A Faint Glimmer of Hope in the House of Representatives

The House of Representatives is looking like dysfunctional family as of late, and of course, the weird uncle stirring up the pot is the Greenpeace faction. Opposing nearly every bill that dares to exist, they’ve essentially halted all legislative proceedings.

Despite the need for aid to Ukraine, bulwark assistance for Israel and Taiwan, defense reform, entitlement reform and more, all were hearing from the House are a series of steady shrieks. However, we might be seeing some action very soon thanks to discharge petitions. A discharge petition, requiring 218 signatures, forces debates on critical issues and gives bills a fighting chance at being passed. Even if – especially if – the Speaker would rather the bill not see the light of day.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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Tourism Trends: Where Are You Spending Vacation?

Before I take the stage at the Country Music Hall of Fame here in Nashville, I figured we should talk about the future of tourism and where all the bachelorette parties are heading next.

There’s three demographic groups impacting tourism trends, and each of them is looking for something a little different. The baby boomers want specific experiences tailored to their preferences (less walking, but a bit spendy-er). The millennials are realizing kids are expensive and trips are going to have fit into tighter budgets. And the most interesting segment shaking up tourism are the blue-collar workers; they make up a large portion of the workforce and are leaning towards places like Nashville over traditional destinations.

Consumer preferences are changing, budgets are evolving, and international travel is just filled with too much uncertainty. So pack a duffel bag, ditch the passport, and go enjoy those domestic (or at least safe and stable) travel plans.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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Should We Worry About Chinese Land Purchases in the US?

I’ve had a lot of you write in concerned about Chinese land purchases in the United States. There’s not much to be concerned about here, but let me paint the full picture for you.

Foreign ownership of US land is quite limited, and the Chinese portion of that is just a sliver of the pie (Canada has the largest piece of the pie for those curious). To temper worries even further, most of this US land is being bought by Chinese individuals simply trying to park their assets outside of China…and you can’t really blame them for that. If you need even more reason not to stress, just look at the historical precedence of foreign assets being seized in times of conflict.

It’s good to ponder these questions and keep an eye on things like foreign land ownership in the US, but as of now, there’s really no need for concern.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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Europe Goes Nuclear: Is America Leaving NATO?

During a rally last week, former President Donald Trump stated that European allies that do not contribute enough to NATO (in his eyes) would not receive support if Russia were to attack them. Regardless of where you stand on this issue, we need to consider the repercussions of the US stepping away from the NATO alliance.

Trump can smell the populist/nationalist sentiment in the air and he’s going all in. While he might be on the extreme end of it right now, there’s ever-growing momentum in America taking us down that path. We’ve enjoyed decades of a largely peaceful Europe, but what happens if the Americans leave?

I would expect the Europeans to revert to their old ways, including renewed military competition and something even scarier for us Americans, nuclear proliferation. We all know how quickly places like Germany can ramp up military production.

Trump’s statements may seem wild and disconnected at the moment, but there’s more than just an election on the line here; all it would take is one country’s knee-jerk reaction to send us back to a not-so-peaceful Europe.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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Nigeria, After America

FOR MORE ON THE FUTURE OF United Kingdom, SEE DISUNITED NATIONS

PURCHASE DISUNITED NATIONS HERE

Today’s entry into our ‘Post American’ series is a country with a complex political, economic and security landscape. Its a country forged from colonialism that is comprised of diverse ethnic groups coexisting under a single political entity – Nigeria.

Despite civil unrest, Nigeria has retained a semblance of stability through a rotational presidency among ethnic groups that ensures representation and prevents disintegration. On the economic side, corruption within the oil industry has led to a mismanagement of oil resources and underproduction.

With global energy dynamics shifting and geopolitical instability on the rise, there’s an emerging opportunity for the Nigerians. If Nigeria can overcome the internal struggles, their strategic positioning and military strength could help them become a significant player in the region; this could even evolve into partnerships with Western powers seeking energy stability.

While this might sound like a reversion to colonial times, I assure you the dynamics have greatly changed. The potential for a mutually beneficial relationship could help Nigeria thrive and even reshape global energy dynamics.

Prefer to read the transcript? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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TranscripT

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan  coming to you from a very snowy Colorado. Already ten inches in and another six to go. I know what I’m doing tomorrow. Any who. This is the latest in our post-American series. And today we’re going to talk specifically about a country that a number of people have written in, and that is Nigeria. So what makes Nigeria tick?

This is a country that is a creation of the post World War two strategic order and took a few pages from the post Westphalian system of nation states. Well, in essence, what that means is it’s a little bit like the settler societies of the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand in that it’s a polyglot group, lots of different ethnic groups, each of which have a very clear homeland, but they’ve been lumped together into a single political authority.

Now, in a lot of places where some version like this happened because of colonialism, and you can make that argument for Nigeria as well. It has gone very, very badly with lots and lots of civil wars, and Nigeria is no exception. They had the Biafran war shortly after independence and sixties, and it was one of the most disastrous wars that we’ve seen on the African continent.

But in its aftermath, things went an unexpected direction. Instead of the victors trying to wipe out the biafrans. They were included into a transition into democracy. And while it’s not something that we would recognize in the United States as democratic, what they do is they they rotate the presidency among the various ethnic groups and the other regions. And then within each of those regions, there’s actually competition within the ruling party to decide who is going to be the candidate.

So as a rule, what I’m vastly oversimplifying a very messy situation here. As a rule, the presidents looked at the primary level, basically. And while this doesn’t necessarily generate the most creative or competent leadership, it has kept the peace and has kept Nigeria Nigeria in one piece as well, which is more than you can say for a lot of the other post-colonial countries in the Congo.

Here, Angola, both of which have been war wracked or chaotic or both. Now, the con of this strategy is if you are of an ethnic group that doesn’t hold the president at a time, you have to basically be paid to not protest or riot or launch a war. And that’s where the oil comes in. Nigeria is the continent’s largest oil producer, and most folks say that if civil unrest could be tamped down, a degree of competence could be injected into the system.

Well, then they could probably be producing five or 6 million barrels a day without too much of a challenge. And instead, it’s been pretty much less than three for the last 20, 30 years. Basically, whoever sits in the big chair directs where the oil funds go. He takes a cut of it himself. It’s obviously he and the rest is used to buy off the other minorities to limit their willingness to cause chaos, which of course encourages some of the more militant minded of those groups to deliberately cause chaos in order to get a better cash settlement.

And under the globalized order, this has not been a hugely successful system from an economic point of view, because it means that people actually have a vested interest in attacking the oil patrimony in order to get a slice of the oil patrimony. And that means that the oil patrimony has probably been about one third to one quarter as large as it actually should have been under normal circumstances.

But hey, that’s what happens with a political system like this. Now, that’s under the globalized order where no one interferes in other people’s affairs. You get the series of ethnic based militant groups, some with very creative names, and some of which are creative and tenacious and have taken speedboats 50 miles off the coast to take over oil production sites.

And in this sort of environment, the oil companies that bring in the technology that allow all of this to happen have basically lost interest after seeing their people kidnaped or shot up for purposes of budgetary debates. Most Western oil companies have bailed and the last, such as rolled out Shell, are in the process of getting out right now.

As I am recording this video in February of 2024. It’s not a great model, but the world is changing. And if we’re moving away from a world where civilian maritime shipping is sacrosanct and to one where piracy and state piracy and attacks on ships are far more likely, well then you have to reevaluate how Nigeria plugs into its relationship into the global energy system.

Because right now, much to the Saudi’s happiness in Nigeria is very self-limiting, just like Venezuela has been very self-limiting these last 20 years. And you can count on Nigeria never significantly increasing its oil output for any period of time, which makes them a non-factor. As far as the countries who try to actually manage the oil markets see things.

But if you break down global stability, oil’s just not going to be transported as far. And in places that have a little bit of a hotspot going them like say, the Persian Gulf or Saudi Arabia is you should expect significant reductions in output because there’s going to be a lot of militancy and state militancy, not to mention new imperial activity, either tried to take the oil offline or take the oil period.

And in that scenario, I would expect that the stuff that’s coming out of the Persian Gulf is probably going to fall by conservatively half and take most, if not all, of say, Iran’s crude with it. But Nigeria is not in that sort of situation. Nigeria is on the western side of the African continent. While it has plenty of territorial disputes with its neighbors, it’s not like it’s facing an outright war with anyone.

The countries that are to the northwest, the north and the east are either in the Sahara, so don’t have military to speak of, or in the Sahel, where the densest concentration of populations is in Nigeria. So when we had all of those coups in back in 2022 and 2023, there is a real concern slash hope based on your politics, that the Nigerian military might just move into some of these places and knock off the computers because the Nigerian military, something like three times as large as all of the French coup belt in the Sahel combined, they ended up not doing that.

But the point remains is that Nigeria is the undisputed superpower in the region, from the Sahel down to the tropics. There’s no one else that can hold a candle to them. And if there was a conflict, I have no doubt while it would be messy that the Nigerians could give a lot more than they could take. But ultimately, we’re talking about oil here in a place where the Persian Gulf has problems, in a place where Russia is treated like Russia, and a lot of that stuff goes offline.

Secondary oil producers in the Eastern Hemisphere need to get a fresh look, because if you remove a lot of these or weaken a lot of them, all of a sudden Nigeria shows up as the largest or second largest by most math. They don’t have a physical border where they are going to expect a war. Most of the piracy that’s in the region comes from.

So it is is funny. And I can see a new sort of environment where the Brits and the French are actively looking for partnerships in the Gulf of Guinea region where Nigeria is in order to secure crude that they can’t get from places like the North Sea or the Russians any longer. It’s not that the North Sea is going away.

So this is all going to be spoken for. And so if you’re in that growth, you’re going to have to find another source. The United States can help with some of that. But Nigeria is the only thing that’s proximate, really. You’ve got Algeria to the north, but a lot of their fields are very, very, very tapped. And they’ve been in diminishing returns for the last 20 years.

Nigeria is really the only place where you can work in Greenfield or Brownfield. So I expect we’re going to see a significant reversing of this trend of the Western super majors getting out of Nigeria, because there’s not going to be a lot of choice other or maybe tertiary energy producers in the area. You’re Angola’s you’re Gabon’s. You’re Equatorial Guinea’s.

They’re going to get a fresh look to for very similar reasons. But make no mistake, Nigeria is the security decider in this region. And if they don’t want these secondary powers, especially ones that are closer to them to play a significant role in regional oil markets, then it’s going to be really hard to make that happen. And this is not a colonial experience.

Nigeria may be decades behind, say, Britain when it comes to military firepower, but it’s not like Nigeria is UN industrialized. So you’re not going to see the sort of neo colonial relationships that a lot of people fear where the former colonies come in and take over. No, no, no, no. The population in balance is not there. The technological imbalance is not there.

Instead, it’s going to be a degree of partnership and one that, while it can be messy, is probably going to work pretty well because the French and the Brits have the technology in the markets and the Nigerians have the asset and the guns. So it’s a partnership that can actually be quite productive. The question is of the outside powers who will get there first.

And I’m telling you, it’s going to be the French and the Brits, and they’re not necessarily going to agree on where that crude has to go. So the geopolitics of this region is going to start to look a lot like it did a century in a century a half ago, but with a lot more money and with the Nigerians being a player in of them themselves.

All right. That’s it for me.

The United Kingdom, After America

FOR MORE ON THE FUTURE OF United Kingdom, SEE DISUNITED NATIONS

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For those with daddy issues, today’s installment in the ‘Post American’ series might be a bit triggering. If you’re still reading, we’ll be looking at the UK’s economic and security dilemmas as the global order falls.

The UK never quite came to terms with the end of its empire. Once the Brits joined the EU, they latched onto Europe for everything they needed and skipped over the transition that all the other imperial powers went through. So, they were already outdated, but had a crutch to rely on; then Brexit hit and it left the UK stumbling and fumbling.

With the UK’s future up in the air, there’s really only two paths forward. First, they could seek out new trade deals globally, but they’ll have to find some new non-imperialistic tactics to do so. Second, they could swallow their pride and nestle up under the Americans’ wings.

The UK will likely choose to align with the US, even if it means sacrificing some autonomy. The British mindset will be to push against this whole-heartedly, but it’s the most pragmatic way forward for our friends across the pond.

Prefer to read the transcript? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
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TranscripT

Hey everyone. Peter Zeihan here comes to you from Saint John’s Cathedral in Detroit, which is also a resort because modern Catholicism. Anyway, I thought it would be a great backdrop to talk about the United Kingdom in our Post America series. The United Kingdom is one of those countries that is not really going to emerge into a post-American world because they’ve got some really interesting decisions to make.

I’m pretty sure I know how it’s going to go. So backdrop, two things. First, economy, the British system never really adapted to the end of empire. They do all the big high value added stuff and they import a lot of the raw materials and some of their base manufactured goods, things that are not very good at because they’re good at the really high precision stuff.

And when the empire ended and they joined Europe, all they did was kind of switch one empire for another and relied upon the European continent for things like foodstuffs and wood products and automotive. They never made the transition that all the other former imperial powers did. And so when Brexit happened, they find themselves in a bit of a lurch.

So that was kind of the economic side of things, on the security side of things. They are an island and islands are worried about one thing, other countries developing navies that might allow an invasion. So they’ve always looked at the major powers of the Eurasian landmass with more than just suspicion, outright fear and concern, whether it’s Nazi Germany or Soviet Russia or whatever.

Napoleon. And on and on. But that doesn’t mean that they like nonmilitary superpowers. So when folks in the European Union start talking about ever closer union and maybe having a common defense identity, they get a little squeamish and they want to keep things within NATO where they’ve got veto power. So that’s the economic that’s the security you play that for to where we are right now.

And they’re in a bit of a pickle. Demographically, the European Union is on its final legs. Most of the major powers, especially Germany and Italy, are going to be aging into obsolescence within a decade. And most of the remaining countries within two. And I don’t mean to suggest that the UK has a super healthy demography, but it is like the second healthiest within the Union.

So when the Brits started talking about Brexit a decade ago, it was like, okay, I can understand the conversation. Getting a jump on what’s next, leaving the sinking ship that is the economic aspect of the European Union. That makes some sense. But here we are seven years after Brexit and the Brits are still trying to figure out what Brexit means.

We still don’t have a meaningful policy for how they should go into the new world, and they really only have two choices. Option one since they haven’t done that economic change post-imperial era is to find a new empire and go out and cut a series of deals with a series of countries that have young demographics that could provide them with raw materials and on and on and on.

The problem is they can’t do it like they did before, before the secret of the British Empire. The reason that they ruled the world for the better part of two centuries is they were in the early days of the industrial era and no one else had caught up. So they were able to use the order of magnitude, greater economic intensity of early industrialization and the three orders of magnitude of better power projection of military technologies to dominate wherever they went with a very small number of people.

Well, that’s not the world we’re in anymore. You can’t go into a place like India with 50,000 people and conquer it like you could two or three centuries ago. Well, not to mention that the Indians wouldn’t let that happen. So the idea that the Brits is a mid-sized power can be the center of a global trade node. That’s a bit of a stretch.

I don’t want to say it’s impossible because weirder things have happened in the last few years, but it’s difficult to see enough countries signing on to the idea of British preeminence when the Brits can’t force the issue. The second issue is to partner with a single power large, wealthy country that has better demographic structures and shares the United Kingdom’s overall security concerns about united Eurasia as a military power.

And the only country that scratches that itch is the United States. Now, it’s not like what the Brexiteers said, that they can just waltz into Washington and ask for a free trade deal that is better than the wake up from the EU. No, no, no, no. When it comes to trade deals, the United States is very specific and it doesn’t like to bring in systems that could compete with in any meaningful way.

And that would mean that the Brits have to accede to American demands on any number of sectors, from agriculture to finance to manufacturing. Hell, we might even make them get rid of the metric system before in a bad mood. Now, when the Johnson administration in Britain came over to talk to Donald Trump’s administration about a trade deal and they found out what the conditions would be, they walked away and then the next government came in and did the same thing.

And walked away. Or was it Theresa may anyway? There were two back to back. And so the Brits right now are in this nether world where they kind of quietly admit to themselves that in order to find a future that has some degree of economic functionality, they have to get into bed with their kids and accept all the demands and the hit to their economy will be real and the hit to their ego will be massive.

But the alternative trying to build an alternative system or maybe going back to the EU. Neither of those are long term solutions that are very functional. So really what we’re doing is going through the paces until the Brits admit the obvious. And when that happens, Britain will lose the thing that it values the most its freedom to act, its agency.

It will become a subsidiary of the Americans system, for better or for worse. And while that will be horrible for the British mindset, it is the best game in town for both an economic and a security point of view. And in time, I have no doubt that that is where the Brits will end up. So stiff upper lip.

The Biden Administration Blocks LNG Exports (Sorta)

A liquefied natural gas ship

The Greens are celebrating and the oil industry is kicking and screaming over the Biden administration’s decision to pause the review process of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. However, this decision’s actual impact is microscopic. This pause is very limited. It has no impact upon facilities already in operation, under construction, or even those already permitted. It only impacts facilities still at the eye-gleam stage. While the “pause” may impact some firms (very) long-term plans, there’s nothing tangible as of yet.

Natural gas has an interesting foothold in the energy space, as it is a cleaner alternative to coal and is highly compatible with green energy sources like wind and solar. This means that natural gas will likely serve as the complimentary energy source of the future, which will be a large pill for the Greens to swallow.

The Biden administration’s move is temporary, limited in impact and scope, and is just a political move to garner support leading up to the election. Think of this kind of like a politician’s wet dream – making some of your constituents happy without actually doing anything.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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Putin’s Puppet Show feat. Tucker “The Propagandist” Carlson

At this point you’ve all seen or heard about Tucker Carlson’s interview with Putin (if you haven’t…you didn’t miss much). This was the first time Putin has spoken to an American “journalist” since his military invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

As we enter the third year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I think this is as good a time as ever to step back and take inventory of the situation. Since the beginning, we have known that the longer the war drags on, the harder it will be for Ukraine to mount a definitive counter-offensive. One reason for this has to do with differences in command structures; Russia follows a strict top-down delegation of authority, while Ukraine delegates relatively more local authority to lower-level officers.

While this strategy has paid off for Ukraine so far, the Russian military apparatus is slowly learning to adapt. To compete, Ukraine will need to take a chapter out of the Russian military school of thought and assert a more dominant command structure, one that allows for military-wide policy implementation.

Apart from strategy, Ukraine also needs more and better weaponry from its western allies. This will only get harder as time goes on. Putin knows this, and perhaps that is why he chose this moment, as Congress struggles to pass a military aid package for Ukraine and Israel, to stir the pot. Add to the mix the fact that this is an election year…

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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North Capital Forum: Crazy Little Thing Called Geopolitics

In October of 2023, I sat down with Enrique Perret, Managing Director of the U.S.-Mexico Foundation (USMF) & President and Founder, North Capital Forum (NCF). We discussed the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead for North America.

Through a geopolitical lens, we examine North America’s strategic positioning in the evolving global landscape, with a keen eye towards energy and tech. We’ll also discuss the current economic and political situations to help inform key stakeholders and decision makers in this region.

If you’d like to learn more about the U.S. – Mexico Foundation or their North Capital Forum, I encourage you to click the link below…

MORE ON THE US-MEXICO FOUNDATION

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

Poland, After America

FOR MORE ON THE FUTURE OF POLAND, SEE DISUNITED NATIONS

PURCHASE DISUNITED NATIONS HERE

This next country might surprise some of you, but deglobalization might give Poland its moment of fame. That’s if they play their cards right, and even then, it will be a fleeting moment, but a moment in the spotlight nonetheless.

Historically, Poland’s been vulnerable to major powers like Russia and Germany, so they’ve developed quite the arsenal for defense. Now, a window of opportunity might open as Germany and Russia face economic and demographic decline.

The time is coming for some strategic decisions to be made. Will a conflict between Russia and Poland unfold, or will Poland buddy up with Sweden? Either way, Poland’s surge to the spotlight will be short-lived but gripping.

Prefer to read the transcript? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

TranscripT

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from the Eagle Nest Wilderness in central Colorado on top of Eccles Peak with a buffalo pass there below and behind me. Today, we’re going to go back into that post American series I’ve been doing every once in a while and specifically talking about one of the hot spots. And that will be Poland.

Now, Poland is one of those countries that we don’t think of very often as a major power because it has been so badly treated throughout history. It’s got major powers around it, specifically Sweden, Russia and Germany, and it tends to get gobbled up by them very easily. It’s coastline isn’t great and so the Swedes have always been able to protect upon them.

And then its land borders with both the Germans and the Russians are wide open. So there’s no chance of doing any sort of static defense. As such, the Polish military in modern times is heavy on air power with extended range fuel tanks, so that while they might not be able to stop a Russian invasion, they can reach Moscow and bomb it and at least make the Russians think twice.

That’s kind of the national strategy here. And then, of course, they’re never sure if they can rely upon the Germans, because every time the Germans have gone on the warpath, Poland is usually one of the first couple of stops. Things are going to change over the course of the next 20 years for a number of reasons. But really the biggest chunk is economics and demography.

The Germans and the Russians have two of the worst demographics structures on the planet. And while Sweden is an up and coming power again and it can definitely punch above its weight, this is not the 1600s. And Sweden today has under 10 million people. So even if it punches like triple its weight, Poland still has 40 million people.

Also, the Swedes these days are not looking to expand into empire. So, you know, there’s that anyway. What this means is that we’re seeing an opening window of opportunity for Poland as the German system fails because of demographic decline and economic collapse. Remember, this is a country that exports everything. So anything happens to globalization, they’re done. Also, they can’t maintain their workforce for more than another ten years.

Russia is only slightly behind that in terms of demographic decline. In fact, once you look at the health figures, it’s probably worse. Everyone in Germany at least is in decent health. You’ve got a lot of alcoholism and a lot of HIV and a lot of tuberculosis in Russia. You don’t have any of those in Poland, which means that for the Russians, things are going to go one of two directions.

Either number one, they’re going to win hand over fist in Ukraine, and then they’re going to come for Poland. And we’re going to have a knockdown, drag out fight at some point over the next 20 years, the Russian wave will crest and then it will fall back because they won’t be able to maintain their military structures. And we’ll have the poles being more and more and more aggressive, assuming they don’t fall completely and pushing into the former Russian space in order to break it up so nothing like that can ever happen again.

For those of you who don’t think that that can happen, it’s happened before. The Russians call it the time of troubles and that brings us to the second possibility that in Ukraine, that this is all that the Russians can do and this war will break them in the next few years. And then the Poles will push more and more aggressively into the Russian space to make sure that nothing like that ever happens again.

Remember, in the 1600s, 16 04i believe the Poles actually occupied Moscow and held it for a generation. Only this time the Russians would be in economic and demographic decline, if not outright collapse. So it might actually last a little bit longer. Now, for those of you who are Polish, don’t do too much chest beating. And a lot of things have to happen.

Poland, like Romania, really only does well when the country’s on its edges are weak. The problem you have in Poland is it’s just big enough to think that it can pull this off by itself, whereas the Romanians know that they have to partner with somebody. Now there are two paths for the Poles to take. Option number one is economic collapse and statist economy, followed by a military expansion.

That’s probably the most likely outcome. Remember that Poland, today’s economically wealthy because of its relationship with German manufacturing. If that goes away, option number two is the sweet step and become the new partner, both demographically, economically, strategically. And you get Polish land power with Swedish amphibious power. And that can be a very potent combination in the Baltic, sharing a lot of common values and maybe even having a vector of American assistance in their boats.

Kind of a the playbook, as I see it right now. And finally, before polls get too excited, keep in mind that Polish demographics are not all that much better than Russian or German. I mean, they’re better, but they’re aging just as fast, just from a younger base. So if we’re looking at an end to the German and the Russian systems over the next ten to 20 to 30 years, we’re also looking at a complete fabrication of the Polish system over the next 20 to 50 years.

So there’s going to be a window here where Poland becomes the most powerful land power in the region, and it is a moment in time. And what the Poles decide to do with that is going to reshape this region for at least the next century. All right, you guys later.