Last week the Ukrainians got the news that the Biden administration issued the thumbs up for the Netherlands and Denmark to send Zelensky some F-16s. But this development is by no means black and white.
The F-16s come with some caveats. They won’t be arriving in time to impact the current counter-offensive, nor will there be enough of them in this first round. They’ll also need lots of logistical infrastructure to support them, so I wouldn’t expect this to impact the war effort until (at least) next year.
The green light on this first round of F-16s implies that the US (and other NATO countries) aren’t too far behind. And as the Russians dig themselves into economic isolation, the previously drawn lines around using long-range weaponry will continue to blur.
Prefer to read the transcript of the video?Click here
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Colorado. Today’s the 18th of August. And the news is that the Netherlands and Denmark have received approval from the Biden administration to send their F-16 fighter bomber aircraft to Ukraine as part of the defense of works. There’s a lot of things that are packed in here. Let’s start with the most obvious one.
Even if these things start to ship today, they’re not going to be there in sufficient numbers or with the infrastructure to support it in time to have any impact on this fighting season. So the summer counteroffensive that the Ukrainians are fighting in an attempt to break the Russian position in southern Ukraine and Crimea, they’re not going to be able to help with that at all.
There’s more to having the jets than simply having the pilots. You have to have the logistical infrastructure to supply them with fuel, with spare parts, especially with munitions. And they have to be able to do all of the repairs and all of the maintenance within Ukraine proper. Now, we know for certain that the United States has been doing steps to accelerate this process over the last few months.
We know that there have been a number of Ukrainian pilots across the United States and databases system that have been training on the F-16s and getting flight time. But there’s going to be a lot more that it needs to be done in terms of the maintenance side of the equation. Okay. So that’s piece one. This is something that’s going to affect over the winter and then into next year.
Second, the players, the Netherlands and Denmark basically run almost exclusively American equipped forces. So there is no way that this came out of left field. Copenhagen and The Hague undoubtedly have been coordinating with Washington since the beginning on this. And if they’re doing it, you can bet your ass that they’re going to be any number of NATO countries up to and including the United States who are going to be following suit now that the seal has been broken.
It’s just a question of timing. Now, again, this is something that’s going to impact operations over the winter and into next year. Not right now. Third, what’s next? The next big step of what the Ukrainians have on their wish list that they haven’t gotten is longer range weaponry that will allow them to strike deeper into the occupied territories and in their mind, ideally even into Russia proper.
Now, the primary reason why this specific request has been denied so far by all of the Western allies is they don’t want to provoke the Russians to direct fight. But as the Russians move deeper and deeper into isolation and as it becomes becomes possible that this is going to be a broader conflict in economic terms, even if not a military warrants.
That argument has been losing luster in a number of places in the Western world. No one wants to start World War Three, obviously, but it’s pretty obvious who’s doing the raping in the genocide, and that is No. One on the west side of the line. So we are going to see longer range weapon systems. I don’t want to comment on which ones because there’s any number of things that could come into play.
And the argument that they cannot be used within Russia proper is weakening as well. Now it’s a political decision if they decide to remove that structure. But if you look at what’s been happening over the last few weeks, the Ukrainians have been provided with storm shadow missiles by the Brits, and that’s a longer range weapon system, more than capable of striking into Russia proper.
But the Russians have not once used it to do so. At the same time, the Ukrainians developed a number of weapon systems, including drones launched by special forces troops and suicide drones that are maritime in style to directly attack Russian targets within Russia proper. They don’t necessarily need Western tech to take the war to Moscow. And since we’re seeing this blurring of capabilities, the idea that simply because a weapon has a range that could be problematic, that automatically is problematic.
That argument is fading very, very quickly. There’s still going to be a lot of brackets on all of this. This is not going to something that’s going to change overnight. But now that they’re going to be getting NATO’s fighter aircraft that clearly have the capacity, if you put an extended range fuel tank on them to strike Moscow directly.
You got to ask yourself, what else can be pushed across the line at this point? And that’s the discussion that’s going to be happening in Brussels and London and Berlin and Paris and Washington quite aggressively over the next couple of months. And by the time we get to the end of the year, I have no doubt that in addition to longer range missiles, artillery systems and jets, there’ll be a whole phalanx of additional technology going to be handed over in order to help the Ukrainians out.
And for those of you say that this is costing the United States too much. Number one, check your math. With the exception of two Patrick batteries, every single other thing that has been transferred from the United States at this point has been spare parts and decommissioned equipment that we were going to have to pay to dismantle. So in many ways, the Ukraine war has saved us a lot of money.
And second, if you think the money has been stolen, you’re literally just making that up. Call your congressperson because they have every day a full list of every piece of equipment, how it was used, how it was transferred, and how much money to actually cost the United States. And anyone who tells you otherwise is lying to you. All right.
Things over in Ukraine are in a bit of a holding period, which makes getting these updates out consistently that much harder…and let’s not forget that most of the data we’re seeing is shaky at best. But here’s what I got for you.
There are a few things of note. Ukraine is sending small waves of special forces across the Dnieper River to wreak havoc on that region. These small attacks have been pretty successful, thanks to the Russians shifting their focus to the east. This change in Russian strategy is an attempt to draw Ukrainian forces and attention away from hot spots like Zaporizhzhia.
The big thing here is that Ukraine doesn’t necessarily have to punch through all of Russia’s defenses. If they can push them back far enough to cut supply lines in the north and south, then Crimea could very well be a lost cause for the Russians. The Ukrainians have proven they are fully capable of consistently hitting a target – a.k.a the Kerch Bridge – so this is a genuine possibility.
Remember that shaky data coming out of Russia, well it doesn’t really make a difference for us. At the end of the day, Russia is completely hollowed out and no longer operates as a normal economy. They’ll never quite recover from this, but that doesn’t mean it’s the end of Russia… it’s just the new status quo.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
The Ukrainians and Russians had a hectic weekend, so let’s get caught up.
On Friday, the Ukrainians used a naval drone (a motorboat loaded with a crap ton of explosives) to hit a Russian vessel in the port of Novorossiysk. These naval drones have been successful so far; just look at the Kerch Strait Bridge. However, a naval drone hitting Novorossiysk would signal a considerable range increase OR that a third party is involved.
So how does this play into commercial shipping? On Saturday, the Ukrainians hit a Russian tanker with one of these drones. And if that marks the beginning of a trend, this will be a big problem for many people. As the Black Sea becomes a no-go zone, Russia’s global position will suffer because everything they do is dependent on free movement…if that goes up in smoke, everything does.
I’ve been surprised up to this point that not everything has gone up in smoke, but it’s looking like those days might be over. The “restraint” that we’ve seen from both sides has practically gone away overnight, and there will be huge whiplash effects. The oil industry, in particular, will face significant disruptions; most of that falling on China and the rest of East Asia.
A lot still needs to happen, but the Russians could be losing their strategic position in the water, their ability to penetrate global economies, and their ability to project power across the wider world…not to mention a complete reordering of international energy. So yeah, things are heating up.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Apologies that this video is a few days behind schedule; finding a signal up here in the mountains is harder than the hiking I’m doing.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock (or stuck in the mountains), you’ve probably heard that the Kerch Strait Bridge was attacked again. While this attack took Russia’s vehicular transport capabilities offline, there’s much more at stake here.
This bridge is Russia’s most important logistical infrastructure in this war. It serves as the primary method Russia uses to get equipment, troops, and fuel into the front. They fancy this route in particular because it is out of artillery range, unlike the mainland alternatives.
Due to the vehicle bomb attack last year, the Kerch Strait Bridge was already operating at a limited capacity; vehicle transport was fine, but only one of two rail lines was operational. So with this new attack taking the vehicle spans offline, the singular light cargo rail line is the last man standing.
This is bad news for Russia, and if they can’t fix it quickly, it could evolve into a massive global embarrassment. Right now, the Ukrainians have a chance to make a huge breakthrough, but if they can’t make it happen soon…it may never happen. So be sure to keep a close eye on Ukraine.
Note: A single lane of road traffic reopened on the bridge yesterday, but the point remains that there won’t be anything happening at scale.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Russia announced on Monday that the Black Sea grain deal will not be extended. This initiative has enabled Ukraine to export agricultural products through Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea; however, Ukrainian exports are only at a fraction of pre-war levels.
The termination of the grain deal should sound alarm bells for everyone. As one of the world’s largest grain exporters, Ukraine has played a vital role in feeding the world’s population. With exports already limited, the end of this deal will likely spark widespread shortages, price increases, and famine.
So why did Russia terminate the deal? Reports from the Kremlin state that not all conditions outlined in the deal had been met, so the agreement ceased to be valid. Admittedly, I’m a bit surprised that the intermittent coordination between Kyiv and Moscow lasted this long…and that’s before we even look at the Kerch Strait Bridge being attacked (again) on the eve of this deal’s expiration date.
Speaking of the recent attack, we’ll have an update on the Kerch Strait Bridge as soon as I can upload the video from the mountain tops here in Colorado.
To give you a refresher on the Black Sea Grain Deal and some context on how we got here, the video below contains my thoughts from August 2022 and March and June of 2023.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
The Russian state has kept a degree of separation from the Wagner Group for the past decade, but years of war crimes and avoided sanctions are about to come crashing down on Putin…
If you’re not familiar, the Wagner Group has been operating internationally as a gang of mercenaries and thugs since 2014. Most countries knew this was a branch of the Russian State, but many embraced the ‘legal deniability’ to protect trade and relations.
The Russian government just admitted that Wagner is, and always has been, an arm of the Russian State. Not only is this going to piss a lot of people off and start a new round of punitive sanctions, but it also means that the seizure of Wagner (aka Russian) assets will be starting up very soon.
Wagner’s capacity to operate internationally is going away, and Russia no longer has the ability to project power outside of the former Soviet space. So if you’re tired of hearing the name Yevgeny Prigozhin or Wagner, you’re probably in luck…
Prefer to read the transcript of the video?Click here
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Hello, everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Colorado. Today is the 27th of June. And the news is that the Russian government has admitted formally that Wagner is an arm of the Russian state to the tune of about $1,000,000,000 a year in terms of their outlays. Now, why is this important?
Now, Wagner was formed by the Russians, specifically by a guy by the name of Prigozhin back in 2013, 2014, in the lead up to the Donbass war, which is a war where the Russians basically created what we’re called little green men to fight on the other side of an international border and foment a, quote, secession war, and then under that pretext, move in regular forces. Well, no one really bought it, but the legal fiction did allow a degree of separation that gave especially the Europeans pause. And anyone who was looking for an excuse to continue normal relations with the Russians. The Germans are probably at the top of that list, grabbed onto that little flimsy bit of legalism with both hands and wouldn’t let go. In the years since, Wagner has been used by the Russian state in any number of conflicts all over the world, most notably in the Middle East and Africa. And in those operations, because it has not been a state entity, it has gleefully engaged in the series of massacres that are really war crimes by almost any definition. And so Wagner has been under sanction not just in the United States and the European Union, but Australia, Japan, a lot of other countries that we generally considered part of the you know, if you want, here’s a loaded term, civilized world – and are the the leaders of it are persona non grata at most of the world’s airports. Well, but as long as the Russians haven’t claimed that Wagner is one of their own from a government point of view, that it’s just a group of mercenaries, kind of like a Russian Blackwater, if you will, then that degree of legal separation allows Wagner to do what it wants might be under sanction, but it’s not like it’s under state sanction charges today.
Now that Vladimir Putin has said that Wagner is and always was part of the Russian state, assets of the Russian state can be seized in order to pay for things that Wagner has done in various countries. And whenever you have a government shift in one of the countries where Wagner is accused of war crimes or one bordering it, that has an influence in that area, you now have two things going on. Number one, the degree of legal installation is gone. Now, anything that Wagner does or has done, Moscow itself is culpable. And in a lot of circumstances, Wagner slash Russia have been compensated not with cash, but with, say, mineral concessions, with gold mines being a favorite. Those are now legally all up in the air. So the admission here not only is going to piss off a lot of people in Europe and generate an awful new round of punitive sanctions, it means that the assets of the Russian state and the assets of Wagner are now one and the same, and the same tools can go after all of them. And that flimsy legal pretext is completely gone now. And so anyone who had a line into a private asset by Wagner or public assets by Russia can now use those same tools to go after both. So we’re going to see a wrapping up of Wagner’s international economic position in a relatively short period of time. And it won’t take much of a government shift in places where Wagner has been accused of war crimes that include Sudan and the Central African Republic and Syria and Libya in order to see their military position wrapped up as well. And that, of course, assumes that nothing else goes wrong and several other things are going wrong.
So as you guys have obviously seen those Wagner through a kind of not-coup over the weekend and Wagner troops now have to pledge loyalty to the Russian state and hand over their heavy equipment to the Russian military. Some of them will. Some of them won’t. And what that means is there’s a smaller number of Wagner staff that are available to man all these international missions in the first place, even if the Russian government doesn’t go through and do a purge of them. And that purge is definitely coming. Remember that Vladimir Putin’s power center is not within the Russian military. They control it. But that’s not their power center. Their power center is within the security services, most notably the intelligence bureaus like the FSB and the GRU. And those institutions are very capable of doing a purge of personnel of people who are not physically in Russia. So we’re going to be seeing a lot of that. So Wagner’s capacity to function internationally is going to go down significantly. And since the Russian military no longer has the capacity to project beyond the former Soviet Union, you’re looking at all of this getting wrapped up one way or another, probably by the end of the year.
Despite all the hullabaloo about the not-coup in Russia over the weekend, this assessment that we had initially planned to publish still holds true for the tactical situation in Ukraine…as well as some of the strategic implications with the Russians.
Note: If you were following the Russia Coup Series over the weekend, you might have already seen the tactical update in this video. The second half (starting around 8:40) is the fundamentally new material.
Today’s newsletter comes to you from my parents’ front porch in Iowa.
We’re about three weeks into the Ukrainian counter-offensive, and most of the reports have left (more than) a little to be desired. While these tactical reports are lackluster, we must step back and break down the strategy behind everything. I’ll let the video speak for itself, but the main pieces we’re looking at revolve around movement and politics.
The Ukrainians are shifting their focus from command and control centers to munition dumps and infrastructure, allowing Ukraine to limit or, at the very least, complicate resupplies and the flow of Russian troops.
The nuclear discussion is finally happening in the US. A proposed joint resolution states any Russian (or Belarusian) action involving nuclear consequences will be considered an act of war under Article 5 of NATO. This is just a statement of intent, but at least they got the ball rolling on the strategic nuclear policy conversation.
Prefer to read the transcript of the video?Click here
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here. It’s the 23rd of June coming to you from Iowa and I’m at my parents, where I am in town for a birthday. So I’m here on the front porch talking about Ukraine because why the hell not?
There have been a lot of reports over the course of the last week about how the Ukrainian counteroffensive is not going particularly well. I’d be lying if I said that that is a thought that hasn’t occurred to me. But I’ve always tried to step back and not use tactical developments to inform strategic discussions because there is the whole fog of war thing going on. The Ukrainians are keeping mum about a lot of the details, whereas the Russians are just flat out lie and no one really has an accurate picture of what’s actually going on on the various fronts.
That said, we’re now well into the third week of the conflict and the Ukrainians haven’t achieved any sort of breakthrough. There’s two main lines of defense that the Russians are trying to hold. The first is a series of minefields, and the second is a series of more strategic defensive emplacements like Dragon’s Teeth and Trenches. And the Ukrainians haven’t really been able to get past the minefields to get to the real defenses yet.
And what that means is they’ve just kind of been bogged down in attritional fighting. And because the Russians have an order of magnitude more industrial plants and reserves and at least a factor of three more population, any battle in which the Ukrainians are duking it out a mano a mano is not one that they’re going to do well.
And in fact, any battle where the Ukrainians only kill three times as many Russians as they lose in their own troops is a battle they’ve lost. So instead of seeing the dramatic breakthroughs that we saw in person in Kharkiv last summer, it’s been a slugfest and it hasn’t gone well. That said, a couple things. Number one, we’re still early in the offensive, are still probing for weaknesses.
They’re still going after command and control. And then second, in the last 96 hours, a few things have changed. First of all, three or four days ago, Ukrainians shifted from using their missiles to target command and control systems to going after ammo dumps. And you would do that when you’re getting to the next phase of the operation. You feel like you’ve broken up their ability to react and now you’re trying to not just to trick their forces, but make sure that the forces cannot actually get meaningful supplies.
But the real issue happened with the morning of Thursday, the 22nd of June, when the Ukrainians put some serious holes in a few supply bridges that are critical for Russian forces. And to understand the significance of that targeting shift, we need to look at a few maps. Here’s our first map of the Ukrainian space. Nothing too exciting here.
The red line is roughly where the front is. The Russians occupied the territory to the east and south of that line and the yellow bars are where the Ukrainians have put their primary thrusts. Now, the the one on the left there, that’s the separatists, the front. The Ukrainians have been expected to go in that direction since the very beginning of this conflict, because if they can push down to the Sea of Azov, they can basically isolate the entirety of the southwestern front and Crimea, because not only would there no longer be a land bridge between Russia proper and Crimea, but the Ukrainians would be able to target the Kerch Strait Bridge directly.
But they’ve had more success going further into the east because there are fewer defensive works. But still in all these cases, you’re talking about advances in the single digits of kilometers. No sort of strategic breakthrough where mobile Russian forces excuse me, where mobile Ukrainian forces and getting behind the Russians and isolate them and break them up and for strategic retreats and routes.
Okay. Here’s a zoom in on Ukraine. The single most important thing here is, of course, the Kerch Bridge, an attack, unclaimed attack. We don’t really know who did it, but either the Americans, the Ukrainians took out one of the spans of the Kerch Bridge last summer. Now the Kerch Bridge has three lines to it to two lane road connections and one rail connection.
The Ukrainians, Americans, whoever it happened to be, were able to take out one of those two lane road connections and start a series of fires on a railcar that was going by on the rail bridge at that time, which warped the bridge and made it impossible to handle cargo. So no more trains in and out of Crimea from this route and used to be the primary route.
And only two of the four road lanes were being asked to go on truck. And when they do have convoys coming or going, they have to shut it down to other traffic. So that was a big hit and it forced the Russians to shift their supply route over to this area, to the land connections that go into Crimea.
So let’s zoom in there. Now, first thing to understand about this area is a lot of this is not land. This entire zone here is a series of brackish lakes, which obviously you’re not going to be running cargo across. In fact, there’s only really two ways to cross. On the left, you’ve got the proper land connection, which is in all land routes that goes through southern Ukraine.
It is the furthest connection from the front. It’s not that the infrastructure there doesn’t work. It’s just that it’s not great. However, if you go to the yellow arrow, the one further to the right to the east, you’re looking at the Charnock crossing. Now, China has a rail connection and a road connection, and it’s these connections that the Ukrainians put some holes in.
They use a special kind of warhead, which I’m not going to go into detail because it’s not my focus. But it blew all the way through the concrete blue, all the way through the rebar, put a giant hole right in the middle of the thing. You’re not taking trucks across that. You’re not taking the rail across that until such time as these are repaired.
Repaired. It is not beyond the capacity of the Russians. But keep in mind that it’s been months since Kerch had that whole put it and the rail connection there has still not been rebuilt. One of the many, many downsides of the Soviet dissolution is we’ve had a simultaneous education crisis and demographic crisis now decades in progress. The technical education system in Russia collapsed back in the eighties and the demographics of they’ve had a death rate that’s been higher than the birth rate for 30 years now, which means that the youngest suite of people who have the full skill set to be technical experts, they’re in their fifties right now, will turn 60 this year on
average. They still haven’t replaced the span encouraged. They still haven’t replaced the rail system. There’s a question as to whether they can. Now, the China crossing is not nearly sophisticated. Instead of being a high elevated suspension bridge, it’s a low block bridge. It’s not blocking navigation. This is not a navigable waterway system. They probably can do it, but it’s going to take them a few weeks, which means in the meantime, any cargo going to and from Ukraine has to come from that western bridge.
And this means that the soldiers in Ukraine, the Russian soldiers in occupied Ukraine, are facing a double bind. Back to this map. Notice the city of Mariupol. Basically, any Russian troops that are west of that zone have basically been cut off from supplies that come from Russia proper off in the east. They got everything they needed from Crimea, which is, you know, more difficult to support now and now with the China Bridge off line, it’s going to take about a week for the Russians to reroute everything further west to then cross a larger just a chunk of territory that would suggest to me that the Ukrainians are as ready as they can possibly be to
make a push in that direction. Now, coming down from the Japanese here, it doesn’t really matter where they penetrate. As long as they reach the Sea of Azov, it could be east of Mariupol, it could be west of multiple. It could be anywhere in between. Any way that they can cut that land bridge forever and then have the range in order to hit the remains of the bridge to wreck if we’re going to see an attack, if this counteroffensive is going to really manifest as something, these are exactly the circumstances you would expect the Ukrainians to shape.
And now they’ve done it. And since there is going to be a window before the Russians can redirect supplies further to the west, the troops in the multiple area are now completely cut off, vulnerable. They’re not going to get reinforcements. They’re not going to get fuel. They’re not going to get artillery shells and ammo. Now would be the time.
Now, that’s the strategic picture that we’re seeing right now. There is also something going on with the politics. Also on the 22nd. 22nd was a big day. Senators Blumenthal from Connecticut and Graham from South Carolina, a Democrat and a Republican, put out a joint resolution that they’re trying to get passed that would basically say that any Russian use or Belarus should use directly or indirectly through the proxies of a strategic nuclear weapon, a tactical nuclear weapon, or taking actions that they omission or commission cause.
A meltdown at a nuclear power plant would be considered an act of war under Article five of Nito. The Russians have, we know from satellite photos, mined the coolant from of the Japanese power plant Smuckers. Anyway, what the idea is to warn not just Putin, but the people who would get the orders that if they follow those orders, that they’re not just simply going to be new, causing a nuclear catastrophe in Ukraine proper, but it will be perceived by the United States and its allies as an act of war, and they will be choosing to initiate a direct military conflict with the United States and the natural lights.
Now, this interpretation of Article five is an executive privilege. It is not something Congress can really put their their fingers in. In addition, a joint resolution is just that. It’s a resolution. It’s not a law is a statement of intent. So there’s no legal weight here. Also, Article five is something that will be decided among the allies, not by the United States, unilaterally.
So this is probably not the right tool to effect, the right tool for the job. But I’m very glad that the two senators have started the conversation because the Russians have long considered for several years that Crimea is an integral part of their own territory, the annexed it back in 2014. And so anything that pushes towards Crimea, you’re crossing the gray zone where the Russians might actually consider that to be a real war where the use of defensive nuclear weapons might be warranted.
Now, that is not accepted in the United States or in the West. In fact, it’s not accepted in China. It’s not accepted by Ortega in Nicaragua. No country in the world has recognized the annexation of Crimea by the Russians. In fact, aside from some foreign pro-Russian shills like Tucker Carlson, no one in the United States considers Crimea to be Russian territory.
But it doesn’t matter what we think. It matters what the Russians think and whether or not they’re going to treat Crimea like Moscow. And there’s only one way to find out. In addition, if the Ukrainians are going to win this war, eventually they’re going to have to cross the international border, not just into Crimea, but into Russia proper and take out some logistics tackle hubs that are on Russian territory that is clearly crossing into what is internationally recognized Russian space.
And again, the defensive nuclear question comes into play. So while this isn’t the right tool for the job that the senators have picked up, I’m very happy that they have decided to at least start the conversation in this country about something we haven’t had a conversation on since the 1980s strategic nuclear, their policy vis a vis the Russians.
This is a conversation we have to have and this is going to sound really weird, but we probably have the best president in 30 years to have that conversation. Say what you will about Biden and there is a lot to say. He was there as an old man when the first nuclear weapon was detonated back in 1945, 44, four forties.
So he’s seen the entire arc of nuclear policy in this country and gives him a unique perspective that we’re going to need in the months to come. So things have broken loose. It looks like we’re on the verge of seeing the real counteroffensive, or at least if it’s going to happen. It’s going to happen now. And we’re at the dawn of a new stage of the conflict where we need to be thinking about some much deeper questions.
All right. That’s it for me. Everybody take care. See you next time.
For those of you who did more normal things this weekend, you missed a coup in Russia!
Or not.
As the saying goes, Russia is a mystery wrapped in an enigma inside a tuna salad sandwich that’s gone off.
Apparently the guy who launched the coup, Yevgeny Prigozin, the leader of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner, was only kidding. Whether his effort was a political stunt or negotiation tactic, it’s all over. It was fun while it lasted.
Here’s my assessment as to where things stand. There are certainly more questions than answers.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Whether at home or abroad, Russia is the world’s primary provider of lies, misinformation and propaganda. With the future of the Russian government now being challenged, expect wild, competing noise on any and all topics. The issue at hand is not all the Russian propagandists are on the same side.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Whether at home or abroad, Russia is the world’s primary provider of lies, misinformation and propaganda. With the future of the Russian government now being challenged, expect wild, competing noise on any and all topics. The issue at hand is not all the Russian propagandists are on the same side.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
