A Chinese Listening Post in Cuba: What It Means for the US

The news of a “new” Chinese listening post in Cuba sparks the question: why is Cuba so important to the US? No, we’re not talking about cigars. We’re talking about Cuba’s role in American strategic planning.

With control of the Florida Straits and the Straits of Yucatán, Cuba commands access to the Gulf of Mexico. For those who need a refresher, the gulf is critical to American power, capital generation, agriculture, and energy, second only to the Mississippi system. Hence the whole Cuban Missile Crisis back in the day.

Now I’m not worried about China playing any significant role in Cuba because they’ve had this post for years and China cannot command power at a distance. However, this doesn’t mean things won’t get interesting with Cuba. There are only a few ways that I could see this playing out.

Option one is the diplomatic route of bringing Cuba into the North American family or even NAFTA. Option two is the military route, which would involve America’s favorite pastime of overthrowing the government and/or occupation. OR Cuba and the US can meet somewhere in the middle and play a good ole fashion game of economic warfare.

In all reality, the US will probably just wait this out…unless a real threat to American security decides to try its luck.

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TRANSCIPT

Hey, everyone. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from the slightly less smoky Okanagan. Today we’re going to talk a little bit about Cuba. Specifically, there is news recently that the Chinese are maintaining a new listening post. That’s pretty much bullshit. It’s been there for years. In fact, the Biden administration came out a few days after the initial report said, yeah, it’s been there at least since 2019. Probably been there a little bit earlier.

Now, Cuba will always figure hot and heavy in American strategic planning because it controls the Straits of Florida in the Yucatan Straits, which command access to the Gulf of Mexico. And if, for whatever reason, the Greater Mississippi system could not trade with the rest of the world, that is the core of American power, capital generation and agriculture and energy. So kind of a big deal. And this is the reason why JFK almost got us into a nuclear war over the Cuban missile crisis back in the sixties because the Soviets were militarizing Cuba. Cuba itself certainly doesn’t have the military capacity to challenge the United States or to close the straits. But it could be a base for a hostile power from another hemisphere.

Of course, the conversation now is whether or not the Chinese are in that role. Not yet and probably not ever. The Chinese don’t have the ability to project power that sort of distance without, ironically, American assistance. So the only Chinese military base abroad, anywhere in the world is in Djibouti and it is only able to function there because the Americans basically indirectly help out with logistics and naval patrol.

So I’m not worried about that right now. That doesn’t mean that things with Cuba aren’t going to get interesting in the post-Cold War environment with the Russians no longer a significant factor in Havana. The question has been how long can Cuba last in this sort of environment? And there’s really two big paths that this could go. Number one is a diplomatic solution to the embargo and relations between the two. This is something that Barack Obama attempted sloppily and sophomorically, and ultimately was shot down by Congress. But the idea of bringing Cuba into the North American family, perhaps even into NAFTA, makes a lot of sense because the workers in Cuba are probably about a third as productive as Americans, but they work for 1/10 the cost. So it’d be a really good complement to what the Mexicans really need to industrialize more of their system right now. It would be a huge value add. Not to mention the boosts in agriculture and tourism. So some sort of negotiated deal makes a lot of sense, but we’d probably need a better negotiating team than what we had under Obama. But is literally every other president we’ve ever had. So, you know, don’t rule it out. It’s a political question on both sides. There just has to be willingness to work on it again. The second option is a more direct military option, which would include overthrowing the government or occupying it. And we’ve done that in the past, too, although not recently at the moment that is off the table. It would take a lot more provocation from the Cubans than hosting a listening post. They would have to actually accept more advanced military assistance and have a base. And the Chinese are simply not the power to do that. And the Russians no longer have the capacity either. So it would only happen if the United States president just woke up one day and said, you know what, let’s conquer Cuba. I don’t find that likely. And then between those two extremes, you get economic warfare. One of the things that we’ve discovered in a system that is as dysfunctional politically and economically as Cuba is, there are a lot of weak points. Probably the single biggest one is food. And that’s one of the reasons why when we had that proto deal with the Obama administration, that the United States used its agricultural surpluses as a way to induce the Cubans into making concessions. And it worked. The other one would be energy. The Cubans get almost all of their fuels from Venezuela. And so if you have a break in the Venezuelan system, all of a sudden the Cubans are high and dry and without fuel, diesel or power. So there’s a lot of ways that the Cuban system can kind of collapse under its own weight.

And as with everything with the United States, there is a belief in Washington accurately that we can outwait this problem. And unless we have some sort of acute challenge to American security, that’s just kind of the safest thing to do. It’s probably a good bet, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to last forever.

Alright, everyone, take care. See you next time.

Mr. Blinken goes to Beijing

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is heading to China to attempt to reset relations. He’s getting flack from both sides, and I won’t talk about that, but I do want to bring up three things…

China has descended into a cult of personality thanks to Xi Jinping. He’s ridded the government of anyone capable of conscious thought, so whatever he says = law. In a situation like this (where one man is trying to do EVERYTHING), it’s impossible to have meaningful diplomatic relations.

We have a dying super-power on our hands, and if America’s mitigation plan is to ignore them…there will be no options to manage the fallout. Blinken’s visit, at the very least, is a step towards figuring out what those options might be.

At its core, Blinken’s visit is about intelligence gathering. When you have a leader like Xi (who doesn’t talk to or trust anyone), it’s incredibly difficult to get information. So the only decent way to get info is through a trip like this.

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Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
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Post-COVID China: Will the Economy Bump or Slump?

As countries across the globe peeled back COVID restrictions, many of those economies saw huge (and much-needed) bumps. With China approaching six months since lifting its lockdown, the question on everyone’s mind is why hasn’t the world’s second-largest economy seen an economic bump?

I won’t hold my breath, and the Chinese shouldn’t, either. There is simply too much going on in the Chinese system for reopening to fix everything magically. Between countries pulling their manufacturing needs from China in favor of reshoring, a growing anti-China sentiment, and a terminal demographic situation…China isn’t looking so hot.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that China isn’t going to be getting a post-COVID bump. In all likelihood, they are probably going to experience an economic slump.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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TRANSCIPT

Hey everyone. Peter Zeihan here, still in Monterey. That’s my plane right there. We just got delayed for another hour. Anyway, on the topic of waiting, where is this ridiculous idea of a COVID recovery for the Chinese? I mean, come on, it’s been six months. I would argue that you really shouldn’t wait for it any longer. There’s a number of things that are going on that are structural for the Chinese system, that aren’t going to be fixed by anything as minor as reopening.

Most Chinese economic growth has been caused over the years by either investment in industrial plant to serve external markets or the production of goods to serve those external markets. So basically, think of offshoring onshore. That has been a lot of the growth story and especially the technological advance for these past 20 years that has probably peaked.A few things…

Number one, the world and especially the United States, has turned sharply anti-Chinese when it comes to investments. And so there’s a lot more effort to do things with friends or at home or at least nearby. Biggest beneficiaries of that so far have not just been the United States, but Mexico and Vietnam. Nothing’s changed there.

Second, the production costs in the United States system in terms of energy and labor productivity. Everything is lower than they are in China. So there are very, very few industries that have tried to move out of China back to the United States and discovered that it’s been anything other than a wondrous experience.

And third, there’s a personal, personal angle here where you’re going to drop $1,000,000,000 in a country in order to do a big investment. You know, you kind of go and scouted around first. And because of COVID, no American CEOs went to the country for the entirety of calendar year 2020, 2021 or 2022. If they did, they were subjected to the joys of literally an Eagle probe to check them for COVID. We like to call this an economic parlance, a non-tariff barrier. Well, the average turnover for an American CEO is five years. And if for, three-three and a half years, you couldn’t even get there. Well, the personal connection where CEOs would link their personal performance professionally to some sort of activity in China, well, that’s that’s all gone. And so we’ve seen interest at the corporate level drop as well.

On top of that, it’s turning out that the Chinese demographic picture is significantly worse than anyone thought. Worse than the Chinese thought. And it’s not so much that the Chinese population became older than the average American in 2018 and was passed by by the Indian population in 2022. But those milestones probably happened a decade ago. If you look at the new data that’s coming out of the Chinese, so the economic case isn’t there.

The personal case isn’t there, the investment case is it there? And that’s before you consider the Chinese have kind of become a bag of dicks in international diplomacy, this whole wolf warrior approach has soured a lot of people and made it less likely for Chinese tourists to be welcomed and less likely for countries to be interested in seeking that at all.

So when you look at flights in and out of China to other countries, the global average is only about 40 to 50% of pre-pandemic levels. So there hasn’t been that kind of burst of revenge tourism that we’ve seen in a lot of places and flights to and from the United States where the business has done. That’s only 6% of pre-COVID levels.

So we’ve had a significant shift of mindsets on all sides. And with the demographic collapse, meaning that consumption led growth was never possible again in China at bulk. Anyway, it really shouldn’t be a surprise that the Chinese are proving unable to have a post-COVID bump, which means we’re very close to a post-COVID slide, assuming nothing else goes wrong and a lot of other things are going wrong.

All right. See if I have another delay here…

Finally boarded. Oh, yeah. One more thing. We don’t know how many people, all right? We don’t know how many people died in China’s COVID experience. So I’m assuming that the anti-vaxxers are right. And this has never been worse than a common cold. That was a million people dead. People don’t spend money.

People who survived dead people tend to be kind of down in the dumps for a little bit of time. So the idea that there was ever going to be a big economic boom with China opened kind of throws in the face of, you know, logic and emotion, demographics and trade and a few other things. Anyway, I’m finally moving now from home by.

Talking China, Apple, and Europe w/ Motley Fool’s Bill Mann

If I had a nickel for every time I’ve been asked for investment advice, I could probably retire. Since I’m not going to give out investment advice (or retire), I present the next best thing…a convo with Bill Mann from The Motley Fool.

In this interview, we discussed some guiding principles behind my investment thought process. Specifically, we looked at China’s issues, Apple, de-dollarization, and the demographic problem that the FED is keeping an eye on.

I encourage you to give the following video a listen…

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First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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Iranian Seizure of Oil Tanker Could Spell Disaster for China

The Iranians have seized the Advantage Sweet, a Turkish-owned oil tanker carrying roughly 800,000 barrels of Crude. The press release (or should I say ‘slap on the wrist’) issued by the US Navy should have the Chinese very concerned about their supply lines.

Since World War II, the US has patrolled the sea lanes and enabled the safe flow of international resources and products. However, this incident is just another indication that the US is slowly stepping away from its commitment to the maritime order of protecting the high seas.

While the US can just shut down its international energy trade and operate with its neighbors in North America, places like China have much more at stake. Since China falls at the end of a very long supply chain, any disruptions could spell disaster for the Chinese economy; that’s only one of many issues they face.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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TRANSCIPT

Hey everyone. Peter Zeihan coming to you from Colorado. It is the 27th of April. You’ll be seeing this the morning of the 28th. The news that just came out is that the Iranians have snagged another tanker, a vessel called the Advantage Sweet, which is a SuezMax oil tanker, which means it probably is carrying about 800,000 barrels of crude. It is owned by a Turkish company and is registered in the Marshall Islands.

The U.S. Navy has issued a press release basically saying bad Iran, very, very bad Iran. And that’s it. This is your periodic reminder that when it comes to international energy markets, the U.S. just doesn’t care anymore. And if somebody wants to deal with Iran seizing tankers, then they will have to do it without the United States. This is a big change, of course in most people’s perceptions, especially compared to the policy sets that we have seen in the United States for the last several decades. But remember why those policy sets have existed. It’s not that the United States imports a lot of oil from the Middle East. It doesn’t, it really never has, but its allies do. And the entire basis of the American post-World War II global environment was that we will fight wars to protect resource flows and product flows so that “you” will sublimate your military needs to us. Basically, we will fight your economic war. So you don’t have to. And that gives us a free hand in control of your militaries in case of a confrontation with the Soviet Union. The Russians may be coming back in a big way, but they are not the Soviets and they do not have a global position. And so the United States, bit by bit under Obama, under Biden, under Trump, have all basically steadily reduced the American commitment to the maritime order that allows global trade and global energy markets to work. And so this Advantage Sweet, this tanker that’s been gone, the U.S. really doesn’t care.

But if you’re China, this is a problem because the entire existence of the Chinese economy and its strategic position is based on the idea that the United States, no matter what else happens, no matter what the Chinese do, no matter how much military action China carries out, that the Americans will still uphold civilian freedom of the seas. And as we’ve seen today, again, the U.S. has no interest in that anymore. So next time we do get a meaningful interruption to international energy flows, the United States basically closes its borders to energy trade. It’s self-sufficient within North America. And the Chinese are at the very end of a very long supply line that they have no hope of protecting. And that means they’ll deindustrialize. And that means it’s the end of China’s unified nation state. And of course, if you’ve been following me for a while, you know that that’s only one of the many reasons why the Chinese are going to end this decade.

Alright. That’s it for me. Till next time.

They’re Watching You: The TikTok Ban

The CCP is always watching…and no, I’m not talking about spy balloons today. Under the law in China, any company must cooperate with the government. So if you’ve got TikTok on your phone, you may want to watch your back.

However, there is an even scarier company out there, and it’s called META. Both companies collect the same data, but Zuckerberg takes this a step further. Your data is bundled, segmented, and sold to scammers as “Likely to fall for XYZ scam.”

The potential restrictions on TikTok are only the beginning of what I see as a necessary move toward protecting our personal information and data.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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TRANSCIPT

Hi Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Crown Point Overlook in New Zealand, just outside of Queenstown. The news that I’ve been following of late has to do with TikTok and everyone talking about how it is this government spy program and it needs to be banned. For those of you in what pretty for a while, you know, I’m a relatively laissez faire kind of guy for most things, but there are exceptions and this is absolutely one. Under law in China, any company, not an information company, not an Internet company, not a social media company, ANY company has to cooperate with their intelligence services for any reason at any time, in whatever way the Chinese government requires. So technically, every Chinese company is a security risk, especially one that you put on your phone. And with the technology as it currently exists with TikTok, even if you have the app closed, it’s recording everything you do, bank account information, your cell phone calls, everything. And what happens is the Chinese government, if they have an interest in you, they will go into tick tock and say, I want information about this person in this area, these keywords, that sort of thing.

They have to make a very specific request to go into the data and pull it and TikTok is legally required to cooperate and hand over all the information. So from a security point of view, absolutely TikTok is a threat, but there is a company out there that is at least an order of magnitude worse than TikTok and it is called Facebook because they collect data in exactly the same way. It’s just as invasive. But unlike TikTok, where the Chinese government has to then come in to go after you. Facebook does the work for them and they take all of their data from their billion plus users and they break them up into chunks of 10,000 based on what sort of fraud they think (Facebook thinks) you will fall for a religious scam, an anti-vaxxer or scam, a give money to the elderly scam, a save the children scam, whatever it happens to be. And then they take these packets of 10,000 and they go to a place in Vegas every year where the scammers get together for literal conventions and they market your data, they market your data to these entities. And of course, the Chinese government shows up for that. So does the Russian government. So the only way to be safe from these two apps is not simply to delete it off of your phone, but then to go through and do a full system reboot and purge. Because even if you have signed out of TikTok or Facebook, it is still collecting the data you actually have to delete the entire thing after signing out. Its the only way to get around it. 

So the restrictions on TikTok, I think they’re a great idea and I think they’re only the beginning of what we need to do to get our social media space back. Alright. OOOP weather just turned. We got to go. You guys take care.

Macron Tries to Reason with a Failing China

Today’s video is coming to you from Charteris Bay, New Zealand.

The week’s major news is that French President Macron is trying to bring Chinese President Xi to his senses. As Macron urges Xi to drop his support of Putin and the Russian war on Ukraine, we need to see why this conversation is even happening.

Russians like to blame the Americans for their shortcomings, and while this may have held some truth in the years following the Cold War, just about every country out there has an anti-Russian policy. The Chinese have jumped on the bandwagon and want to blame the US for their issues, but now most countries have developed their own anti-Chinese policies.

As the US steps back as the world’s police, these countries’ policies will play an even bigger part in the international space. While countries like the US and France may still operate as partners, each will put its own interests first. And countries like Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Australia, and India can even shape how China interacts with the rest of the world.

So what does all of this mean? China is simultaneously dealing with a multi-vectored opposition and mounting internal struggles. Between impending demographic collapse, single-pronged politics, and a crumbling financial system, the world can sit back and watch the Chinese system implode.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

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First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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TRANSCIPT

Everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Charteris Bay on the South Island of New Zealand, just outside of Christchurch. This is going to be one of my last recordings from New Zealand, but these are all being released out of order based on current events. So you’re going to see a little bit more of this gem that I used to call home in the weeks to come.

Anyway, the big issue from this last week, from my opinion, was that French President Macron has been visiting China to have talks with chairman is using ping and to try to talk him out of some of his degree of support for what’s going on in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Now, Chinese media has been blaring about what a wonderful summit this is and France’s idea of strategic independence, the idea that France, specifically in Europe in general, don’t have to follow the cue of the United States.

They’ve been really hitting that hard. And it kind of shows the degree of political disintegration within China has now even reached the diplomatic core. Let me unpack that a little bit. So one of the things that the Russians have always believed that the Chinese are now starting to say that they believe is that behind every plot and every downside and every setback that Moscow and Beijing have ever experienced is the American hand and that the Americans have been orchestrating and creating this alliance in order to contain and beat them back.

And during the Cold War, there was definitely something to that, because the policy really was containment. And in the aftermath of World War Two, all of the traditional powers that had bordered, the Soviets were broken in one way or the other. So the United States physically reconstructed them, provided them with economic aid, created a global system that allowed them to trade and access energy and markets.

And as a result, the United States received the authority to set their security policies. And while that certainly did contain and ultimately beat back the Soviet Union, it also gave the Soviets a lot of space. Because if you look at the time before 1945, the Soviets were dealing with a couple of dozen major countries, all of which had their own interests and all of them which viewed Russia as a mortal threat.

So whether it was Finland or Sweden or Norway or Denmark or Poland or Germany or France or Turkey or Japan, each of these independent countries had their own anti-Russia strategy. And one of the reasons why the Russians are so hosed now is a lot of these countries are coming back into their own because we are entering a post-American world.

Yes, the United States is, to a degree, riding a herd on what’s left of the alliance structure. But because the United States is a military structure has shifted now, because it’s now super carrier focused as opposed to having hundreds of ships, it can be everywhere at once. The United States just physically can’t be there at any given time.

And in the aftermath of the war on terror and the Iraq conflict, the United States isn’t going to be deploying land troops on a global basis for a very long time, if ever again. That leaves it to these independent countries to look after their own policy sets. And they have, historically speaking, been far more incisive, using far more invective and far more subtle and far more disruptive and far more subversive than anything the United States has ever done.

Yes, the United States is has been and will remain the single most powerful player, but it’s not the only one. And because of the nature of American foreign policy making, where you’ve got the president and the secretary of state and the national security adviser, and that’s about it. That’s the decision makers. The U.S. really has a hard time focusing on more than two or three things at a time, whereas if you’re in, say, France, you can focus on issues closer to the horizon with more intensive ness.

And so the Chinese inability to make this distinction means that they’re preparing for a world where the United States is riding herd in an alliance that doesn’t exist. And that means everything else is going to be able to come through the crap, because anyone who has studied French policy knows that the French are wildly creative at causing problems for countries they don’t like, for whatever reason.

So are the French and the Americans going to operate side by side with no light between them? No. The partners were friends to a degree. We’re even family, but we don’t always see the things through the same light. And yes, Washington does find that annoying from time to time as the French, from our point of view, go off.

But the French are doing things for the French and they’re not for certainly not doing it for the Chinese or the Russians. So that’s kind of piece. One piece to is look at the array of countries that are going to be doing this. The French are actually a minor power in the East Asian sphere. I would be far more concerned about countries like Japan, which has the world’s second largest blue water navy, who has the capacity of shutting down the sea lanes that go to and from China without help from the United States.

I’d be worried about the Taiwanese because, well, militarily, they’re not going to conquer the mainland anytime soon. They still have the intelligence apparatus operating within China already. This is the only thing that they care about because a significant amount of harm and disruption and of course, gather information for others and worry about Vietnam, which has a coastline on the South China Sea that’s over a thousand miles long.

But the Chinese have to sail down. The Vietnamese don’t even need a navy to disrupt Chinese commerce. I’d worry about Australia, which is in the process of building nuclear submarines and more importantly, mid-range air launched cruise missiles, which could disrupt everything the Chinese can do. I would worry about India, who doesn’t even have to leave home in order to completely wreck the Chinese economy.

None of these countries, with the possible exception of Australia, really operate as deputies of the United States. All of them are creative. All of them have their own capacities and all of them have their own reasons for tearing down the Chinese system in its current form. China is dealing with a multitude vectored opposition of countries that can think for themselves and act for themselves.

Now, why would the Chinese let them fall into this trap? I mean, this really is Soviet style groupthink in play here. Are the Chinese smart or don’t they think three steps ahead, aren’t they the chess players while the Americans are the checkers players? Yeah, that’s a bunch of bullshit. About seven or eight years ago, the cult of personality forming up in China reached the point of no return, and it started taking the official form of something called Jinping thought.

And that sounds a little bit groupthink ish. It’s because it is. The idea is not only do we have a party ideology, we have one dude who’s setting our goal, setting the process that we use to think and evaluate everything. And we need to all think like him. So in his first five years as Premier, she purged the party of everyone who was an alternate power center against him.

And in the second five years, he went against anyone who has any independent decision making at all. So there’s no one left. It’s just him and his little form of groupthink is now all that is left. So Chinese diplomacy, Chinese defense planning used to be multifactor. They used to have a good intelligence system. They used to have a good propaganda system.

But over the course of the last few years that has dissolved completely and all that is left is this monochromatic thought process that is fixated on a story that is wildly inaccurate, and that is what guides all Chinese decision making now. For those of you been following for me for a while, you know, I think that the demographic situation in China is far passed terminal.

It’s a country killer, you know that. I think the financial system is far passed terminal and that’s a country killer. And now we have a race with political incompetence as to what is actually going to kill the country first. Now and the long view of history. It doesn’t really matter if you’re killed by the car wreck falling off of a cliff or heart disease.

But for playing up the history in the here and now for the next several years, it really will matter. And if it’s policy incompetence that really leads China to its end. The impact on the Chinese population will be particular, really horrific because this is a country that is dependent upon international connections, not just for its economic wear for all, but for its energy and its food supplies.

And the last time we had that sort of break, it was another period where an individual on the Chinese system impressed his version of ideology into everyone’s thinking and that was Mao Zedong thought. And that led to the Cultural Revolution, the great leap forward and the death of tens of millions of his own countrymen from famine and political purges.

We are entering the situation where that’s one of the better scenarios for China for the next decade or two. All right. You all take care. See you next time.

Taiwan Loses Honduran Support to China

Today’s rainbow is brought to you by Wanaka, New Zealand.

For those following Chinese relations, you’ve probably heard that Honduras just dropped its recognition of Taiwan to establish ties with mainland China. President Tsai responded with a trip to Central America to shore up diplomatic support, but will any of this determine the status of relations between Taiwan, China, and the rest of the world?

While all this makes for good theater, all that matters is where the money and weapons go. And the country to watch is the US.


Taiwan and US trade negotiations are already underway and will likely be wrapped up here soon. Once they’ve reached an agreement and Taiwan becomes a fully integrated trade partner, they’ll be treated as an independent country in every capacity but name.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

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Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
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TRANSCIPT

Hey Everyone. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Wanaka, New Zealand, which is just a place too beautiful really for words. I mean, look at this. This is the full arch. It’s just stupid. 

Anyway, for those of you who have been following Chinese relations, you know that the Chinese have been able to convince the country of Honduras to switch the recognition from Taiwan to Beijing. And as a result, the president of Taiwan, President Tsai, is on her way to do a Central American tour to try to shore up the diplomatic support for the remaining handful of countries that still recognize Taiwan as the rightful representative of the Chinese people. Ultimately, this is a lot of theater. Taiwan’s a small country. China is huge. And when it comes down to a battle of the pocketbooks, obviously Taiwan is going to lose.

But honestly, that is not what is going to decide the status of relations between the island of the mainland and the island in the rest of the world. That is dependent upon the actual policies as opposed to things like recognition, but actually where you’re putting your money and your weapons with much larger countries. And of course, the country that is always going to matter the most in that is the United States. And the United States has begun free trade negotiations with the Taiwanese. That will probably wrap up within a year, at which point treating Taiwan as an independent country will not simply be core to American bipartisan foreign policy, but a core to domestic economic and trade policy as well. And when that happens, it really doesn’t matter what the du jour system is for recognizing Taiwan as an independent country or not, because it will be a fully fledged integrated system in American law. And once that happens, the degree to which the United States can take action and promote military ties is going to be just like it will be for any other country. And we will have recognition by the United States of Taiwan as an independent country in everything that matters except for name. And undoing that is something that would require an American president to do something that is starkly against what has been the building bipartisan consensus now for 15 years.

So we’re getting to full recognition. We’re getting there very quickly, and we’re not doing it by paper. We’re doing it with the rubber hitting the road. Anyway, that’s it for me on that topic. I’ll see you guys again soon.

The Russian & Chinese “Partnership”

Russia has long operated under the guise of “strategic partnerships” to keep its enemies within striking distance. Putin and Xi’s partnership is no different. However, only time will tell who will end up with the knife in their back.

For both sides, this is an alliance of convenience enabling them to get around some sanctions brought on by the war in Ukraine. But the Chinese might be looking to gain a little more from this relationship. Xi’s recent meeting with the leaders from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan is indicative that a move on the Russian space could be in the cards.

One of Putin’s motivations for the war in Ukraine is to take control of the geographic access points used to launch assaults against the Russians. Can you guess where one of those access points just so happens to be? The Altai Gap…which connects Russia, Kazakhstan, and you guessed it, China.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

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The Jordan Harbinger Show

I recently had the opportunity to sit down with Jordan Harbinger on “The Jordan Harbinger Show” (for the loyal followers, you’ll know this is my second appearance).

We discussed how the globalized world came to be, the factors contributing to its instability, and how the process of deglobalization is well underway. The chaos the world is about to face is nearly impossible to consolidate into an hour long podcast, but this is a good start!

Links to the podcasts, YouTube videos, and more can all be found below.

Geopolitical Strategist on China’s Upcoming Collapse JHS Ep. 781

Confronting a Geopolitical Strategist on Putin’s Big Plan Peter Zeihan Ep. 640

*This video is from my first appearance on The Jordan Harbinger Show

Did you miss out on the Global Outlook Webinar
Click the link below to purchase it:

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY