We’ve got a map with this one. We’ll be putting it into the video as well, but there’s a lot going on and you might want to hang on to this for reference.
There are three main assaults to follow: one of strategic importance and the others being a mix of strategic and emotional significance.
The purely strategic assault is a multi-pronged move on Zaporizhia in hopes of pushing south to the Sea of Azov. This would sever the land bridges of Ukraine proper and Russia proper…splitting the front in two.
The second assault was supposed to be an amphibious assault further down the river that would eventually cut off the Crimean Peninsula. The Russians foiled those plans with the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam.
The third assault is a push east into the Donbas. This would be no easy feat, but it’s on the table for one reason: if the Ukrainians can reclaim territory that Russia seized in 2014, it would be a global humiliation. Humiliating enough to convince some of those Russian backers to reconsider their allegiances.
Oh yeah, one more thing:
The information on the Zaporizhia offensive comes from Russian military bloggers, not the Ukrainians. Kyiv seems to have operational security down. I’ve heard a lot of details, but nothing that I’m in a position to authenticate. Ergo, this video’s broad-brush approach.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
I don’t usually do this, but today I’m going to be talking about the #haters. We’ll also dive a little deeper into the Kakhovka Dam that was destroyed by the Russians.
I’ll let the video speak for itself today, but I’ll leave you with two thoughts.
Number 1: If you need to get across a dam, why would you blow it up before you cross it?
Number 2: If you’re not a bot or troll, maybe come up with a username other than @Tony89380945
Prefer to read the transcript of the video?Click here
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Hey everyone. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from my favorite front range Foothills Trail. It’s called The Golden Banner. I can see in the South all the way to Castle Rock in the North, all the way to the Red Rocks Amphitheater, which is a great place to see a show. By the way, I’m going to do something today that I don’t normally do. I’m going to talk about the haters.
Yesterday I released a video where guys that would be this morning released a video on why the Russians blew up the Kakhovka Dam and people came out of the woodwork to say, I doesn’t I didn’t know what I was talking about. And obviously it was the Ukrainians. Just to give you a quick refresher, two things.
Number one, the Ukrainians are starting their counteroffensive and by blowing up the dam, what the Russians have done is they’ve made a direct crossing of the dam impossible, obviously, but they’ve also made an amphibious landing on either side of the dam, on the river, impossible, because the reservoir above the river is now draining very, very quickly. And independent of that being a dangerous environment, it’s going to leave behind a muddy bed, which is going be very difficult to get any vehicles across. And then south of the river, everything is flooded. And when the waters do recede a couple of weeks from now, again, very, very muddy and difficult to move. So any sort of amphibious landing is going to be impossible. In addition, most of the thrust probably is going to be south from Japanese to towards the Sea of Azov. And in that sort of scenario, Russian forces are going to have a choice of going one or two directions, then go east to the Donbas and get back to Mother Russia, or then go southwest and cross over into the Crimean peninsula. If the Ukrainians had been able to capture the Kakhovka dam rather than have it destroyed, they had the chance of actually cutting those forces off. And then you might have tens of thousands of encircled Russian troops that would have to surrender. And the global hit to Russian power from that would have been immense. That is now completely off the table.
So from a purely military perspective, the Russians made a wise move. There’s also a long term economic issue. A million acres of southern Ukraine is no longer going to irrigation water because it came from that reservoir. Water levels now drop below the levels of the canal. So they’re dry aside from a few pockets of dry wheat. That’s it. So you’ve just taken the single largest chunk of agricultural land in history offline all at once. Yikes. Anyway, back to the dam.
This might seem kind of simple, but dams are giant pieces of reinforced concrete that are hundreds of feet thick at the base. This thing’s 1500 feet from one side to the other, is at least 200 feet thick, probably thicker. So we just don’t keep good data on that for the rest of us. And you don’t just throw a few bombs at this. If you want to take out the dam from the air, you attack the weak points. Those are specifically the control gates and the navigation locks that you have on both sides up and below. That’s not what was hit. If the navigation logs were hit, that would be where the water is flowing through there high and dry now. And if the control gates were hit, that wouldn’t have necessarily led to a structural failure across the entire length of the dam, which is exactly what we’re seeing now. This thing was blown up from the inside, specifically with tons of explosives, specifically located in the turbine room. And for the Ukrainians to have done that, they would have had to have launched an attack on the dam. Somehow the Russians, who have been preparing for this for a year, didn’t notice and then managed to smuggle like two cargo trucks worth of explosives and place them and hit the trigger. No, no, no, no, no, no. You’re also not going to do this with 500 pound bombs, or at least not one or two. So, you know, the other aircraft idea is like a direct attack on the dam. Well, I mean, number one, that requires aircraft and there is no indication of aircraft or anti aircraft fire in this area that night. And you’re not going to do it with one plane you’re into with several because it takes a lot to crack one of these suckers open.
And then third, Ukraine, you don’t have fighter bombers. I mean, they inherited a few from the Soviet Union. They had the beginning of the war. They haven’t been flying them because they’re not any good in the dogfight role and they don’t have the bombs that would be necessary anyway. So you’re talking about what, multiple dumb drops with weapons that they don’t have from platforms that they really don’t fly? I’m sorry. The people who say that this was Ukraine are just headless at this point anyway. Well, I guess that’s the whole point. They’re bots or trolls. So this was definitely the Russians.
One more thing. And yes, sometimes dams fail, but there’s always warning. You’ll have cracks, you’ll have leaks. They don’t fail catastrophically overnight. And yeah, yeah, this has been in a war zone, but it’s not like it’s been under attack and for it to all fail catastrophically from within on the day that the Ukrainians are starting their counteroffensive. Yeah, no.
Let’s talk about bots and trolls. So I have always had to deal with a lot of bots and a lot of trolls from a lot of places with the Russians probably being at the top of that list, they at one point were probably about ten, maybe even 15% of my total followers just before the war started. But then the war started. And when the war started, Western governments and the social media companies decided that enough was enough. And they had a broad scale purge of the Russian presence, both from the social media platforms themselves and the crackdown on the financial transfers that allowed them to hire trolls in other countries to make it look like they weren’t, you know, Russian sourced. That all went away in the first two weeks of the war. And I probably saw the number of trolls and bots on my platform dropped by 99%. But then Elon Musk took over and said that this violates his idea of free speech. And so they’re all back. In fact, I’d argue that there’s twice as many now. It’s the were before the war and they all came out of the woodwork in the last 24 hours to scream at me over a thing. What do you do about bots? What do you do about trolls? So first you have to identify them as a rule. If they have a lot of numbers after the line, you know, it’s a troll or you know it’s a bot because there’s not a lot of creativity that’s put into the profiles. If you really want to, you can scan through their feed and you’ll see that a lot of these guys quote one another. I mean, I think a lot of these guys quote one another. So it really is kind of just a circular economy of crap. It don’t trade with them. If you do, they will make it into your feed on a regular basis, as will their friends. The way Musk has rejiggered the algorithm is any engagement from you. It shows interest. So if there’s a topic you don’t care about, if you just think they’re completely wrong and misinformation, don’t engage because you’ll get more and more and more and more of that. Third, don’t block them, mute them. If you block them, they’re going to know and they’re going to move on and try a different strategy. But if you mute them, they don’t know and they’re screaming into the void and they want to ever show up on your feed or your platform again. And then they’re wasting their time and their money and not yours. So hopefully this clears up a few things. For those of you who are real people in real followers, I hope this filled in some gaps for you.
For those of you who are trolls, you can always reach me at my direct personal email – I’[email protected]
On June 6th, the Russians destroyed the Nova Kakhovka Dam at the head of a large reservoir on the Dnieper River. This is a logical move for the Russians…at least in the short term.
To impede the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the Russians eliminated one of the few viable land crossings in the area and caused flooding further downriver. I wouldn’t expect this to be an isolated event, either. As the Russians seek to inhibit Ukrainian advances, other crossings and dams will likely be targeted.
In addition, the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant’s coolant water could be jeopardized by this move. As of now, it appears there will not be a crisis, but I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed.
However, the key component of this move illuminates what Russia’s strategy might be; by destroying the Nova Kakhovka Dam, they wiped out four canal systems…three of which represent critical infrastructure for agriculture in southern Ukraine and Crimea. Russia has made it clear they have little intention of holding this land – and are attempting to make it as hard as possible for anyone else to do so.
By adopting this scorched earth policy, Russia could very well trigger ANOTHER famine throughout this region.
Prefer to read the transcript of the video?Click here
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from the campus of the University of Toronto. It is June six. And the news today is that the Russians have blown up the Kakhovka dam, which is at the head of a large reservoir on Ukraine’s central river, the Dnieper. It was blown up from the inside. So it was definitely the Russians. It wasn’t an external explosion. So there’s really no controversy there. And the fact that after I tweeted it out, I got just an avalanche of Russian bots saying otherwise pretty much proves the point for as far as I’m concerned. But anyway, regardless of why it’s gone – four things that matter for us.
First of all, from a purely military point of view, like putting humanitarian issues to the side, we’ll get to that later. This is a reasonable play. The Ukrainians are getting ready for a significant military offensive and at least in part that was going to involve a series of amphibious strikes across the Dnieper River, both above and below the dam. That probably can’t happen now. The reservoir behind it is huge, and it’s going to take a few days for it to drain and that it’s going to expose muddy lakebed. And downstream you’re talking about massive flooding, which when it finally goes down a week or two from now, will also be incredibly muddy. So the offensive to this point has been delayed because of spring melt and winter rains and all of the mud that goes with that. You basically take in this entire zone and made it no go for at least a month now. Later on when the river is lower, it might be easier to cross. But for the here and now and for the next few weeks, absolutely not. So if you’re Russian, there’s some certain logic to destroying the dam. It’s also the only crossing on the river in the lower section. So you’ve now removed even a theoretical place for the Ukrainians to punch across the river on land or reinforce with amphibious assaults from elsewhere. So number one.
Number two, there is a concern upstream of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant because it drew its coolant water from the reservoir. Now, we’ve poked into this a little bit, and the folks at the IAEA are not hugely concerned about this. They think there’s a good backup system in place. But whenever I hear lack of coolant, water, nuclear power plant, I do get a little nervous. So it’s probably, probably not a crisis. We’ll see.
Third, we should expect to see more activities like this. This is not the only crossing. There was a bridge to Kherson that the Russians blew up when they were retreating last summer. And if you go upriver to the Upper East Side, there is a double bridge system, along with another dam, which creates another reservoir. And so we you should definitely expect the Russians to repeat the feat there with similar outcomes, although not as much. It’s not as big as the reservoir. And for similar reasons.
But it’s the fourth and biggest reason that I find most interesting isn’t the right word, but illuminating as to what Russian thinking is. The Kharkov reservoir raises the level of the river and allows for different canal system arms to be fed with irrigation water. And three of those systems are absolutely critical for growing crops in southern Ukraine and the Crimea. Now, I’ve always believed that the Ukrainians were going to disable their destroy one of those systems, the one that specifically serves Crimea, in order to force a siege on the peninsula. But with that reservoir now gone, none of these systems can access water. And you’re talking about territory that is responsible for growing about one quarter of Ukrainian crop. So in a stroke, the Russians have shown us two things. Number one, they really don’t plan on holding this territory in the near term. And so they’re going with an old strategy that’s kind of scorched earth, which is designed to make it as difficult as possible for anyone who takes the territory to hold it. Because we’re talking now about number two, a country that used to be one of the world’s major breadbasket is going to become a net food importer on the verge of at least a regional famine in the not too distant future. Or for those of you who are familiar with Russia’s history in Ukraine, triggering a regional famine. Again.
While in Helsinki, Secretary of State Blinken got some chuckles from the crowd (and me) when he said, “The Kremlin often claimed it had the second strongest military in the world, and many believed it. Today, many see Russia’s military as the second strongest in Ukraine.”
I’m all for some dark humor and ill-timed comedic relief (especially when it’s used to garner more aid and support for Ukraine), but I don’t want us to lose sight of who we’re talking about. A glance at the history books will show you a myriad of crushing defeats for the Russians, yet they persist.
Russia is both incredibly weak and resilient. While I’m confident that this is the beginning of the end of the Russian system, belittling them in this conflict isn’t going to speed up that process. On the other side of this war, we will be left with a resurgent Russia or a very bitter Russia (who happens to have 1,000+ nuclear warheads at their disposal).
Just a word of warning. You can still giggle at Russia’s incompetence or silly Putin memes, but don’t forget who we’re dealing with…
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Metawealth Professional Training has contracted with Zeihan on Geopolitics for some geopolitical and demographic work. They have chosen to share this piece of that work with all takers. So thanks much to the folks at Metawealth, and enjoy the listen while you sharpen those pitchforks!
It’s been a scary year. The Fed seems determined to crash the economy. The reality for some is going to be far worse than a “mere” four banks collapsing. Not only have four banks collapsed, another 185 banks are hanging on by a thin thread. Plus, the war in Russia and geopolitical tensions are escalating with no end in sight, and we’re starting to witness vast economic and political consequences.
If you’re like most people, you’re worried about what it all means… and unsure about what to do to best protect yourself from what’s unfolding.
That’s why I’ll be speaking on a special livestream, where I’ll share what my latest research unveils about the future and a startling new set of predictions…
Join me on Wednesday, June 7th at 8pm EST
I believe the era of prosperity we’ve enjoyed since World War II is ending and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has speeded up the process. The world is entering a new phase of “de-globalization.” The 2020s will see a collapse of consumption, production, investment, and trade…almost everywhere. Instead of a cheaper, better and faster world, it will be pricier, worse and slower.
There is a global disorder coming, in which countries will have to make their own goods, grow their own food, secure their own energy, and do it all with dwindling and aging populations.
In short, we will remember the last 75 years since the end of World War II as a golden age and no economic system can work in the future we’re about to face.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
What if I told you that Brazil’s new tropical strain of wheat could cause the most significant shift to the technological power balance the world has seen in the past five centuries? I know it’s hard to believe that wheat could have the same impact as industrialization, but hear me out.
Wheat has been the world’s go-to crop because it’s easy to grow and calorie-dense. Brazil is tropical, and much of the soil isn’t conducive to growing much of anything. Supporting a growing population becomes difficult without food security, which inhibits economic and technological growth.
Within the next few years, we will know if this new strain of wheat is successful. And if it is…food security will rise, populations will grow, and the core reason for the world’s regional power imbalances will begin to dissipate. This isn’t going to be a fast process, but a new strain of wheat might change the world.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
In mid-May, the US Trade Representative established a trade initiative with Taiwan. While this isn’t a full-blown trade deal, it represents the shift in US policy towards recognizing Taiwan as an independent country.
Taiwan is already an important trade partner for the US, so the economic rationale is there. You can also throw a check next to strategic reasoning, as keeping Taiwan out of Beijing’s grasp means access to critical military positioning for the US.
You can probably guess how the mainland feels about all this…but does that mean an invasion will happen? Unfortunately, I could see this going either way. It would be hard to imagine a world where Xi considers an attack a good idea, but who knows what will happen if everyone keeps drinking the CCP-Propaganda-Kool-Aid?
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
If I had a nickel for every time I’ve been asked for investment advice, I could probably retire. Since I’m not going to give out investment advice (or retire), I present the next best thing…a convo with Bill Mann from The Motley Fool.
In this interview, we discussed some guiding principles behind my investment thought process. Specifically, we looked at China’s issues, Apple, de-dollarization, and the demographic problem that the FED is keeping an eye on.
I encourage you to give the following video a listen…
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
There’s a canal that runs from Kherson to the Crimean Peninsula and serves as the area’s sole irrigation water source. And with how dry the region is, this canal is critical to the Crimean Peninsula.
While an assault on Nova Kakhovka might not be in the cards for the Ukrainians, targeting the sluice gate regulating the canal’s flow might still be their priority. That’s because there’s more than just food production on the line. The Zaporizhzia Nuclear Power Plant draws its coolant water from the Kakhova reservoir, and without that, some nuclear…issues could be on the agenda.
With the potential for a Zaporizhzia offensive, the strategic rationale behind targeting this canal is solid. Only time will tell if the Ukrainians capitalize on the opportunity to cut off the Russians and Crimea.
The above map shows the location of the sluice gate
The above map shows the location of the Zaporizhzia Nuclear Power Plant
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
There’s one massive hole we’ll need to fill if the green movement will ever work in the US…mineral resources. Thankfully we just struck a deal with our Aussie allies, who happen to have many of the key minerals and resources we need.
This deal will enable the Australians to contribute mineral resources to the American greentech industry in a way that will allow them to benefit from the incentives and subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
While Australia is a significant producer of many necessary Greentech resources, it’s not a one-stop shop for everything. They’re also great at producing the raw ore, but the value add component isn’t their thing. Thanks to subsidies from the IRA, there will be an opportunity to bring value-add capabilities to the Outback.
But what about all the other US allies? Will they be able to tap into this deal? We must remember that there is an inner circle and an outer circle of allies…for now, only the inner circle gets to play.
Prefer to read the transcript of the video?Click here
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
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Hey Peter Zeihan here coming to you from chilly Phoenix, where it’s a balmy 102 at ten in the morning. I don’t know how people do it. It’s only May. Anyway, back on May 20th or 21st, you’re gonna see this a few days later. The Americans strike a deal with the Australians that will allow the Australians to contribute their mineral resources to the American greentech industry in a way that they will benefit from the incentives and the subsidies that are part of the Inflation Reduction Act.
There’s a real hullabaloo of late about which countries can get access and which can’t, and Australia is a tight ally. It’s part of the inner circle and most importantly it has a preexisting free trade agreement with the United States. And so they are the source of roughly half of the world’s lithium. And they are a significant producer of rare earths and zinc and copper as well. So this definitely scratches a lot of it, just not all of them. They don’t do molybdenum, they don’t do silver or they don’t do a huge amount of bauxite, although they have some. No chromium. So, you know, it’s not like this is a one stop shop for everything The United States needs, but it’s a real big step in the right direction.
Kind of two follow on thoughts from here.Number one, while the Australians are great at producing the raw ore. They do very little value add themselves and one of the things that the IRA is attempting to do is to build up a parallel supply chain that’s independent from China for processing of these raw materials into metals and then on into intermediate products. Australia is a logical place for a lot of that. I mean, yes, Labor costs are high relative to other places in the world, but since the minerals are right there and the energy is cheap, especially if you want to do stuff with solar in the freaking outback, there’s a lot of upward potential. They just need the investment and a decision that they want to move up the value added chain and the IRA will probably help with that, now you’ll have some American Australian fusion projects that are located on both sides of the Pacific. The second thing are the countries that may be able to join the Australians in kind of this inner circle. The United States has a handful of free trade agreements. Obviously the most famous one is NAFTA, and obviously they already qualify for these incentives. But the U.S. also has trade deals with the Koreans and the Japanese and in the world to come. These are countries that are involved in manufacturing. They’re going to do one more and more processing in the value add for things like battery chassis themselves. And so it still needs to be negotiated, but it’s starting from a very strong position and we should expect those to join.
Who’s not going to join is the European Union. Getting a free trade deal with the European Union has always been something that on both sides of the Atlantic has been flirted with, but it’s never really gone anywhere. A lot of the European countries, most notably the French, are highly protectionist, and the idea of exposing themselves to the American market at all is just not something they are even willing to consider. But more importantly, Europe is in demographic collapse and they’ve simply run out of people who are under age 40, the folks who normally do the consumption. So the United States no longer has any sort of economic rationale for an economic partnership over the long term with Europe, because it would just mean that Europe would be product dumping on the Americans. Similar situation for Korea and Japan, but there’s a big strategic argument that these are allies that have to be kept close as part of maintaining a presence in the Asian theater. In the case of Europe, in many cases, it’s a little bit more of a problem than it’s worth. And while there are independent European powers like the Brits or maybe the Swedes or in the Poles, that may be worth it. If it’s all part of a network of the EU, then the cost is simply too high. So there’s definitely an inner circle and an outer circle among the allies. And when it comes to greentech, only the inner circle can play. Alright, that’s it. Everyone take care.
