Polish Deputy Prime Minister (and former Prime Minister) Jaroslaw Kaczynski caught my attention over the weekend when he mentioned that Poland would be open to hosting not only American forces, but also US nuclear weapons. Usually the statements of a country’s second banana would not show up on my radar, but Kaczynski’s statements are not to be dismissed. 

In addition to being a former PM himself, he is the head of Poland’s Law and Justice party founded along side his late identical twin brother (himself former Polish President and former mayor of Poland’s capital and largest city, Warsaw). Considered by many within Poland and Europe to be the most authoritative politician in the country and one of the most powerful in Europe, Kaczynski’s right-wing, populist Law and Order party is the most popular in Poland. 

So when he says that Poland is open to what is essentially a status of forces agreement, we can expect he has his finger on the pulse of Polish opinion. The Poles have paid a heavy price in almost all major European conflicts, but especially in both World Wars. As Russia continues its assault on neighboring Ukraine, Polish leadership understands that Moscow will soon have its eyes on the narrowest portion of the Northern European Plain: the Polish Gap, between the Carpathian Mountains and Masurian Lake District. Expect the Polish to do everything in their power to bring the full force of NATO and their strategic alliance with the Americans to help secure against Russian aggression.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

There has been much talk about how there are plenty of buyers for Russian oil – especially heavily discounted Russian oil – in absence of American and European buyers. The would-be buyers at the top of the list, India and China, certainly have been aggressive as of late in not only sending tankers to load up on Russian crude at Novorossiysk but in broadcasting to Western/NATO powers that they feel no shame in doing so. 

And if we’re being entirely honest, it’s not like Brussels or Washington nor their respective allies have had much interest in pursuing an Iran-sanctions style punitive regime for Asian buyers of Russian crude. At least, not until now. 

In light of the current and ongoing Russian bombardment of the critical Ukrainian port city of Odessa, and the first major salvo of alleged Russian war crimes evidence coming out of Ukraine, public support for harsher sanctions measures against Moscow isn’t going to abate anytime soon. If for some reason you had been betting/planning/hoping on Asian buyers to help keep the Russian energy industry (and buy extension, the Russian economy afloat), you might want to seriously rethink your position. 

Previous newsletters mentioned in the video: 

China, Oil, and the Ukraine War – Zeihan on Geopolitics

Odessa, and Beyond – Zeihan on Geopolitics

Russia’s Twilight War – Zeihan on Geopolitics

A Ukraine War and the End of Russia – Zeihan on Geopolitics

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Russia and Ukraine are key suppliers for two industrial inputs most of us really never think about: neon and palladium. Unless you’re involved in semiconductors or the manufacture of catalytic converters. And if you’re at all connected to the automobile sector, you’re already connected to both. 

Neon is one of the most abundant elements in the universe, but it is remarkably rare in our atmosphere – only about 18 ppm of the air we breathe is comprised of neon. Red, tubular lighting is what many associate with neon, but the bulk of global neon production is used as a buffering agent in the excimer lasers that make semiconductor lithography possible. 

The current global neon supply chain is a convoluted one, but roughly half of the highly purified neon produced in the world comes from Ukrainian suppliers. They in turn refine crude neon produced as a byproduct of Russian steelmaking…and Soviet defense planning (but more on that next week). 

The majority of global palladium production goes to catalytic converters for gasoline engines. It helps scrub hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and other things we shouldn’t breathe from vehicle exhaust. Of the remaining uses, one of the most important is within semiconductors.  To put it simply, palladium is used to help adhere the pins that conduct electricity on a chip. 

Russia alone accounts for 25% of palladium exports. You can see how markets reacted to the threat of supply losses below:

But what you can also note is what happened to palladium prices as global automobile manufacturing started to grind to a halt in the face of global chip shortages. The global semiconductor industry features a high degree of concentration at various stages of its supply chain, in both raw and intermediate components and manufacturing. 

What happens to chip suppliers if neon supplies remain offline for months? What happens to the global palladium market when demand from its primary users falls due to supply failures elsewhere in their supply chain? How much global supply chain risk is tied to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and what blind spots exist in your organization’s planning? 

Please join us next Tuesday, April 5 as we tackle these issues and more in our upcoming webinar The Ukraine War: Industrial Materials Edition. 

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Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Russia’s Wagner Group purports to be a “private security organization” – what you and I might otherwise call mercenaries. Plenty of groups like this exist around the world, but with an emphasis on private. 

The Wagner Group has many ties to Russian military intelligence (still known by its former acronym GRU) and tends to pop up in places where Russian interests are best served by individuals with some degree of plausible deniability of links to Russian national leadership. We’ve seen them most notably in Ukraine’s Donbas region, Syria and Libya, but they’ve been active everywhere from Venezuela to the Central African Republic to Mozambique.

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The Wagner Group affords Vladimir Putin the flexibility to pursue Russian interests without attracting too much pushback, both from the international community and from within the Russian state. As a result, Russia’s been able to play in a wide range of theaters far from the immediate realm of Russia’s borders. 

At least, they used to. With the recalling and redeployment of Wagner Group forces back to the Ukrainian theater, we’re seeing a reduction of resources the Russian state has to pursue multiple national policy objectives. It’s also another sign that Russia massively miscalculated how quickly they could engineer a total capitulation of the Ukrainian state and its people.

Russia’s invasion of the Republic was Georgia was in 2008, not in 2004 as stated in the video below. We regret the error.

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Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Steel is produced from iron ore, but to get from one to the other the ore must first be purified into pig iron (aka crude iron). Enter Russia and Ukraine, who source three-fifths of globally exported pig iron. Throw in Brazil and that fraction becomes four-fifths.
 
While most countries are heavily reliant on Russian and Ukrainian pig iron to feed their steel foundries, some will feel the effects of supply tightening worse than others. The United States receives over three million metric tons of pig iron from Russia and Ukraine, but also domestically produces over twenty million metric tons a year. Though it won’t be easy, we should be able to offset diminishing supply at least somewhat with increased production capacity. Weaker pig iron producing countries like Italy and Turkey, will have to find a new supplier. Quite a long trip from Brazil to the Mediterranean, assuming one can even find supplies to buy.
 
In the globalized economic system we live in (for now), the effects of even seemingly small supply disruptions ripple to everyone involved. As we witness the dissolution of this global network of trade (the main focus of my upcoming book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning, we can be sure to see multiple smaller-scale systems take its place. The challenge for the global economy moving forward is that Russia is a top five exporter of a wide array of industrial inputs—not just oil and gas, but iron, palladium, nickel, copper, silicon and more.
 
Join us on Tuesday, April 5 for our upcoming webinar, The Ukraine War: Industrial Materials Edition, where we’ll take a look at how supply disruptions out of Russia and Ukraine impact global supply chains with a particular focus on metals and minerals.

REGISTER FOR “THE UKRAINE WAR: INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS EDITION

Can’t make it to the live webinar? No problem! All paid registrants will be sent a link to access the recording of the webinar and Q&A session, as well as a copy of presentation materials, after the live webinar concludes. 

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Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Parts of my work are, from my point of view, easy. I’ve always found reading a map to tease out military and economic potentials and trends to be equal parts engaging and…relaxing. Demographics? That’s just math. We know exactly how many 30-year-olds we’ll have in 2050 because they’ve already all been born.
 
The hard part is timing. It’s one thing for me to use geography and demography to forecast the rise and fall of nations. It is quite another to say if said rise or fall will happen next decade, next year, or next Tuesday. We may find the future to be fascinating, but we all live in the now. That makes books a clean fit for me. From the day a book contract is signed, it is over a year before product hits the shelves. The gap between the final draft going to the printer – which for my new book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning, is TODAY!!! – to the release date is still nine weeks. The very format of books means I don’t need to dwell on tactical timing and can instead elucidate on the biggest of big sky issues.
 
EotW is a bit different from my previous books. This time, the focus is on what the economy looks like once we breach the horizon. The problem, unfortunately, is that the Ukraine War is hurtling us towards that horizon with screaming speed. Right now, we are living the transition from the here-and-now to the world detailed in EotW.
 
Which means my work of late has been less about mapping the future, and instead about providing some signposts for the road to that future. To that end we already have hosted a pair of seminars on the impact of the Ukraine War upon energy and agriculture. (Recordings remain available for purchase.) We now announce our third in this open-ended seminar series, the Ukraine War: Industrial Materials Edition, scheduled for April 5 at 1p Eastern / 9a Pacific. Just as Russia and Ukraine are central to all things oil and natural gas and wheat and fertilizer, so too are they central to all things steel and aluminum and copper and palladium and uranium. As always, after the presentation we’ll do our best to answer everyone’s questions.

REGISTER FOR “THE UKRAINE WAR: INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS EDITION

Can’t make it to the live webinar? No problem! All paid registrants will be sent a link to access the recording of the webinar and Q&A session, as well as a copy of presentation materials, after the live webinar concludes. 

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Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

I thought it would be helpful to collect our recent newsletters on the subject of Russia and Ukraine in a single place for easy reference. As a reminder, the Zeihan on Geopolitics newsletter is free, and a searchable archive of all past newsletters is available here on our website.

March 18, 2022: 
THE END OF RUSSIAN OIL

March 18, 2022:
UKRAINE, AND NUKES

March 17, 2022: 
THE END OF RUSSIAN FINANCE

March 14, 2022:
DEMOGRAPHICS, AND THE UKRAINE WAR

March 09, 2022:
DEAL WITH THE DEVIL(S)

March 08, 2022: 
CHINA, OIL, AND THE UKRAINE WAR

March 08, 2022: 
RUSSIA SANCTIONS, AND NICKEL

March 07, 2022:
FRIDAY — THE UKRAINE WAR: AGRICULTURE EDITION

March 06, 2022: 
ODESSA, AND BEYOND

March 03, 2022: 
WELCOME, A BIT OF BACKGROUND, AND HOW TO HELP

February 24, 2022:
RUSSIA’S TWILIGHT WAR

February 24, 2022:
THE INVASION OF UKRAINE AND RUSSIAN PRODUCT EXPORTS

February 24, 2022:
UKRAINE, AND RUSSIAN INVASION PATHS

February 21, 2022:
UKRAINE: THE WAR AFTER THE WAR

February 14, 2022:
RUSSIA’S UKRAINE GAMBIT

January 31, 2022:
NATURAL GAS AND UKRAINE

January 6, 2022: 
KAZAKHS PROTEST, AND RUSSIA REACTS

December 29, 2021:
A UKRAINE WAR AND THE END OF RUSSIA

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Our team at Zeihan on Geopolitics is uniquely positioned to help industry leaders safeguard their interests in a global system that seems increasingly headed toward chaos. Anyone with overseas investments, operations and personnel knows that the global landscape has only become more uncertain.

Leveraging nearly 40 years of combined experience in geopolitical analysis, research and intelligence our custom analytical products and keynote presentations help our clients avoid risk and maximize opportunities, with a special emphasis on the following regions and industries:

• The United States as an International Player
• China and Northeast Asia
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• India and South Asia
• The US Shale Revolution and Global Energy Markets
• Agriculture
• Global Transport and Supply Chains
• Manufacturing
• Finance
• Industrial Commodities

To learn more about how Zeihan on Geopolitics can help your organization, or to book Peter to speak at your next event please click the link below.

BOOK PETER FOR YOUR NEXT EVENT

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Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY