Steel: Thinning Supply Lines

Steel. The backbone of…just about everything. The cars we drive. The buildings we work in. Where we store our food. You get the point. But what happens when access to the inputs necessary for steel production starts to disappear?

As we continue down the path of deglobalization, getting those inputs will become increasingly difficult. We are already seeing this playout as the Ukraine War has cut off supply from Russia and Ukraine. Leaving Brazil as the only major supplier of pig iron for the US.

Luckily, some locations will weather this storm better than others. Topping that list is The Hoosier State – Indiana.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

JDAMs: Ukrainian Bombs Get Smarter

If you’ve ever spent time in a pub throwing back (a few too many) pints, you’ve probably wandered over to the dart board. And hopefully you can at least hit the board, but beyond that…who knows where that dart is going. Take that analogy and apply it to Ukraine’s current arsenal of bombs.

The Ukrainians have struggled to hit a target with any degree of confidence until now. Introducing JDAMs (Joint Direct Attack Munitions). Relying on our analogy…JDAMs are like putting that same dart into the hands of a 65-year-old chap from the UK…and he doesn’t miss often.

This technology has the ability to change the tactical and strategic scope of this war. With Ukraine’s unrestricted airspace, they can now hit any location within range with pinpoint accuracy. More like J-DAMN…

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Ukraine: The Problems and Potential of Plopping for Patriots

At the onset of the Ukraine War, the Americans laid out 3 criteria for providing weapons to the Ukrainians: it must be a weapon system not critical to US defense operations, the technology must be outdated and it must be something that the Ukrainians can operate on their own. But things are changing…

In the West’s eyes, the Russians have escalated this war through their genocidal actions. Resulting in discussions over the use of the Patriot Missile Defense System. Now, this brings plenty of implications to the table.

Perhaps the most notable is that the Patriot Missile requires “advisors” to aid in its operation – meaning boots on the ground. Nothing is set in stone, but this could significantly impact the trajectory of the war.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

The Fusion Breakthrough: 70 years in the Making

FUSION. The clean energy of the future. No carbon footprint. Bottomless. Cheap. Sound too good to be true? Well, if it looks like a duck…

Before I express my concerns, I want to acknowledge how monumental this step is. It’s taken 70 years to achieve what has just been done, so slow clap for the team that got us here. However, don’t go buying those fusion lamps just yet.

We still need a few more “breakthroughs” before fusion becomes the energy of the present. Think scale, transmission, and materials. It took us a long time to get here, so what’s another half-century…right?

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

COVID: China’s Problem Child

A COVID situation is brewing in China and an outbreak of grand proportions is imminent. Unfortunately, the Chinese medical and political systems are wildly unprepared for what’s about to happen.

To give you some perspective, imagine 3 years of exposure condensed into 3 weeks, close to no natural immunity and vaccinations that aren’t worth diddly…it isn’t hard to picture how this will play out.

The impacts will spill out of China, but not in the form of Covid. Chinese manufacturing capabilities are already in the danger zone, and the fat lady won’t be singing anytime soon.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Japan’s New Toy: The Tomahawk Missile

Japan is no slouch when it comes to national defense, just look at their navy. However, their defensive capabilities just got some fancy new upgrades from their American counterparts – we’re talking Tomahawk Missiles baby.

Japan’s main concern is their islands’ proximity to China and a number of Chinese weapon systems, but these new gadgets will serve as a hefty deterrent.

As the US expands who they’ll sell their crème de la crème weapons to, China will have to face some new players who have the ability to threaten their economic links to the world.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Where in the World: Tenaya and Climate Change

Waking up to ash from the Red Fire scattered across my tent wasn’t exactly how I pictured my morning going, but it does bring to mind an interesting topic – Climate Change.

No one has a great idea of how climate change will actually play out, it’s more of a broad spectrum guess situation. Making meaningful policy and planning for the future a complex task to face. However, there are some tactical factors that decision makers should be looking at; these are sources of wind and stability of the climate zone.

Think back to Oregon’s record temps in the summer of ’21 or where most countries are sourcing their food from. Understanding these realities is the only way to create policy that will actually help mitigate the impact of climate change.

The scary reality is that just because we (I’m talking people in general) might not be feeling the impacts of climate change, the food we consume (likely) is.

NB: The following video is one I recorded while on my annual backpacking trip in August; please excuse any potential anachronisms.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Taiwan and China: War on the Horizon?

Disclaimer: this video was posted in May of 2022, but as discussions of Taiwan and China escalate it feels appropriate to re-share my thoughts.

Since the onset of the war in Ukraine, discussions of a pending Chinese invasion of Taiwan (yes, it’s been 70 years, but it’s pending nonetheless) have escalated.

However, within the first 3 months of fighting in Ukraine, almost every assumption that predicated the Chinese invasion of Taiwan…disappeared into a cloud of dust.

So, where does that leave China and Taiwan? The situation remains as it’s been for the better part of the last century – staring at each other across the Taiwan Strait. Although, the Taiwanese people have probably enjoyed their boba tea a little more these past few months.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Ukrainian Drone Strikes: Waging a New War

Western countries have gone out of their way NOT to provide the Ukrainians with weapon systems capable of striking Russia directly. So they are building their own.

This will not change the tides of war overnight, especially since Russia has never backed down from a fight without losing at least half a million men first. However, it does present an interesting opportunity for the Ukrainians.

By targeting Russia’s nexus points (i.e., oil refineries), the Ukrainians could eliminate Putin’s economic ability to sustain its military complex. Then we’ll have a much more interesting conversation to have.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Russian Oil Price Cap: Lasting Impacts

Unless you live under a rock, you’ve probably heard that Europe has placed a $60 price cap on Russian crude exports.

This is uncharted territory for EVERYONE, so I’m not here to predict how all this will play out. Instead, I want to lay out the matrix of factors that you should keep top of mind as this unfolds.

But the real fun is a “Red Pill” moment: The single global price for crude that we’ve all enjoyed for the last 85+ years…GONE. Meaning that global shipping becomes riskier and riskier by the day.

In terms of energy, we are well on our way to how things were in the 1930s. Exciting right?

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY