As long as I’m slaying sacred cows, let’s make sure I don’t miss anything: the border wall has been the biggest boon of the last 50 years to illegal migrants, COVID has made large-scale immigration an economic necessity, and Trump/Biden policies towards immigration are one of the three largest sources of inflation today.
Yeah, that should piss some people off.
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The latest jobs report–published August 5–showed that the United States added over half a million new jobs in the month of July. Unemployment is at or a near a 50-year low. Both points add credence to a growing number of economists who are pushing back against the claim that the US economy is official in a recession, despite recording negative economic growth two quarters in a row (the textbook definition of a recession).
Confused?
You’re not the only one. The economy is contracting, albeit not by much, but consumer spending is near an all-time high. Unemployment is an all-time low. Manufacturing employment is up. The finance sector, less so. And yet inflation remains a persistent bugbear. What is clear, however, is that the old rules about how our economy works no longer apply.
And finally, a small programming note: I’m spending the next month hiking and backpacking throughout the portions of the American West. We’ll pick up with more content and more regular dispatches the first week of September.
The Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, has arrived in Taiwan. As such, she is the highest-ranking US official to make a visit to the island since her predecessor, Speaker Newt Gingrich, visited in 1997. While there is likely little both would agree on, the former Speaker has been quite supportive of Speaker Pelosi’s decision to visit Taiwan. China has been huffing and puffing about the visit since it was announced, but there’s very little Beijing could do short of shooting down Pelosi’s plane. Which isn’t likely to happen.
Beijing has viewed Taiwan as a breakaway province since the time of Mao, and has worked diligently to erode international recognition of Taipei under its One China Principle. The US since Nixon has held off formally recognizing Taiwan as an independent country, but since the end of the Cold War Washington has moved steadily toward an economic and security relationship with Taiwan that falls just short of official recognition, to Beijing’s dismay.
The United States announced August 1 that it had killed the ideological head of al Qaeda, Ayman al Zawahiri, in a drone strike, over the previous weekend. Reportedly battling a long-time illness, al Zawahiri’s actual level of control over al Qaeda (and its regional affiliates) is debatable. His role in the September 11 attacks against the United States in 2001 and in inspiring campaigns of militancy that killed thousands is decidedly less so.
I do take note of al Zawahiri’s presence in a home inside Kabul. The US–primarily its intelligence agencies–still maintain considerable capabilities in a country with no formal military presence. And they are more than happy to remind any number of bad actors of the fact.
The nature of the economic system so many governments are attempting to grapple with right now is unprecedented in modern history. For much of the span of human history since industrialization, governments could reasonably promise their subjects some kind of more. The promise of more held that the economy–no matter the political system in charge of it–could be expected to grow, largely through population growth and rising demand.
Enter the End of More. A central theme of my equally cheery-titled new book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning, the pie for many countries is as big as its going to get. This is especially true for countries staring down terminal demographies: Germany, Italy, China, Japan. With population growth firmly in the rear view mirror, these countries can’t rely on a baby boom to spur consumption-led growth.
Which brings us to our current problem with inflation. Central banks’ primary tool in battling inflation is through raising interest rates. Making borrowing more expensive usually dampens demand, thereby pressuring prices to fall. The trick is not dampening demand too much, and risking recession. For the world’s oldest populations, this is going to be an near-impossible balancing act.
And now for a bit of good news–The End of the World is now officially a New York Times best seller! On behalf of myself and my entire team: thank you, thank you, thank you.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
In light of recent moves by the US to lift some targeted energy sanctions on Venezuela to help bolster energy sanctions against Russia, we are sharing an earlier video on the difficulty the Biden administration would face in trying to rely on “partners” like Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia to limit the pain of sanctioning a major global oil and gas supplier. The challenges facing the global energy market are also a central theme in my upcoming book, The End of the World is just the Beginning, out June 14. Pre-order info here.
In an effort to ease Europe’s transition from Russian energy, the Biden administration has given the green light to two European oil companies—Italy’s Eni and Spain’s Repsol—to ship Venezuelan oil to Europe (and nowhere else) to cover debts.
This resumes a practice that was halted in 2019 by US-imposed sanctions. While this move will not drastically improve Europe’s situation, or affect global oil prices at all, it will boost Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s image in his country. For several years, the US has recognized Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s “Interim President,” despite his inability to oust President Maduro, even with ample US support.
Now the US is in the awkward position of returning to the negotiation table with Mr. Maduro, officially not the president of Venezuela, and relying on his government to ease global energy shortages. Interestingly, the Biden administration also granted permission to Chevron to partially resume operations in Venezuela, meaning the US supermajor can perform basic upkeep of its wells that it operates jointly with state-run oil giant PDVSA. Perhaps this is a hint at more to come, but at the moment Venezuelan crude will not be making its way to the US–nor will the Russian supplies of heavy crude Washington had been buying to replace it.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
In case you haven’t heard, my upcoming book The End of the World is Just the Beginning gets released this Tuesday, June 14. You can pre-order it here.
A lot of my work, and my books up to this point, have been about the rise of powerful nations and the global framework that got them there. This new book is a bit of a different creature.
This book is about the end of that system–namely, globalization–and what that means for our collective future. Whether its agriculture or manufacturing or finance or energy, there’s a chapter for everyone on how the pillars of the developed economy will look on the backend of one of the largest upheavals of the global economy since the end of World War II.
Here’s a video paraphrasing several of the book’s themes, applying them to the raft countries that we today collectively know as “the developing world.”
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release NEXT WEEK (!) on June 14. Immigrants and in-migration are always touchy topics. Allow me to present an excerpt from my upcoming book that is certain to make all Americans – and Mexicans – wince at least once.
In-migration to the United States hit a relative historical low in the 1970s—the decade in which America’s Boomers came of age. For Boomers—an overwhelmingly white demographic—their primary experience with interracial politics was the civil rights movement, a movement that involved people who were already here at a time when the Boomers were young and politically liberal.
In-migration then rose steadily until reaching a near-historical high (again, in relative terms) in the 2010s, at which point the Boomers were nearing retirement and in doing so becoming politically . . . stodgy. In each and every decade as the Boomers aged, the largest single immigrant group was always Mexican. In the minds of many Boomers, Mexicans have long been not simply the “other,” but the “other” that has arrived in ever-larger numbers. A big reason why so many Boomers have been so supportive of nativist politicians such as Donald Trump is that their feelings of shock at the pace of change in American society is not a collective hallucination. It is firmly backed up by reality. This is one piece of the kaleidoscope of why American politics has turned so sharply insular in the 2010s and early 2020s.
But regardless of what you think about Boomers or Mexicans or race or trade or assimilation or borders, there are a couple of thoughts to keep in mind:
First, Mexicans are already in the United States. Whether you’re concerned with what American culture feels like or what the labor market looks like, the great Mexican wave has not only come, it is over. Net migration of Mexicans to the United States peaked in the early 2000s and it has been negative for twelve of the thirteen years since 2008. Just as industrialization and urbanization pushed down birth rates in the developed world, the same process has begun in Mexico, just a few decades later. Today’s Mexican demographic structure suggests it will never again be a net large-scale contributor to American migration. Most of the big migrant flows into the United States since 2014 have instead been from the near-failed Central American states of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala.
Second, even among the most nativist strains of American political thinking, room has been found for Mexicans. In just two years, none other than Donald Trump went from openly condemning Mexican migrants as rapists and “bad hombres” to embracing Mexico in trade and security deals that took bilateral relations to their friendliest and most productive in the history of both republics. Part and parcel of Trump’s renegotiation of the NAFTA accords were clauses that expressly aim to bring manufacturing back to North America. Not to the United States specifically, but to any signatory of the accords. Team Trump added those clauses with Mexico expressly in mind.
On the other side of the equation, Mexican-Americans are turning nativist. The demographic in the United States that consistently polls the most anti-migration is not white Americans, but instead (non-first-generation) Mexican-Americans. They want family reunification, but only for their own families. Never forget that anti-migrant, build-the-wall Donald Trump carried nearly every county on the southern border when running for reelection in 2020.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
The United States Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates in 2022. The question is not longer one of “if” or “when,” but how frequently and by how much. The implications will reverberate throughout American society and the economy.
It won’t just be new homebuyers scrambling to lock in low interest rates before the hike, or investors–jumping from tech stocks to crypto to GameStop to NFTs–who are likely to feel the pinch. Federal spending (and by extension, policy), investments in the manufacturing space, and global trade will all be impacted. And in the backdrop of a major global demographic shift, and countless opportunities and pitfalls abound.
If you enjoy our free newsletters, the team at Zeihan on Geopolitics asks you to consider donating to Feeding America.
The economic lockdowns in the wake of COVID-19 left many without jobs and additional tens of millions of people, including children, without reliable food. Feeding America works with food manufacturers and suppliers to provide meals for those in need and provides direct support to America’s food banks.
Food pantries are facing declining donations from grocery stores with stretched supply chains. At the same time, they are doing what they can to quickly scale their operations to meet demand. But they need donations – they need cash – to do so now.
Feeding America is a great way to help in difficult times.
The team at Zeihan on Geopolitics thanks you and hopes you continue to enjoy our work.
Greetings from Iceland! With the FDA giving Pfizer’s Comirnaty (the two-shot regimen formerly known as the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine), it’s important to note what this does and does not mean for the average American.
Most important: it does not mean that the Pfizer vaccine is not an experimental drug. That ended largely a year ago following the largest human trials in human history. What we should expect is a rise in vaccine mandates across federal agencies, schools, and private businesses.
If you enjoy our free newsletters, the team at Zeihan on Geopolitics asks you to consider donating to Feeding America.
The economic lockdowns in the wake of COVID-19 left many without jobs and additional tens of millions of people, including children, without reliable food. Feeding America works with food manufacturers and suppliers to provide meals for those in need and provides direct support to America’s food banks.
Food pantries are facing declining donations from grocery stores with stretched supply chains. At the same time, they are doing what they can to quickly scale their operations to meet demand. But they need donations – they need cash – to do so now.
Feeding America is a great way to help in difficult times.
The team at Zeihan on Geopolitics thanks you and hopes you continue to enjoy our work.
