As the US steps back from NATO, which country is best suited to take the seat at the head of the table?
While the Germans have been the backbone of the EU’s financial model, they no longer have the people to keep up. So, who will step up? The French scratch this itch best, both militarily and as the future anchor of Europe. They have the most solid mix of everything necessary: population growth, nuclear arsenal, wine, etc.
There are some support players rising in the background as well. Poland and the Scandinavian countries have economies, militaries, and enough resilience to weather the storm that is headed for the EU. Together, these countries will define the future of Europe.
Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming from, where am I? Bottom of the Tilden Canyon in northwest Yosemite. Taking another question from the Patreon crowd, specifically with the United States stepping back from NATO, do you think anyone will step up, most notably France? Yes, but probably not for the reasons you’re thinking.
Europe has two institutions that define it NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, of which the United States and Canada are members.
Everyone else is in Europe and the European Union, of which 27. I think it’s like people keep coming and going. 27 countries are members. NATO is a military alliance. The EU is a economic and financial grouping. The problem is, is the economic and financial grouping is failing for demographic reasons. The country that is paid for everything to this point has been Germany primarily.
And Germany over the next ten years will basically age into an old folks home and convalescence can’t pay a lot of income. So, you’re going to have to see the entire European Union structure renegotiated away from the financial and economic union that we have right now. Because if there’s one thing the French are sure of, they’re not going to pay everyone to be part of the group.
But if you make it a political and a military grouping, perhaps affiliated with NATO, perhaps not, then you’re talking about something that plays to French proclivities and their strengths. Remember, this is a country that has an aircraft carrier. This is a country that has an independent nuclear arsenal, and this is the only major country in Europe that has seen population growth. So whatever future Europe has ten, 20, 30, 40 years from now, France is going to be by far the most important piece of it.
Second, there are a few other countries to look at. The number one is Poland. Poland is having a demographic moment. If they can’t get their birth rate up, they’re going to have some problems in 30 years.
But that’s a problem for 30 years from now. For now, they’re a robust economy. They’re getting to the manufacturer in every possible way. They’re getting to defense industries courtesy of the South Koreans and since they have the Ukraine war going on right on the doorstep, they’re getting very big into drone technology as well. So whatever the future of warfare looks like, the poles are about as prepared as you can be.
Everyone else is playing catch up. And then finally there’s a third group, the Scandinavians, mostly centered on Sweden. These are countries with better demographics, better financial situations. They’re not as dependent upon the European Union and the euro. In fact, some countries in the Scandinavian bloc aren’t even in the euro. So it could go away and they’ll probably be more or less okay.
I mean, it’ll be a it’ll be a hard couple of years, but, it doesn’t define them in the way that it defines countries like the Netherlands or Italy. These are also countries that have always maintained an independent defense posture. Sweden and Finland, most notably. So whatever future defense issues in Europe bubble up. Sweden, Poland and France are by far the ones to watch the most.
They’re also the ones to watch the most in terms of, economics, because their demographics are pretty good. And so if there is a post EU economic grouping in the region, these three are going to be part of it.
