There are two primary trends that continue from this past summer: the Ukrainians are maintaining their offensive in the Russian region of Kursk, while Russian troops are continuing their slow slog toward the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk. Kyiv has also intensified its attacks against Russia’s oil industry—particularly refineries and storage depots, and by extension its broader petrochemical industry. The Biden administration’s resistance to directly targeting Russia’s export capacity seems to have vanished along with his chances at reelection.
Outside of Ukraine, the Americans and Europeans have announced further sanctions on Russian crude exports, targeting Russia’s fleet of shadow tankers. While Chinese and especially Indian refiners have indicated that they will be abiding by sanctions…at least for now.
Closer to the front line, NATO—led by the Northern European states—has intensified naval patrols in the Baltic Sea. Sweden and Finland are new members of the alliance but old hands at stymying Russian interests within their maritime neighborhood, and have already started taking Russian and Chinese ships to task.
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