The Senior Home Showdown: Delusional Biden vs. Demented Trump

If you watched the presidential debate last week, I’m sure you’re really, really excited for the election this year! Since so many of you wanted me to talk about this fever dream we’re living in, I figured we’d do it on Independence Day.

For those that didn’t catch the debate, you can just head to your local retirement home and get the same experience from a couple of relics living there. The gist is that neither of these candidates are fit for office and a vote for either of them is a threat to national stability. Great Grandpa Biden – I mean President Biden – revealed how much his cognitive abilities have declined, slipping deeper into his deluded state. Trump was off in his demented-fairyland-state where lies are currency and angry tantrums are the status-quo.

At the end of the day, not much has changed since my first prediction.

Winner of the 2024 presidential election is...

The “true” independents will play a critical role in deciding the outcome of this election. Biden still has the upper hand, but Trump isn’t going down without a fight – and his cult followers will be sure of that. There is an opportunity for Biden to step down and have a more qualified candidate step up at an open convention, as long as its not someone like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. And let’s be realistic, no other Republican candidates can challenge Trump’s grip on the party.

So, in all likelihood we’re looking at a 2020 rematch, with candidates who are four years older, less capable, and more embarrassing than before. Would someone be able to pinch me?

Prefer to read the transcript? Click here

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And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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Transcript

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from the lost wilderness in Colorado. I’m just outside of Devil’s Playground. 

I was backpacking in New Mexico last week when the presidential debate happened on purpose. Because I didn’t want to watch it live. Because I still have a hangover from one four years ago. anyway, I’ve since watched it, and I have. 

How should I put this? Received a river of requests, for an update. And what this means to my forecast for the election. Some of you have been really, really rude about it, and you guys can stuff it. But for everybody else, Joe Biden obviously did not have a good day. he appeared confused, a little lost. 

It wasn’t clear that he knew exactly where he was. And a lot of his responses, especially in the early half of the, debate, were just almost nonsensical. The term for what is happening to Joe Biden is that his mind is diluting. He’s losing control of the contact between the context of his memories and his life and the reality about him. 

And this makes him slow and confused. And for anyone who has been watching him for the last year, you’ll notice that this is not a new thing. This has been happened with greater rapidity. 

it’s been happening in press conferences and the Oval Office and briefings. it’s it’s getting bad. 

now, I’m sure there are a lot of us out there who have parents or grandparents who are diluting, and it’s painful and it’s awkward, and eventually you get forgot. And it’s there are good days and there are bad days, but that’s not what you need for a president, because as you get older and Joe Biden is already 81, the number of bad days eventually tends to overwhelm the number of good days. 

And he is no longer fit for office. He shouldn’t be running for president. He shouldn’t be president. And a vote for him is a vote against national stability in the United States. Let’s talk about the other guy now in the debate. I’d argue that 75 to 80% of everything that came out of Donald Trump’s mouth was boldfaced lies. 

Most of those lies have been proven wrong in court on multiple occasions. he did have a few new ones that he brought out. Most of those were from Vidic River. if you remember, back to the Republican primaries earlier this year. Romsami, he was clearly the candidate who was most detached from reality. 

The term for what’s going on with Donald Trump is that his mind is demented. he’s very sure of where he is because he just made it up. he lives in a bubble of his own mental creation. And when you’re like that and somebody pokes into your bubble, you get very, very, very angry. this is something we’ve seen out of Donald Trump for some time, but it’s really accelerated since he lost the presidential reelection me, three years ago.And he definitely doubled and tripled down on that in the debate. We all know someone who’s going through this either themselves or caring for them. caring for somebody with dementia is awful because you get yelled at a lot and it’s difficult to reconcile, you know, a loved one’s broken view of the world with who they used to be. 

There are good days and there are bad days. But I think we all agree that as you get older and Donald Trump is now 79, significantly older than Hillary Clinton was when he said that she was too old to run for president. As you get older, eventually the bad days outnumber the good days, and Donald Trump is no longer fit to be president. 

And a vote for him is a vote against national stability in the United States. And these are our choices. And so in the next part, I’m going to tell you how this is going to go. But we’ll do that from a different vista. 

So where does this take us? I see two paths forward. The first is the path I identified a year and a half ago now. And we will include a link to that original video, in this one and in the written supporting materials. all of the things that I pointed out at that point still remain true. 

I will pull out one that is even more relevant now, and that’s independents. Now, when I say independents, I’m not talking about the roughly 30 to 40% of Americans who are not registered as a Republican or a Democrat. No, no, no. of that 30 to 40%, almost all of them, vote with one party or the other 90% of the time. 

They’re not independents. I’m talking about the true vote splitters, the 10% in the middle that have decided every American election in modern history. they don’t like either candidate. I’m one of those independents. Makes me a little sick to my stomach myself. Biden may have gotten a decent start, but he’s clearly not there anymore. He may have an okay team, but that’s not enough. 

you need the person at the top. Top to be capable and conscious and cognizant. That’s not Biden anymore. however, on the other side, we have Donald Trump, who, part of his dementia is that his insistence that he the election was stolen from him, despite the fact that members of his own administration who were in charge of election integrity, say that it was the cleanest election ever. 

his particular dementia threatens independence because he’s telling people that the general election doesn’t matter and everything should be decided in primaries where he does well. And of course, he does well in primaries, because the MAGA crowd will do whatever he says and they will show up in force to the primaries even when he’s not campaigning for them. 

His ability to sweep the primaries without lifting a finger this time around, that was actually really impressive. But if you’re an independent, it means that your vote goes away. so it’s a choice between someone who’s deluded or someone who’s 

Dementia will destroy your ability to vote from the future. And, you know, that’s a no contest. also, never forget that there are more Democrats than Republicans. 

So Joe Biden does not need to capture the independent vote to win if the independents just don’t show up because they’re disgusted with both, that’s a victory for Biden. And so my general assessment that this is Biden’s election, no matter what happens, as long as he remains alive, stands a little sick to my stomach. This is an ugly choice, but it’s not a particularly difficult one. 

There is one other way that this could go. friends and families and colleagues of Joe Biden are now advising that he consider stepping down and let a more capable candidate, run, which I think would be a great idea. Now, there’ve been people on both sides, maintain the Democrats and old school Republicans, people who are Republicans. 

Before Trump took over the party, who insist that if either side were able to float a better candidate, that they would just sweep because these two candidates are so broken and I understand where they’re coming from. The problem is the process of getting to that. the primaries are functionally over. and on the Democratic side, it’s very weird for you get to get a meaningful challenger, for the nomination. 

when you have somebody who’s already in office and that this is no exception. the difference this time around is that Biden might willingly step down. And if he does that, we will have what’s called an open convention. But that is not a slam dunk. and for this, I blame Barack Obama. one of the reasons why I think Barack Obama will go down in history is one of the bottom 10% of presidents we’ve ever had. 

One of the many reasons is he functionally destroyed the Democratic Party’s ability to generate talent. when he ran for president, he formed his own organization and ran in parallel. And then when he got enough momentum, he basically co-opted the Democratic Party institution for his own purposes, something similar to what, Donald Trump did. in doing so, he made it all about him. 

And then for the next eight years, he sucked all the oxygen out of the room and prevented a new generation of political leaders from rising up within the party. And so that’s why we have folks like Schumer and Pelosi who are almost as old as Biden, who are the powerbrokers in Congress. And a new generation is really having a hard time getting going now. 

they’ve started, but it’s probably too late, certainly too late for the cycle. And that means that the only people who are willing to run for president in the primary system are those ideological idiots like, Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, who can draw national support and kind of like Trump with MAGA, get people to show up in numbers to the primaries, even if people would normally not consider themselves Democrats. 

if you have an open convention, those ideological idiots will be there. But the advantage of an open convention is you might get normal politicians, God forbid, there. So I have always been a fan in the American political system of the governors, because they have to deal with day in, day out issues and actually make the trains run on time and they have to govern across the aisle. 

And we haven’t had a meaningful governor run on the Democratic side for a bit. And on the Republican side, it’s just been overwhelmed, by Donald Trump 

So for an open convention, we might actually because it’s just going to be for like a few weeks instead of this endless campaigning system that we seem to have normally, a governor could throw his or her hat in the ring, not have to deal with all the shit of all the ideological wars, and actually get a good candidate. 

And that is a way that the Democrats could have a complete blowout of the system of the election. It is possible, but it’s also possible you could get Elizabeth Warren, who was like one of three people on this planet that Donald Trump could beat. This can’t happen on the Republican side. Donald Trump has destroyed the Republican Party. He’s purged of anyone who was against him. 

And the real, breakpoint was back in March when he took over the Republican National Committee. And the first thing he did was purge anyone who had anything to do with polling or candidate selection or basically fact gathering. Anyone who had any experience in politics, and basically replaced them all with his flunkies. So Trump, even if he dies tomorrow, will probably still be the Republican nominee this round. 

His grip on what’s left of the Republican Party is that firm. 

Okay. That’s it for me today. I hope you enjoyed today’s episode of delusion versus Dementia and its After Effects. as always, with all of my domestic political, videos, I invite you to send outraged messages to the collection email spot, which is [email protected] that’s [email protected]. And I promise I will put personally review and respond to each and every None of them. Until next time. 

Joe Biden: Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America (source: Joe Biden); User:TDKR Chicago 101 (clipping)Donald Trump: Shealah Craighead (source: White House)Сombination: krassotkin, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Strong American Growth (and Something to Worry About)

If you don’t want to start your day with beautiful beach views and economic forecasts, you may want to skip the video. Today we’ll be discussing recent changes to the US economy and what future impacts might look like.

Trump and Biden boosted the economy with massive stimulus packages post-COVID, but things are beginning to settle down. There’s some minor issues starting to pop up, like a rise in loan delinquencies and higher interest rates, but the US economy still looks strong overall.

The bigger concern revolves around government spending surpassing private sector growth for the first time ever. This indicates a potential shift toward government-driven economic growth, that could undermine long-term dynamism and efficiency in the US economy.

This isn’t something that will happen overnight, but if left unaddressed, the US could face significant economic challenges down the road.

Prefer to read the transcript? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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Transcript

Hey everybody, Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Monarch Bay in Southern California. today we’re going to do kind of a big picture economic take of the United States. because, you know, a lot has gone down in the last 25 years. I think it’s good for me to kind of put my stamp on the ground and where we are. 

we might be getting back to some version of normal. It is a bunch of light here. Let me kind of spell that out from the back side. If you remember back to the transition from the Trump administration to the Biden administration, there was a contest among the two of them about who Americans would like more because they had been paid to, like. 

the incoming Biden administration had made it very clear that the first thing he was going to do was $1 trillion stimulus that would put money in people’s hands, to get over Covid. And as soon as Trump heard about this, he’s like, well, I want to do that too. So I want to be like an administration to leave on a high point. 

things, but work out that way. But he did put, I think it was $900 billion into the system in his final few weeks. and if you remember back, Covid was pretty much over by then. So we had $2 trillion dumped in and a quarter, into a system that was already experiencing rapid economic growth as one of the many reasons why we had an inflation pulse in the early Biden administration. 

Anyway, you combine that with all the stimulus that was still rolling around in the system from the Covid crisis, and Americans conservatively entered the Biden administration with over $2 trillion in savings that they hadn’t had before, according to the San Francisco Fed. They didn’t finish burning through that extra capital until the first quarter of 2024. which means we’re only now finding the ability to like, oh, look at that. 

A third of the economy with a more normal supply and demand dynamic. And at the moment, things look pretty good. yes. Loan delinquencies are rising, but we are pretty close to record lows still, nor nowhere near the average, or certainly nowhere near the numbers that we had back in the last technical recession in 2007. interest rates are higher, but delinquency rates are far lower than they were at the period before we entered any other recession. 

So I’m not saying that this is like we’re going to grow forever or anything like that, but at the moment the mechanicals look pretty positive, and I wouldn’t expect the United States to enter into recession. This calendar year. And some things would have to get a lot worse for us to consider a recession in next calendar year. At the current moment. 

if there is a concern, it’s more the structural because, it has to do with the balance between private credit and government spending. Now, normally, private credit rises and falls based on the job conditions. And if it rises too fast, you get a bubble, which leads to a correction. the last, of course, big instance. And we had that was the subprime building from 2000 to 2007, where we roughly doubled total private credit in seven and a half years. 

And as a result, we had the Great Recession, which was no fun for anyone. nothing like that is in the books this time. private credit has been growing for the last 15 years. It’s something much more along the lines of the century average. normally, private credit only drops or goes negative in times of recession because banks and stock holders generally restrict their play of capital on the system at a time when everything is over leveraged. 

we’re not seeing that today. Instead, what we’re seeing is more government activity. Normally, the balance between these two factors is private credit is in the driver’s seat, except in times of recession, which is when the government steps in. And if you add the two together, you get actually a pretty even. Why? What has changed in calendar year 2023 is that relationship broker. 

And for the first time in modern American history, total new government spending, not just the deficit, but the increase in the deficit year on year, that number surpassed the total increase in private spending for the first time in American history outside of a recession. Now, this is only one data point. I don’t want to overplay this, but for the first time in American history, the government has become the primary driver of economic growth in the country. 

This is not a healthy position to be in. This is a very Zimbabwe, South African, Venezuelan sort of approach to economic management. Now there’s still trillions of dollars of private investment. There’s still tens of trillions of dollars of private economic activity. this is not something I’m overly stressing about right now. But if the numbers from last year repeated this year and based on the Biden administration spending, it looks like they will be. 

And then next year, which Biden has indicated they probably will be, or if Trump wins. Absolutely. And if they do these plans to expand the government, then we’re in a different era of it. And if you remove the private sector as the primary driver of American economic growth, yes, you might get a little bit more populous support for the government or a particular candidate, but it comes at the cost of long term dynamism and size of the American economy, which has served the United States very well these last 200 years. 

Now, the degree of populism was always going to be in the cards, not just because of the politics, but because of our demographics. The baby boomers, the largest generation ever. There pass halfway through retirement. They’re going to be sucking at the government teat for Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security until the day they die. So government outlays have to go up, which means deficit spending has to go up. 

And there is no, appetite on either side of the American political aisle to do anything about that, because it’s not a vote winner. and if this sticks, we will have a problem down the line. This is a much bigger problem than the federal deficit, because this changes the complexion of the American economy and how we can adapt to shifts in the future, because the government just isn’t nearly as efficient. 

It can be quick, but it’s not efficient. And ultimately, the efficient use of capital is half of the American story. So you’re looking for something to worry about? I’d worry about that. But in the meantime, government spending is stimulatory. And that suggests that for this calendar year and next, we’re not looking at a recession. So, you know, take your good news where you can. 

Can Former President Trump ‘Make Felonies Great Again’?

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Peter Zeihan’s Risk List: What Keeps a Geopolitical Strategist Up at Night

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Well, we’ve all heard the news at this point. Trump is a FELON, after being convicted on 34 counts of financial fraud related to hiding his affair. So, can Trump spin this “publicity” in a positive light or will it bite him in the ass come November?

The case was fairly straightforward, given the clear evidence and testimonials, but we’ll have to wait until July 11 for Trump’s sentencing. I wouldn’t expect him to see any jail time; however, the potential for probation and a (likely) dragged out appeals process could have significant impacts on his campaign schedule.

The real question is how does this effect Trumps shot at the presidency? It was already going to be a long shot for Trump, so this conviction and the fallout it carries might be the kiss of death. All Biden has to do now is just keep breathing.

Prefer to read the transcript? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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Transcript

Hey everyone Peter Zeihan here. I am, on my way to Milan to fly home, and you guys just couldn’t wait for me to get home and get sucked me back into politics. Okay, so when I woke up this morning about the. Donald Trump has been convicted in New York for eight of 34 counts of laundry and financial fraud. 

for hiding a, a theater, attempting to hide an affair that he had with the porn star Stormy Daniels. the way it works is …., 34 felonies, felony. Because if you engage in fraud and attempt to hide a crime, it automatically elevated class and felony. so let’s do a quick Q&A. what are the state things here? 

And then talk about where this leads. does this mean that Donald Trump no longer run for president? no, it does not. there’s nothing in the Constitution that says but, there are who can run for president. although, funny thing, you can’t vote. but you can still run for president. number two, what’s next? 

on July 11th, we get our sentencing hearing, and it is unlikely that Trump will go to jail. This was a nonviolent crime, and he’s a first time felon. Feels weird to say that. so we’re looking at probably some form of probation. Now, probation comes with restrictions. And as we’ve seen in the trial, with all of the charges of contempt of court and, gag order, is the chances of Trump following those restrictions are going to be interesting, especially in terms of campaign setting. 

number three, what about appeals? Appeals will happen. Absolutely. But it’s unlikely that we will see the appeals process completed. But before we have the presidential election, the big difference this time we’re worried about his scheduling, because when he hasn’t been convicted of anything yet, the court was believed to create in the degree of deference when it came to scheduling, now that he’s been convicted of 34 felonies. 

So there’s going to be very different. So, you know, things like the debates, things like rallies, those could actually be impacted pretty severely by whatever the appeals schedule is. A Trump will, of course, have a vested interest in dragging that to other possible. But even if he didn’t do that, certainly, I could be resolved before we get to the first week of November and have the general election. 

And then finally, there’s the question of whether or not this is a fair ruling or not. okay, so I’m in Italy right now, and a lot of these conversations have come up. And, you know, the Italians have some experience with politicians who dabble in corruption, politicians who dabble in ideals, and politicians who combine the two. And the general ditch here, which was really funny, is like, if you’re going to do things like this, you have to have an accountant to hide everything well and a fixer to make sure that the news doesn’t get out.   

In the case of Donald Trump, those two things were the same person. So like, oh, that’s not very smart. And then second, they’re like, and you get to keep these two people as close to you as possible because they’re the ones who know where the bodies are. They’re the people who have the receipts. And the reason why this court case was sewed up so quickly, and why did the jury only need a couple of days to debate? 

34 different counts, and why they came back with a unanimous verdict so quickly? Is that the fixer in the accountant and all of their documentation flipped and were testifying for the prosecution. So the only other outstanding bit of information to make this an easy case was the court star herself, who also could show for the play. Yeah, the that’s into her bank account matched with the debits from Trump’s account. 

So it really was from the accounting point of view, a very open and shut case, of the hospital you can think about for this matter. It’s big impact will have on the election. And, this is just amusing from my point of view, because as soon as the verdict came in in Trump campaign headquarters, cheers erupted. I feel like we can totally fundraise off of this. 

And then Biden election headquarters cheers erupted. Totally fund both of us. everyone seems to have forgotten the abuse of the 10% of the electorate, were independents, were just kind of nauseated by the whole thing. And the independents have decided every presidential election since the early 1960s. And they are not going to vote for somebody who now has 34 felonies under his belt. 

So as far as I’m concerned, this verdict has decided the election or other reasons to think that Trump was already in trouble. But this is really makes it impossible for him to win. 

assuming, of course, that Biden doesn’t die, I’d have never. 

The Biden Admin Liquidates Northeast Gas Reserves

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Peter Zeihan’s Risk List: What Keeps a Geopolitical Strategist Up at Night

Please join Peter Zeihan for a webinar on June 5th at 12:00 PM EST on a topic that is near and dear to the hearts of the Zeihan on Geopolitics team: geopolitical risk. This webinar will feature Peter’s reasonable-fear list, focused on issues that in his opinion have the most potential to impact market outcomes.

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If you’re planning a coast-to-coast road trip through the US, you might want to wait until the Biden administration can liquidate the northeast gasoline reserves, here’s why…

Congress has mandated that these gas reserves be liquidated for a handful of reasons – being expensive and dangerous make that list – but there’s a few more important things at play. The 2nd phase of the shale revolution has helped bolster US refining capacity, meaning these stockpiles just aren’t needed.

So, if this liquidation can help take the sting out of energy prices for the average American, especially at a time when usage is at its highest, that’s probably not the worst thing in the world.

Prefer to read the transcript? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
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Transcript

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from a train in France, which I thought would be a great backdrop to talk about Gas Reserves. what tend to harm at the moment is the Biden administration is in the process of liquidating the Northeast Gasoline reserve. Now, this is something that was built up a little over a decade ago to make sure. 

And it’s seasonal demand surges, especially in the summer, don’t cause market problems. Were God permitted app shortages, toll tolls from boring. We’ll be back paying for back. anyway, that was the end. This is now, Congress has recently passed a law basically mandating implementation of the reserve because storing fuel was expensive and dangerous. Certainly more expensive a dangerous the story crude oil. 

And the United States now has the world’s largest refining capacity. So over the course of the last ten years, that could have gone through the second phase of the shale revolution, where it’s not so much about oil or little gas now was starting to process all the stuff that we’re producing. So the United States in the last 25 years has not been the world’s largest consumer of oil or an oil, largest imported, refined products, now the largest exporter of all of those very sort of in addition to electricity, in addition to natural gas sitting at a propane input, in addition to pretty much every energy and processed energy product on the planet. 

And so this reserve just isn’t necessary anymore. It’s an unnecessary expense. so, you know, totes operate, there’s also, of course, a little football. And, you know, remember, this is a mandated thing that the Biden administration is doing. But the Biden administration, of course, as the executive, has the ability to micromanage how it is done. So the reserve, which is about a million barrels of gasoline or about 40 million gallons of gasoline, anyway, so the Biden administration and decide how and when and where it is released. 

Well, it’s the northeast reserves all fuels in the northeast. So that’s kind of spoken for. as for the win, the release will be between the 1st of July and Memorial Day. So. Right in the heart of, the driving season, if I had statesman demand happens to be at the highest. the United States is having an issue with inflation right now. 

It’s something the Biden administration is worried about for its own survival. And so taking some of the sting out of energy prices at a time, honoring the energy prices and gasoline prices are highest makes a lot of, sense. So and that that is what is going on. And, I’m going to go out of my way. 

America’s Nuclear Supply Chain

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We’re finally seeing signs of life in Congress with the recent progress made on the establishment of a domestic uranium supply chain. This move aims to cut dependence on the Russians – who dominate global uranium processing.

This will be easier said than done though. Much of the nuclear infrastructure in the US is outdated and will need to be modernized in order to ensure a steady fuel supply. We’ll likely have to call in some favors from others who are already in the process of developing their own domestic supply system, like Canada and Australia.

This new development coming out of Congress is a step in the right direction and begins to address two major concerns facing the US: energy and national security.

Prefer to read the transcript? Click here

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TranscripT

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan coming to you from Colorado. the news at the moment is that late last week, we finally got the first functional laws through committee. and actually getting action on the congressional floors for building out a domestic uranium supply chain system. the idea is that if we can refine enough fuel to enrich enough fuel, being the technical term, we will be able to cut the Russians out of the mix. 

It’s all together. the Russians are the world’s single largest producer of enriched uranium. and they are responsible for nearly half of the global market in about one quarter of ours. the process is you take raw uranium from somewhere with Kazakhstan being the single biggest player and the Australians being the biggest up and comers. You then spin it up so that the fissile component makes up somewhere between 3 and 5.5% of the mix. 

You take that enriched uranium and build it into a fuel rod that eventually ends up in a nuclear power reactor. the issue that we have is peace. Ironically, at the end of the Cold War, the Americans and the Russians were left with literally tens of thousands of nuclear weapons. And we collectively decided that we were going to get rid of them. 

So the question was, what do you do with all the enriched uranium that is in a bomb? Now, the enriched uranium that’s at a bomb is at 3 to 6% enriched. It’s like 90 to 95% enriched because you want it to go kaboom. And so we basically spend that stuff down instead of up and used it to make fuel rods going from the other direction. 

Well, you do that for 25 years, which is what it took to get rid of all those weapons. And there really wasn’t much of an economic impetus for any company in the United States to do the more normal type of and other enrichment, up from uranium ore. So we basically stopped doing it altogether in the United States. It was only in places like Russia or China where was a national security issue. 

to build the stuff up, where they kept producing it. And so now we have to rebuild an enrichment system, at the civilian level. And that’s what these new laws are about now. right now, nuclear power provides about 20% of the American electricity mix. I think we’ve got 95 reactors out right there right now. the issue is we there’s only so much flexibility in that system because with a couple of exceptions, all of this reactors are more than 40 years old. 

Most of them are 50 years old. Actually, Three Mile Island was that 1973 or 1970 that I can’t remember anyway. They all predate Three Mile Island, except with two exceptions. so the idea that you can really update these things to more modern technology, and there’s not a lot of modern technology to do. So we have to go back to the old system to keep these online. 

  

on the upside. everyone has seen this coming, and they’ve been stockpiling for some time, so we probably have about two years of fuel supply here in the United States for a reactor system. And that should be plenty of time to basically replicate technology that dates back to the 50s. in order to build a domestic supply system. 

And we’ll also be getting some help from the Canadians and the Australians who are in the process of building out their own system for very similar reasons. So this Congress, while it has been difficult for it to do anything, has seemingly found an issue that is both energy related and national security related and seems to be actually progressing forward. 

So, you know, one miracle at a time. But I take my good news where I can’t these days take care. 

The TikTok Ban Is (Almost) Here…One Year Later

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A little over a year ago, we discussed a potential ban on TikTok in the US. Well, President Biden finally signed the “Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act”, which would ban TikTok or force its parent company, ByteDance, to sell it.

You can bet that TikTok won’t go down without a fight, so we’ll probably still be talking about this a year from now…but the video below is a little reminder about why I’m not torn about this ban.

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Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

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Will RFK Jr. Shake Up the 2024 Presidential Election?

Most of you have seen my previous video outlining how I see the 2024 US presidential election playing out…click here if you need a refresher or if you haven’t seen that yet.

RFK II has a presidential name, but I don’t think he’ll be finding himself in that position this go around. However, he does have the opportunity to cause some problems for Trump in the process.

Donald Trump has created enough challenges for himself by dividing the Republican party and alienating independents, but RFK Jr. might be able to add one more challenge to Trump’s campaign. We all know the conspiracy theorist wackadoos love Trump, but RFK Jr. is catching the eyes of some of the crazies.

While this group isn’t going to win either of these candidates a seat in the oval office, there’s potential for some of Trump’s strongholds to be split with RFK Jr. The impact to President Biden will be fairly limited, as the remainder of those bearing the Kennedy name support the current President.

Prefer to read the transcript? Click here

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Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

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TranscripT

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Colorado. Today we are going to take another entry from the Ask Peter Forum. this specifically regards the election, specifically about Robert Kennedy Jr and whether his entrance into the race is going to cost Biden a potential victory. let’s start by giving you the quick and dirty of where I see this election going. 

number one, Donald Trump has broke the unity of the Republican Party. There are fewer Republicans and Democrats at any given time. And so if the Republicans don’t have unity, it’s almost impossible for them to win the general election. And so if you have a situation where maybe upwards of a third of registered Republicans are just like, not interested in this guy, it’s almost impossible to envision a scenario where Trump can walk away with a victory. 

The second problem was with the independents, and I’m talking about the real independents. So in the American legal system, about 25 to 30% ish of the population are hardcore Democrats or hardcore Republicans. And then another 15 to 20% on each side say that they’re independent. But they really vote either Republican or Democrat over 90% of the time. So they’re really not independent. 

That just leaves the 10% in the middle. And one of the reasons, one of the many reasons why no American political pool poll ever taken before the political conventions has ever been right is because when you call a real independent before the conventions, they just hang up on you. so ignore all the polls that are out there right now. 

Anyway, in the midterm elections, which everyone seems to have forgotten two years ago. Trump backed candidates were gutted by real independents, and very few of them won at all. Donald Trump has basically told the independents that the only vote that matters is the primaries, not the general. And since the general is the only place where the independents have a voice, they broadly turned against Trump, or at least they had as of two years ago. 

We’ll see what happens this time around. Well, here’s the problem. There are fewer Republicans and Democrats. So not only would Trump have to carry the Republicans challenge, he also has to carry the independents, who he’s deeply offended in many levels. so unless something changes significantly, there isn’t a road to victory here for Trump. The question, of course, is whether or not RFK will shake that up a little bit. 

And I think it will, but probably not in the way that people are thinking. first of all, people like the idea of the name Kennedy. If you’re on the left, if you’re a Democrat because of, you know, John Kennedy and all that good stuff. the problem here is his own failed his disowned him on this topic. 

  

It was, just in early April that a dozen prominent Kennedy members, including former legislators, including half dozen of RFK Jr’s own siblings, showed up to campaign for Biden and campaign against their own family member. he’s definitely the black sheep of the family. He is. How do they put it? Loved but not liked. and so it’s really hard for me to see any classical Democrat, going with him just because the name, especially when the name is campaigning against him. 

the second issue, of course, comes back to independents because they are where a lot of this electoral cycle will be decided. And if you are a true independent, one of those 10%, somebody like me and you are looking at who is on the ballot, Trump and Biden again, you’re like, oh, somebody give me another choice. And I can see that argument for twisting a few things in places where the margin is small. 

the problem is, is that this guy’s not much better. people like to say that, you know, we’ve got 280 year olds running, and whoever wins on their first day in this coming term, they’ll be the oldest president to set foot in the white House. And that is true. they’re octogenarians, but RFK Jr is a set the generic. 

And so it’s not like he’s like the young chicken coming in from the side. I mean, this is no John Kennedy. which brings us to the third possibility that it could affect things on the Republican side. And I think that is far more realistic. the defining characteristic about RFK Jr is not that he’s a womanizer and a drug addict, or Kennedy. 

It’s it is a conspiracy theorist. And if there is a conspiracy theory out there that involves vaccines or diseases or the Chinese or the Jews or slinkys or jello or the moon, he’s in, in fact, the Russian bot farmer has made a habit whenever they make up something fresh, they tag him because they know he’s going to shout it from the rooftops. 

The problem here for Trump is that Trump thought he had cornered the batshit crazy vote, and now it’s going to be split. So there are some places that we had kind of penciled in that were locked in red for this upcoming election that might actually be in play, because the core group that Donald Trump has courted to ride himself to power are the populace. 

And that’s the part of the country that tends to go for these conspiracy theories the most. So we might see some of the strongest supporters in some of the strongest counties and precincts, actually flipping towards RFK a little bit, and that would be more than enough to add to the other factors to make sure that Donald Trump doesn’t get back into the white House. 

Whether, of course, that makes you jump for joy or cry in your milk depends upon where you stand. 

A Faint Glimmer of Hope in the House of Representatives

The House of Representatives is looking like dysfunctional family as of late, and of course, the weird uncle stirring up the pot is the Greenpeace faction. Opposing nearly every bill that dares to exist, they’ve essentially halted all legislative proceedings.

Despite the need for aid to Ukraine, bulwark assistance for Israel and Taiwan, defense reform, entitlement reform and more, all were hearing from the House are a series of steady shrieks. However, we might be seeing some action very soon thanks to discharge petitions. A discharge petition, requiring 218 signatures, forces debates on critical issues and gives bills a fighting chance at being passed. Even if – especially if – the Speaker would rather the bill not see the light of day.

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Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

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What Power Do the Independents Have Over Trump?

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No proper discussion of American politics is complete without mentioning the Independents. While their voting patterns have been historically predictable, Trump has Independents shaking things up a bit.

I expect Independents to favor anti-Trump candidates this election cycle, and remember that those polls placing Trump way out in front aren’t accounting for the Independent voters. If this plays out how I think it will, Trump will have led his party through a hefty series of defeats…and some big changes will soon follow.

So, all those factions in the Republican Party will have to do a little soul-searching and come up with a post-Trump strategy. Republicans 55 and younger will be looking toward what’s next, but we’ll have to wait and see if it’s a centrist movement, an entirely new party or a new coalition.

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Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

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TranscripT

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from my covered prison, also known as the Home Office. And we’re to close out our three parter on the upcoming elections with a disco version of the forgotten middle child of American politics, the independents, and how they are going to be determining the outcome of this race and how they’ve really already made up their mind.

The key thing to remember about independents is that they’re not part of the rest of the process and as a result, they feel a little annoyed, a little left out, and they keep getting presented with this binary choice between two horrible candidates and they have to plug their nose and vote for someone. However, they don’t do it in the way that you might imagine that a normal balancing factor would where they look at all the pros and look at all the cons and talk about it among themselves, and then they have a very knee jerk reaction.

It’s very predictable. They’re flighty, they have buyer’s remorse, and they almost always vote against whoever they voted for the last time. And it goes pretty much like clockwork. So they voted to put Obama into the office and they voted to bring him out of the office when he was up for reelection. The same happened for Bush. The same happened for Trump.

They voted him in because he wasn’t Obama. And then they voted against him because he was Trump. And they’ve done this over and over and over over throughout American history. And it’s one of the reasons why you usually see really big swings in the midterm election where the ruling party tends to lose a lot of seats in Congress.

While that didn’t happen this last time, when we got to the 2021 elections, the independents on their exit polling indicated that they really disliked Biden, specifically his economic policies, and very specifically that those economic policies were very bad for independents in general. And yet And yet. And yet. And yet, instead of generating the red wave, which history suggests happens almost every single time, or sorry, the opposition wave, they instead voted to keep the Democrats in the majority in the Senate, and they handed the Republicans the smallest majority they have ever seen in the last 180 years in the House.

Since then, the Republicans have managed to winnow that down even further because they ejected a guy who was using campaign funds to pay for porn. And the Republican while the far right, if you want to call it that, the populist right, the moderate, caused such a ruckus within the Republican caucus, within the Congress that they basically ejected their own speaker.

They didn’t just get McCarthy out of the speakership. They convinced him to quit Congress altogether, shrinking the majority even more. Now, why did this happen? Well, it comes down to Donald Trump. Donald Trump’s position in that the January six protests were about the real democracy. The idea that the election was stolen from him, even though there’s absolutely no facts at all that supported that.

And we now have almost every candidate who’s even running for president against him on the Republican side now saying that publicly. Remember, not a single court case was won. No, no, no. Cases of voter fraud were found. And all that resonates with independents. Just doesn’t that resonate with MAGA and Trump? What Trump is basically telling the independents is that the general election doesn’t matter.

And all of the decisions that should be made on American leadership should be made at the caucus in the primary level where he will dominate. And that means if you are an independent, you don’t have a voice. And they’re like, the hell I don’t. And so they showed up for a midterm, something they normally don’t do, and they voted against their own perceived best economic interests to vote in candidates who were anti Trump.

So they’ve broken with the pattern that has held true for the last several decades. And since Donald Trump hasn’t changed his tune on what went down in his general election, I think it’s pretty safe to say that the independents are not going to either. Let me give you an idea of how this is going to play out. This map here is what will happen if the independents split their vote evenly among the Democratic and the Republican coalition candidates.

Joe Biden, Trump. You’ll notice that if you add up those numbers, you can see in the bottom left how it breaks down that the Republicans need to swing a fair number of independents. So a 5050 split doesn’t work for them. They need to garner at least two thirds, preferably three quarters of the independents, in order to switch a lot of these purple states to red.

That’s not what we’re going to see. More likely, what we’re going to see is a repeat of what happened in the 2022 by elections. It’s going to replicate itself in the 2024 general elections, and that’s something more like this second map where the independents brief 2 to 1 in favor of anti-Trump candidates and favor Democratic candidates. And if this is what goes down, Donald Trump will be leading his party to the second or third greatest electoral feat in American history.

Now, you may say, well, that’s not what the polls are saying. The polls are saying that Joe Biden is so unpopular that Trump is actually trending towards a direct victory in a lot of states. Keep in mind, independents don’t participate in polls and certainly not a year ahead of time. Any poll that is further out than two or three months from the election is probably crap anyway.

But one in which the independents have no vested interest in playing. So I would just kind of toss that out to the side. What happens after is what’s going to get really interesting here. So what do you watch for moving forward? Well, you got to watch the people. If you consider that folks from the national security in the business community and the fiscal conservatives really have never been warm to Trump.

In fact, many of them have campaigned against Trump and vice versa. If you look at the world from their point of view, when Trump leads the Republicans to a defeat in this next election, it will be five electoral cycles. Since they have had one of their people in the White House. That has got to trigger some soul searching and some assessment as to what’s next and if we’re going to get a split in either party, it is probably going to be the Republicans and it is probably going to be because of this legacy of defeat.

And that will most likely lead them to break away and do something else. Some may become Democrats, some may form a new centrist party. Some may lead a direct rebellion against Trumpism. But those are the people who have the agency and the most reason to seek something out. Now, folks like Mitt Romney have decided to withdraw from the fight and leave it to the next generation.

So we’re going to be looking for people predominantly under age 55 who are trying to find a new way to function in this sort of environment, because the alternative is to simply never be in power again. And if there’s one thing I know about politicians that is ever the goal.

The Breakdown of the Republican Coalition

The Accidental Superpower: Ten Years On

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If you watched yesterday’s video, then you already know that Donald Trump has no shot at winning the general election (assuming he’s not DQ’d or in jail). Today, we’re looking at WHY Trump can’t get elected.

The US electoral system encourages two big-tent parties, comprised of various factions that rise and fall throughout the years. What the Republicans lack in numbers, they make up for in consistency and lack of conflict in the party (at least, they used to). The Democrats have the numbers but are incredibly inconsistent at the polls, and they fight like teenagers amid the “big change.”

Trump has introduced some unprecedented conflict into the Republican Party, and we’re seeing internal divisions among factions that have been historically aligned. With this Democratic-style conflict filtering its way through the Republican Party, the numbers just won’t work for Trump…and that’s before we even discuss independent voters.

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Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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TranscripT

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from the winter wonderland that is snowy Colorado. Today we’re talking about why Donald Trump has no chance of winning the general election, assuming he’s not disqualified, assuming that he’s not in jail. Okay, So you have to look at the way our electoral system works. We have a first past the post single member district system, which is a fancy way of saying that you vote for one person who is representing a very distinct geographic area.

It’s not like the Netherlands where you vote for a party. You’re voting for one specific person. And what that does is it encourages our parties to further to only be two of them and for them to be very big tent parties because they need to get that marginal vote more than whoever is running on the other side. It’s all about numbers of votes.

That’s one of the reasons why whenever we do get a third or fourth party that never lasts for more than one or two political cycles and then other parties fall out, we go back to the two. I’m not saying that can’t happen this time around, but we’re getting really late in the day for it to affect this election.

Maybe the next one. Anyway, first past the post. So if you’re going to have a big tent party, that means you’re going to have a lot of power centers, a lot of factions within each party, and those factions are going to rise and fall in political power as technology and geopolitics and social issues evolve. And we’ve certainly seen that in the last 30 years.

We’ve had hyper globalization, that we now have globalization. We’ve had the rise of the information economy and now social media. We’ve had the baby boomers being in their prime to the baby boomers now retiring in mass. We are going through one of these transitions. So it’s really important to understand where all the factions are, especially as related to each other youth in their own political party.

So, for example, Republicans versus Democrats, the Republicans have always had a numerical disadvantage because they just don’t have as many voters. They don’t have as many factions. You’ve got the pro-lifers, the military voters, the law and order voters, business voters, for example. And the reason that this faction, despite having fewer numbers than the Democrats, has always done relatively well, is because their issues in play typically don’t clash.

The pro-lifers really don’t care about business regulation. The business community really doesn’t care about military policy and so on. So you have a smaller coalition, but a very solid coalition, a very reliable coalition, and everybody shows up to vote every time. And so even though they don’t have as many members, you know what you’re going to get in each electoral cycle.

And if you can pull a few independents, you’re good to go. The Democrats have a different sort of system. They’ve thrown a very, very wide net indeed. And I’m oversimplifying here a little bit, but they basically a three part coalition minority is coastal, highly educated elites and organized labor. And the problem with that coalition is when you start running on the issues and talking about the specifics of policy during the campaign, it’s very difficult to have anything that all three of those factions agree upon.

So for example, those coastal educated elites, in order to get rid of racism, they started coming up with new terms to call people, which, you know, we usually call racist, but whatever. Anyway, next is my personal favorite has no root in any Latin culture. And something like 97% of Hispanics find it either pointless or a little offensive, but they tried to push it anyway.

And so you’ve got a split on social issues among those two groups. Another great example is the Green Revolution, which obviously the coastal educated folks are really big on. But the unions are not so much because most of those jobs are not going to be unionized. So whenever you get a candidate who is a little brainy and who runs on the issue, someone like Michael Dukakis or Hillary Clinton, you know, tries to make practical pledges during a campaign, you’re going to start a internecine fight and they’re going to have entire chunks of the Democratic electorate that just don’t show up at all.

And it’s very hard to win that way. What they need to win is a charismatic candidate who doesn’t really talk about anything real at all. And that’s why Barack Obama did so well. So this is the day that we have been facing for the last 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 years. Now, under normal circumstances, the Republicans have an advantage here because there are very few issues that are wedge issues within their own coalition.

But what Donald Trump has done is shake it up the race and introduced a number of wedge issues, not just across society but across the Republican electorate. And we now have any number of candidates who are I don’t know if say that are in Trump’s pocket is the how about in Trump’s corner? There we go that really break up the decision making process for voters.

So my personal favorite or I love to hate the most was Tommy Tuberville, who for months this year prevented military promotions in order to get his way on abortion policy. Those are two factions military voters and abortion voters who never had anything to fight about before. And all of a sudden they’re at each other’s necks. He’s so little.

Trump has driven the business community out of the coalition because he basically doesn’t like it when people tell him no or when they say yes. But, Mr. President, he wanted the adoration. That was it. And so you have the business community that is now completely alienated from the social conservative voters. And in that sort of environment, the Republicans are facing a Democratic style cohesion contest.

The problem here is that the Republicans don’t have as many voters as the Democrats. And even if they pass the cohesion test, then they have to deal with all the other things that Donald Trump brings to the table. So they’re not going to have their entire coalition showing up if Donald Trump becomes the candidate and that means just on the numbers, there’s no way that Donald Trump can win.

And that’s before you consider the independents were to do that in a different video.