The Chinese Government has moved toward implementing an export ban on drones and drone components, with an eye toward making supply issues a particular headache for the United States and the Ukrainians.
In regard to the latter group, Kyiv has had particular success in utilizing drones in their war against Russia. From reconnaissance to swarm attacks to providing targeting data for UAVs, the Ukrainian war effort has been building and burning through thousands of drones.
While the design and rebuild activity is happening primarily within Ukraine, several key components: motors, flight controls, and especially the batteries and made in China. China’s massive supply of affordable parts is what drove the Ukrainians to make up for shortages within their arsenals with drones in the first place, and you can bet Moscow has been pushing China heavily to stop the flow of these parts to Ukraine.
As for the Americans, the Chinese are looking to respond to the bevy of tech export restrictions pushed through by the Biden administration, and Beijing is bracing for an onslaught of new Trump tariffs. Things like drone components are one of the few levers Beijing has in this fight.
But what will the ultimate outcomes be? This is an excellent opportunity for the United States and others in the West to start building out their own manufacturing capacity for these components—a win for both strategic and economic reasons. Even if the Chinese were everyone’s best buddies, the current Chinese system is dying. Literally. The Chinese government cannot hold back the impacts of the collapse of the population growth rate, and the Chinese economy is undeniably slowing down. The global economy’s reliance on Chinese overproduction is coming to an end, regardless of whether anyone wants it to or not.
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