A WTF Moment in the Middle East

In President Biden’s State of the Union address a few days ago, he announced plans to build a floating dock to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza. This dock would help provide significant food supplies to this area, but at what cost?

You can probably imagine how the Israelis feel about this floating dock, but is that really the worst thing? This move by the US will carry significant diplomatic and strategic repercussions, but a shift away from Israel and some other Middle Eastern powers might be exactly what President Biden is going for.

With the potential for a reshuffling of Middle Eastern alliances and relationships, the opportunity to buddy up with a much more powerful country – like ahem, Turkey – is on the table. There’s no telling how all of this will shake out, but its likely that US policy in the Middle East is shifting.

Prefer to read the transcript? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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TranscripT

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Colorado. Have kind of a weird one for you today because I’m not sure if I’m really no idea where it’s going, but this event has the potential for remaking a lot of things with U.S. policy in the Middle East in general. If you guys watched the State of the Union address a couple of days ago, almost a throwaway line that people like blurbed about for 5 minutes and then immediately forgot.

Was the Biden administration is committed publicly to building a floating dock that services the Gaza territory in order to get humanitarian aid in. The idea is that the throughput will be enough for at least 2 million meals a day, which would be roughly one third of the food demands for the territory. Now, remember, Gaza is basically a walled, open air prison camp, and so they grow no food themselves.

They’re completely dependent upon aid. And in the aftermath of the October Hamas attacks on Israel that killed some 1600 people, just horrific attack. The Israeli counter effort to try to root out Hamas has destroyed probably two thirds of the housing stock within Gaza. Probably more than that of their infrastructure. And they’re gearing up for another assault in the southern part of the strip to go after what they think are the remnants of Hamas, which is where now most of the population has been huddled because the rest of the strip has been destroyed.

Already, we’ve seen about 35,000 deaths among the Gaza population, which is over 1% of the pre-war civilian population. And if the Rafah attack happens over at least half of that number of casualties again. So this has already become the single most high casualty conflict in recent years that is not in sub-Saharan Africa. And it’s only going to get worse before it gets better.

And there is no version of a future where Gaza is self-sustaining. They don’t generate their own energy. They can’t grow their own food. Everything comes in from aid from somewhere else. And because of the war, the Israelis have basically blockaded the entrances, except for some very, very specific circumstances. Anyway. The Biden administration let me rephrase that. Biden personally, when he was vice president, if you remember, Obama hated everybody, didn’t want to have conversations with anyone.

And so he basically sent Biden to do all the talking, especially in the Middle East, because there was a region. Obama wasn’t interested in anything, but he was really not interested in the Middle East. So Biden has a first name, a relationship with most of the leaders across the region, and he and the Israelis did not get along at all, especially Netanyahu.

And I mean, let’s be perfectly blunt here in Kenya, who is an asshole and no one likes him, but he’s an effective political leader when it comes to managing a coalition. And his attitude hasn’t changed at all during the conflict. If anything, it’s hardened. And so he’s basically ignored what everyone has said about the conflict pursuing Israeli national interests.

I don’t mean that in a bad way. There is no way that Israel will be secure so long as Hamas exists. And I don’t see a way to destroy Hamas without destroying Gaza. But between that immovable rock and that irresistible force, the United States is attempting to find a third way. It won’t work, but it’s attempting to find a way to allow the Palestinians to at least live from.

So you have to have a degree of respect for at least that. Here’s the thing. There is no version of what the Biden administration has now pledged itself to do that meshes with any version of Israeli national security, regardless of who is in charge in Jerusalem. Even if the left wing peaceniks took over in Israel, tomorrow, they would still be opposed to this.

This this cuts to the core of Israeli survivability. And there is broad support for the military operation in Gaza across the political spectrum despite the civilian casualties. So there is no way there’s no way that the Biden administration is unaware of this and there is no way that the Joint Chiefs didn’t explain to the cabinet of the Biden administration that if we do this, we then also have to bring in a logistics team in order to deliver aid by small boat to this dock.

And then we have to put boots on the ground in Gaza to set up a truck distribution system to get the aid to the people. Remember, 2 million meals a day. This is on a much larger scale than what went down with the Berlin airlift. And with the Berlin airlift. You could just drop it and fly away. Here you’re talking about having to deliver it.

The U.N. can’t operate in Gaza in war. Only the U.S. military could. So we’re now talking about having a larger U.S. military presence in and around Gaza than it has in the rest of the Middle East put together. There is no version of that that the Israelis are okay with. And it begs the question, what happens the next day?

So let me give you the caveat first. It’s a floating dock. The military could just leave. This isn’t like the Afghan evacuation in Afghanistan. The Kabul airport was an air bridge. Moving things by air is incredibly expensive and is a hell of a bottleneck. And you can only fit a few hundred people on each individual craft when you’re dealing with a naval operation.

This is the sort of thing the U.S. excels at. And if the decision was made to pull the plug, every U.S. military personnel could be out of there in a few hours. So we’re not setting up for a repeat of that. But we are setting up for a military footprint that is significant in a place that has absolutely no strategic value to the United States.

Also, Hamas is still very active in this region. Israel’s not done. So there will be attacks on U.S. forces. Biden knows this. Biden knows all of this. And so what happens the next day? It feels like the United States is preparing to breach the Israeli relationship. And if you do that, there are a number of secondary decisions that have to be made in a very short period of time.

Now, remember, the Biden administration is the administration that ended the American involvement in Afghanistan and has slimmed down our involvement everywhere else in the region to very, very thin bones. Going from here to a full pullout through the entire region. That is very possible. But think of the alliances that are forming up within this region right now. The Israelis have succeeded in building up diplomatic relationships, not just with Jordan and Egypt, but with Morocco and with Tunisia and with the UAE.

And they’re inches away from having a normalized relationship with Saudi Arabia. If the United States decides to cut and run from Israel, that means all of these countries are on their own. Now, there’s any number of ways that the U.S. can disengage. One of them is to induce other powers like the Arabs and the Israelis, to work together out of a sense of desperation.

This could do that. But that would also mean that the United States is preparing to cut its connection with the slave states of the Persian Gulf. That would be gutter the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, three countries that important vast quantities of labor abuse them horribly and then send them home when they’re no longer useful to them.

This would mean an end to that, too. Now, if if, if if this is the Biden administration’s plan and if if if the Biden administration wants to have influence in the region after this, it would have to make a partnership with another player. The only option is Turkey. And we have seen renewed diplomatic connections between the Biden administration and the other white administration of Turkey over the course of the last couple of months.

Now, the Turks in the current government don’t like the Israelis very much at all, but they by far the Turks have the most powerful military in the region, arguably more powerful than everyone else has put together. If there is to be a post Israel post Saudi American position in the region, it has to be with Turkey. And so there’s already been multiple meetings at the assistant defense secretary level to figure out how we can get along again, because those relations have been poor ever since the Iraq war started back in 2003.

So this has the potential to be game changing for the region. And as for someone who has kind of been sick of dealing with this region for the last 20 years, I got to admit it’s a kind of an attractive approach. The Israelis are carrying out a military operation that is making everybody squeamish, even countries that don’t much care for the Palestinians, and using this as a way to not just reduce relations with the Israelis who are apoplectic about this dog, but the Saudis and the Emiratis as well.

And to get along with a country that is much more democratic, which is much more strategically viable, that is much more capable. That’s a good trade. But there’s a lot of water that has to flow under this bridge as it’s being built before we get there. And we’re not going to have a good idea of just how committed the Biden administration is to whatever plan until such time as the stock is operational and or we see a significant shift in American relations with the Turks.

But we should get some good data points on all of that in the next two or three months.

Russian Bombs Get an Upgrade

We’ve seen both sides of the conflict in Ukraine adopting and adapting new ways of fighting. While Ukraine has innovated with drones and satellite tech, Russia has modified its large FAB-1500 dumb bombs into glide bombs.

Russia has always fought (and won) wars through sheer numbers and volume, but the introduction of precision-guided systems is a new blend of innovative tech and the traditional Russian numbers strategy. Since Russia has so many FAB-1500 dumb bombs that can be upgraded, they’ll have a multi-decade supply of glide bombs.

This shift in Russian strategy should be setting off alarms for the rest of the world. With such a substantial transformation in Russian military power, global military strategies will need to be reevaluated and revised.

Prefer to read the transcript? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
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TranscripT

Hey Everyone. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Colorado, where we are having a 55 degree day in between snowstorms. We’re going to talk about some of the technological evolutions we’re seeing in the Ukraine war, specifically on the Russian side. I mean, the Ukrainians have got a lot of street cred that they have earned for new and innovative tactics and applying new technologies like drones and civilian satellite information to the targeting systems.

But the Russians haven’t been just sitting there taking it. They’ve been innovating and applying it across their entire post-Soviet arsenal. Or maybe more, I should say, Soviet arsenal and the weapons system in play is something called the Fab 1500, which is a 1500 kilo dead drop bomb that they’re now putting flight kits on that allow it to become a glide bomb.

Think of it as a very low tech missile that if you drop it from a sufficient height, can glide up to something like 50 kilometers or more. Based on circumstances in the battle that DEFCON that resolved back in February, the Russians used over 100 of these a day at some point, and the payloads end up making a bomb crater that in many cases is more than 50 feet across.

So just a huge amount of explosive developed with relative precision. The Russians are saying they have an accuracy rate of five meters. Let’s take them at their word or if you want to say they’re off by an order of magnitude 50 meters. Still, the concussive explosion of that kind of bomb is just devastating to any sort of emplacement, defensive installation.

And certainly troops. And we’re applying this now to the Soviet arsenal. One of the things to keep in mind. Well, actually, let me go back. So if this sounds familiar, putting like a glide kit on a dumb bomb, that’s because we’ve seen this before. Now, for those of you who are under age 45, think back to Desert Storm, where the United States was at war in Iraq the first time.

And we had something called the JDAM, the Joint Direct Attack Munition, where we took our Cold War arsenal of dumb bombs and put flight kits like these on them that allowed for accurate attacks very, very cheap, measured in the single or double digits of thousands per bomb for the adjustment, as opposed to, say, millions per missile. And it converted something that we had just an extreme inventory that allowed us to basically coast on that technology for the next 20, 25 years, a very significant development that transformed American air power.

The Russians are now on the early stages of doing that themselves and being Russian Soviet. They have a lot more of these in inventory than we ever did. And while their dud rate might be a lot higher than ours, you’re still talking about tens of thousands of bombs that they can apply this to. And they’re only in the very early days of it.

So if all they do is upgrade their dumb bombs, they have probably at current burn rates, 20 to 25 years of supplies of these sorts of things. And none of the countries that border Russia have anything like this. They may have had a few supplementary weapons that were left over from the Soviet period, but almost the entirety of the Air Force was concentrated into Russia proper.

And that’s where the industrial plant is to do the modifications. So there have been any number of reasons to think that it’s the Russians who at the end of the day will rely on numbers and sheer weight to win this war and prosecute the next one and the transformation of what has been to this point, a relatively useless weapon, which is just a dumb drop bomb with not a lot of accuracy.

And there’s something that’s more akin to what the United States developed back in the late 1980s. Now, that’s a very, very, very significant development. And the only way that the Ukrainians can really counter this is by getting a functional air force that can strike across the border and hit Russian aircraft before they can drop the weapons in the first place.

And even in the most aggressive estimates that I’ve seen for the transfer of things like F-16s to Ukraine, there just aren’t enough of them in order to make that sort of impact on a broad scale. So this is something that is going to reshape the battle space signature effectively until and unless the Ukrainians can disrupt the ground logistical systems that are supporting the Russian forces.

And even if the Kerch Bridge Group coach go down in Crimea goes from a springboard for Russian power to a massive sandbag that doesn’t affect the eastern front. So we’re looking at here at probably the most significant transformation in Russian military power in the last 30 years. And it’s now being applied to a hot war zone. This is far more significant than what the Russians have been doing with artillery strikes in urban centers or the Shaheed drones from Iran, which are basically war crimes of choice.

Was this something that has a very real, very deep, very lasting military implication that will affect the entire front line, especially in the east? And there is no good, clean, simple counter? one quick addendum in order to put this into a deeper context. The Soviets slash Russians have never, ever won a war based on technology. It’s always been sheer weight of numbers, and this conflict is no different from the ones that came before in that regard.

The reason why the United States fights the way it does is we’ve always been on the wrong continent for most of our wars. And so no matter where we go, we’re always going be outnumbered. So it’s all about precision bringing force in volume, but applying it precisely. So that’s why we’re in precision guided munitions and mid and long range missiles, air power guided artillery, all that good stuff.

We’re never going to be able to fight on the numbers, so we have to have a multiplier. It’s two very different design philosophies and two very different military strategies that are defined by the cultures in question and where they tend to fight. We tend to fight at a considerable remove. The Russians have always fought very close to where they actually live.

What is in play here with this new weapon system or the modified 1500, is applying a little bit of the American approach to precision, to the Russian approach for mass. So, for example, the the JDAMs, for the most part, the United States applies those to our old stock of £500 bombs, very effective the Soviets, because it was always about mass, don’t use £500 bombs.

It was 500 kilo bombs or in the case of the 1500, 1500 kilo bombs, very different scale. And if you can take a little bit of the American precision, even if it’s circa 1987 and apply it to the scale that the Russians can produce, then you have a very different war fighting capability, not just in Ukraine, but wherever the Russians go from now on.

And that makes for a very different regional and even global rival that will force the U.S. military into a ground up reassessment of everything that it does.

A Faint Glimmer of Hope in the House of Representatives

The House of Representatives is looking like dysfunctional family as of late, and of course, the weird uncle stirring up the pot is the Greenpeace faction. Opposing nearly every bill that dares to exist, they’ve essentially halted all legislative proceedings.

Despite the need for aid to Ukraine, bulwark assistance for Israel and Taiwan, defense reform, entitlement reform and more, all were hearing from the House are a series of steady shrieks. However, we might be seeing some action very soon thanks to discharge petitions. A discharge petition, requiring 218 signatures, forces debates on critical issues and gives bills a fighting chance at being passed. Even if – especially if – the Speaker would rather the bill not see the light of day.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
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Things I (Don’t) Worry About: Collapse of the Semiconductor Industry

One of the most asked questions I receive is “what keeps you up at night?” So, I figured I would turn that question into a series called “Things I (Don’t) Worry About” where I’ll discuss all the things that have me tossing and turning and what helps me sleep like a rock. First on the docket is the semiconductor industry.

I’ve done a number of videos on semiconductors in recent times, so my concerns shouldn’t come as too big of a surprise…but let’s dive right in.

The production of semiconductors can be equated to the personification of globalization. These dinky little chips have one of the most complex supply chains in the world; think dozens of highly specialized companies helping chips move along the value add chain until they are finally ready to be jammed into your smartphone.

With that in mind, you can start to picture how little it would take to disrupt the entire semiconductor industry. This makes the competition between industry leaders Intel and TSMC that much more important, as it will help to expand operational capabilities and increase resiliency in the supply chain.

The bottom line is that even if China does not decide to invade Taiwan, we are already looking at a scary future for all that tech we know and love.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
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Quantum Computing and the Future of Technology

We’ve all been hearing sci-fi tales of quantum computing for decades now, but what will its impact actually look like and how soon can we expect it?

When we think of traditional semiconductor tech, there are physical size constraints which will eventually cause a plateau in processing capacity. Quantum computing operates at the atomic level and a single qubit can *theoretically hold more data than the largest supercomputer.

“Theoretically” is the key word in that sentence. While there are advanced quantum computers, practical applications are still limited by our understanding and command of quantum mechanics, intricate assembly, and the hefty maintenance required.

Scaling up quantum computing will take time, but the impact of this technology could revolutionize data processing and materials science.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

Question Time with Peter Zeihan: Episode 3

This is the third episode of our new series ‘Question Time with Peter Zeihan!’ Every week or so I’ll be sitting down with one of the team members from Zeihan on Geopolitics and have them dish out some rapid-fire questions from the ‘Ask Peter’ forum. Kyle, our Social Media Manager, will be joining me for episode three today.

In this episode, we’ll be discussing the complex relationship between China and Taiwan, China’s struggle with youth unemployment, and a look back at some of my predictions from 2023.

If you’d like to submit a question for a future installment, click the link below.

Ask Peter Zeihan

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

Recession for (Almost) Everyone!

Photo of the word recession with storm clouds overhead

I was scanning the financial news this morning and realized Germany was in recession. In my morning brief I was informed Japan was in recession as well. On a call with a client someone brought up that the United Kingdom had joined the downers club. A quick convo with the staff revealed the same was true for Hungary and Ireland. And Greece and Lithuania and Estonia and Finland. Israel probably as well, while Australia, New Zealand, France, Spain and Italy are only a rounding error away. China’s data, such that it is, suggests that the Middle Kingdom is by most definitions at best recession-adjacent.

We’ve known for awhile that between China’s stumbles and global demographic aging that consumption-led growth on a global scale has become nearly impossible. The problem is we have lacked the data to confirm what theory dictates. GDP growth data always comes out with a lag of months. Often multiple quarters for many places. And COVID (~&@#^*-ing COVID) scrambled everyone’s data for nearly three years. Well, we’re starting to get a good deep look at reality again, and it appears we may already be past the point where the sort of economic activity we’ve all thought of as “normal” for so long is simply…over.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

Europe’s Latest S*** Show: Farmers On Strike

If you’ve seen the videos of tractors driving through city centers and spraying manure on government buildings, then you’re well aware of the farmer protests happening throughout Europe…but why are they protesting?

The protests, which started in France, are in response to regulatory changes and reduced funding for agriculture in the EU. The Common Agricultural Program has seen drastic cuts to funding and increased restrictions facing farmers.

Despite Europe being a very strong agricultural zone, countries like the US and Brazil stack on the pressure for these European farmers with their higher yields and lower price points. We’ll continue to monitor and release updates as this situation unfolds.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

Israel and Russia Fall Out + Kindle Deal of the Day

Photo of Iron Dome missile defense system firing

KINDLE DEAL OF THE DAY

On March 10, you can get The Accidental Superpower: Ten Years On eBook for only $3.99!

Get your ebook here

If you haven’t purchased the The Accidental Superpower: Ten Years On yet, March 10 is the time to buy! Kindle has selected the eBook version as the Deal of the Day for March 10! We’ll be sending out another email as we get closer to the date.

Back to Israel and Russia Falling Out…

In a marked shift away from the historical relationship between Israel and Moscow, Israel plans to send early warning radar to Ukraine. The details of this plan are still unconfirmed, but let’s break it down.

Israel has developed some of the most advanced missile and drone detection and defense systems, known as the Iron Dome System. What’s being sent to Ukraine will likely be a much more basic version; regardless, it will be an invaluable piece of tech for the Ukrainian’s defense capabilities.

This move by Israel could also signify the beginning of increased cooperation with Western allies – most notably the US. Once the flood gates open, intelligence sharing, some Western funding, and enhancements to military capabilities shouldn’t be too far behind.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

Talking Iran and China on Danger Close with Jack Carr

If you’ve followed me for a while, you’ll probably recognize Jack Carr and his show Danger Close. Last week, he released our latest episode together and if you haven’t seen it yet, I encourage you to tune in.

This episode is about an hour long and we discuss a number of heavy hitting topics. We explore Iran’s historical and geographical influences on culture, along with the greater Iranian threat via proxy groups including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis. We also discuss China’s birth rate crisis and the potential motives for a Taiwan invasion, portraying a bleak vision of the future as a desperate attempt to save a dying empire.

You can see more of Jack Carr’s content and watch the interview at the link below…

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts