This is the first of the “Ask Peter” series, so I figured we’d kick it off with a two-parter. First, what’s the likelihood of Putin getting assassinated? Second, how is Russia’s demographic situation?
Answering the second question will help us understand the first question. Russia is in contention for the worst demographics in the world…Ukraine and China are up there too. One reason is the vast demographic gouges caused by past trauma, the big one being the collapse of the Soviet Union, which doubled the mortality rate and halved the birth rate. More recently, over a million people have fled Russia since the war started, many being young men avoiding the draft.
The collapsing government and nonexistent education system amplify this grim situation. With all these factors stacking up, Russia views its position as existential (because it is). The only path to survival is expanding and conquering the necessary geographical barriers.
This war has to end with one side being completely defeated. Even if the Ukrainians can humiliate Putin to the point that revolutions break out in Moscow and they put a democratic government in power, the Russians wouldn’t be able to climb out of the hole they’ve dug. The Russians are in this thing until the end. And their demise is coming this century. The only question is will it be in a few years or decades?
As for Putin, it doesn’t really matter if he goes bye-bye. There are scores within Russia’s top rungs ready to see this to the end. Remember: this war isn’t about one man’s ego, but rather Russia’s survival strategy.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
