Russia’s abundance of flat, cool-temperate land doesn’t provide much in terms of defensible geography. But it is good for growing grain, particularly wheat. Russia’s place in global grain markets is also a great example of technology helping a country overcome geographic limitations. Moscow was not blessed with a country boasting an American or German level of navigable riverways, nor are its prime grain producing regions particularly close to any of its ports. 

Enter rail. 

The below graphic is an excerpt from my upcoming fourth book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Civilization. We can see that as Russia was able to install more railways, grain production and exports exploded by the mid-to-late 19th century. And the Russians have never really looked back. (Russian agricultural technology has not really advanced much since the introduction of rail cars and mechanical tractors and harvesters, but I digress…)

Now we are gearing up for the release of our newest project – The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization. The new book breaks down the future shape of various economic sectors in a post-globalized world: finance, manufacturing, agriculture.
Consider the above map. Every country that is not green or blue is a food importer. Keeping the global population alive requires global peace and global sRussia is often derided as a gas station masquerading as a country. As I have noted before, this is an oversimplification that belies the significant role Moscow plays in global agricultural markets. Russia and its wheat belt neighbors, particularly Ukraine, are significant agricultural exporters of grains and seed oils. But Russia is also leading global exporter of fertilizers and fertilizer components. Not only do Russian fertilizer exports help support agricultural production in Brazil, China, India and Europe, but they help provide necessary supply in a globalized market that is increasingly seeing farmers’ input costs rise.
 
The breaking of trade relationships, spasms in energy pricing, and most certainly the Ukraine War will limit sharply what is possible in the world of agriculture, and do so more quickly than I have ever feared. Join us March 11 for a seminar on the impact of the Ukraine War on global agriculture. We’ll dive deep into the product and input disruptions that will shape our world this year, and deep into the future.

REGISTER FOR THE UKRAINE WAR: AGRICULTURE EDITION

Can’t make it to the live webinar? No problem! All paid registrants will be sent a link to access the recording of the webinar and Q&A session, as well as a copy of presentation materials, after the live webinar concludes. 

Nowhere on earth boasts the sheer volume of cross-border hydrocarbon infrastructure as we see between Russia and its European neighbors. Or between Russia and the heart of the EU. Or between Russia and the bulk of NATO. A matter of perspective, I suppose. 

Part of it is due to geography–flat land makes pipelines easier, and you have a captive, er, consumer population with underwhelming oil and gas reserves on one side of the border, and plentiful oil and gas on the other. Japan and China, try as they might, aren’t getting directly pipeline connectivity to the Persian Gulf. 

Part of it is also strategic. 

According to one’s perspective, Russia’s economy is wrapped up too intimately with that of its customers to threaten their stability. Ditto for the primary transit states carrying the bulk of Russian energy exports into Europe: Belarus, and Ukraine. As for the other side, well–how have the Europeans fared this past winter? 

Now we are gearing up for the release of our newest project – The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization. The new The above graphic is from my upcoming fourth book – The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization. The new book breaks down the future shape of various economic sectors in a post-globalized world: finance, manufacturing, agriculture.
 
And energy.
 
Anyone following global energy trends and pricing can see that what happens in Russia’s neighborhood, does not stay in Russia’s neighborhood. Oil’s the easy part, and pricing is reactionary. But what about refinery supplies? North American and global natural gas pricing differentials? The future of the European LNG market? Asian supply premiums? The demand for new infrastructure development?
 
Join us tomorrow, March 4, for our next seminar on the fate of Russian energy, and how its foibles will shake the global economy off its foundation.

REGISTER FOR THE UKRAINE WAR: ENERGY EDITION

Can’t make it to the live webinar? No problem! All paid registrants will be sent a link to access the recording of the webinar and Q&A session, as well as a copy of presentation materials, after the live webinar concludes. 

This is a welcome and a bit of a (re-)introduction of who I am and what we do here at ZoG for the new followers and newsletter subscribers who have joined us over the past week since Russian began their invasion of Ukraine. As many of you can imagine, our services are in a bit of demand at the moment, but we’re trying to get content and explainers out as fast as possible. 

For those who are new here, the best explainers of how we view the world–and more important, what we see coming down the pipeline–can be found in my books. 

But most important, many of you have asked how to help those who are currently suffering in Ukraine. There are many aid groups doing laudable work, but one we are supporting is the Afya Foundation.

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At the beginning of the COVID pandemic, we asked our readers who were so inclined and able to consider donating toward a cause we thought was important: Feeding America.

While we still believe strongly in their mission, with recent events in Ukraine we are asking our subscribers to consider supporting a charity focused on relief efforts there. There are many good ones to choose from, but one in particular we are supporting is the Afya Foundation.

They collect money and health supplies for underserved communities in the world, and have begun delivering non-combat support to refugees and population centers in Ukraine. We hope that those who can, join us.

DONATE TO AFYA FOUNDATION

The last time wheat exports from the former Soviet space were limited, it was due to a poor Siberian harvest in 2010. Within a few months wheat prices doubled globally, tripling in the markets heavily dependent upon Russia’s low-quality output. The region most affected was North Africa and the Middle East. That instability generated the series of coups, uprisings and wars we now know as the Arab Spring. Big deal? Yes. But by global standards the damage was limited to a single region.

Compared to the smoldering torch of the Arab Spring, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will trigger a global firestorm. In my new book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization, I use my trusty tools of demography and geopolitics to peer into the post-globalized future. In part due to American disinterest, in part due to Chinese instability, and most certainly in part due to the Ukraine War, we are getting a taste of what’s to come in global agricultural markets. And we are getting it right now.

Now we are gearing up for the release of our newest project – The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization. The new book breaks down the future shape of various economic sectors in a post-globalized world: finance, manufacturing, agriculture.
Consider the above map. Every country that is not green or blue is a food importer. Keeping the global population alive requires global peace and global supply chains. In the former Soviet world, that peace and those supply chains are gone forever. I’ve long said that we will never reach a global population of 9 billion. That future deglobalization will result in the death of a billion people by starvation. The future is here. The leading edge of the famines of tomorrow begin in 2022.
 
The breaking of trade relationships, spasms in energy pricing, and most certainly the Ukraine War will limit sharply what is possible in the world of agriculture, and do so more quickly than I have ever feared. Join us March 11 for a seminar on the impact of the Ukraine War on global agriculture. We’ll dive deep into the product and input disruptions that will shape our world this year, and deep into the future.

REGISTER FOR THE UKRAINE WAR: ENERGY EDITION

Can’t make it to the live webinar? No problem! All paid registrants will be sent a link to access the recording of the webinar and Q&A session, as well as a copy of presentation materials, after the live webinar concludes. 

The ins and outs of the major oil and natural gas suppliers is a favorite topic of ours here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, and it forms a cornerstone of our expertise; my team and I have decades of combined experience on the issues facing global energy. Crack open any of my books and you’ll see that oil and gas are usually the topic of the longest chapters. 

My second book, The Absent Superpower, chronicles the many outcomes of the American shale revolution. Most notable: an America able to divorce itself from the wider world, and a major regional war in which Russia invades…Ukraine.

Now we are gearing up for the release of our newest project – The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization. The new book breaks down the future shape of various economic sectors in a post-globalized world: finance, manufacturing, agriculture.
 
Energy.
 
The rapidly-building Ukraine War obviates nothing in the new book (thankfully), but it certainly focuses the mind on the burning questions of the day. How badly will the war impact the world’s second-largest energy exporter? Which consuming markets will be most (and least) impacted? How will those markets adapt to the sudden loss of Russian exports? How long will those losses last?
 
Join us March 4 for our next seminar on the fate of Russian energy, and how its foibles will shake the global economy off its foundation.

REGISTER FOR THE UKRAINE WAR: ENERGY EDITION

Can’t make it to the live webinar? No problem! All paid registrants will be sent a link to access the recording of the webinar and Q&A session, as well as a copy of presentation materials, after the live webinar concludes.