Russia and its military have lagged considerably behind the Ukrainians in several categories: logistics, communications, and especially in metabolizing and deploying new technology, such as drones. It is especially in this latter instance where Kyiv has shown a remarkable nimbleness over Moscow.
But the battle is now shifting to an artillery tit-for-tat in eastern Ukraine, where Stingers and short-range drones will be less useful for the Ukrainians. It is also exactly the kind of battle that the Russians have trained for, and is why I believe my overall assessment will still hold: that the Russians will ultimately overrun the Ukrainians, especially as the conflict moves past May.
Russia’s lagging technological prowess has several historical analogues. One of the best known is the Battle of Crimea, a battle that Russia ultimately lost. The outcome isn’t what I want to highlight here, but rather that Russia spent years and roughly half a million lives until it surrendered. In conflicts that Russia deems necessary to its survival–against Napoleon, the Brits and the French, the Germans, Hitler–the Russians will fight until they simply cannot fight any longer. Do not expect the current war in Ukraine to be any different.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.