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Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

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TRANSCIPT

Hey Peter Zeihan here coming to you from chilly Phoenix, where it’s a balmy 102 at ten in the morning. I don’t know how people do it. It’s only May. Anyway, back on May 20th or 21st, you’re gonna see this a few days later. The Americans strike a deal with the Australians that will allow the Australians to contribute their mineral resources to the American greentech industry in a way that they will benefit from the incentives and the subsidies that are part of the Inflation Reduction Act.

There’s a real hullabaloo of late about which countries can get access and which can’t, and Australia is a tight ally. It’s part of the inner circle and most importantly it has a preexisting free trade agreement with the United States. And so they are the source of roughly half of the world’s lithium. And they are a significant producer of rare earths and zinc and copper as well. So this definitely scratches a lot of it, just not all of them. They don’t do molybdenum, they don’t do silver or they don’t do a huge amount of bauxite, although they have some. No chromium. So, you know, it’s not like this is a one stop shop for everything The United States needs, but it’s a real big step in the right direction.

Kind of two follow on thoughts from here.Number one, while the Australians are great at producing the raw ore. They do very little value add themselves and one of the things that the IRA is attempting to do is to build up a parallel supply chain that’s independent from China for processing of these raw materials into metals and then on into intermediate products. Australia is a logical place for a lot of that. I mean, yes, Labor costs are high relative to other places in the world, but since the minerals are right there and the energy is cheap, especially if you want to do stuff with solar in the freaking outback, there’s a lot of upward potential. They just need the investment and a decision that they want to move up the value added chain and the IRA will probably help with that, now you’ll have some American Australian fusion projects that are located on both sides of the Pacific. The second thing are the countries that may be able to join the Australians in kind of this inner circle. The United States has a handful of free trade agreements. Obviously the most famous one is NAFTA, and obviously they already qualify for these incentives. But the U.S. also has trade deals with the Koreans and the Japanese and in the world to come. These are countries that are involved in manufacturing. They’re going to do one more and more processing in the value add for things like battery chassis themselves. And so it still needs to be negotiated, but it’s starting from a very strong position and we should expect those to join.

Who’s not going to join is the European Union. Getting a free trade deal with the European Union has always been something that on both sides of the Atlantic has been flirted with, but it’s never really gone anywhere. A lot of the European countries, most notably the French, are highly protectionist, and the idea of exposing themselves to the American market at all is just not something they are even willing to consider. But more importantly, Europe is in demographic collapse and they’ve simply run out of people who are under age 40, the folks who normally do the consumption. So the United States no longer has any sort of economic rationale for an economic partnership over the long term with Europe, because it would just mean that Europe would be product dumping on the Americans. Similar situation for Korea and Japan, but there’s a big strategic argument that these are allies that have to be kept close as part of maintaining a presence in the Asian theater. In the case of Europe, in many cases, it’s a little bit more of a problem than it’s worth. And while there are independent European powers like the Brits or maybe the Swedes or in the Poles, that may be worth it. If it’s all part of a network of the EU, then the cost is simply too high. So there’s definitely an inner circle and an outer circle among the allies. And when it comes to greentech, only the inner circle can play. Alright, that’s it. Everyone take care.

The Economics of Green Energy

The economics of green energy are vastly different from traditional fossil fuels, and we must understand their differences if the transition to green energy will ever be successful.

When building a traditional power plant, most of the costs come from the fuel used to manufacture the plant, which can be paid over time by the fuel you sell. Most of the expenses for green energy plants come from the plant’s initial construction, which requires lots of capital on the front end.

There are two complications with the transition to green energy. First, the cost of capital is rising and will continue for the next 10+ years, making those upfront costs even heftier. Second, energy costs are traditionally inelastic. So as the system is converted to green energy, the cost of components will have to be factored in.

The bottom line is not that we shouldn’t go green; instead, we should only put these plants where the technology matches the geography. Putting solar where it’s sunny and wind where it’s windy. Once we can figure that out, we’ll just need some help from the tech space and Congress to help with the transmission side of things.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

TRANSCIPT

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from the hike and bike trail in downtown Austin. Today I wanted to talk a little bit about energy economics, specifically green energy economics.

Now, the idea that once you’ve paid for the sunk cost of the solar or the wind system, that you’re in the clear. You know, to a degree that’s true. But you first have to get the thing built. There’s two complications here that we’re facing. The first is capital. So when you’re going to build like a normal thermal power plant, about three quarters, 60%, three quarters of the cost of that plant is actually in the fuel that you are going to burn over the lifespan of the project. You don’t have to finance that upfront. You pay for that as you go. And you typically use the income that you get from selling your electricity to your customers to pay for that. So the only part that you have to finance is that initial construction, which is typically a quarter to a third of the total.

With GreenTech, that’s not how it goes. With green tech, roughly 80% of the cost of the project over the life span is in construction. And even if you can get into a situation where you’re in a sufficiently sunny or windy place that the per cost for the kilowatt hour or the power you generate is or over the lifespan of the project, the same as it is for a fossil fuel system. You still have to finance that all upfront. And with the baby boomers moving into mass retirement and liquidating all over their holdings because they can’t take a shock of a currency crash or a market crash anymore, the cost of capital in the United States is going up, and it will remain high until such time as the Millennials are the capital rich group in our population. That won’t happen until most of them are in their fifties, and that won’t happen for another 10 to 12 years. So we’ve got this period of much higher capital costs, which means much higher development costs for electricity projects in the green space. There’s really no way around that.

The second problem has to do with the elasticity of energy costs. So let’s say you need a gallon of gasoline in order to drive to work. If you can only get 9/10 of a gallon, it’s not like you park your car and walk the rest of the way and just leave your car for all time and up. You will pay whatever you have to pay to get that last 10th. And that price then applies to the entire market. And if you have a shift in demand of only like 10 to 15%, you can easily see a change in price of 50 to 100%. And we know this is true for electricity, for coal, for natural gas, for oil, and even for nuclear fuel. Now, if we decide we are really going to go with the green transition in mass, then all of a sudden a lot of the components that go into electricity generation are going to become power fuels. That’s chromium, that’s copper, that’s aluminum, that’s fiberglass, that’s graphite, that’s lithium. We have not priced in that the system.

The bottom line of all this is not don’t go green. The bottom line of this is you only put these technologies in places where the geography matches the capacity for these things to work. So you put up solar where it’s sunny, you put up wind power where it’s windy and if you’re going to put it somewhere else. Not only do you have to think of the cost over the long term in an entirely different light, you’ve got to change the metrics because it’s going to cost more to build and is going to cost more to finance. And that means we ultimately need better technologies than what we have now, especially in transmission, so that we can bring the electricity from where it’s produced in a reasonable manner to where most people actually live. And that requires, among other things, multiple acts of Congress, both to appropriate the money for that research and to make it easier for power to pass through different states, jurisdictions, and especially between the three power grids that the United States shares.

Alright. That’s it for me. Talk to you guys later.

Clean Energy in Chicago: Why Windy Suburbs Matter

What do Chicago, Denver, and DFW all have in common? Yes, they are all major metro areas in the US, but more importantly, they’re colocated with green energy sources. As the world adopts more and more clean energy, these regions with localized energy sources will have a huge leg up on places like New York, Berlin, and London.

Finding a metro (where people actually want to live) surrounded by wind and solar potential is rare…it just so happens that the US is home to most of these regions. For places not so geographically blessed, the main concern becomes transporting the power from the source to the city. This can often span hundreds, even thousands of miles, and that distance puts up a number of red flags.

There are the obvious concerns of transmission loss, equipment, and overall economic viability, but once you start transporting power across states and grids, you have to deal with regulatory issues as well. The federal system in the US means that national, state, and local governments all share power. So transporting energy is no simple task.

It will take an act (or two or three) of Congress before the flow of green energy is freed up; that’s not going to be a quick process. The metros with green energy sources nearby will have a huge advantage in the years to come. So if you need a place to move, I hear DFW could use a few more green-friendly folks.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

TRANSCIPT

Hey Everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from very chilly northern Illinois. Behind me, of course, we have a wind turbine which is one of literally hundreds in the immediate area around me. We are at the edge of the Great Plains here. I mean, technically, yes, we’re in more of the Midwest, but we are in one of the world’s great wind zones, Great Plains, going into the northern Midwest is all pretty good wind space. And what is unique about this turbine in particular is it is supporting the metro region that is the Chicagoland zone, which is the fourth largest metro in the United States. In most places of the world, it doesn’t matter what continent you’re on, what country you’re in, it is very rare for there to be good wind or solar potential near a major metro. And so even if you are able to build out the system to generate the power, then you have to transmit hundreds, maybe even thousands of miles. Chicago is one of the handful of cities in the world that is an exception to that rule. Northern Illinois, especially northeastern Illinois, you’ve got decent wind right at the doorstep of the metro zone. And so you don’t need high voltage lines in order to transmit the power up to the urban section effectively. You can use more lower load bearing facilities and equipment, and that means that Chicago is able to reach out not just to northern Illinois, but also southern Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, something a little bit of western Iowa and into Ohio as well in order to generate electricity. Now, there are very, very, very, very few places in the world where this works, but most of them are in the United States. So my adopted hometown of Denver is at the edge of the Great Plains great wind zone. Phoenix is obviously at the heart of a great solar zone, as is Albuquerque and Dallas Fort Worth is probably the American metro that has the most green potential of all because it’s where the Great Plains meet the Southwest. And so Dallas Fort Worth is likely to be the first major American metro zone to go 100% green, despite the fact that there are only like four environmentalists in the entire metro zone.

Now, if you’re going to try to make a green impact, it’s very important to co-locate power with your urban centers, because it’s very rare anywhere in the world to locate power generation more than 500 miles, because at that point, the transmission loss becomes so high that it’s really not worth it from an economic point of view anyway. And in the United States, we’re one of the very few places that actually has the metro zones that meet those criteria. But you can’t do that in New York. You can’t do that in Toronto. You can’t do that in Paris. You can’t do that in Berlin or London or Moscow or Beijing. It’s really only in the United States where we have that co-location. If you don’t have that co-location, then you have to have high voltage lines that are designed for a long range transmission, and those are not cheap.

Now, in most countries, you have a unified power grid. The United States is not. In most countries, we do things a little bit differently. Most of our utilities are set at the state or even local level. And that means if you want to transmit power from, say, Utah to Los Angeles, you have to cross through different states, regulatory authorities and each of them have their own rules for transmission and for even just raising the capital to do it in the first place. And, God forbid, you want to cross between different grids because the United States has three. Roughly everything west of the Rockies is on one. Roughly everything east of the Rockies is on another. And then, of course, Texas has its own thing. If if if the goal is to decarbonize the power system, not only do we need a lot of solar and wind, we would also need several acts of Congress that would break down the regulatory burdens that exist across these different grid systems and across the different states and across industries, municipalities. The problem the Americans face is that the United States is a federal system where the national government, the state governments and the local governments all share power. They all have about the same amount. And Congress would need to break that down within the power sector in order to encourage a more unified grid space that allows green electrons to travel more freely.

That would trigger dozens of lawsuits from the state and localities, which would rightly challenge the power grab from the federal government, which means, at least in the near term, the next decade, maybe two, most of the stories for green power penetration into the American grid have to happen at the local level. And that gives cities like Chicago, Albuquerque, Phoenix, Denver and of course, Dallas, Fort Worth, a huge leg up over everyone else whose local electricity resources, when it comes to green tech, simply aren’t that great.

Okay, everybody. That’s it for me. See you next time.

Dire Straits: Energy in Europe

Horrible views today up on the Isthmus Peak Trail in New Zealand.

Europe’s energy situation looked pretty dire last year as concerns began to mount over the impending winter season. Thankfully they dodged a bullet this year, but how many more bullets can the Europeans dodge?

The issue with Europe’s lucky streak is that none of what saved them can be replicated. Industrial demand has already plummeted, and maintaining these levels would have detrimental effects. Paying through their teeth for liquified natural gas isn’t sustainable. And unless the Europeans have Mother Nature on speed dial, they can’t expect another moderate winter like this year.

Unfortunately for all of us, current global energy supplies are likely the best they’ll be for years to come. So the Europeans need to say thanks for the extra time and head back to the drawing board to get out of this pickle.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

TRANSCIPT

Hey everyone. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from New Zealand on the Isthmus Peak Trail just came down off the summit where it was a breezy, negative five degrees centigrade, complete with. What was that called again – grapple – grappling. And when that was no fun at all. Anyway, we found a nice spot with a backdrop here. I want to talk to you about what’s going on with energy in Europe now in the aftermath of the Ukraine war.

We all know that between damage to pipelines and boycotts and shut offs on the Russian side and war damage that the Europeans are using, a lot less natural gas from Russia. And Russia was their primary supplier providing the continent with about a quarter of the total natural gas. And in the case of Germany, specifically, over 40% coming from a single pipeline.

Now, for those of you who’ve been following me for a year, you know that I was really concerned that over the winter, natural gas was going to just not be available. Because if you look at historical trends when it comes to storage and pricing and usage…it looked pretty dire? And in fact, in the aftermath of Nord Stream being blown off back in September, we saw natural gas prices go up by a factor of five, six, seven. And at one point they were about $70 per thousand cubic feet. Apologies for those of you who speak metric. Most of my audience is American, blah blah blah. Anyway, but over the winter, prices have plummeted to historic lows.

Now three things have happened that have enabled that to occur and to prevent just a complete meltdown in Europe or freeze up, I guess.

Number one, the Europeans, especially the Germans, shut down most industrial demand. So they just stopped smelting aluminum and steel and stopped fabricating petrochemicals and fertilizers. That is something you can sustain, but only at the cost of absolutely massive damage to your economic system. This is more of a problem for Germany than the rest. I mean, it’s a problem for everybody. But for the Germans, the petrochemical systems that they use are fueled by natural gas and those petrochemical outputs then go to the base materials for their manufacturing sector. So by shutting this stuff down, they are now dependent upon intermediate products that come from a continent away which are not nearly as reliable and are much higher cost. So the capacity, the profitability, the sustainability of the entire German industrial model is now in severe doubt. And in the best case scenario, the Germans probably only have about two years left that they can operate like this, assuming nothing else goes wrong.

Second, the Europeans paid five, six, seven, eight, nine times the prices that they were paying before in order to tap natural gas and liquefied form. Now, natural gas is kind of hard to move. It’s a gas. You have to have a pipeline system that links production to transport, to distribution, to usage all at the same time, because storage is relatively expensive. And the Europeans were obviously dependent on the Russians for that. But if you have a lot of extra infrastructure here, you can at a point of export near a point of production. You can chill the stuff down, basically with a giant freezer tied -300 odd degrees and make natural gas an actual liquid and then ship the liquid like you would any other liquid, although specialized tanker. And then once you get it to the end destination and you can warm it back up, gassify and pump into your system per normal. And Europeans tapped the global market for that at a scale we have never seen the Europeans do before, and they paid through the teeth to do that. LNG on average costs about triple what the gas cost because of the costs of cooling and in transport and regasification. Excuse me, but it was either that or not have power. So the Europeans generally did that and that triggered a series of energy problems all around the world, especially in countries like Japan and Korea and Taiwan, who normally rely on LNG as their primary source of energy. So that was the second thing.

The third thing is they got really lucky. Temperatures for the last nine, ten weeks across all of Europe have been 20 to 30 degrees above historical average. It has been the warmest winter on record. And in that sort of environment, demand for natural gas, for heating just hasn’t been as robust as it normally is.

Now, the problem for the Europeans is none of these things are really replicable. I mean, you can’t count on Mother Nature being that nice. More than one year in a row. The Russian supplies that are piped aren’t coming back this summer, which is normally when the Europeans would refill their stocks. So the only way that they can refill them is to go back to the international market and tap even more LNG. But it takes 5 to 7 years to build an LNG liquefaction facility. So global supplies are as good as they’re going to get for the appreciable future and they could keep all of their industry offline in order to reduce demand. That might be their only option, but that comes as a critical economic cost over the long term, not just in terms of competitiveness, but the very existence of some of these heavy manufacturing sectors.

So no good solutions. The Europeans dodged several bullets this year, and they should consider themselves very, very lucky. But we are only at the beginning of a multi-year transition to what is next. And the Europeans were simply fortunate that they have a little bit more time to work on other things.

Oh, yeah. One more thing that helped the Europeans out. If you remember back to November, December and January, that’s when the Chinese were imploding over COVID. We still don’t have good numbers, but assuming that the COVID strain that the Chinese were dealing with matches what the anti-vaxxers in the United States suggested was the actual authority rate for COVID. They lost a million people. And in that period, economic activity basically crashed. So for roughly three months, the Chinese were not importing a lot of liquefied natural gas themselves. At the same time, the Europeans desperately needed whatever molecules they could get. So we had a three month period where natural gas prices globally in the liquefied market was just weird and it benefited the Europeans the most you could possibly imagine…DONE.

The Solar Power Problem(s)

For solar power to make sense, there’s one non-negotiable component…and yes, it’s that bright, shiny thing in the sky – the sun. But just because your planet has a sun doesn’t mean you should use solar power…

The best examples are places like Denver or SoCal, where the sun is out showing off most days of the year. Then you move on to places like New York, Toronto or Berlin – which have plenty of overcast days – and your case for using solar power goes out the window.

The point of all of this isn’t to say that solar power can’t be part of the energy solution, but there are still quite a few hoops we’ve got to jump through to get there.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Join me on Feb. 17th for the webinar – Global Outlook: One Year into the Ukraine War.

We’ll dive into the global impacts the war has had on supply chains, agriculture, and much more. After my presentation we’ll have a Q&A portion to answer all those burning questions.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

TRANSCIPT

Hey everybody. Hello from Colorado. Peter Zeihan here. Today I wanted to talk about solar. Since it’s a sunny day. I am green, but I’m a green who can do math. So I don’t get invited to really any of the green parties. Solar is great if you know, if you have one of those a sun, not just you have to have one for your planet. You have to be able to see it regularly. Solar intensity around the world varies by an order of magnitude based on where you are, and if your goal is to both generate a meaningful amount of electricity and reduce your carbon footprint. There are only a handful of places where today’s solar technology really work well.

Now I live in one of them. Denver is the sunniest city in the United States, and people like, Oh, shouldn’t that be Phenix or Dallas – no. Because there’s more things that go in there than temperature, humidity, air density, wind patterns, weather patterns. Denver sits on the Lees side of the Rocky Mountains. So it’s in the rain shadow of the largest mountain range on the continent. And it gets its weather in two phases. Either storms that blow in from the mountains or storms that blow off the Great Plains. In both cases, the storms tend to be cold fronts, so they whip through fast. They drop a lot of rain or snow and then they move on, leaving clear air behind.

If you’re in Phenix, you’re going to be dealing with a lot of particulate matter because of the dry desert nature of the place and a lot of smog. If you’re in Dallas Fort Worth, you’re dealing with humidity. There just aren’t very many places in the world that have a really good solar quotient. And in the United States, you’re pretty much talking about the California coastline into southern California and then into the desert southwest. And there’s this little hook up the east side of the front range, which is where I live. In fact, I’m one up on Denver because I’m at 7500 feet. So we regularly get snow in our valleys and fog in our valleys and Denver will get fogged in. But I am a half a vertical mile above Denver and so it is very rare for my neighborhood to be fully cloudy for a whole day. It only happens about 20 or 30 days a year as opposed to when you have an atmospheric haze, which in most populated parts of the world lasts pretty much, you know, entire seasons.

That means that my panels, if you were to put them in New York, only generate about a quarter of the power that they generate for me. Put that in Toronto you’re down to one fifth. You put in Berlin down to one sixth. As a rule, most of the human population, most notably in Southeast China or excuse me, and the East Chinese coast, Northern Europe and Northeast United States. If you put up solar panels, you are most likely generating more carbon from the creation of a panel and transmission system than you’ll ever pay down from the electricity that you generate. So you’re actually contributing to the problem rather than solving it.

Which brings us to a second problem. I live in a rural area, so I’ve got a big roof line and I have an 11.5 kilowatt solar system, which is about the maximum of the Colorado allows when you’re going to do a feed in tariff, which is a fancy way of saying that you pay into the grid with electricity, the same rate that they charge you going to get it out. It’s a great system we’ve got here in rural Colorado. Most cities don’t have that option. Number one, you’re going to have to have a more profit driven electrical system. I work with a co-op, which means they’re not going to give you as generous of feed in rates and second cities by their very definition, are densely populated. Solar, by its very nature, has to be distributed.

So, yes, if you live in a traditional single family neighborhood with homes, with sizable roof lines and a lot of south facing frontage, you may, may, be able to have a decent solar quotient for your system, especially if you live in the American Southwest or California. But if you live in a mid-rise, much less a highrise, much less in a calculated city like Chicago or New York, there’s nowhere to put the panels in the first place. You’re going to put them outside of the city, and now you’re talking about transmission costs. And if you’re in New York, you’re not going to put it outside of city of New York because that’s equally cloudy. You’re going have to go down like central Virginia. And then there’s a half a dozen major cities between you and we’re going to be pulling your power from.

It’s not that solar can’t be part of the solution. It can. But it really only works in some very specific geographies like where I live, where it works really well. For us to fix this, three things need to change. Number one, we need panels that capture more of the sun and translate more of its energy into electricity. The rate of recovery for that has been incrementally going up for a while now. There is now panels on the drawing board, not on production, on the drawing board that can capture as much as half. That’s great. A huge step in the right direction. But you also then need transmission to get it from places that are sunny and you put up your solar panels where people actually live. And to do that at scale, we’re not just talking about high voltage lines that cross state lines, we’re talking about relatively room temperature semiconductors. And for those of you been following some of my other energy work, you know, the same thing is basically basically necessary for diffusion power as well. Single large facilities that you want nowhere near a city that can transport the power over hundreds of miles if necessary.

But the third thing that’s probably going to be the most problematic in the near term, and that’s capital. When you put up a solar farm or wind farm or any sort of green tech, you have to pay for it up front, which means you have to finance it. If you’re putting up a coal and natural gas plant, most of the cost of operating that plant over its lifespan is in fuel. So you pay for that as you go. The financing needs are not nearly as much. And with the baby boomers moving into mass retirement and liquidating all of their high velocity capital, all their stocks, all their bonds, everything is going into T-bills and cash. And the volume of capital that is available to finance green tech projects just isn’t going to be there at the scale we’ve become used to. And that’s not just for green tech. That’s for everything from car loans to borrowing to pay for super carriers, everything is going to get more expensive to finance. And since green tech must be financed upfront, it is going to be the economic subsector that’s probably going to suffer most dramatically over the next few years. Unless the technology changes, you change the technology on me. I reserve the right to change my mind.

Alright. That’s it for me. Until next time.

Material Processing: The Redheaded Stepchild

Today we’re talking about the overlooked redheaded stepchild between mining raw materials and incorporating those into a product…processing. Essentially throwing tons of energy at the ore through several steps and facilities, converting them into usable materials like aluminum or steel.

For the vast majority of materials, this processing is carried out in 1 of 2 locations – China or Russia. This is a result of subsidies or cheap energy. However, all of that is changing thanks to the collapsing demographics of these two societies.

The reason for the redheaded stepchild analogy is that processing is about to become very annoying for the rest of the world. Not because it’s expensive or difficult to do but because the decrease in supply is culminating with an increase in demand thanks to the green movement.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Join me on Feb. 17th for the webinar – Global Outlook: One Year into the Ukraine War.

We’ll dive into the global impacts the war has had on supply chains, agriculture, and much more. After my presentation we’ll have a Q&A portion to answer all those burning questions.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

TRANSCIPT

Hello from sunny Colorado, Peter Zeihan here. Today we’re going to talk about processing. So a lot of people are familiar with some of the issues and opportunities that come from any number of industrial materials, whether that’s iron ore or aluminum or lithium or cobalt. But in between the mining and the actually incorporating the product into something that we actually use like lithium into a battery or steel into a car, there is an intermediate processing step that tends to just kind of get ignored and that’s about to become a very large concern for any number of sectors and countries.
Once you get the raw material, the ore, the industrial material itself out of a mine, you then have to basically throw a lot of energy at it. Breaking down the orders to separate out the metals or the other materials that are within is an incredibly energy intensive process that usually takes place over several steps and within those several steps, not always can the same facility do all the same processing.
So for example, you can smelt bauxite in order to get an intermediate product that looks a lot like cocaine called alumina. But then a different facility is needed to basically electrocute the crap out of it in order to transform it into aluminum. And you’ve got processes like this for everything, typically for steel, your first step is to throw it into a foundry with some coal into a blast furnace, and then you get something called pig iron. And then as a rule, another facility will turn it into type of iron and steel that we use every day.
Now, the problem we’re facing is that most of the world’s materials processing is done in two specific locations. The first is in China. Now the Chinese have heavily subsidized their entire industrial base whenever they find a technology that they can master without needing input from another country. And since steel smelting was developed well over a century ago, this is something they have no problem doing. So they are by far the world’s largest producer of raw and finished steel. Though subsidies have taken the form in many cases of financial assistance. Basically, if you can get a bottomless supply of 0% loans and you can build whatever infrastructure you want, and that’s helped drive more profit driven industries out of business around the world.
The second big player is Russia, and this is largely because they have very cheap electricity, because when the Soviet system collapsed in 89, the entire industrial base basically went kaput, except for the electricity generation system. So what the Russians did was they would import raw materials, use their cheap power and their cheap coal to do the processing, and then export a degree of value added materials. And they do this pretty heavily with aluminum. They do this with chromium, they do with this what, titanium materials that they don’t really mine themselves, but they will bring them in for processing. There are very few materials in the world where this is not true. And if you’ve been following me for some time, you know that these are the two major countries that are facing the biggest demographic economic, financial and security crises of the world we’re evolving into.
So we need to prepare for a system where materials that come out of these two countries, intermediate and finished materials, maybe don’t go to zero, but certainly face a significant

collapse in the volume that they produce. There’s nothing about this that can’t be done anywhere else. It doesn’t even take a huge amount of time and it doesn’t even take a huge amount of money because a lot of this is technology that’s, you know, 50 or more years old. But that doesn’t mean it’s free. And that doesn’t mean we can do it overnight. And even if all siting and regulatory concerns vanish, you’re probably not going to put up a smelter for cobalt in the United States and anything less than a year.
So not only with the way technology is evolving do we need a lot more critical materials and not only with the industrialization of the United States, do we need a lot more steel and aluminum? And not only with the green transition, we need a lot more graphite and chromium and nickel. We’re also looking at losing a lot of the world’s processing capacity for these things all at the same time. Something’s going to have to give and that is going to be one of the greatest economic arguments, fights and perhaps even wars of the next ten years.
Stay tuned. We’ll talk about more of this sort of thing on and off for the next several months, because it’s getting to the point where it’s becoming not a hypothetical problem in the future, but a problem in the here and now.
Oh, hey, all this talk of processing reminds me that we are having a webinar on February 17 that is going to be going into the economic implications of the Ukraine war one year on, and the implications for Russian minerals and minerals processing is a big, big part of all of that. So we’re going to include the sign up information for that webinar at the end of this email. Feel free to come. Anyone who signs up is going to get a PDF of the full presentation, complete with the data and the graphics, as well as a link to the video itself for future ruminations.
Okay, that’s it for me. For real. Until next time

EV’s Not-so-little Dirty Secret(s)

Ok ok ok fine I’ll do it. For the past few months I’ve been putting out videos on a host of topics, and in pieces on automotive or trade or greentech or whatnot I’ve mentioned as an aside that electric vehicles are on average a bad idea that will not be with us all that much longer, but I’ve failed to make good on the promise of “a topic for another video”.

Well, here it is. It doesn’t really matter your angle of attack on this topic. EVs in their current form are a disaster strategically, economically and environmentally, and that’s before you consider the withering of Tesla.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Where in the World: Quartzite and Greentech

NB: The following video is one I recorded while on my annual backpacking trip in August; please excuse any potential anachronisms.

After a strenuous trek to Quartzite Peak, the views are what make it all worth it. While we’re on the topic of things that we hope are worth it, let’s talk about Greentech – solar and wind in particular.

The underlying goal of these green solutions is to produce clean energy at scale, that can be effectively used. Solar has surged into the spotlight, but the shadow it casts is often overlooked. I’m not saying there’s no place for solar energy, but hefty considerations need to be made beforehand.

Wind offers a more promising outlook; lower environmental impacts, reliability and better financials. However, both of these technologies have a long way to go before they are powering the world efficiently and effectively.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

The Fusion Breakthrough: 70 years in the Making

FUSION. The clean energy of the future. No carbon footprint. Bottomless. Cheap. Sound too good to be true? Well, if it looks like a duck…

Before I express my concerns, I want to acknowledge how monumental this step is. It’s taken 70 years to achieve what has just been done, so slow clap for the team that got us here. However, don’t go buying those fusion lamps just yet.

We still need a few more “breakthroughs” before fusion becomes the energy of the present. Think scale, transmission, and materials. It took us a long time to get here, so what’s another half-century…right?

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY