In Kherson, a Turning Point?

Ukrainian forces are poised to rout Russian defensive formations around the critical southern city of Kherson. This comes weeks after a planned counter offensive went into effect, but on the heels of significant gains made against Russian troops in Ukraine’s northeast, which saw Kyiv recapture Izium and and the strategic rail hub of Lyman.

The battle for Kherson will represent a significant bellwether in the current phase of the Ukraine conflict. Russia’s best troops and equipment are stationed there. If they dissolve, as have other fronts in recent weeks, not only does this have significant implications for Russia itself but the capture of advanced Russian equipment by Kyiv’s forces will represent a larger and more significant transfer than nearly anything NATO has provided up to this point.

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Russia’s Mobilization Efforts Contend With Modernity

When it comes to conventional warfare, Russian leaders have relied upon the same tactic for centuries: throw people at the problem. Russian territory has poor defensibility–so too do the lands of the countries Russia has between its own borders and most overland invasion routes. The solution? Plug the gaps with bodies. Lots of them.

What foreign forces didn’t get mucked up in, well, the mire of the Northern European Plain, usually had to contend with the poor souls Russian leadership was able to place between itself and those forces seeking to invade. The advent of modern warfare has diminished the effectiveness of these tactics, from machine guns to modern artillery and drones, but Russian military leadership has to contend with another wrinkle: the mobility of modern Russian men. Gone are the days when you could corral villagers and locals and send them off to front lines. As we’re seeing along all roads out of Russia, those who can run away from mobilization notices are choosing to do so. In the hundreds of thousands–to say nothing of those who are likely avoiding call up notices within Russia itself.

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Something Fishy in the Baltic Sea…

Something’s damaged the Nord Stream supply lines that transit through the Baltic Sea. Inconvenient in the best of times, sure, but in the current geopolitical climate there are tons of theories and fingers being pointed all around. 

Was it the Americans, wanting to prevent the Europeans from crawling back to an abusive natural gas supplier? The Russians themselves (despite already electing to voluntarily halt gas supplies?) Tough love from Baltic Euro states? Ukrainian Saboteurs? A freak accident? 

Frankly, none of the these theories hold up. This is one of those moments where as much as we’d like some immediate clarity, we’re simply going to have to wait and see…

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Russia Calls Up More Troops

Russian president Vladimir Putin has called up some 300,000 Russian troops in a “partial mobilization” to assist Russian forces in Moscow’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have had some recent successes on the battlefield against Russian troops in the roughly 7-month-old conflict. Putin’s move reflects a classic Russian tactic (throwing more bodies at a problem), but is as likely a move to refresh troops on the ground as it is in reaction to recent losses. 

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Europe Reconsiders Russian Tourism

European nations are debating a potential Russian tourist ban, with the general theme being “you shouldn’t be able to visit our beaches and luxury shops while simultaneously supporting a regime declaring war against Ukraine (and potentially the West).”

Europe being Europe, there are a range of attitudes expressed. The Scandinavians, Polish and Baltic states on the frontline with Russia are the most vociferously opposed to allowing any Russian tourism into their respective countries and the EU. France and Germany have been more circumspect.

Given the number of Russian elite who vacation, send their children to live in, and shop in European cities, there are those that argue that such a ban will help further cleave Vladimir Putin from the small but crucial cadre atop Russia society.

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The Matter of Nukes and Ukraine

“What about Russian nukes?”

It’s a question I hear in some form or another almost daily while I’m traveling to speak and meet with clients, or in response to my newsletters. My attitude most days is “well, what about them?”

Let’s consider Russia’s strategic aims in Ukraine. Ukraine, as a buffer state, only continues to perform as such if it’s under Russian control. If not, well… your enemies, perceived or in reality, can flood the space with arms and combatants and use it as a launching pad to strike at the heart of the Russian state. More important, Russia needs to regain control of Ukraine so that if (read: when) it’s deemed necessary, Russian forces can move into places like Poland and Romania and occupy the critical geographies used to move troops and materiel overland to invade Russia.

So called “tactical,” or small-scale nuclear weapons aren’t great for holding territory. Nuked territory isn’t great for stationing troops. And long-range ICBMs lobbed at the US or London or Paris are even worse for holding territory, or keeping Russian Presidents and a socio-politico-economic mafia elite alive. This is especially true if we consider the state of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. There are some arguments that even if Russian troops and armored transports and planes and tanks and fuel trucks and MREs and intelligence and cyber and logistical capabilities are at levels far below what the world was expecting, they’re still keeping the crown jewels of Russian defense–the nuclear arsenal–is top operating condition.

I’m less than convinced. The only thing more foolhardy and full of risk than a cornered, losing Russian president trying to fire nukes willy-nilly? The same-such president pushing the red button and having the world witness a failure to launch.

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China: Balancing a Floundering Russia and Angry Americans

Things aren’t looking great for Beijing. 

Weeks of military posturing and a range of indirect-to-direct military threats against Taiwan following United States Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei were meant to remind the world who’s boss. It would seem…not China. 

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced yesterday (the video below was recorded yesterday, so please forgive any anachronous turns of phrases) that the US government would be halting sales of airframes and related technology to Beijing for the foreseeable future, as a direct response to Chinese agitation. While the Chinese have responded with some economic measures of their own, it is worth noting that there is precious little in the way of meaningful replacements for what they were seeking to buy from Boeing. This follows previous US de facto bans on high-end silicon chip technology (including manufacturing tech and equipment) making their way to China. (Two points to mention during upcoming holidays if there’s a lull in conversation: for all the folks in your life who are committed to a view that China is poised to take over the world–they are utterly dependent on the US for a whole host of critical technologies and inputs into their supply chains, not to mention the facilitation of their global trade networks. And that the Biden administration has struggled to put as much effort into anything as it has into making Donald Trump’s dream of using US trade policy to cudgel China into reality, tweets and all.)

Expect the Europeans to follow the Americans’ lead. 

It’s not entirely doom and gloom for the Chinese, though. At a summit earlier this week Russian president Vladimir Putin signaled he was ready to cave to a number of long-standing Chinese demands as the Ukraine war continues to go oh so very badly for Moscow. With little end in sight for European and American sanctions against the Russian economy, China is in the catbird seat with regard to Russia. We’ll see how long they’ll be able to use that to their advantage, however, and their broader strategic position continues to look grim…

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Germany and Russia Start Dancing…Again

Americans woke up to news today that Germany has nationalized assets–primarily refineries–owned by Russian oil giant Rosneft. Assets worth billions of dollars.

Though this is not surprising or unexpected, it’s something we should take seriously. Germany and Russia have a famously difficult relationship going back centuries, and when the going gets rough their disputes get ugly (ask just about anyone in Poland or Ukraine). The more armed conflicts between Russia and Germany, the greater the incentive for them to avoid conflicts all together. 

The default approach since the end of the Cold War was to entwine their two economies to such an extent that it would not make sense for either of them to destabilize or threaten the other. We’re seeing now how much Russian leadership values economic stability over its perception of national security. Unlike previous bouts of Russo-European conflict, however, the current demographic situation on both sides of the conflict is atrocious. Whatever the final result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, what we should not expect is an easy or quick return to economic stability, let alone growth, for either side.

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The Collapse of Empires

The success of Ukrainian forces against Russian troops over the last week is forcing a series of reevaluations of Russian capabilities–especially in the places most of us might not yet be thinking about. There’s been a lot of focus on whether or not Russian threats have teeth. But what of Russian promises of support? 

For a certain swathe of the world, particularly those countries hostile or indifferent to the US-led Order, Russia was about as good or proximate a neighbor as they could hope for. With Russian capabilities under serious scrutiny, countries from Armenia to Belarus to Syria to Mongolia and Moldova are going to see their strategic environments change rapidly. 

There is an elephant in the room in many of these scenarios… and that’s Turkey. Whatever their current economic headaches, the Turkish state under Erdogan has maintained a constant march toward realizing a populist, Islamist-tinged, pan-Turkic nationalism that has played out in several ways. One of the most recent has been Turkey’s arming and not-so-tacit support of Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia. Even with Turkey’s erstwhile EU aspirations and current NATO membership, Ankara has been equally at ease in pursuing its own priorities during the bloc’s conflict with the Russians over Ukraine.

But perhaps nowhere will see the full unfurling of Turkish geopolitical ambition in the wake of Russian strategic senescence more than Syria. The Alawite regime in Damascus relies (relied?) heavily on its Russian and Iranian backers, and with Moscow out of the way Ankara faces little opposition. Squashing Kurdish ambitions, redrawing borders, setting up a puppet state, coordinating with Israel to counter Iran–all are on the table for a would be neo-Ottoman Turkey without strong pushback from Russia and Iran.

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Where In the World: Red Devil Lake and Russian Propaganda

Bernie Sanders has long been my least favorite personality in the American political world. Not because he’s an idiot (although he is) or because his ideology is historically, morally and economically blind (although it is all those things), but because he has long been an enthusiastically active and willing stooge for Moscow’s propaganda in the United States. Jill Stein regularly makes my bottom five for similar reasons.
 
But times change. Apparently, the mass murder of Ukrainians in the tens of thousands did something in Sanders’ mind that Moscow’s pointing of thousands of nuclear weapons at his constituents did not. No worries for the Kremlin. There are others in the Western world willing to prostrate themselves to Vladimir Putin. Their reasons vary (greatly) but to a person they are among the greatest threats to the American experiment and way of life.
 
I’m not going to dive into their rationales. That’s a task for people with far greater interest in the Thunderdome of American politics than I have ever possessed. But I can and will outline the whys of Russian propaganda. It didn’t come out of the blue. Its very existence is wrapped up in how Moscow has ruled its territories going back to the beginning.

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