*This video was recorded in May of 2024.
We’ve all stared at the stars thinking about the different ways the Ukraine War could end, but could a coup or revolution in Russia be the way it goes down? It sounds great, but there’s quite a few obstacles in the way.
The first option is a palace coup. Given that all the top Russian political figures are part of Putin’s cabal and have been thoroughly vetted for lack of ambition, this is fairly unlikely. What about a revolution? Despite the standard of living decreasing and economic challenges, public uprisings are unlikely given the nature of Russian culture. Historically speaking, revolutions in Russia have only occurred when military strength weakens significantly – and very suddenly.
So, even if a revolution did happen (and it likely will in the future), we probably wouldn’t know about it until that day. But once that first domino falls, it could lead to a complete restructuring of Russia as we know it.
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Hey, everyone. Peter Zeihan here, coming to you from the south of France and the National Park. One of the questions I’ve been getting repeatedly in Europe is, “Isn’t Russia due for a coup or a revolution or something?” People are looking for a way to end the Ukraine war quickly. Well, there are three problems with that.
Number one, I don’t think we’re going to see a palace coup anytime soon. Most of the people at the top of the Russian political heap are folks that Putin has known or trained for the last 30 years. One of the many characteristics of the Soviet system is that the intelligence folks tended to be in charge, especially after they threw an internal coup back in the early ’80s. That’s when the Andropov, Chernenko, Gorbachev trio came to power, all former intelligence officers. Putin is an heir to that legacy. Remember, he used to be stationed in East Germany to steal industrial secrets from the West. After that coup, everyone else in the communist hierarchy was basically purged. So, those were the people who took over the post-Soviet Russian system.
There are only about 120 of them left at this point, but all of them are personally loyal to Putin from their days in the KGB or are former interns of people like Putin. Take Alexey Miller at Gazprom, literally a former intern. They all see the world through the same lens, and they all owe their positions partly to Putin. Putin has spent the last 30 years purging this group of anyone who might be disloyal. So, number one, they see the world the same way. If something were to happen to Putin, they would probably have a really interesting conversation about who’s in charge next and then just prosecute the war more or less as it’s been going.
Number two, they’re personally loyal. About the only one of the 120 who might have the guts to try something a little scrappy would be Igor Sechin, a former gunrunner who now runs Rosneft, the state oil monopoly. He probably has the guts to kill Putin. But the other 119, if there’s anything they agree on, aside from seeing the world through the same lens, it’s that they all hate Igor Sechin. So, if Sechin did try something, he would probably be dead the next day. So, an internal palace coup is probably not going to happen.
That leaves the option of revolution. The standard of living in Russia is dropping. They can’t access Western goods or Western travel destinations. The economic elite, such as it is, is having a rough time of it. Inflation is an ongoing issue in many parts of the world, Russia included, because now the Russian industrial complex is being retooled to make tanks and refurbish military equipment. So, it’s not available for what paltry commercial goods it was capable of producing in the first place.
So, what about a revolution? Well, the problem is that this is not the West. These are not democratic societies. These are despotisms. As a result, you usually don’t get public uprisings in a place like Russia unless and until the standard of living tanks and the sense of nationhood itself is thrown into question. Russia has had popular uprisings in the past, but the Cold War wasn’t one. Basically, you have to see the Russian army disintegrate in a military campaign to the point that people know the strongmen are gone and broken. We’re not there yet, and there’s nothing on the short-term horizon in the Ukraine war that suggests we’re anywhere close.
For those thinking this is still perhaps the path forward, I don’t want to say you’re wrong because we do have a lot of similarities right now between what’s going on in Russia and what went on in the 1980s: similar economic dislocation, similar failure of state institutions. The best parallel I can draw is the Wagner rebellion of last year. We had a rogue paramilitary commander who marched on Moscow for a thousand miles. Much to Putin’s delight, not a single military officer joined him. But much to Putin’s despair, not a single military officer stood against Wagner either. No one loves Russia, just like no one loved the Soviet Union.
When this does go, and the odds are it will in time, the whole thing goes—the whole regime, the whole governing structure—just like it did in 1992. Because aside from the corrupt, there is no vested interest in maintaining this system. It just has to have some sort of short, sharp shock, like an extreme military defeat, for us to get from here to there.
So, are we going to see a revolution in Russia? Almost certainly. But there aren’t going to be any warning signs until the day it happens. And as soon as it’s over, that’s it for the Russian state. They don’t have enough time, demographically speaking, to try something new. So, when this is over, it’s over.
