The last time wheat exports from the former Soviet space were limited, it was due to a poor Siberian harvest in 2010. Within a few months wheat prices doubled globally, tripling in the markets heavily dependent upon Russia’s low-quality output. The region most affected was North Africa and the Middle East. That instability generated the series of coups, uprisings and wars we now know as the Arab Spring. Big deal? Yes. But by global standards the damage was limited to a single region.
Compared to the smoldering torch of the Arab Spring, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will trigger a global firestorm. In my new book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization, I use my trusty tools of demography and geopolitics to peer into the post-globalized future. In part due to American disinterest, in part due to Chinese instability, and most certainly in part due to the Ukraine War, we are getting a taste of what’s to come in global agricultural markets. And we are getting it right now.
Now we are gearing up for the release of our newest project – The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization. The new book breaks down the future shape of various economic sectors in a post-globalized world: finance, manufacturing, agriculture.
Consider the above map. Every country that is not green or blue is a food importer. Keeping the global population alive requires global peace and global supply chains. In the former Soviet world, that peace and those supply chains are gone forever. I’ve long said that we will never reach a global population of 9 billion. That future deglobalization will result in the death of a billion people by starvation. The future is here. The leading edge of the famines of tomorrow begin in 2022.
The breaking of trade relationships, spasms in energy pricing, and most certainly the Ukraine War will limit sharply what is possible in the world of agriculture, and do so more quickly than I have ever feared. Join us March 11 for a seminar on the impact of the Ukraine War on global agriculture. We’ll dive deep into the product and input disruptions that will shape our world this year, and deep into the future.
Can’t make it to the live webinar? No problem! All paid registrants will be sent a link to access the recording of the webinar and Q&A session, as well as a copy of presentation materials, after the live webinar concludes.