I identified the likely challenges facing Russian oil production at the outset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine – chief among them Moscow’s inability to keep oil flowing in the absence of foreign investment and tech, but also buyers.
Without customers to send crude to, there’s little incentive for the Russians to pump it out of the ground in the first place. This was something I had originally anticipated happening 2-3 months into the conflict.
But the international community, especially the Europeans, have moved harder and faster than I had thought. Between a mix of bans on Russian energy imports, insurers wary of dealing with Moscow, sanctions on Russian banks, and a significant amount of tanker crews, port workers, and collective voluntary boycotting of Russian crude, Russia’s worst-case scenario seems to be already unfolding.
A handful of refineries across Russia have already announced reductions in output due to a lack of demand. This is not good news. If refineries don’t have customers, the oil fields and pipelines that supply them don’t, either. Ditto for storage. Which means oil stays in the ground. And pipelines lay idle. For a Russia without foreign investment, foreign oil services firms, foreign technology, and foreign buyers, the future looks bleak indeed.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
