Recession for (Almost) Everyone!

I was scanning the financial news this morning and realized Germany was in recession. In my morning brief I was informed Japan was in recession as well. On a call with a client someone brought up that the United Kingdom had joined the downers club. A quick convo with the staff revealed the same was true for Hungary and Ireland. And Greece and Lithuania and Estonia and Finland. Israel probably as well, while Australia, New Zealand, France, Spain and Italy are only a rounding error away. China’s data, such that it is, suggests that the Middle Kingdom is by most definitions at best recession-adjacent.

We’ve known for awhile that between China’s stumbles and global demographic aging that consumption-led growth on a global scale has become nearly impossible. The problem is we have lacked the data to confirm what theory dictates. GDP growth data always comes out with a lag of months. Often multiple quarters for many places. And COVID (~&@#^*-ing COVID) scrambled everyone’s data for nearly three years. Well, we’re starting to get a good deep look at reality again, and it appears we may already be past the point where the sort of economic activity we’ve all thought of as “normal” for so long is simply…over.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

Europe’s Latest S*** Show: Farmers On Strike

If you’ve seen the videos of tractors driving through city centers and spraying manure on government buildings, then you’re well aware of the farmer protests happening throughout Europe…but why are they protesting?

The protests, which started in France, are in response to regulatory changes and reduced funding for agriculture in the EU. The Common Agricultural Program has seen drastic cuts to funding and increased restrictions facing farmers.

Despite Europe being a very strong agricultural zone, countries like the US and Brazil stack on the pressure for these European farmers with their higher yields and lower price points. We’ll continue to monitor and release updates as this situation unfolds.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

Israel and Russia Fall Out + Kindle Deal of the Day

Photo of Iron Dome missile defense system firing

KINDLE DEAL OF THE DAY

On March 10, you can get The Accidental Superpower: Ten Years On eBook for only $3.99!

Get your ebook here

If you haven’t purchased the The Accidental Superpower: Ten Years On yet, March 10 is the time to buy! Kindle has selected the eBook version as the Deal of the Day for March 10! We’ll be sending out another email as we get closer to the date.

Back to Israel and Russia Falling Out…

In a marked shift away from the historical relationship between Israel and Moscow, Israel plans to send early warning radar to Ukraine. The details of this plan are still unconfirmed, but let’s break it down.

Israel has developed some of the most advanced missile and drone detection and defense systems, known as the Iron Dome System. What’s being sent to Ukraine will likely be a much more basic version; regardless, it will be an invaluable piece of tech for the Ukrainian’s defense capabilities.

This move by Israel could also signify the beginning of increased cooperation with Western allies – most notably the US. Once the flood gates open, intelligence sharing, some Western funding, and enhancements to military capabilities shouldn’t be too far behind.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

Talking Iran and China on Danger Close with Jack Carr

If you’ve followed me for a while, you’ll probably recognize Jack Carr and his show Danger Close. Last week, he released our latest episode together and if you haven’t seen it yet, I encourage you to tune in.

This episode is about an hour long and we discuss a number of heavy hitting topics. We explore Iran’s historical and geographical influences on culture, along with the greater Iranian threat via proxy groups including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis. We also discuss China’s birth rate crisis and the potential motives for a Taiwan invasion, portraying a bleak vision of the future as a desperate attempt to save a dying empire.

You can see more of Jack Carr’s content and watch the interview at the link below…

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

Tourism Trends: Where Are You Spending Vacation?

Before I take the stage at the Country Music Hall of Fame here in Nashville, I figured we should talk about the future of tourism and where all the bachelorette parties are heading next.

There’s three demographic groups impacting tourism trends, and each of them is looking for something a little different. The baby boomers want specific experiences tailored to their preferences (less walking, but a bit spendy-er). The millennials are realizing kids are expensive and trips are going to have fit into tighter budgets. And the most interesting segment shaking up tourism are the blue-collar workers; they make up a large portion of the workforce and are leaning towards places like Nashville over traditional destinations.

Consumer preferences are changing, budgets are evolving, and international travel is just filled with too much uncertainty. So pack a duffel bag, ditch the passport, and go enjoy those domestic (or at least safe and stable) travel plans.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

A North Dakota Love Story: Agriculture and Railways

For all those with an aversion to woodchippers…today’s video is for you. That’s right, I’m in Fargo, North Dakota and we’re discussing the state’s agricultural prowess despite a lack of water access.

While most Midwest states rely on river systems for shipping, North Dakota has built an extremely robust rail system that facilitates the transportation of their agricultural products. These railways connect to both the Mississippi River and the Pacific Coast, which broadens and diversifies market access.

As impacts to global agricultural markets increase, the importance of North Dakota foodstuffs will only grow. However, the shale revolution has introduced some competition for rail space between the agriculture and energy industries, but that’s a story for another time.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

Question Time with Peter Zeihan: Episode 2

This is the second episode of our new series ‘Question Time with Peter Zeihan!’ Every week or so I’ll be sitting down with one of the team members from Zeihan on Geopolitics and have them dish out some rapid-fire questions from the ‘Ask Peter’ forum. I’ll be joined by my Social Media Manager, Kyle, for the first few episodes.

In this episode, we’ll be discussing immigration in Germany, the Hamas-Israel conflict, agricultural challenges in Sudan and South Africa, the UK’s trade relationship with the US post-Brexit, the future of blue-collar work and productivity enhancement through automation and AI.

If you’d like to submit a question for a future installment, click the link below.

Ask Peter Zeihan

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

Should We Worry About Chinese Land Purchases in the US?

I’ve had a lot of you write in concerned about Chinese land purchases in the United States. There’s not much to be concerned about here, but let me paint the full picture for you.

Foreign ownership of US land is quite limited, and the Chinese portion of that is just a sliver of the pie (Canada has the largest piece of the pie for those curious). To temper worries even further, most of this US land is being bought by Chinese individuals simply trying to park their assets outside of China…and you can’t really blame them for that. If you need even more reason not to stress, just look at the historical precedence of foreign assets being seized in times of conflict.

It’s good to ponder these questions and keep an eye on things like foreign land ownership in the US, but as of now, there’s really no need for concern.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

Talks of the Trade with James Fraser & J.P. Morgan

I recently had the opportunity to sit down with J.P. Morgan Payments’ Global Head of Trade and Working Capital, James Fraser, for episode 2 of “Talks of the Trade.”

In this episode, we discussed how global markets and cross-border trade flows are vulnerable to geopolitical risks; these factors can have oversized impacts on costs, access to capital, and overall economic stability. We do a deep dive on a handful of these factors, including deglobalization, international tensions and crises, world financial markets, urbanization, manufacturing, and supply chain risks.

Click the link below to watch other episodes or to learn more about Trade and Working Capital at J.P. Morgan Payments…

Learn more

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

Sweden In NATO (Recap)

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has indicated that Sweden accession to NATO shall be ratified by the Hungarian Parliament before March 1, which means Sweden will soon be welcomed into the alliance as a full member.

Sweden will be a very capable addition to NATO, as opposed to some other nations’ lackluster contributions. Between Sweden’s military prowess and strategic position on the Baltic Sea, there’s potential that Sweden has some immediate influence over NATO policies regarding Russia and Baltic states.

I suspect that Sweden will emerge as a prominent voice within the alliance and play a large role in the coming years.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts