Kyiv announced a counteroffensive against Russian positions around the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson earlier this week, aimed at liberating the strategic oblast’s capital. Russian forces have been in control of the city and most of the region since early in the war.
Situated along the Dnieper River, the region is proximate to some of Ukraine’s most strategic geography and infrastructure; at the moment the most strategic of that infrastructure are the bridges crossing the Dnieper, which brings us to the topic of the day. The difficulties Russia is experiencing in moving troops and materiel across the Dnieper are exactly the sort of trouble Soviet planners wanted to give any would-be Western invaders looking to move east. (They really didn’t plan on Kyiv moving out from under Moscow’s thumb.)
Ukrainian forces have made good use of training and Western arms supplies, particularly American HIMARS, to weaken and in some cases destroy much of this infrastructure. Which creates several interesting possibilities should the Ukrainians prove successful in pushing the Russians back…
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After an adventure that included harrowing high altitude crossings, brushes with forest fires, a pulled hamstring, and some really good wine, I have returned from my annual detox trip. But before I start laying down some brainwork, I thought it best to make an introduction.
We at Zeihan on Geopolitics are happy to share our thoughts with you on global events–in video format and our newsletters–free of cost. We have always done so free of cost, and will continue to do so in the future. But for those of you who are interested and able, we do ask that if you find our content informative and useful to please join us in supporting various charities.
For the remainder of 2022, we have elected to support MedShare. MedShare is a longstanding charity with global reach, delivering medical supplies and training to communities in need. Their mission addresses both chronic need and crisis response. We have provided links to both their general operations and Ukraine-specific funds below, and you can here their profile on Charity Navigator here.
Turkish and UN diplomats have spent the last several weeks trying to forge a deal between Ukraine and Russia that would see Kyiv’s embargoed wheat be able to reach ports around the world. There have been several challenges facing Ukraine’s exports, not the least of which is the fact that Kyiv mined many of its own seaways in an attempt to stymie hostile Russian naval activity in the region.
This week marked the first shipment of grain under a newly forged agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and while many are hopeful the deal will facilitate greater global grain supplies there are a few reasons to remain skeptical.
Gazprom, the Russian state’s gas monopoly notified its European customers that it was declaring force majeure in its supply contracts going back to June 14, citing “extraordinary circumstances” preventing the delivery of natural gas. It’s easy to guess what the circumstances referenced are–the conflict in Ukraine, sanctions, etc. Is this just Russian brinksmanship? A negotiating chip?
Maybe. Probably not. We shouldn’t forget that Nord Stream 1, the direct gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, is currently undergoing routine maintenance until later this week. There’s still no strong indication that Russian gas supplies will resume in whole or in part, and with today’s declaration Moscow has legal cover to halt energy supplies to the economic heart of Europe. As if legal cover is all Russia needs.
In the links below, we’ve included a series of videos I’ve recorded over the past few months that outline Russia’s strategy, Europe’s rather pitiful few options, and the rather bleak reality that Russia increasingly sees itself not just at war with Ukraine, but in direct conflict with Europe. To expect energy supplies to continue as normal is a fantasy that not even the most optimistic German industrialists can pretend to believe in anymore. The EU–especially Germany–and Russia both saw the increase of energy interconnectivity and pipeline politics (or “diplomacy”) or the past few decades as a game of increasing leverage. The question was always, for whom? Europe always hoped that it could entice Russian good behavior through economic linkages and purchase contracts. We’re likely to see in coming days where the power in this relationship, pun intended, really flows from.
A question I am often asked after presentations, or on Twitter, is one on the subject of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s removal. Is it a question of when or if? Why hasn’t it happened yet? Who would do it?
No less than sitting United States Senators have voiced their opinions on this topic publicly. And Major General Kyrylo Budanov, of Ukraine’s Intelligence service, has not been shy of mentioning his views that such a move in Moscow is imminent. (For what it’s worth, it seems he’s been happy to share this story every few weeks to whomever will listen. Broken clocks, I guess…) Western outlets speculate on a whole host of issues affecting Putin: blood cancer. Parkinson’s disease. Degenerative bone or neurological symptoms. Is Putin a lizard person?
My two cents? it doesn’t matter. Russian aggression against Ukraine is not unique to President Putin. The weakness of Russian geography shapes Russian geopolitical imperatives. The Soviet Union had no shortage of horrors it was willing to inflict on Ukrainians to keep them close and subjugated. Imperial Russia’s leaders had similar expansionist tendencies as Putin today. The desire to control Ukraine is not Putin’s particular bit of fancy; it’s been a part of Russian regional strategy for centuries.
Few industries are going to see as much upheaval in coming years as global agriculture. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the volatility of global fertilizer and fuel markets, shipping and transport challenges and more are complicating every step of the process from planting crops to the delivery of food to grocery stores and ultimately our plates. To say nothing of inflation. While the outlook for global food supply remains bleak, there are a few bright spots. Namely, the United States.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
US bond rating service Moody’s announced that Russia was in default of its foreign debt payments yesterday, a first for Moscow since 1918. Unlike most countries who go into default, Russia has the money to pay its debts. But the sanctions put in place following the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow does not have a reliable mechanism to deliver payment to its debt holders. While the Russian central bank is trying to argue that this does not constitute a technical default, the episode does highlight some of the particularities of the approach the US and its allies are taking in sanctioning Moscow and the rest of the world is taking note.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Many, many thanks to those of you who have helped make my new book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning, a New York Times best seller. As is typical with authors who make it onto the list, there is a sort of mad dash for their previous works.
Please allow me to give a brief description of my first three books–more info on them here–if for no other reason than the proceeds from the sales of these titles are being donated to the Afya Foundation (more info on them below). The Afya Foundation is the charity we’ve selected to help and highlight as they continue to deliver medical supplies to Ukrainians in need following Russia’s invasion of that country.
Which brings us to the current situation in Ukraine. While the Ukrainian military has performed beyond most people’s wildest expectations, the Russians have dug themselves in for the long haul. The humanitarian and geopolitical impacts have already been considerable and they show no signs of abating anytime soon.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
I decided to limit my harassment of everyone (and my staff) this past holiday weekend, but I did want to thank everyone for being so supportive of the new book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning. It is doing disturbingly well on the charts and maybe, just maybe, we’re looking at a bestseller here? We’ll know when the lists come out June 26.
Anywhatever, the world didn’t stop simply because Americans were celebrating their newest national holiday and I was engaging in some much needed decompression, so I’ve taken the liberty of putting together a much-longer-than-normal videologue to encapsulate the two big events over the weekend. Both are Ukraine War related.
The first deals with a new flash point in the conflict. Not in Ukraine proper, but instead directly between the Europeans and Russians over Russia’s Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad. The second deals with the early stages of the collapse of the European energy system, with the immediate event being Germany’s decision to move back to coal in a very big way.
War. Energy shortages. Transport breakdowns. Famine on the horizon. It’s getting real out there. Stay safe.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
If you find scenarios like the one I discuss in the video below interesting, I discuss how changes in the global order impact several industries from insurance to manufacturing to finance to agriculture and energy and beyond in my new book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning, available everywhere–including your local bookstore.
At the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe, NATO and much of the industrialized world moved quickly to isolate Moscow economically. As part of those moves, Russia saw its seaborne oil export volumes fall off precipitously–to the tune of 1 million barrels a day. Volumes that large threatened to shut in several of Russia’s oilfields.
Even as a collection of private interests moved against Russian seaborne shipments–crews, ports, captains, ship owners–it has taken European governments longer to formalize a sanctions package that denied ships carrying Russian cargoes access to the global insurance market.
While some of you might think that shipping insurance is decidedly unsexy, it forms a bedrock of modern seaborne transport. You need insurance to enter and exit ports, to transit the Suez and Panama canals, to go through high-risk areas like Malacca and Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb. Without it, you risk holding the bag if any problems occur. (Imagine if your tanker gets wedged sideways in the Suez Canal. Or you’re stuck on either side of said ship. Or you run aground accidentally. Etc.)
Europe and the United States account for roughly 95% of the private insurance market. Outside of that, the only realistic option is sovereign indemnification of ships–having independent states insure cargoes. India and China have gone this route, eager to gobble up Russian crude with a $30+/barrel discount. Through some inventive accounting, ship registries, ship-to-ship transfers and more, Russian crude has steadily crept back to more-or-less pre-invasion levels.
Enter American and European sanctions. The ad hoc group of shippers, crews and port workers denying Russian goods access to European sea lanes has more or less been formalized, with a global impact. As the international sanctions regime intensifies, India and China might do well to revisit their stance on importing Russian crude and decide to voluntarily reduce imports–similar to their approach at the outset of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
