Why I’m Bullish on Houston

When you think about cities with bright futures, what are the factors you consider? Energy Production? Agriculture? Population? Manufacturing? There’s plenty more, but let’s focus on those.

Houston is a leader in all of that…and more. So once the global supply on each of these inputs and outputs dips into a deficit, Houston will be primed and ready to fill the need.

Established infrastructure + decreased supply = more money = more investment = Houston becoming one of the most dominant players in global production. Does me being bullish on Houston make a bit more sense now?

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Tanker Attacks and the Fall of Transport

In the early hours of November 16th, an oil tanker was struck by an armed drone off the coast of Oman. Strikes like this might not sink a ship with 1 or even 5 hits…but it is a sign of the changing times in maritime shipping.

As I mention in the transport section of my latest book – The End of the World is just the Beginning – “Inhibit [safe and cheap transport] and the rest of…everything simply falls apart.” What we saw yesterday was only the tip of the iceberg.

As the safety of the world’s shipping industry becomes more vulnerable, prices will increase and the long-range trade and maritime shipping the world has grown accustomed to will be changed forever.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Something Fishy in the Baltic Sea…

Something’s damaged the Nord Stream supply lines that transit through the Baltic Sea. Inconvenient in the best of times, sure, but in the current geopolitical climate there are tons of theories and fingers being pointed all around. 

Was it the Americans, wanting to prevent the Europeans from crawling back to an abusive natural gas supplier? The Russians themselves (despite already electing to voluntarily halt gas supplies?) Tough love from Baltic Euro states? Ukrainian Saboteurs? A freak accident? 

Frankly, none of the these theories hold up. This is one of those moments where as much as we’d like some immediate clarity, we’re simply going to have to wait and see…

We have never and will never charge for our newsletters or videos, but we do have an ask. If you enjoy our products, we ask you consider supporting MedShare by clicking one of the links below. MedShare is an established non-profit organization that helps respond to medical need globally, including to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Gazprom Declares Force Majeure: How We Got Here

Gazprom, the Russian state’s gas monopoly notified its European customers that it was declaring force majeure in its supply contracts going back to June 14, citing “extraordinary circumstances” preventing the delivery of natural gas. It’s easy to guess what the circumstances referenced are–the conflict in Ukraine, sanctions, etc. Is this just Russian brinksmanship? A negotiating chip?

Maybe. Probably not. We shouldn’t forget that Nord Stream 1, the direct gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, is currently undergoing routine maintenance until later this week. There’s still no strong indication that Russian gas supplies will resume in whole or in part, and with today’s declaration Moscow has legal cover to halt energy supplies to the economic heart of Europe. As if legal cover is all Russia needs. 

In the links below, we’ve included a series of videos I’ve recorded over the past few months that outline Russia’s strategy, Europe’s rather pitiful few options, and the rather bleak reality that Russia increasingly sees itself not just at war with Ukraine, but in direct conflict with Europe. To expect energy supplies to continue as normal is a fantasy that not even the most optimistic German industrialists can pretend to believe in anymore. The EU–especially Germany–and Russia both saw the increase of energy interconnectivity and pipeline politics (or “diplomacy”) or the past few decades as a game of increasing leverage. The question was always, for whom? Europe always hoped that it could entice Russian good behavior through economic linkages and purchase contracts. We’re likely to see in coming days where the power in this relationship, pun intended, really flows from.

April 30, 2022 – Russia’s Natural Gas Strategy

June 21, 2022 – The Ukraine War, a New Flashpoint, and the End of Europe’s Energy Innocence

July 11, 2022 – The End of Germany’s World

Electricity in Transition

California. Germany. Texas. France.

Not a normal grouping of places or policies or politics. Especially when one wants to talk about energy. All four, however, are in the midst of a transition to renewable or green energy production and find themselves with having to grapple with energy reality, popular expectations, the vagaries of climate and weather, and rising costs. And all are experiencing a mix of successes and failures, both in and out of their control.

The End of Germany’s World

Germany shut down the Nord Stream 1 Pipeline today for a pre-scheduled 10-day maintenance period. Whether or not Russian natural gas will resume westward flows to Germany after repairs are made is anybody’s guess. 

The 55 bcm/yr pipeline is a key component of the energy détente forged between Germany–the economic and manufacturing heart of Europe–and post-Cold War Russia. It has also inculcated a German dependency on Russian gas that has shaped German economic and security policy (and, by extension, Europe’s) since the project first entered the planning phase over 20 years ago.

For more information on the nature of Russian and German energy codependence, and the future of both, I would suggest the agriculture and manufacturing chapters of my newest book The End of the World is Just the Beginning as well as the Russia and Germany chapters of the last one, Disunited Nations.

The Ukraine War, a New Flashpoint, and the End of Europe’s Energy Innocence

I decided to limit my harassment of everyone (and my staff) this past holiday weekend, but I did want to thank everyone for being so supportive of the new book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning. It is doing disturbingly well on the charts and maybe, just maybe, we’re looking at a bestseller here? We’ll know when the lists come out June 26.

Anywhatever, the world didn’t stop simply because Americans were celebrating their newest national holiday and I was engaging in some much needed decompression, so I’ve taken the liberty of putting together a much-longer-than-normal videologue to encapsulate the two big events over the weekend. Both are Ukraine War related.

The first deals with a new flash point in the conflict. Not in Ukraine proper, but instead directly between the Europeans and Russians over Russia’s Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad. The second deals with the early stages of the collapse of the European energy system, with the immediate event being Germany’s decision to move back to coal in a very big way.

War. Energy shortages. Transport breakdowns. Famine on the horizon. It’s getting real out there. Stay safe.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Energy, Currencies and Inflation: Worse for Some

In the worlds of finance, trade, economies, currencies and energy there is a lot going on. We’ve a war in Ukraine that will likely generate the largest oil dislocation in modern history. The global Baby Boomer generation is retiring and taking their money with them, generating the largest financial dislocation in modern history. Presidents Trump and Biden are following the same script on trade issues, generating the largest trade dislocation in modern history. And the Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy in an effort to tamp down inflation.
 
The implications of all these seismic shifts are many and massive. Here’s two of them:
 
Whenever countries are struck by economic shocks – like, say, now – investors look for safer places to stash their money. Less money into tech, more into consumer products. Less money into Brazil, more into Europe. The safest of all safes is the United States, and so the U.S. dollar is on a bit of a tear, rising by roughly 10 percent verses most of the world’s currencies since the beginning of the year.
 
A rising dollar has any number of outcomes, but the one making the biggest splash at the moment is its impact upon energy markets.
 
Oil prices were already rising due to a variety of factors ranging from insufficient investment in new projects over the past several years, to disruptions in trade patterns, to, of course, the Ukraine War. For the United States this is known and obvious. But all commodity trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Oil is no exception. Combine oil’s price rise with a strengthening dollar and much of the world takes a double hit.
 
Brazil’s real has largely kept pace with the U.S. dollar, so this energy hit doesn’t land on Brazilians quite as hard. But Europe and Turkey? Those locales heavily depend upon Russian crude. Not only does that challenge their supply systems, it’s also contributed to the pair’s suffering from significant currency weakness. The end impact? In local currency terms, internationally sourced oil now costs 10-15% more in Europe and Turkey than it does in the United States.

Unfortunately, there is little reason to expect the world’s energy situation to improve within the next half decade, nor is there reason to expect the U.S. dollar to go anywhere but up for years to come. But that is a story for another day.
 
That day is … June 8. That’s when we’ll be hosting our next seminar, Inflation: Navigating the New Normal. You can sign up here.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Energy at the End of the World

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with info on how to preorder.

Here’s something a little different than the usual video updates from us. We typically seek to update your inbox with reactions to global events of consequence (if it seems like there are more of those than usual these days, boy do I have a book for you!).

About a month ago, however, I had to honor of speaking to a group of students at the Dwight D. Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy, a college of the National Defense University. 

I hope this presentation is valuable to those of you who are interested in long-term and more in-depth forecasts and analysis, and those of you who enjoy longer format presentations. My thanks to the Eisenhower School and NDU for sharing this video.

In this presentation I lay out my long-term forecast for global energy, cribbing heavily from the text of my upcoming book The End of the World is Just the Beginning. The book also contains similar long-term forecasts for global finance, agriculture, manufacturing, and transport. We are less than three weeks away from the books release date. Information below on how to pre-order for those of you who wish to support the new book.

As a reminder: the Afya foundation continues to support humanitarian efforts and refugees displaced by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Links below on how to help for those of you who are willing and able.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Global Energy at the End of the World

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with info on how to preorder.

Former Soviet states supply over 14 percent of the world’s energy. In this graphic from my new book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning, I ask the question: how long can former Soviet Union countries’ oil production last without Western technological assistance? Russia has invaded Ukraine and, just like that, we are going to find out the answer. With both Western oil majors and service companies heading for the door, we are already seeing lowered oil production. At the time of writing, the International Energy Agency forecasts that from May, nearly 3 million barrels a day in Russian production will be turned off.
 
With Russia’s production dimming, the world will look to the Persian Gulf for more oil and gas. Turning to the Persian Gulf, however, is simply swapping one conflict zone for another. Four-fifths of the Persian Gulf’s supply transits the Strait of Hormuz to reach its destination. Piracy can always be an issue. High food and agricultural input costs increase the possibility of social unrest in the region. In short, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine further destabilized an already unstable market.
 
As you can see, NAFTA supplies more gas and oil than it consumes, which is the ideal scenario. On the other hand, Europe, excluding the former Soviet states, cannot domestically satisfy its energy needs and is forced to rely on increasingly unstable import sources. Northeast Asia is in the same, if not more dire, boat. The EU at least has navies large enough to go out and secure its own oil. In Northeast Asia, only Japan has this capability.
 
To learn more on this topic make sure to look out for my upcoming book, which will be released June 14. We encourage those who can to preorder by clicking on the link below.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY