Peter Zeihan, Author at Zeihan on Geopolitics

Warfare Innovations: Russia’s Turtle Tanks

The Webinar – The State of Global Energy – is only 1 week away!

Peter will deliver his analysis and forecasts for regional energy production and his assessment of geopolitical risk—everything from war, to instability and regulatory risk—with an eye on challenges and opportunities facing global production and supply.

Please join us on Friday, May 10th at 12:00 PM EST.

The Russians are playing dress up with their tanks and it might reveal where the future of military conflict is heading. Okay, “dress up” might not be the right term, but just google a picture of the Russian turtle tanks to get an idea of what I’m talking about.

These tanks are being equipped with heavy armor to defend against the drone attacks that have become popular in the Ukraine War. This innovation reflects a larger shift in warfare strategies, as countries like Ukraine have had to come up with new (and cheaper) ways of striking targets.

Innovations like the turtle tanks are a great example of the adaptations in modern warfare. However, as aid and support hit Ukraine, we’ll likely see a new round of innovations emerge onto the scene.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from snowy Colorado. Today we’re going to talk about a military, innovation on the Russian side of the Ukraine war. You guys may have seen some of the videos and the photos, but they have something that’s now called a turtle tank, where they take a tank and they put it in this turtle like shell of armor that covers the entire thing.

to the point that the turret can’t even rotate. the idea is to make it relatively drone proof. it looks silly. And obviously some of the earlier iterations were destroyed quickly. but the Russians have continued to innovate it because they need it. It’s serving a very real battlefield purpose. So perhaps because of what happened with the U.S. Congress, it’s been months since the Ukrainians have gotten meaningful military assistance from the United States.

And in that sort of environment, they’ve been forced to go kind of a do it yourself program. and so instead of relying on more traditional things like tanks and missiles, long range drones and artillery, they basically can cranking out thousands, tens of thousands of anti-personnel drones that only weigh a couple pounds, every month. And while one of those is probably not going to take out a tank, you know, a couple that get to the right spot can maybe damage or tread and immobilize a vehicle and then allow other methods to go in and take it out.

Well, in that same sort of environment, if they don’t have a lot of artillery, then the Russians can mass forces and make big pushes into Ukrainian positions. The turtle tank is a way for the Russians of dealing with both of those issues. So if there isn’t a lot of artillery, then the tanks can be in clusters with infantry and get a lot closer to the Ukrainian positions more or less safely.

and then by putting all this shell of armor on it, the anti-personnel mines can’t damage the treads. No matter how many you throw at it, you’re still might be some gaps in the armor because, you know, you have to be able to see. But, it’s a much different situation where the Ukrainians would have to throw two or 3 or 400 things at one tank in order to stop it, as opposed to just a half a dozen before.

In addition, the Russians are putting protection on the bottom of the tank so they can serve as kind of slapdash, mind clearing devices as well. So the idea is you take a couple these turtle tanks and push directly into Ukrainian positions, going right through the mines that the Ukrainians have dropped, basically ignoring the anti-personnel drones that’s getting thrown at them.

And then behind those tanks, you have vehicles that are carrying infantry. So it’s designed to basically provide direct access to the Ukrainian positions. And all the while, the Russians are hitting these Ukrainian positions with artillery and glide bombs. So it’s not a stupid strategy at all. the question is whether it is sustainable, whether it’s going to be necessary in the future.

A couple things to keep in mind here. We are kind of in a position like we were in the U.S Civil War with a whole new raft of military technology is becoming available, and we’re seeing how they do and do not mesh with the technologies. Oh, we already had. So regardless of what you think of either side of the Ukraine war, studying how both sides are adapting to this new reality is something that is going to educate us all on the nature of military conflict moving forward.

So this is a big deal. And what the Russians are doing is they’re basically inventing a new style of warfare, whether or not this specific type of weapon system is going to last. probably not. The only reason that the turtle tank is viable is because Ukrainians don’t have artillery. And now that the US Congress has finally acted and weapons systems are being flown in at most, most, first and foremost, including a lot of artillery shells.

You should expect things like this to just be lit up as targets, very soon. So this specific weapon system might not be the harbinger of things to come, but it’s certainly representative of a whole class of weapons systems that are going to be invented from scratch or during the remainder of this war.

The TikTok Ban Is (Almost) Here…One Year Later

Please join us on Friday, May 10th at 12:00 PM EST for the Webinar – The State of Global Energy

A little over a year ago, we discussed a potential ban on TikTok in the US. Well, President Biden finally signed the “Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act”, which would ban TikTok or force its parent company, ByteDance, to sell it.

You can bet that TikTok won’t go down without a fight, so we’ll probably still be talking about this a year from now…but the video below is a little reminder about why I’m not torn about this ban.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Power Outages in Texas and Growing Energy Demands

The Webinar – The State of Global Energy – is only 10 days away!

Peter will deliver his analysis and forecasts for regional energy production and his assessment of geopolitical risk—everything from war, to instability and regulatory risk—with an eye on challenges and opportunities facing global production and supply.

Please join us on Friday, May 10th at 12:00 PM EST.

Over the weekend, some Texans had a not-so-friendly reminder that their power grid doesn’t work well under stress. This is just one of many outages and electricity challenges that Texas will face in the coming years.

There’s 3 main things contributing to the state’s energy grid issues: climate change, population growth, and industrial regeneration. Some of these are bit easier to track than others, but Texas must carefully navigate each of them to keep up with demand.

As energy demands grow, the Texas grid will have to expand significantly to keep up. That means we can expect plenty of regulatory and infrastructure changes coming down the pipe.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here, coming to you from Colorado. we’re going to talk today about Texas because back on the 28th, on Sunday, the, electricity regulator of Texas called Ercot warned that there could be rolling brown and blackouts on the 29th of April. their concern was that temperatures were already expected to nudge up above 90 degrees in some parts of central and southern Texas.

Now, at the end of the day, it wasn’t too bad. We just had a few sparks and brownouts here and there. The issue here is twofold. First, the one I can’t do anything about, and that’s climate change as Texas is getting warmer, as the population is expanding and people are moving into warmer and warmer areas. you’re seeing more pressure on the system writ large.

electricity systems can transmit as much power when it’s hot. In addition, things like water cooling systems for, say, nuclear power plants don’t work as efficiently. So hot actually doesn’t just mean demand goes up. It means sometimes supply can go down. The other problem is more industrial, and it’s going to become a bigger and bigger and bigger problem moving forward at a much faster rate than anything the climate change does.

as the Chinese and the European systems crack. the United States is going to have to enter in a period of extreme industrial regeneration. Now, we’ve already started that. We’ve seen industrial construction spending in the United States expand by a factor of ten in just the last five years, and Texas has been an outsized beneficiary of that.

But the bottom line is this if you’re going to add a lot of industry and manufacturing, you’re going to be moving metal and forging materials and doing a lot of stamping. And all of those are really electricity intensive. It’s not that we don’t use more electricity as we get into things like server farms, but it’s nothing compared. What happens when you forge and move stuff.

So I estimate that the United States needs to roughly double the size of its industrial plant. And just from that, we need 50% more electricity. Well, in the case of Texas, you got a triple bind here. You’ve got the energy transition, which is more electricity dependent. You’ve got a population explosion as people move to Texas because it’s a cheaper place to live.

There’s no taxes. Land is cheap. food is cheap. Electricity until recently was cheap. And so you’ve got just a broad spectrum demand build and then the manufacturing renaissance on top of that. So I would estimate that the Texans need to actually double the size of their grid, preferably within the next 10 to 15 years, that we have never had that kind of build out before.

Now, there is a problem here in addition to just the sheer numbers involved, and that is the regulatory structure of Texas. It is separated from the rest of the national grid. It regulates itself, and connections between Texas and the rest of the country are very slim. So when Texas enters into a period of abject shortage, the only solution for it is to overhaul its regulatory structure, to bring in new power systems, or to link up to the rest of the grid, which means some federal regulation will come into play.

The Texans really don’t want to do option B. The problem with option A is if the Texans are have to change their ideology of power management. Right now, the way Ercot regulates the space is you can only charge the rate payers money four times when a power plant is actually operational. Well, that sounds kind of obvious. The problem here is when you deal with situations like, say, peak demand in the evening, you have to bring in a lot of peaker plants.

When you’re looking at solar systems. if you’re going to bring them on line, they only generate during the day. So what Texas has done partially for ideological reasons, is to penalize, companies that build systems that are not used all the time. Thing is, when you get into surge demand situations, that just means the grid goes down and that is an entire model that they are going to have to reimagine.

Now, people will, of course, point to California as a counterpoint, and I’m not saying that Californians have figured it out either. California’s decided to go whole hog into the green transition and pull out all the coal out of their system, and now as much natural gas as they possibly can. And they’re starting to make some crazy claims about having a largely carbon free grid.

And it is a lie. The Californians are really bad at math. basically every time the sun goes down, you know, every day they turn on this 11 gigawatt capacity cluster of lines that connects Los Angeles to, the Arizona border. And every a bed of electrons that are coming in from Arizona is fossil fuel driven, primarily natural gas and coal.

overall, California imports over one third of its electricity. They just don’t include that data in the math. So it’s not that California has really gotten green. It’s a California has simply outsourced its carbon emissions. Both California and Texas, I would argue, are now operating on a model that is failing, and both of them need to get overhauled.

Texas, however, is the one where this is going to be a desperate issue because no one is really thinking, oh, I’m going to build a manufacturing plant just outside San Jose. No no no no no no no. All that sort of stuff happens in Texas. So the demand to build is going to be explosive. And it’s going to force the Texans to make some uncomfortable decisions and some very large investments very soon.

WEBINAR – The State of Global Energy – May 10

A land war in Europe. The specter of spill-over conflict in the Middle East. Sluggish Chinese demand. Historic challenges to maritime security.

The global economy is five years on from the “normal” of 2019, but geopolitical risk abounds. What does that mean for global oil?

Peter will deliver his analysis and forecasts for regional energy production and his assessment of geopolitical risk—everything from war, to instability and regulatory risk—with an eye on challenges and opportunities facing global production and supply.

Peter’s presentation will be followed by a live Q&A session for all attendees. All registrants will receive access to the recorded webinar as well as a copy of presentation materials.

Please note: registration confirmation and access codes will be emailed to registrants by Zoom. Please make sure to check your spam folders, and that the email you used to register is correct.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Japan’s Navy Gets Teeth

The Japanese Navy is getting a face lift with the conversion of the Izumo-class destroyers into small supercarriers capable of holding F-35s (compliments of the US).

This marks Japan’s return to full-scale naval aviation and is a reflection of the overall strategic shift in Japan’s military posture. With regional affairs growing more dicey by the day (ahem, China), Japan is straightening out its military posture and looking to play a more assertive role.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Florida. The news today, we’re in the second week of April, is that the Japanese have released from initial refit a beard, what they call a heavy destroyer. The cargo. It’s part of the Izumi class. this was designed to be a helicopter carrier, right? It’s really a small supercarrier, if you will.

And they’ve now completed the refit so it can take American F-35, of which the Japanese are purchasing about 150, at least a third of which are supposed to be the carrier versions. and there’s definitely going to be more coming. this gives the Japanese full scale naval aviation for the first time since 1945. Keep in mind that the world’s first super carriers or carriers of any type actually are Japanese.

And so this is a skill set that they’re in the process of rebuilding. they’re also doing so hand in glove with the naval superpower, which is the United States. And obviously they’re going to be using a lot of American hardware and training to make this up to speed. So basically this takes Japan and transforms its already blue water navy into a blue water strike, maybe with significant over-the-horizon capabilities.

the Japanese who were doing this happened to over the Americas from a strategic point of view. And the vessels were already sailing together with the American fleets. the cargo will be going for sea trials now for probably about a year, maybe a year and a half before beginning full deployment. And while that is happening, the other of the two sumo class carriers, Mizuho, will now be going for its refit.

critics would say, and I would agree with them, that this was always the plan for the Izumo class. They were only called helicopter destroyers, for purposes of dealing with a population and a region that wasn’t quite comfortable with Japan taking a direct military role in affairs, but that has now turned, the Koreans have gotten quiet.

Everyone else in Asia realizes the Japanese being more fourth, which is actually a good thing. But most importantly, the Japanese population has moved beyond its general feeling to pacifism and the post-World War Two era, realizing that as the Chinese become more uppity that a firmer military position is needed and that requires hardware to accentuate the policy, it.

Will RFK Jr. Shake Up the 2024 Presidential Election?

Most of you have seen my previous video outlining how I see the 2024 US presidential election playing out…click here if you need a refresher or if you haven’t seen that yet.

RFK II has a presidential name, but I don’t think he’ll be finding himself in that position this go around. However, he does have the opportunity to cause some problems for Trump in the process.

Donald Trump has created enough challenges for himself by dividing the Republican party and alienating independents, but RFK Jr. might be able to add one more challenge to Trump’s campaign. We all know the conspiracy theorist wackadoos love Trump, but RFK Jr. is catching the eyes of some of the crazies.

While this group isn’t going to win either of these candidates a seat in the oval office, there’s potential for some of Trump’s strongholds to be split with RFK Jr. The impact to President Biden will be fairly limited, as the remainder of those bearing the Kennedy name support the current President.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Colorado. Today we are going to take another entry from the Ask Peter Forum. this specifically regards the election, specifically about Robert Kennedy Jr and whether his entrance into the race is going to cost Biden a potential victory. let’s start by giving you the quick and dirty of where I see this election going.

number one, Donald Trump has broke the unity of the Republican Party. There are fewer Republicans and Democrats at any given time. And so if the Republicans don’t have unity, it’s almost impossible for them to win the general election. And so if you have a situation where maybe upwards of a third of registered Republicans are just like, not interested in this guy, it’s almost impossible to envision a scenario where Trump can walk away with a victory.

The second problem was with the independents, and I’m talking about the real independents. So in the American legal system, about 25 to 30% ish of the population are hardcore Democrats or hardcore Republicans. And then another 15 to 20% on each side say that they’re independent. But they really vote either Republican or Democrat over 90% of the time. So they’re really not independent.

That just leaves the 10% in the middle. And one of the reasons, one of the many reasons why no American political pool poll ever taken before the political conventions has ever been right is because when you call a real independent before the conventions, they just hang up on you. so ignore all the polls that are out there right now.

Anyway, in the midterm elections, which everyone seems to have forgotten two years ago. Trump backed candidates were gutted by real independents, and very few of them won at all. Donald Trump has basically told the independents that the only vote that matters is the primaries, not the general. And since the general is the only place where the independents have a voice, they broadly turned against Trump, or at least they had as of two years ago.

We’ll see what happens this time around. Well, here’s the problem. There are fewer Republicans and Democrats. So not only would Trump have to carry the Republicans challenge, he also has to carry the independents, who he’s deeply offended in many levels. so unless something changes significantly, there isn’t a road to victory here for Trump. The question, of course, is whether or not RFK will shake that up a little bit.

And I think it will, but probably not in the way that people are thinking. first of all, people like the idea of the name Kennedy. If you’re on the left, if you’re a Democrat because of, you know, John Kennedy and all that good stuff. the problem here is his own failed his disowned him on this topic.

It was, just in early April that a dozen prominent Kennedy members, including former legislators, including half dozen of RFK Jr’s own siblings, showed up to campaign for Biden and campaign against their own family member. he’s definitely the black sheep of the family. He is. How do they put it? Loved but not liked. and so it’s really hard for me to see any classical Democrat, going with him just because the name, especially when the name is campaigning against him.

the second issue, of course, comes back to independents because they are where a lot of this electoral cycle will be decided. And if you are a true independent, one of those 10%, somebody like me and you are looking at who is on the ballot, Trump and Biden again, you’re like, oh, somebody give me another choice. And I can see that argument for twisting a few things in places where the margin is small.

the problem is, is that this guy’s not much better. people like to say that, you know, we’ve got 280 year olds running, and whoever wins on their first day in this coming term, they’ll be the oldest president to set foot in the white House. And that is true. they’re octogenarians, but RFK Jr is a set the generic.

And so it’s not like he’s like the young chicken coming in from the side. I mean, this is no John Kennedy. which brings us to the third possibility that it could affect things on the Republican side. And I think that is far more realistic. the defining characteristic about RFK Jr is not that he’s a womanizer and a drug addict, or Kennedy.

It’s it is a conspiracy theorist. And if there is a conspiracy theory out there that involves vaccines or diseases or the Chinese or the Jews or slinkys or jello or the moon, he’s in, in fact, the Russian bot farmer has made a habit whenever they make up something fresh, they tag him because they know he’s going to shout it from the rooftops.

The problem here for Trump is that Trump thought he had cornered the batshit crazy vote, and now it’s going to be split. So there are some places that we had kind of penciled in that were locked in red for this upcoming election that might actually be in play, because the core group that Donald Trump has courted to ride himself to power are the populace.

And that’s the part of the country that tends to go for these conspiracy theories the most. So we might see some of the strongest supporters in some of the strongest counties and precincts, actually flipping towards RFK a little bit, and that would be more than enough to add to the other factors to make sure that Donald Trump doesn’t get back into the white House.

Whether, of course, that makes you jump for joy or cry in your milk depends upon where you stand.

Ask Peter: Will the Russians Create a Great Northern Sea Route?

As the ice begins to melt in the Arctic, will the Russians be able to establish a shipping route to the north? While establishing a northern sea route is possible, it won’t be the gold mine its been made out to be.

There are several factors that make the Russian’s northern sea route impractical: the need for navigational aids, limited search and rescue capabilities, lack of development and population centers along the route, and a high cost per mile given the absence of stops along the way. That’s before we even mention the unreliable military presence in this region and the financial constraints on projects like nuclear-powered icebreakers.

While this idea has some merit, I wouldn’t plan on shipping anything via ‘Russian Northern Express” anytime soon.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Colorado. We’ll take another entry from the Ask Peter Forum, specifically about Russia’s northern passage. The idea is that if the ice, in the Arctic melts, won’t it be possible for the Russians to allow shipping from Europe to China and back on a shorter route that doesn’t have to go through the South China Sea and around India and through the Middle East and the Suez around Africa and blah, blah, blah.

Basically, a much shorter route would be much cheaper, much safer and much better from a geopolitical point of view for the Russians and maybe even the Chinese. theoretically, there’s something to say about that. The travel times, as opposed to going around Africa, if you went around the northern, part of Eurasia would be about a week cheaper.

So you’d be having lower operating costs and less fuel required. but there’s a few problems. Number one, you need aides to navigation all ships using aides to navigation so they don’t hit things like reefs. They don’t hit each other. and that requires things that are basically anchored to the seabed. And you can’t do that in the Arctic because there’s moving sea ice.

So step one, you would have to wait until such time as the Arctic is ice free in the winter, not just the summer. So because if you went seasonally in the summer, you could theoretically do that in a lot of places now. But you have no aides. If you’ve got no aides, you need to have some excellent search and rescue capability.

Well, here’s another problem. The northern Russian coast is largely unpopulated, and with one exception, there are is not a single community that’s on the coast that is connected to the rest of Russia by road or rail. Everybody has to fly in. That means you’ve got almost no capacity within the Russian state to provide assistance to anyone who gets into trouble.

And that’s before you consider that the Russians are basically incompetent when it comes to navies, and their best ships have been sunk or damage as part of the Ukraine war. So there’s even not much of a military presence except for around, say, Archangel Murmansk in the extreme northwestern section. For the rest of the coast, it’s largely unpopulated. So if anybody gets into trouble, there is no one who can get to you in anything less than several days, probably a couple of weeks.

the third problem is that there’s nothing here to develop. so one of the reasons why the routes go the way they do is that there are population centers along the way. you don’t just have the Egyptians. You’ve got the entire North African coast. You’ve got, people in the Persian Gulf. Of course, the mega populations of India and to a lesser degree, Southeast Asia.

So these routes, you’ve got ships that stop along the way to kind of, in transit deliveries, which drops the relative cost of the long haul. That’s how containerization works these days. Ships generally make lots of stops along the way. And each one of those is a profit margin. If there’s no population, there’s no place to stop. Basically, once you get around, the southern tip of Norway or out of London, you know, you’re going around the north coast of Norway, which is empty, and then you hit Russia, which is empty.

And then there’s more Russia that’s empty, and then there’s more Russia that’s empty. You finally get through the Bering Strait, where you get to more Russia, and it’s still empty. so the cost might seem cheaper in terms of the amount of fuel that you’re going to burn. But at the end of the day, it’s a more expensive route per mile because there’s no way to recoup your costs along the way.

So the soonest, as soon, as soon soonest that this might theoretically work, is like 2050. That’s the soonest we might have an ice free Arctic in the winter. And that’s kind of a reach that’s using projections that no one’s really agrees on. And by that time, there’s not going to be a China anyway due to demographic collapse.

So, you know, kudos for the thought. The Russians have been pushing this from time to time, but at the end of the day, it’s not going to work. the only technology that might, might, might, might allow this to speed up is the Russians are big fans of nuclear powered civilian icebreakers. But with the Ukraine war going on, the funding for that project has basically dropped to zero.

So no.

Ask Peter: Can Other Countries Replicate the US Shale Revolution?

Energy independence has been a global priority over the past few decades, but not all of that black gold is created equal. The US has been able to capitalize on deposits of oil-bearing shale, so can others replicate this success with different types of oil?

The United States’ success isn’t quite copy and paste. Between private ownership rights ensuring personal gain, specific geological formations leading to huge deposits of oil bearing rock, and technical expertise, the US has flopped the nuts in this game of oil-poker.

There are some others that may have one or even two of these conditions, but there are plenty of obstacles they’ll have to overcome. Argentina is the outlier in all of this, since they have the shale, technical skills, and the government sets oil prices to ensure profitability for operators.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Israel and Iran Avoid War…For Now

Tensions between Israel and Iran have been escalating since the Hamas attacks in October, but are we going to see a full blown war between these two adversaries?

Between multiple bombings by Israel and a larger scale attack carried out by Iran, things were touch and go for a bit there. However, it appears that both sides are de-escalating the situation and will let off the gas for the time being.

Although the situation appears to be stabilizing, there could be some third party interference by a country who wouldn’t mind having a broader conflict break out…

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here, coming to you from Colorado. We’re gonna close the loop on what’s going on with Israel and Iran. in the aftermath of the Hamas attacks in October, the Iranians were needling at Israel, in order to just get some good PR in the Arab world in back home. of course, the Israelis were a little sensitive about that.

how about everything at the moment? and so when the, Iranians got a little bit too punchy, the Israeli slapped them down by bombing the Iranian consulate in Damascus and killing a large number of high ranking, leadership, for the IRGC. That’s their, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, which carries out a lot of the military operations in Syria and Lebanon and Interface’s Hezbollah.

I basically, Israel took out the entire leadership, in Iran. Couldn’t believe they went after diplomatic grounds to do it. So, you know, anyway, Iran was like, wow, wow. Okay, they’re a little sensitive right now. We need to dial this back because we were just having some fun. And clearly they’re treating this a lot more serious than we are.

So they sent all these, missiles and drones and artillery rockets into Israel as retaliation. But they telegraphed, their attack days ahead and actually provided the technical specs to the Swiss embassy, which passed it on to the United States so that the U.S. and the Brits and the Jordanians and the Israelis could basically just light it all up and, shoot them down one after the other.

And no one was hurt and no meaningful damage was done. the question then was, what’s next? Because the Americans were like, all right, hey, yeah, this is great. This is a great climbdown. You get to claim face, we get to say coalition is working, and the Israelis get to say that their Iron Dome missile defense works great.

Everybody wins. The only potential, for the ointment is looking at Israel. Are you okay? and Israel decided mostly was. So what happened this last Friday is Israel did a counter strike, on Iran. But the only thing that they took out was the air defense at a very specific military facility in Israel. Had just happens that military facility in Michigan was right next to the primary Iranian nuclear research facility.

so basically, the Iranians, the Israelis are like, yes, we’re not bro’s, but we’re cool for now. But just to underline the fact that we could have done so much more, even without any help from the United States. So at the moment, everyone is backing off, and at the moment it seems that no one in the Middle East is interested in a broader conflict, with the exception, of course, of the Russians, who would love it as a distraction.

Things I (Do and Don’t) Worry About: Global Internet

This is probably the scariest video I’ve posted for any of my Gen Z audience…that’s right, we’re talking about the one thing they can’t live without – the internet. So, just how vulnerable is the global internet?

Global internet connectivity is heavily reliant on trans-oceanic cables (sure, we have things like Starlink, but that has limited capacity to the traditional cable systems). These cable systems are fragmented and sequestered in nature, which create isolated regions. This means that there are specific points of vulnerability.

The bigger problem is that the locations of these cables isn’t all that hidden, so a group like the Houthis could target them with ease. However, the fragility of international connectivity can also be seen as a strategic advantage, because the US could cut communication channels at the drop of a hat…should they ever need to.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan coming to you from Colorado. today is our latest entry in our ongoing series of things I do and don’t Worry about. And this one is both has to do with trans oceanic cables, which connect the continents in terms of the internet, we basically have a highly sequestered and fragmented system in North America, South America, Africa, Western Europe, Asia and South Asia and Southeast Asia.

all of these things are barely linked together. And to the degree that they are, that goes through a series of cables that go through predictable routes. So obviously, North America and South America are separate from the rest of the world by the Pacific in the Atlantic Ocean, but they’re also separated from each other, with the, Panamanian isthmus being the only point of connection.

And there’s a section called the Dorian Gap that has no roads, no rail, no pipe, no power. in terms of separating Europe from China, the Russian space has become a lot less reliable of late. And so while there are still cables across that zone, they’re not nearly as capable, as reliable as they used to be. There’s no connections between the Middle East and Africa because it goes through Israel, and that’s a connection that cannot be made.

and then South Asia and Southeast Asia have reasonable connections. Southeast Asia and China have reasonable connections. but the Himalayas stop any direct connections between South Asia and, say, China. And then, of course, countries like South Korea, Taiwan and Japan are either literal islands or functional islands. So it doesn’t take a particularly genius to find these cables and cut them, as the Houthis have already shown that they’re willing to do for some of the connections between southern Asia and Europe.

They’re routes that go through the ocean, through the Gulf of Aden, through the bad el Mandeb and the Red sea before crossing Suez and going on to Europe. so we’ve got this fractured system of 5 to 8, based on how you draw the line for connectivity systems that are linked by just a handful of cables. So it doesn’t take much genius to basically breakdown international trade in services.

the only way you could get things if the cables go down is something like Starlink, which is less than 4% of international traffic. Now, that said, that is hard to disrupt because there’s hundreds of Starlink satellites with more going up every week. if we ever get into a situation where the United States is in an information war where targets that transmit information being targeted, you can guarantee that Starlink is going to be nationalized.

As one of the first acts of the U.S government. We’re not there yet, thank God. Anyway, that’s the part I do worry about. The white part of don’t worry about is if we ever really are in a hot war with the near pure power, say for example, China. it’s not just would be disruptors like the Houthis who know where these cables are.

The U.S. government knows where each and every one of them is. In fact, they’re on maps. So if we get to a situation where there’s kind of a mass hacking attack from China, all we have to do is go out and cut the cables, because, let’s be honest, if we’re in a real war, the last thing that Washington is gonna be concerned about is whether or not internet connectivity and emails going back and forth across the Pacific at a high speed.

So this is something that is very easy to disrupt. And as long as you’re interested in a world that works together, that’s bad. But if we ever get to the point where it’s obvious that the world is not working together, it’s good because it means it’s easy to bring down in a matter of just a few days.

The End of the World is Just The Beginning

Disunited NAtions

The Absent Superpower

The accidental superpower

The End of the World is Just The Beginning

Disunited Nations

The Absent Superpower

The Absent Superpower

The End of the World is Just The Beginning

Disunited NAtions

The Absent Superpower

The accidental superpower

The End of the World is Just The Beginning

Disunited Nations

The Absent Superpower

The Absent Superpower

The End of the World is Just The Beginning

Disunited NAtions

The Absent Superpower

The accidental superpower

The End of the World is Just The Beginning

Disunited Nations

The Absent Superpower

The Absent Superpower

The End of the World is Just The Beginning

Disunited NAtions

The Absent Superpower

The accidental superpower

The End of the World is Just The Beginning

Disunited Nations

The Absent Superpower

The Absent Superpower

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Please join Peter Zeihan and the Zeihan on Geopolitics team on Friday, May 10th at 12:00 PM EST for our upcoming webinar - The State of Global Energy.

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