The Russian Reach: Christian Ultranationalism

Photo of a bible on the US constitution and flag

I’ve been on the receiving end of more than a few theories on what might be contributing to the absurdity that we’re seeing. One of the more interesting ideas is that there could be some Christian ultranationalism on the table.

Christian Ultranationalism is the ideology that blends extreme nationalism with religious rhetoric, promoting the idea that a global cabal is working to eradicate the white race – and yes, it is often just a cover for racism and anti-immigrant beliefs. The basic premise is that everything in the Western world needs to be toppled and rebuilt.

There are plenty of figures within the US administration that adhere to these beliefs, and they are OBSESSED with South Africa and Russia. Obviously, there’s a lot of discrepancies mixed into this belief system, which makes it an even more dangerous manipulation of religion for political purposes. Oh, and it just so happens to mirror a lot of Russian propaganda efforts.

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Hey, all Peter Zeihan here, coming to you from Scottsdale, Arizona. Since we started the Russian Reach series, a lot of you have been writing in with little tips, information that you’ve got from within the government system right up into the white House, which is kind of crazy. And, alternative theories that might match the facts in front of us. 

And one of these, I think, is worth exploring a little bit. It’s called Christian nationalism. Or really, what it is, is ultra nationalism. It’s the idea that there’s this global cabal out there that is working to undermined and eradicate the white race. It tends to be obviously wildly racist, opposed to immigration in pretty much all forms, unless they’re white people, very violent and, distrust any sort of large organization. 

So they generally hate Catholics, specifically the Pope, Muslims or worse. And as a rule, they think that, Western civilization has been corrupted or controlled from within by these larger forces. And so all of Western civilization needs to be torn down to the studs have been rebuilt with a fusion of church and state. Of course, there’s no agreement as to what church means. 

So really, it’s just a cover for people to be wildly racist and say that white people should be in charge. 

Powerful white people, specific, Powerful white people. Within the American administration, the four biggest adherents would be, Russell Vought, the OMB. Elon Musk, of course, on the outside looking in is Peter Thiel. And then JD Vance, the vice president, is a member of this general. 

It’s not even a club, but worldview. And that kind of gives you an idea of just how flexible, the ideology of Christian ultra nationalism is. It’s, you know, JD Vance is a Catholic, although a practically evangelical Catholic. Elon Musk is practically agnostic. Peter Thiel is gay. So there’s all it’s kind of a big tent with a lot of ideas. 

All I can really say that kind of draws it all together is there’s nothing about it that’s actually Christian. 

I’m no theologian, but I’m fairly certain that there’s a nice hot spot on the other side of the veil for people who try to actually put this into practice. Anyway, there are some commonalities here that kind of run the rainbow with this group that everybody agrees on. There are two countries in particular that they’re just obsessed about. 

And the first is South Africa, because here is a country that white people brought civilization to. And clearly, with the end of apartheid and the return of majority rule by blacks. Clearly this is part of an effort by the globalist cabal to test out white genocide. So when Donald Trump picked a fight on a random Tuesday with the South African government, it didn’t just completely come out of the blue. 

It was routed on by these groups, specifically Elon Musk, who was born in South Africa. The other country that the Ultranationalists are really obsessed with is Russia. They see Russia as fighting the good fight and its demographic collapse as a warning to white people everywhere of what could happen if the Muslim hordes were allowed to rise up. 

And as a result, Christian Ultranationalists are pretty much pro-Russian, no matter what the Russians do. So, for example, if they attack another Christian nation, Ukraine, that’s fine, because they’re just trying to hold the torch for the rest of us. And it’s just it’s kind of silly because the Putin government, one of his chief pillars of support are the ultra violent Muslim Chechens who carry out pogroms against Christians regularly and the Russian military forces when they went into Ukraine. 

 One of the first groups that they attacked were American evangelical ministers which is one of the reasons why it’s kind of just a shade in the background. It’s people using religion as a cover to do horrible things. 

Not that we’ve ever seen that before. 

But the reason it’s worth talking about is not only are some of these people very well placed within the current administration, but, there’s a lot of overlap between Christian nationalism and Russian propaganda these days. The Russians are very well aware of this trend, and they’ve worked to encourage it across Europe and the United States for quite some time. 

And a lot of their useful idiots throughout the US and European political systems fall into this Christian nationalist camp. I’m sure you can all come up with a few names yourself if you put your mind to it. The idea that Russia is beleaguered and needs assistance and should be respected is something that dovetails very nicely with the Russian mindset. 

Every country has their own reason why they think they’re better than everyone else, and for the Russians, they have superiority complex that is based on an inferiority complex. The idea is that we have suffered so much. Therefore, you should do things our way. It’s very powerful, for motivating Russians. And now it’s being repeated basically by these Christian ultranationalists. 

And so whether the issue is going after U.S. intelligence, part of the cabal, going after the European Union, part of the cabal, or simply trying to give the Russians, what they want in places like Ukraine fighting back against the cabal. The Russians have done what they can to dovetail their existing propaganda with these forces. 

So yeah, it can be both. Not just the Russians, but trying to dovetail with a more domestically oriented group that is trying to use a bastardization of religion to achieve its political goals.

Making Sense of Africa: Congo and Rwanda

Photo of Rwanda, Africa and goats on the horizon

Let’s take a breather from the Russian Reach series and talk about something going on in Africa. Specifically, we’ll be looking at the escalating conflict between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Rwanda is a small but densely populated country, with a history of sending militias into neighboring Congo. This latest offensive led by M23 has been making a significant push toward the Katanga region, home to one of the world’s largest copper-cobalt deposits. Since the DRC produces roughly 75% of the world’s cobalt, this has obviously caught the attention of some bigger players.

China and South Africa are the main operators in the region as of now, but the Congolese government has offered the US exclusive oversight of the copper-cobalt belt in exchange for protection against Rwanda. Should Trump care to set out on this endeavor, it will be a large undertaking. The US would have to partner with Angola or Mozambique to tap into South Africa’s transportation network or build new infrastructure in eastern Congo (which would be challenging).

This conflict could spiral into a major war – one akin to previous conflicts in the region, killing millions and involving numerous foreign powers. And given the rising tensions between the US and China, we could be staring down a geopolitical flashpoint.

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Colorado. And today we’re talking about something completely different, specifically what’s going on with Rwanda and Congo. And I think that I’m gonna make this relevant. Okay. Who are they? First of all, Ronda is a tiny, tiny little country. One of the little landlocked ones, just to the west of the Horn of Africa and Congo is the opposite. 

This huge country in the heart of equatorial Africa really only has a tiny little frontage, so it might as well be landlocked. But it’s larger than all of the countries of Western Europe combined. What do they have in common? Not a lot. Their borders are demarcated because of the way that the colonial era ran. And so, especially in the case of Congo, it makes very little sense. 

But what Rwanda has going forward is it’s just in the right spot with volcanic soil, just enough upland to keep the humidity under control. That is incredibly fertile. So it’s probably the densest population density on the continent once you’ve removed Egypt, which is a very special case. As a result, it always has a high fertility rate and generates a lot of populations. 

And it’s generally led by people who are not particularly nice. And so every once in a while, they send an army across their borders to muck with somebody else for whatever reason. The world has called that genocide in the past. And so the way that the Rwandans have adapted is by generating a militia that they don’t control, that just happens to go out and do things that they like to get done. 

It’s complete pretexts called M23. Anyway, M23 has been operating in eastern Congo now for a few years, and in recent weeks actually managed to capture a couple significant cities of size. And they’re continuing on the march. And there’s really nothing Congolese can do about it, because Congo’s territory is a shit show. It’s jungle, it’s mountainous, it’s it’s forested, it’s steep, it’s remote. 

There are very few roads in the country. And so while Kinshasa, the nominal capital all the way in the west, is officially controls all of it, you really had these series of regional capitals that operate like little fiefdoms. It’s a very holy Roman Empire. Well, what is happening now is that the Rwandan groups M23 are basically breaking out of their region in the northeast part of the country and moving further south and further west, and that is pushing them towards the Katanga region, which is the site of Congo’s copper cobalt belt, which is one of the world’s richest mineral sources, specifically providing roughly 70 to 75% of the world’s cobalt. 

And if you want to live in a world that involves batteries in some way, when we’re talking like electric vehicle batteries or grid cell batteries, you have to have cobalt. So all of a sudden, this has gotten very, very real. The last time Rwanda did this at scale, they overthrew the Congolese government. And imposed one of their proxies in charge, and he ruled the country until about Fugees 2008 2018. 

It’s been a hot minute, but, for a while, and that happened back in 1999 to 2001. You guys may remember the name Mobutu. He was the guy who took over for the Belgians after they left. He ran the place into the ground until that eventually the Rwandans ousted him. Anyway, we have a different government now, but there are painfully aware of when Rwanda decides that they want to oversee you through your government. 

They can, because the Rwandans are supplied, they’ve got cash and they have the unofficial blessing of the international community for a weird reason. Because if you remember back, there was, a series of genocides not too long ago in Rwanda, and the guy who eventually emerged and, on top of that, a guy by the name of Kagame, basically made nice with the Western institutions, in order to and ended the genocide. 

So, you know, I don’t mean to take away that from him, but he’s borderline genocidal himself. And now he’s turning his tender mercies onto Congo. So far, no one has called him to the carpet on it. I really doubt the Trump administration is going to do that. In other news, you have to watch who is ultimately going to end up control this belt. 

Right now, the Chinese are probably the largest operators in the cobalt space, whereas South Africa plays a role in transport because they control the rail network that takes the ore from the copper side of things, which is a lot bulkier than the cobalt and takes it down to their ports in South Africa for shipping out, no matter what shape the world is in, five, ten, 15 years from now, the materials from. 

Congo are going to be central. The world does not have enough copper. The United States needs to massively improve its industrial plant even before you consider the Green Revolution. And everything with the Green Revolution revolves around electricity. So you need it for the wiring and the batteries and everything else. And then, of course, the copper itself. 

So this is a space to watch. And I just had to shove this in there between all the Trump stuff that’s going on. 

Well, shit, there’s a trump angle to this one too. In the time that it took me to walk back to download this, the Congolese government has offered Donald Trump personally that if they come and protect Congo from Rwanda, that they will sign a deal that gives the Americans oversight and access to the entire copper cobalt belt. Something like the copper cobalt belt is in the southeastern part of the country. 

It is not well linked up to the rest of the country at all. This is one of the reasons why the Rwandans, are making a play for it, because the Congolese really can’t defend it. The only infrastructure in the area that really does link it to the outside world goes south down the spine of southern Africa into South Africa. 

But South Africa, no longer has the expeditionary military force to project power up that line. And the only other country in the region that really has military power at all would be Angola. And they’re on the wrong side of the jungles as well. So if if the United States were to do this, we’d have to do one of two things. 

Number one, it would have to cut a deal with either Angola or Mozambique or both to access that South African spine in order to come in from the south and probably be the easiest way. And the Biden administration did make a lot of progress with Angola on firming up the relationship at the detriment of China. The second option would be cut a deal with consortia. 

You know, Congo’s nominal government and build out the infrastructure that would be necessary to go in from the east. The Congo option would be the illegal option. The Angola or the Mozambique option would be the imperial option. And before you say anything about Donald Trump and imperialism, just keep in mind we are talking here about the deep, dark heart of Africa. 

So the infrastructure is non-existent. The militants are everywhere. And the last time we had a major war in this region, which was just in the 90s, in the 2000, at least 2 million people died and 17 countries were involved. And that’s before you consider, say, outside powers like China, the United States. So if you are looking for a long, drawn out, messy approach to getting critical minerals, this might be just your speed.

A Fresh Mess In Syria

Photo of a bombed out Syrian city

Government-backed paramilitary forces (supported by Turkey) in Syria’s Alawite enclave brutally suppressed the Alawite opposition. The Alawites are now seeking protection at Russian military bases as the Sunni-led government consolidates power.

Turkey’s support was critical in this crackdown and furthers the Turkish goal of weakening opposition along their Southern border. The Russians are getting squeezed out of the region, although Israel would prefer they stay in place to keep Syria fragmented.

Israel isn’t the only one favoring the Russians though; US policy is shifting in favor of Russian interests in Syria. This is just another layer of how Russian influence is reshaping global power dynamics.

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Peter Zeihan here coming to you from the Denver airport. Today we’re talking about something happened yesterday, and they did before. Basically, we had a blow up of violence in the Alawite enclave of Syria. Now the highlights live on a coastal enclave that’s heavily forested on the west side of a mountainous ridge that separates the interior of the Fertile Crescent region from the Mediterranean. 

 This is the place where a couple of the Russian bases are called on Tartus and, Bonnie on. I mean, buddy is something like that. Anyway, it’s unclear what started. The Alawites had reason to go after the government. The new government, which is Sunni different ethno sectarian group, had reasons to go after the Alawites. 

And the Alawites were the ethnic group that the previous dictator, Assad, came from. So it’s unclear who pulled the trigger first, but both of them went at it and the government absolutely came out on top. Specifically groups of the paramilitary group that’s aligned with the government called the FCS. They’re the ones who recently, decisively won the Civil War. 

They’re the ones who did most of the killing. And several hundred, civilians were basically dragged out the street shot. They had group definitely had a hit list lined up. And so it’s unclear who started the fight. It’s very clear who finished it. A couple things here, number one. The government forces backed by or vice versa. 

We’re a little bit too confident, a little bit too together. Had a little bit too good of Intel and too good of weapons for just being a government that has been there for less than two months at this point. So their sponsors, the Turkish government, were absolutely in play and they wanted these massacres to happen. It’s not hard to see why the Alawites were the core of the previous government that was anti-Western, anti-American, anti-Israeli and anti Turkish. 

And the Turks want to make sure that everyone in the northern perimeter of Syria is either broken or on their side. And this one along we would mean that. But that brings us to the second thing. The Russians have had bases in Syria for about a decade now, and they intervened very decisively in the favor of the old government in the Civil war, killing probably close to 100,000 people before all was said and done, mostly civilians. 

And the Russians would like to hang on to the two naval bases that they have on the coast. But they were in the process of getting squeezed out by the Turks and the new Syrian government. Well, a few things. Number one, the Alawites now are apparently congregating outside the bases asking for protection. But number two, the Israelis kind of would like to have the Russians keep at least a nominal foothold because it would shatter Syria and prevent it from ever resurrecting itself as any sort of threat to Israel again. 

But third, far more importantly, is the chief Russian agent in the US government, Tulsi Gabbard, is now starting to agitate actively against the new Syrian government in favor of the Alawites. And it’s probably only going to be a matter of days before she, and by extension, the US government, starts actively asking the Russians to stay behind. We’ve been seeing American, foreign and strategic policy tilt towards the Russians in any number of ways. 

It’s loudest in Ukraine. It’s also happening within NATO’s Europe. It’s also now happening in places like Japan. And now we have it also in Syria. So the degree of Russian penetration into the white House really is robust, and it’s starting to reshape regional dynamics in ways that will empower the Russians for years, if not decades to come and will complicate American foreign policy for years, if not decades to come. 

Yeah, that’s all I got to.

The Russian Reach: A Grip on Romania

Romanian flag

If Russia’s influence can make its way into the US on the scale we’re discussing, you can only imagine how bad it is in places like Romania. In December of last year, we discussed the “Red Strings in Romania” (which you can watch here: https://youtu.be/LP7tkPO6Wqk – but things have ramped up.

Romania annulled its presidential election due to proven Russian interference, mainly with Georgescu. He has now been barred from running in May in the re-election. Let’s circle back to how this is playing out in the US.

Tulsi Gabbard and JD Vance have criticized Romania, claiming that Europe is now a bigger threat than Russia. Couple that with the purging of any intelligent government officials near these issues and it’s looking like the US administration is making the case for a broader NATO withdrawal. And I would expect it to only get worse from here.

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Hey all, Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from my house. I’m about ready to jump in the car and head to the airport, but quick news update. A few months ago there were presidential elections in Romania. They did in two rounds. And the guy who came in first place? Guy by the name of Călin Georgescu. 

 It was a nobody. I’ve been in a couple of minor roles in government. The 1990s really hasn’t done anything with his life since. Except for kind of shifted to the hard right, Nazi salutes and everything. Anyway, Romanian authorities, were able to easily prove Russian intervention in the election. 

Both funding for, rescue specifically. So he’s under criminal investigation right now. As well as, my just a huge social media presence that the Russians have fabricated with as many, fake followers as there are citizens in Romania. So it was it was really beyond the pale. The Russians wanted to see how far they could go. 

Anyway, the first round election was annulled. Repeat elections are going to be held in May. And the news overnight is that George Eskew, has been barred from even running, because of the investigation, because of the Russian influence. Now, this, matters for two reasons. First of all, the U.S government now, both Tulsi Gabbard, who is the director of National intelligence, who has been working with and for the Russians for the better part of a decade, and JD Vance, the vice president, have both come out publicly and said that what the Romanians are doing to withdraw George Eskew is part of the reason why Europe is now a bigger threat to the United States than, the Russians are, which is, you know, propaganda of which the Russians are just gleeful to have people at the top of the American system saying that. And now that you’re just you want to be able to loud to run, you should expect, those statements of the United States to get much, much firmer. 

Two things. Their number one, I can’t speak to JD Vance. That investigation is still in progress, but, Tulsi Gabbard, she’s in the process of going through all the Intel, the strictures, and basically purging anyone who knows anything about counter Russian operations, specifically about her. So that’s a problem. Second, it appears that elements within the administration are looking for a minor ally, like, say, Romania, because they’re in NATO. 

To have a formal breach of relations with in order to basically justify some of their policies and especially, set the stage for a full NATO withdrawal, by the United States. And this is shaping up to be the perfect test case for that. So the Romanians are doing what they need to to protect their system. Decision makers within the American government are very clearly working hand in glove with the Russians on this, and things are going to get a lot worse before they even pretend to tilt towards getting better.

The Russian Reach: Categorizing Intelligence Agents

Man looking a computer screen with reflection

The Russian intelligence system is comprised of a vast and interconnected network of agents. Each of these pawns plays a different role in supporting the “king” back in Moscow.

Today we’ll be exploring these different roles and how they fit into the master plan of the Russian machine.

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Forthcoming…

The Russian Reach: Playing Catch Up Part 2

AI generated image of russia and world

This is part 2 of my attempt at catching up to current events in our Russian Reach series. Again, I’m going to let the videos do the speaking for themselves, but here are some questions to ask yourself before diving in:

Am I dreaming? Did I take any hard drugs in the past week? Am I still in my dystopian FPS augmented reality simulator? Whether you answer ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ to those questions, you’re in for a rude awakening…

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Hey everyone. Peter Zeihan here. You are about to watch a video on a series that I’ve put together called The Russian Reach, which examines the role of the Russians in manipulating the current white House as well as the US government in a broader sense. 

For anyone who signs up for my newsletter for watching any video for the remainder of the month, any sense that you would have normally given me for the next three months is going to a medical charity called Med Share. 

But your steps in to help out communities who, through no fault of their own, have temporarily lost the ability to look out for themselves. So, for example, if the Russians are bombing your power grid and the Americans are no longer providing the tactical intelligence so you can anticipate the missile strikes and position your air defense and the Americans. 

Furthermore, have stopped all financing to help you repair said power grid. In the aftermath, Medicare steps in to help hospitals with things like diesel generators. This QR code will take you directly to the Ukraine page, and that is where all of the donations will be going. 

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here. Let’s see. Let’s start with the Defense Department. Secretary Hegseth, has said that the reports that he gave the order to stop cyber operations, defending and defending against Russian cyber operations or disrupting their cyber operations was not actually true. Didn’t say the statement. He just retweeted somebody else’s, newspaper article. I have no way of confirming that personally. 

But I will point out the original report came from within the Department of Defense. So I have my doubts. But for the moment, let’s just take folks off at his word. Good. Because the Russians have certainly not stopped hacking us. But if you look across the rest of the US government, the trend is definitely in the direction of just lying back and let it happen. 

So there’s something called, let me show you this. Right. See, so the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, this is the group that prevents, the Russians from hacking the elections. Either going after the hardware or participating in misinformation. It wasn’t disbanded. It’s just all the people were fired, and, no one has been brought in to do the work since then. 

Second one comes out of the Justice Department, which, Pam Bondi is the secretary of Justice now, and Task Force Klepto Capture, which was designed to go after foreign assets held primarily by Russian oligarchs. They basically stopped that work altogether. So it doesn’t matter where you got your money. If it’s from theft or criminality or whatever else. If you’re Russian, you’re in the clear. Now. Investigations have stopped, and the third one is at the FBI, the Foreign Agents Registration Act. Basically, if you’re in the United States and you’re a citizen, you’re going to be doing the work for foreign government. You have to register of doing the work for the foreign government. Well, not anymore. 

Donald Trump’s team has fallen, a foul of this act. Many, many, many, many, many times, for either not reporting or reporting after the fact. And now you just don’t have to do it at all. So we’re on a one off for China mean it’s not going to be enforced. 

 Want to work for Russia? Go for it, Turkey. Take your pick. Okay. What’s next? 

All right, let’s talk about what’s going on with the federal bureaucracy for in terms of hiring and firing. So first, some good news. The Trump administration has reinstated the people who were disassembling nuclear weapons. The people that he fired while the weapons were disassembled, the check on, you know, safety and maintenance of the so-called those people are back at the jobs, thank God. 

Okay. However, overall, in the last eight days, the rate of firings has increased dramatically. We’re probably up to about 70,000 people have been fired. That’s about two, maybe 2.5% of the workforce. Keep in mind, these people aren’t really gone. Because, Trump doesn’t have the legal authority to fire them. So, in the time that since Trump has come in, which is we’re in week setting, I think, most of these people have been been reinstated by labor boards and especially courts. 

Thing to keep in mind is that the premier authority in the United States is not the president’s Congress. Congress, establishes the bureaus and the departments and pays for them with taxpayer funds. And it’s up to the president to manage them. Now, the president does have a huge amount of autonomy and how to do that. But there are limits. 

And so in this specific case, what we’re seeing is the people have basically been reinstated by the courts, but the Trump administration is not letting them back to work. However, Congress has mandated that the services that they were providing still be provided. So we’re starting to see large scale hiring of contractors to do the work. So, basically, we’re paying for everything twice now. 

So budget deficit goes up. And if this sounds familiar to some of you, that’s because this happened also during the first Trump term. So he apparently either didn’t learn his lesson or thought that if he did it on a grander scale with less competent subordinates, he would get a different outcome. And he does get a different outcome. 

It’s costing more. Okay. What’s next? 

Okay, let’s talk tariffs. On the 4th of March, when we launched the series, Trump had just announced a 25% tariff on Canadian Mexican products. Two things going on here. He instinctively believes that a trade deficit is something that, is unfair. And so he wants to get that down to zero. And we do have large trade deficits with both countries. 

But keep in mind that, every Canadian province and every northern Mexican state trades more with the United States, and they do with the rest of their country, which is another way of saying that their industrial plant is fully integrated into ours. And so we get all the benefits of their industrial plant without having to pay for their Social Security equivalent, their health care system, their infrastructure, their education, any other maintenance. 

So we get the results of all the good stuff without having to pay for all the stuff that comes from running a government. This is a really good deal. Anyway, Trump has, of course, modified his position and say, now it’s all about illegal migrants and, fentanyl. Keep in mind that fentanyl is not actually controlled by the drug cartels. 

It’s a mom and pop operation where three guys in a garage can make tens of thousands of doses very easily. Also, the precursor materials come from China. That’s why the Chinese have their own tariff structure now, which is now at 20%. 

But, those precursor materials are shipped largely through the US mail to the United States, where they are repackaged and then shipped on to Mexico. So if you’re looking for the low hanging fruit and how to, destroy fentanyl is a problem, and you don’t want to go after demand in the United States, going after the post office is a much cleaner, simpler, cheaper method. Because as long as we have these tariffs going on and often enough. Oh, sorry, I forgot to say, on the sixth. 

Yeah. On the sixth, Trump had, conversations with both. Claudia, shame on the Mexican president and Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister. And the tariffs, for the most part, were deferred for another month. So they were originally put on in February. They were pushed a month. They took effect for 48 hours. They have been pushed another month. And this back and forth and back and forth and back and forth, has generated so much geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty that inward investment of the United States, it’s basically frozen, especially for American companies, because they just don’t know what the rules of the game are going to be. 

And so even if you’ve got a stronger tariff today, against China, you really don’t want to move your industrial plant if you don’t know what the rules of the game are going to be. There’s one other problem is that, you know, one of my favorite quotes, the enemy gets a vote. The Canadians, did a first round of small tariffs, to counter Trump on the fourth. 

They haven’t pulled those back. And Ontario, which is the largest, most populous, most industrialized, most integrated in the United States province, their premier, premiers kindof a governor in the American parlance. Ford has announced that on Monday, which will be the 9th of March, I believe that a 25% tariff will go into place on all electricity exports to the United States, and that primarily affects New York, Minnesota and especially Michigan. 

So Detroit was already freaking out. Because the tariffs that Trump put into place affect anything that crosses the border. And the integration between Detroit and Ontario sees products go back and forth across the border on an average of like 6 or 8 times. And so they be terrified each time, which would add somewhere between 4 and $10,000 a vehicle for the final product. 

For automotive. Doug Ford is basically taking a page from the Trump book and saying, fine, you want to be crazy, you want to put in tariffs that have nothing to do with the trade situation. Fine. Here’s one on electricity. You have fun with that. And he indicates he’s going to keep that in place until this terrorist situation is completely put to bed. 

Whether or not I believe him, I don’t know. I’ve never had a chance to meet the guy. This is a new thing for him, but the dude, is is arguably the second most powerful person in the Canadian system because Ontario is so big relative to the rest of the country, it would be like Florida, Texas, and California all wrapped into one, with a much bigger industrial plant relative to that size. 

All right. What’s next? 

Okay. NATO. Well, no. Two in the European Union. Don’t have perfect overlap. The countries that are in the European Union that are not in NATO, like Austria and Ireland, are generally neutral, which doesn’t necessarily mean that they love the Russians or anything like that. They’ve just choosing to not shoot anyone anyway. Things are changing. The Trump administration’s basic abrogation of NATO leadership and, retreat on Ukraine, which is really the only issue that the Europeans care about right now, has forced them to do something that is honestly long overdue and, expand their defense spending. 

We did a video already on the German situation, which is its own, ball of wax. But now the European Union nonmilitary organization is getting into it, too. And, basically, they’ve got this thing called a debt break. Where you can deficit spend up to 3% of GDP. Do any more than that, you get in trouble and you start getting fined by the European Commission. 

So what they’ve done is they this is a condition for the monetary union. Otherwise they were afraid that some countries would just print currency like mad and deficit spend like mad and, wreck everybody’s plan. So limits. Anyway, in the last four days, the EU ministers met and they agreed to suspend the 3% limit. If what puts you over is defense spending. 

And the thinking is that this by itself will free up about 6 to €700 billion, which is about 630 to 750 billion USD, for unspent defense spending. And if that is all spent in the next 2 or 3 years, basically you’re looking at the European Union countries roughly increasing the collective defense spending by somewhere between 50 and 100%. 

So significant margin, is it enough for them to carry the water on Ukraine and everything else with it, the United States? No. But it’s a step in the right direction. And if you know, nothing else good comes from what’s going on right now in the world. Having the Europeans have some more capabilities on the surface seems good, but you know, there’s 27 EU members and each have their own story. 

So that is a very dangerous blanket statement to put in there. Something that I addressed in the German video that I think went out yesterday, having a hard time keeping track of time. Okay. What’s next? 

On March 7th, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced before the Polish parliament that Poland would be withdrawing from the Ottawa Treaty on the Banning of Landmines and the Dublin Treaty on the Banning of Cluster Munitions, in order to build out a defensive capacity that allows them to defend better. They’re also going to do a nationwide draft of all men of military age to prepare for the war with the Russians, because they know that they are next after the Russians are joining with Ukraine. 

And furthermore, he announced that the government is formally considering starting the exploration process to build its own independent nuclear weapons system. Because ultimately, that’s the only thing that’s going to be able to hold the line. It takes years to build up a conventional military. And while Poland has a head start, it’s not going to be able to stand up to the Russians on their own. 

Certainly nothing without United States assistance. And we should expect many, many other European countries to follow these broad guidelines, especially when it comes to nukes. With Finland and Sweden being at the top of the list, Romania probably being right there with Poland, and shortly thereafter the Germans will have no choice but to consider doing it themselves.

The Russian Reach: Playing Catch Up Part 1

AI generated image of russia and world

We’re only four days into this series and somehow it seems as though we’re weeks behind current events. So, I’m doing some rapid fire updates this weekend to bring everyone up to speed.

Even if I sat here with a dictionary, a thesaurus, and ChatGPT trying to come up with the right words to describe these last 96 hours, I’m not sure I could muster up anything better than this: HOLY S***!

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Hey everyone. Peter Zeihan here. You are about to watch a video on a series that I’ve put together called The Russian Reach, which examines the role of the Russians in manipulating the current white House as well as the US government in a broader sense. 

For anyone who signs up for my newsletter for watching any video for the remainder of the month, any sense that you would have normally given me for the next three months is going to a medical charity called Med Share. 

But your steps in to help out communities who, through no fault of their own, have temporarily lost the ability to look out for themselves. So, for example, if the Russians are bombing your power grid and the Americans are no longer providing the tactical intelligence so you can anticipate the missile strikes and position your air defense and the Americans. 

Furthermore, have stopped all financing to help you repair said power grid. In the aftermath, Medicare steps in to help hospitals with things like diesel generators. This QR code will take you directly to the Ukraine page, and that is where all of the donations will be going. 

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan, here it is early in the morning on March 8th. March 8th? We’re deep into the series on the Russian reach right now. And while it has only been, oh, my God, four days since we launched it, so much has evolved. So this video today is going to be an attempt for me to get you caught up on everything that’s gone down in the last 96 hours. 

This is Loki. He’s my copy editor. 

This week, the Trump administration sent a delegation to Kiev to speak with the opposition, which in of of itself is not all that odd. The United State maintain a bipartisan boring you. Yes. So US maintains a bipartisan foreign policy, and that’s not just a Democrat Republican thing. 

It’s an us and them thing. The idea being that you never know who is going to be across the table from you after an election. So you maintain good relations with both sides. So whenever we’re visiting another democracy, if there is time, Secretary of state or whoever tends to carve out at least a little bit of time to meet with the other side to keep everybody in the loop in an agreement, at least until this week, because the only topic that the Trump team wanted to discuss in Kiev and then even bother going to speak to the government was, how do we get rid of Zelensky specifically, how do we get early elections so that he can be gone now to God? This is a very Russian thing to do. In fact, Russia is the only country where we don’t have this sort of bipartisan approach because there is no opposition. Every democracy in the world is going to look at this and see the United States playing favorites and willing to tilt the electoral balance like they did in Germany recently. 

And it’s going to put a chill on relations with everyone for everything, unless it happens to be a one party state, in which case they’re going to take their own lessons from it. Right now, to their credit, the people who the Trump administration met with turned him down flat. They’re like, guys, we’re we’re in a war. 

We’re under martial law for good reason. And Zelensky, while he’s our political opponent, is doing a decent job. I mean, the only people who think he’s a crook are the Russians. And you. So, you know, kudos there. But this is definitely going to have reverberations for U.S. policy moving forward everywhere. All right. What’s next? 

All right. Next up is Russia. Vladimir Putin, on the 6th of March, preemptively rejected every version of every ceasefire plan currently under discussion, saying that none of them even remotely addressed Russia’s concerns. Keep in mind that the Russian goal here is not simply to destroy Ukraine, but it’s to carry on the war until it reaches a more defensible perimeter that includes all of the territory of Moldova, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and at least the eastern half of Poland, or at least the north eastern half or quarter of Romania, basically getting all the way to the Vistula River, the Danube River and the Carpathians, and probably now including Finland. 

Now, now that I think about it, the Russians will settle for nothing less than the complete demilitarization of Kiev. The extradition of Zelensky and absolutely no foreign peacekeepers on Ukraine territory at all, because they want to be able to restart the war after a cease fire once they’ve had a chance to rearm and get more equipment from China, North Korea. 

And right now, the Russians feel absolutely no compunction to negotiate on everything because the American administration is basically using Russian talking points on everything, calling Zelensky a dictator and a criminal, saying that the Europeans are the actual war party here, not the Russians who are the rapists and murderers and so on. So, yeah, good luck with those negotiations. 

Okay, What’s next? 

All right, let’s talk about what’s going on. On the ground, on the war in Ukraine. A couple days ago, the United States stopped all intelligence cooperation with Ukrainians, making it much easier for the Russians to bombard Ukrainian cities, because no longer are they getting early warnings about the attacks, they can’t position anything. It also prevents the Ukrainians from going after Russian logistics because they don’t know where they are now. 

In addition, on the sixth, the United States banned all private companies from selling any sort of recon related information, including satellite images, to the Ukrainian government. So basically, we took what was a gutting and turned it to a complete blackout. And on the seventh, the Russians claim that they have achieved a series of breakthroughs in Kursk province. 

That’s a little chunk of Russia to the northeast of Ukraine that Ukrainians have established a foothold in over, last summer and into the winter. Basically, the Russians are now able to maneuver without any problem, they’re not being seen. Or more to the point, they’re not being seen by the Ukrainians. And so the Ukrainians simply can’t move troops to where they need to be. 

So the United States has basically fully sided with the Russians here. And for the Russians to achieve some sort of breakthrough on this short time frame, you know, less than 72 hours after the original information cutoff. The Russians are slow, so there is no way that the Russians could have moved that far that fast, with that sort of achievement, without some act of collaboration on behalf of the US government. 

So it’s not that the United States is neutral in this. It’s not that the United States is siding against the Ukrainians. It’s the the United States is now actively assisting the Russians in the war. Okay. What’s next? 

Okay. Final one. In the last five days, the US government has launched a pretty significant assault on its own ability to gather and publish information. I’m not just talking here about things disappearing from online websites, although that is a big deal. But more specifically, the Trump administration has dissolved the federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee, which basically helps put together the data for things like GDP and, inflation and employment. 

They’re gutting several of the committees that work to do the work on these things. Within the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is the platinum standard for government statistics on a planetary basis, and in general, going after the Department of Labor and the Bureau of Labor Statistics as well. Noah has been. That’s the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 

Basically, whether for the federal government has basically been so pared down from staff, it can’t function. And it’s removed all of its climate data, which is making the farming community freak out because, you know, I don’t know if you knew this, but weather’s kind of important to farmers. And then in the census, they’re stripping out anything that has anything to do with, undocumented populations. 

Keep in mind that the census counts these people not because they’re citizens or because they’re going to qualify for services, but so that urban centers and states have some idea of what the population complexion is in their state so they can make educated decisions all in, it’s generally blinding the US government at all levels to the reality of the situation on the ground, making policymaking difficult. 

And just to make it a little bit worse, the Trump administration wants to rejigger how GDP is calculated so that the actions that they’re taking right now, aren’t reflected in GDP data officially. The idea is that we’re trying to pare down the federal government. And so that would make it look like we are having a recession when it’s really a one off. 

But really, this is more of an Argentina style Potemkin bullshit, where if you know, the statistics are going to be bad, you change the way that they’re generated so they don’t look nearly as bad as they really are. That’s a lot. We’re going to continue to try and keep you updated. Hopefully I won’t have to do anything this long every single week. 

But there is so much going on and there is so much breaking. As I said in the series, we’re seeing an active deconstruction of American power here, and the events of just the last 96 hours are kind of mind blowing that any of these things have happened, much less all of them.

The Russian Reach: US Cuts Ukraine Intel & Dominos Fall

A Ukrainian soldier in the trenches

The US has halted all intelligence sharing with Ukraine. If you thought the weapons cutoff was a big deal, buckle up. Since Ukraine relies on US intelligence for battlefield maneuvers, we might as well start air-dropping blindfolds to Ukraine.

You can bet your ass that Russia will happily exploit this weakening of Ukraine. However, the fallout of this move by the US is not contained to the battlefield, or even the region. Key US allies are now raising alarms over fear of intelligence leaks and potential Russian access to sensitive information. The Five Eyes alliance is on red alert over the lax handling of classified data and leadership purges under Trump.

This is an unprecedented intelligence breakdown and puts a fat ole ‘X’ on US credibility.

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here, coming from Colorado, this one is going to seem a little out of order in the series, but, events are happening very, very quickly. We’re getting overtaken by them. It’s the 5th of March while I’m recording this. 

And the United States has just ceased all intelligence sharing in cooperation with Ukraine. There’s any number of reasons why this is not in America’s interests. Not to mention, you know, all the Intel that the U.S was gathering from Ukraine. But for the Ukrainians, this is actually far more important than the weapons cutoff that is now about 96 hours old. The United States contrary to what you might have heard, has supplied Ukraine with less than one third of its, equipment in any given day of the stuff that is important from somewhere else. 

And probably 40% of the total that Ukraine uses now is produced within Ukraine itself. So while losing access to the weapons flows is bad, it’s not nearly as deadly to Ukraine as losing access to the information that allows the Ukrainians to target it. The Russians outnumber the Ukrainians in every field, and can draw upon the old Soviet era stockpiles, in addition to the Chinese and North Korean troops and equipment. 

That gives them a huge numerical advantage. So the way the Ukrainians have been staying, one step ahead is to do two things. Number one, try to turn the war into a war of movement at any given point so that numbers in any particular place can be moved and concentrated to attack Russian weak points, as opposed to staying still and letting the Russians to come to them and grind and grind and grind. 

And then, number two, know where the Russians are coming from, not just so you can maneuver, but so you can target logistics in that direction and know which rail lines, in which trucks, in which intersections and all that good stuff without American signals intelligence, satellite intelligence, a lot of that goes away. The other NATO countries do have some capacity, but, the agreements that are made with NATO were specifically designed so that the United States maintains preeminence in all of that. 

And by turning it off, the Ukrainians basically lose every advantage that they had in the fight, with the exception of the drones. And the drones require long range targeting information that came from the Intel. So they can really only be used relatively close to the front. In contrast, every advantage that the Russians have can now be pushed to its ultimate maximum because they will be encountering Ukrainians in pockets that can’t maneuver intelligently, and just overwhelming them with sheer numbers of weapons and people. 

So far from being an honest broker, far from trying negotiate peace, this is a flat out effort by the Trump administration to crush the Ukrainians on the battlefield as quickly as possible, and about the only thing that they could do that would be more horrific than this would be to actually provide information to the Russians directly. And we are now in a World war. 

I can no longer rule that out. 

Well, shit, we may already be there in the time that it took us to process the previous section of this video. We’ve had a number of America’s close security partners. Israel, Saudi Arabia, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand all publicly float through back channels that, they are considering suspending, at least selectively, intelligence, cooperation with the United States. 

The two reasons given, again, backchannels very, very spy worthy are they’re concerned that the United States is just hemorrhaging classified information, not necessarily the information per se. And the findings, the raw Intel, all of that, too, but methods of collection and integration that would basically endanger their entire Intel networks and their own national security. And of course, the second piece is whether or not the Russians are actually reading any of this as well. 

Quick backstory. So intelligence cooperation with Saudi and Israel has always been a little, tongue in cheek because, like, we’re worried that the Americans are going to leak and then something bad will happen. And the Americans, like, we’re worried that you’re going to leak and something bad is going to happen. So it’s always been a little bit of back and forth, and we only cooperate with one another on the things that are of direct interest to Israel and Saudi Arabia. 

It’s not like they’re getting the motherlode here. But their primary concern, of course, is if you’re Israel and if you are Saudi Arabia, or 3 biggest threats are Russia, Iran and Iran’s various proxy organizations throughout the region, groups like Hezbollah. And if we now have the United States compromised, there is a question as to how much American Intel and global Intel is getting into those hands, which would, of course, be a real problem for Israel and Saudi Arabia. 

The second issue, deals with the Anglo states, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and Canada. Those four combined with United States are called the Five Eyes. And it is the tightest alliance in human history, the tightest alliance in American history. And it is the only system in the world that is basically an open book for Intel sharing. 

So the United States collects the lion’s share of the Intel. But there are other things that the other allies are better at, and they all have their own regional networks. So the US collects its bevy, we go and we have a powwow with the rest of the Five Eyes. We compare notes with what they’ve collected, and then we all go back home and take the information that we’ve learned and use that to inform additional investigations using our other partners. 

And we just go back and forth and back and forth. It’s a very robust, very productive system. But the five eyes are have two concerns. Number one, the way that the Trump administration is completely gutted, the top level of our intelligence directorates, has them terrified because they are seeing things leaked out into the public sphere. That should be kept secret. 

In addition, they’re also very worried about Elon Musk’s Doge, because you’ve got people who are in their 20s with no security clearance or getting access to databases, and then just posted it on social media because it’s fun. Whether this is just rank or gross incompetence on the part of the Trump administration or the Russians are directly manifesting these things from behind the scenes, really doesn’t matter at this point, because anything that gets out, the Russians are going to pick up anyway. 

So the five eyes are seen, Russian eyes and fingers in the heart of their own national intelligence system. 

Right now, which means that the United States just isn’t a competent or a trustworthy partner to them. And so the question isn’t how will cooperation be scaled back, but how much and where? This isn’t the end of the relationship. This can probably hopefully be fixed, but we haven’t had this sort of sustained breakdown in intelligence collection and processing in the United States ever, not even with the most robust, Soviet moles, Russian moles that we’ve seen. 

Folks like Walter James. I can’t believe I have to say this, but if you are one of my followers in the intelligence community, and you are concerned that your senior leadership is either completely incompetent or has already been compromised, your options are limited for what you can do. And I’m assuming you want to do it by the book, in which case the authority that has oversight over your entire world is the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. 

That’s where you need to go. Anyone who says giving information to the oversight committee is traitorous is themselves a traitor. Because this is how the system works. This is how you do it by the book. This is the part of the legislative branch that has actual tactical oversight over everything in the world of Intel. So don’t let people bullshit you on things like that. 

And if you are one of my non intelligence industry followers and you do not have a senator who is on the select committee, leave them alone. They’re dealing with enough right now as it is.

The Russian Reach: Geography and Intelligence

Photo of a surveillance camera

Putin, like the Soviets before him, is clouded by fear of invasion due to Russia’s vulnerable geography. Understanding that makes Russia’s strategy of expansion and occupation towards defensible borders clearer.

That’s the backbone of today’s conflict in Ukraine – Russia seeking a secure and manageable perimeter. While this war was inevitable, it is no way the end of the line. Should Russia win in Ukraine, it will push into NATO countries like Poland and the Baltics to “reclaim” the natural geographic barriers once held by the Soviets.

Capturing, occupying, and controlling non-Russian populations is no easy feat, but an extensive intelligence system allows the Russians to rule through fear and disinformation. This system not only keeps these captured people suppressed, but also shapes global politics through covert influence. Tomorrow we’ll discuss how they do this on a global scale.

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Okay, let’s look at the world through the Russian eyes. The Russians are from an area that was Moscow. Used to be known as Must Troy, which is in kind of the northwestern part of the Eurasian steppe. Very cold winters, short summers, generally shitty weather. Overall. Very prone to floods and droughts. They are not particularly secure ethnicity. And what they’ve discovered is there’s really nowhere to hide. The force of northern Russia, which could serve as barriers, do work. That’s how they hit out from the Mongols for a while. But, it’s all pine forest in the upper latitudes. And so basic agriculture is almost impossible. Everywhere else is flat. 

It’s open. The rain is erratic. It’s very difficult to build the pillars of civilization. And most importantly, there’s no geographic barrier you can hunker behind. So at least one side is free. So you’re completely insecure from all sides in land that is decidedly subpar. The only way that the Russians have discovered that they can achieve any degree of security here is by conquering everyone around them, basically expanding. 

They do that. They now have their inner core, which is protected, but they have an outer core that is now occupied hostile minorities. And around that outer core, there’s again no defensible barrier. So they do it again and again and again and again and again and again and again, until they reach an area that they can block. And so they expand from tiny Muscovy away to something more akin to the territory of the Russian Federation today, or ideally, the Soviet Union. 

I say ideally, because the really good barriers that actually do limit external attack are the Baltic Sea, the Arctic Sea, the Carpathian Mountains, the Black Sea, the Caucasus, the deserts of Central Asia, and the tension mountains of Central Asia. If if the Russians can reach those zones, they shrink their outer perimeter. Give me an idea of just how extreme the differences. 

Modern day Russia, which lost a fair amount of territory and half of its population compared to the Soviet Union, actually saw its external boundaries get longer. And the right now about 5000 miles in total. If they were able to re expand to where they were during Soviet times and actually plug the access points between those various barriers, that 5000 miles would shrink to about 500 miles. 

That is ultimately what the Russians are fighting for because of the Eastern Hemisphere’s four big regions. The Russians are by far the weakest of the four. You’ve got Europe, which is densely populated. Much better climate can support much denser population patterns. You’ve got the East Asian rim, a very similar to Europe in that regard. 

And so you get the Colossus that is China in whatever form it happens to be in. And then you’ve got the areas of the Middle East which combine kind of the best parts of the Russian space with something new. You got a lot of oasis cities. You get a little pockets like Mesopotamia that can support, like European style density populations and then surrounded by Arabs. 

So what happens with political entities in the Middle East is they dominate a handful of these oasis communities or these bread baskets, and then they boil out across the deserts because they have mastered long range military, fighting. And so if they can get into the Russian space, they already have the transport technology built in. 

So the Europeans can dominate on technology and capital and military force. The Asians can beat the Russians on numbers alone. And the Middle East senators can outmaneuver the Russians. And so the Russians have been invaded 50 odd times in their history. And the only way that they know to protect themselves is to conquer everyone in their neighborhood, and then set up a really dense shell around the outer perimeter. 

The Ukraine war was always going to happen because Ukraine has two things going against it. Number one, it’s on the wrong side of that outer shell. And so the Russians see them as one of those internal ethnic groups that has to be oppressed and turned into cannon fodder. Second, the Ukrainians are up against parts of that outer shell, most notably the Arabian Gap, that is, goes into Romania and of course, the Polish gap of Poland. 

So this war was always going to happen. The Russians were always going to try to take Ukraine, and Ukraine was never going to be the end of it, because once Ukraine is subjugated, if Ukraine is subjugated, the Russians then need to push to the next line of countries, which includes Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Moldova and Romania, five of which are NATO countries. 

So this was always going to go down. 

But there’s another piece of this that is much more relevant to this overall series that we’re doing right now. And that’s how the Russians manage all of these restive occupied populations. It’s basically everyone who’s living in the Russian Federation who isn’t an ethnic Russian, is someone who’s been conquered because they were in the way or because they were perceived as a threat. 

And so the Russians basically have this mélange of occupied populations that, based on whose numbers you’re using, are somewhere between 20 and 40% of Russian citizenry. And that’s before you consider the countries that are on the outside of today’s Russian Federation boundaries, like, you know, say, the Latvians, who used to be the someone of those internal oppressed minorities but have managed to slip away. 

Ukraine, until recently was fully in that category. Now it’s a toss up. Well, the Russians can’t occupy them with their military because the military has to be at the frontier. The Russians do not have a good land. They do not have a lot of spare capital to throw around. They can’t go for the sort of fast and loose military forces that countries of the Middle East have done in the past. 

They can’t do the technocratic stuff that the Europeans have done in the past. And they no longer have the numbers to do. The human waves, endless human waves that say, the Chinese can do. So their military is spoken for. It’s there to plug the gaps. And if the gaps fail, all that’s left is partizan warfare. So in order to keep their populations from doing the partizans in the wrong direction, the Russians maintain what is arguably the world’s most advanced and penetrating internal intelligence system. 

Basically, they shoot through occupied populations with as many agents as they can possibly afford, to monitor the population, to spread disinformation, to keep the population turned against itself. And never, never, never allow them to agitate against Russian occupation in the first place. It makes Russia basically a state that is ruled by terror. And if the Russians happen to not like you for whatever reason, it means that they have this great tool, this Intel system that is great at passing unnoticed among populations, but finding the societal weak points about turning populations against one another. 

And at the end of the day, sowing information that can shape policy. And it’s very much in use today. So tomorrow we’ll talk about how the Russians see their Intel system.

A (BIG) Change in Germany

Photo of German flag in front of their parliment

Following the March 4th elections, the Germans are poised to see a significant political and military shift. The ruling Social Democrats suffered a heavy loss, and the Christian Democrats gained significant ground. These parties are now negotiating a coalition, with constitutional amendments allowing for increased deficit spending at the top of the docket.

This marks a dramatic shift for the Germans, as they’ve had decades of limited military spending (for good reason). We can thank Trump for this change, as his stance on Europe, Russia, and NATO left no real alternative for the Germans. These new plans include at least doubling defense spending and creating a massive fund for military-industrial expansion, placing German military expenditures in the 5% of GDP range.

The historic significance of this shift is not lost on me. To add insult to injury, the US government is empowering Germany’s neo-Nazis. I’m not saying that this is the end for democracy and pacifism in Germany, but there are a lot of factors at play here.

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from a crisp, Colorado morning. Today we are talking about something that went down in Germany on the 4th of March. Quick backdrop. We had elections in Germany a little over a week ago. The ruling party, the Social Democrats, they lead a three party coalition. Did very, very badly, came in third. 

And the main opposition, the Christian Democrats, did very, very well. Came in first and the next government will undoubtedly be in a coalition of those two parties, with the Social Democrats in a significantly worse position than they have been in any government to this point in the post world War two environment. But it is enough to make a majority in the Bundestag, and that’s what you need in order to form the government. 

Anyway. The two of them got together to basically hold early coalition talks. It’s only been a week since the election, and the only topic on the agenda was how to amend the constitution so that the German state can issue more government debt, do more deficit spending, specifically to build out its military. This is, this is transformational for any number of reasons. 

Let’s start with the center. Right. That’s the Christian Democrats. They’re socially conservative, economically conservative, a little stodgy, but very, very pragmatic. They don’t like issuing debt. They love the United States from defense point of view. And for them to do this is a catastrophic shift in circumstances for them. Donald Trump has basically said, that Europe is, if anything, more of a threat to the United States and the Russians, which is as backwards. 

But the Germans have no choice but to take Trump at his word. So we’re talking here about at least Dublin defense spending over the course of the next couple of years, as well as building a €500 billion fund to build out the industrial plant necessary to support it all. It is the largest expenditure of funds in, postwar German history on a single project. 

And for Christian Democrats to feel that they have to break with the United States is telling, from the social democratic point of view, they don’t have nearly as much of a problem with the deficit spending, although they’re still German and they still like to keep debt under control, but they don’t like defense spending at all. 

And that the doubling of the defense budget came from their negotiator. So you should probably think of it as a floor rather than a ceiling. So very rapidly, we’re going to see the Germans go from something like 1.2 to 1.5% of GDP, going on defense to 4 or 5% of GDP, which will easily put them above the United States by most measures. 

Now, two things here. One, from a pragmatic point of view, one from a run for the hills point of view. First, from the pragmatic point of view, the Germans have underinvested in defense spending for decades under all governments. So throwing 5% of GDP, if that does turn out to be the number at the problem helps. But they are so far in the hole they have to rebuild things from scratch. 

They have to build the industrial plant and build the educational systems to then build the stuff they need and train the people they need. This doesn’t happen at six months, and at the same time, there’s a very high likelihood that the Germans are going to be in a hot war with the Russians in the not too distant future, as the US basically abrogate all of its NATO responsibilities, withdraws all assistance from Ukraine and looking increasingly likely simply leaves NATO altogether. 

The Germans are going to have to do something that they haven’t had to do, since 1945. And let’s think about defense policy as a leader, as opposed to just doing whatever they are told. Which brings us to the run for the hills part of the situation. The Germans never are going to have a preponderance of power in any war. 

They don’t have the population to stand against all of their potential foes. And about the only bright spot in all of this is at the moment. The rest of Europe is holding together in whatever NATO or post NATO structures form as the United States exit stage left. 

But the last time that the Germans went through a rapid rearming like this, it was the transformation of Weimar Germany to Nazi Germany. And that is a historical parallel that should be lost on no one. In addition, we now have the US government actively supporting the German neo Nazi Party, which is the second largest party in Parliament. Now because of U.S actions, at a time when the Germans are redefining what it means to be a normal country and are massively building up their military in preparation for a major war. 

We have seen this movie before. There are a lot of details that still need to be worked out. I am hoping that I am worrying about nothing, and I am hoping that the last 80 years of German near pacifism and democracy has very deep roots and can’t be disrupted by anything as minor as a major war or a major shift in the geopolitical environment. 

But I know my history. And when countries are under stress like this, crazy things happen in their domestic politics. And we have seen this movie before in Germany. And it’s not just simply about the rise to the Nazi era. I was very comfortable as an American pain for smug German socialism and pacifism because, historically speaking, I know what the alternative is. 

We’re going to find out if there’s a third way here real soon.