News recently broke that France has decided to officially recognize Palestinian statehood—a move welcomed by some and ignored by others. The fact of the matter is that there are certain entry-level requirements needed for a group of people to operate as a modern country, and Palestine fails to meet them. Most glaringly, Palestine in its present form consists of several different political entities controlling pockets of territory separated by Israeli-held land. Add to that the almost 100% important dependence for food and energy and we are looking at a state that could only survive by receiving continuous outside support.
And if you are one of those people advocating for a Palestine from the river to the sea, that will not solve anything. As much as people dislike the reality, the only way to begin to solve this decades-long problem is for the two parties to swallow their pride and make uncomfortable concessions.
Hey all. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from Oregon. Today we’re to talk about, the French recent recognition of the Palestinians as an independent country. The question is whether this moves anything in Gaza and the region at all. And the answer is really no. To be a a country. There’s a few things you have to have.
You have to have a a permanent, contiguous population. You have to have clearly defined borders. You have to have a government that can project power throughout that zone. And ideally, an economy that can support the population. And really, Palestine does not qualify. The single biggest problem, of course, is this is not one chunk of territory. It’s two.
If you’re being charitable, that’d be the Gaza Strip. And then you have the West Bank. But even within that, that’s not true. Even if you ignore the fact that there’s a war going on in Israel, has basically balkanized the Gaza Strip into a bunch of pieces. That happened a long time ago in the West Bank. And it’s not one piece.
It’s dozens. So the Palestinians, by any definition, can’t control their own territory and have been broken up into a few dozen different bits that in many cases are not on the same side. That’s problem two. There’s no single government here for TAA, which is the group that cut the peace deal with the Israelis all those years ago, controls the West Bank enclaves.
And Hamas, which is at war with Israel, controls the Gaza Strip. So this isn’t one government. This is several governments. Or if you’re being charitable to so it doesn’t qualify. Third, the borders. I mean, yeah, technically on a map to there. But again, Israel controls all of the territory between all of the and that’s before you consider the war in Gaza.
And then finally, there’s the economics of it. This is a chunk of land that imports well over 95% of its energy, and well over 95% of its food. And so there’s no way it could function as an independent state unless somebody pays for it to exist. And if you’re one of those horrible people who says that the solution is just to kill all the Jews and allow all of this territory to be Palestinian?
I’m sorry, that doesn’t help. And you’re also a monster because Israel imports over 90% of its energy. And based on who’s numbers you’re using, somewhere between 50% and 80% of its food before you consider the Palestinian territories. So there’s no version of this where it works. Unless it is done hand in glove with the Israeli government. So if you’re looking for a solution to the Palestinian problem, and it is a problem, it starts with talks with the Israeli government, which of course means that the Israeli government is the one who has a functional veto power.
And yes, yes, yes, that can get ugly and messy, but unfortunately it is the only way forward. Having somebody on the outside saying that the Palestinians are a thing achieves nothing.
