A lot of you have been worried about all of China’s investments in Latin America. I get that it might sound a little scary, but you need to put these actions into the broader context of China’s circumstances.
China is in terminal decline. Its population is aging, and its resources are dwindling. So, they’re not going to be able to sustain these LATAM investments long-term. And don’t try to bring up the Monroe Doctrine, because recent administrations haven’t been enforcing it anyway.
Places like Peru, Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina are getting a sweet deal, since this is basically a form of subsidizing future industrialization of the region. And the US is only going to benefit from that as well, since we are partners to many of these countries.
So, if China wants to spend their limited resources (and time) laying the groundwork for a brighter future in a region that the US is so closely tied to, why should we stop ’em?
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Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here comes to you from Tongariro National Park in New Zealand. This is Taranaki Falls, just about done with the circuit. I thank God my back hurts. Anyway, taking an entry from, the Patreon page specifically.
Tourists, specifically. It’s. Do I worry at all about China’s investments into Latin America? There’s a big port going into Peru.
There’s a lot of mineral extraction stuff going into Brazil. There’s a general infrastructure going to Colombia. And then, of course, purchase agreements for everything under the sun to Argentina. What do I worry about? You know, I mean, don’t get me wrong, there’s a Monroe doctrine thing here going on, but, we haven’t had a president in the last 25 years who’s really acted on it.
Certainly not, Obama or Trump or Biden. So, this is a very bipartisan kind of slouch strategically if if that’s the thing you’re concerned about. But I’m really not concerned about it. Remember that the Chinese are literally dying out. And if they want to throw some of their limited resources into the Western Hemisphere to build physical infrastructure that will help industrialize the Western Hemisphere to prepare for when China’s going to recover after China storm, I say let them, specifically the port in Peru probably isn’t going to get too much activity.
There isn’t a really good transshipment port anywhere on the west coast of South America, so having one makes sense. And here, lo and behold, the Chinese are building it for everybody. In Argentina it’s more straight up sales issue. Those things can always go somewhere else when the Chinese are no longer the high price bidder. Colombia is a mountainous country where the population.
Well, it’s unique, usually, like in Mexico, you live on the top of the plateaus to get above the tropics or anywhere else. You live at the bottom of the mountains where it’s cheaper to build. But in Colombia, because it’s right on the equator and the mountains are really steep and there’s jungle. They live on the side of the mountains.
The top is tundra, the bottom is hard jungle and everyone lives in the middle. And so infrastructure is really hard. And if the Chinese want to pay for that grid because the U.S has a free trade agreement with Colombia, and any Colombian success is one for us as well. And then finally there’s Brazil. The Chinese are spending to build infrastructure from the coast up the skirt mint where Sao Paulo is, and then down into the interior again, expensive geography to develop and the Chinese are paying for it all.
So if the Chinese want to pay for tomorrow’s world, I say let them.
