How Extensive is the Corruption in the Chinese Military?

The Accidental Superpower: Ten Years On

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I had a handful of y’all point out that not everyone in the recent Chinese purges was targeted for political reasons; instead, many of these folks are facing corruption charges.

The level of corruption within the Chinese military is unknown, but I bet it’s more widespread than most people think. Between the missile silos that lack functioning hatches and the ballistic missiles filled with water instead of fuel, China is experiencing a Russian level of corruption.

The extent to which this has impacted and will continue to influence China’s military readiness and modernization program is expected to be significant. So, for all my non-Chinese viewers out there, I hope you get a good chuckle out of all this.

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TranscripT

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here. A few of you wrote in yesterday pointed out rightly that there is corruption in the Chinese government, and it’s not that not everything that Xi Jinping is doing is a purge of personnel for political reasons. I mean, that’s the primary thing, but it’s not the only one. He’s already pushed a quarter of a million people into corruption charges.

But for the military specifically, we’ve had a few things that have kind of bubble up over the last few days that are just a riot. So we now know that the the guy who was in charge of the country’s missile forces, as well as the secretary of defense, were in part dismissed last year because they had been siphoning money off from the procurement process.

And at some point over the summer of the fall, Xi Jinping discovered that all of those missile silos that the government has been building out in western China to achieve some sort of strategic parity. The United States, a lot of the hatches don’t open. And but that’s not the best part, The best part is that for a lot of the intercontinental ballistic missiles instead of fuel in the tanks, they just filled them up with water.

And that is something that, you know, you would expect to get kind of caught on. So you can only imagine how much stuff down the line has been lied about and stolen. But the only country that we can compare here to this level of theft would be Russia. We now know from the Ukraine war that probably two thirds of the funding that Putin has a lot of to the military over the last 15 years were just stolen.

I have no idea what the percentage is going to end up being for China. I’m sure it’s a lot higher than people were expecting. The only specific incident that I can think of where this fuel tank water issue is, even a meaningful comparison is back in the nineties when Russian MiG maintenance crews started siphoning off the coolant from the MiGs in order to drink it because it was cheaper than buying alcohol.

The scale of this appears to be just massive and obviously it’s going to have an impact on the readiness and the expansion of the modernization program of the Chinese military. Anyway, so this is kind of a yes, but or a yes and two yesterday. And everybody I hope you get a good chuckle out of it. And of course, with your Chinese, in which case, you know, tough.

Chairman Xi Jinping Guts the Chinese Military

The Accidental Superpower: Ten Years On

With a new “10 years later” epilogue for every chapter, comes an eye-opening assessment of American power and deglobalization in the bestselling tradition of The World is Flat and The Next 100 Years.

ORDER MY NEW BOOK HERE

Xi Jinping is doing his best Darth Vader impression and has the Chinese military in a force choke. After purging the system of anyone who can think, all that remains is the shell of a Defense Minister (now a press secretary for military diplomacy) and the “real” decision makers – the Central Military Commission – chaired by none other than Xi himself.

The Chinese military has remained largely untouched by Xi’s purges over the years, but this last round sought out any political players and corrupt personnel within the military. So, anyone with two brain cells, overly ambitious or competent, has been “relieved of duty.”

The Central Military Commission, which is now comprised of yes-men and sit-there-and-smile-men, will likely lose any semblance of military preparedness to prioritize ideological adherence. I’ll let you judge what that means for the future of the Chinese military…

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First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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TranscripT

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Colorado. We’re going to talk about some things that have gone down in China as regards to the military. Now there are a lot of folks who like to stress about the Chinese military and who are convinced that if we ever do get into a real fight with the Chinese, that we have our asses handed to them.

I’ve never been part of that crowd, mostly for an equipment point of view. They’ve got two carriers that have never seen conflict. We’ve got 20, which have seen lots of fights over the last several decades. Most of their ships can’t sail more than a thousand miles from shore. And that assumes that going in a straight line and no one’s shooting at them and they’re going slow to say fuel.

Whereas our fleet is fully bluewater capable. But I’m not going to talk about the technical aspects of the military today. But it said the leadership assets, the functional, the structural stuff. Now, in the United States, we have a defense secretary who’s in formal command of the forces and who reports directly to the president as a member of the cabinet.

So orders go from the president to the secretary of defense to the troops. That’s not how it works in China. In China, the defense minister does not have operational control over the military or over policy. They’re more of a glorified press secretary that deals with military diplomacy. And they are, as a result, the interface with our folks. But those are the decision makers.

The decision makers sit on the Central Military Commission, which is chaired by. Now, if you go back a few months, the Chinese government has been seeing a series of purges for all the not just a few months for 14 years now. And it claimed the defense secretary over this past summer and it took a while to happen. The guy basically vanished, didn’t show up at the office, wasn’t in first at all for two months before he was formally disposed.

And it’s only in the last couple of weeks that we finally have a new defense minister, a guy by the name of Dong Zhu, and he’s a an admiral. But again, the defense minister position in China is not all of that. The real decision making power lies elsewhere. Now, the issue that we’ve been seeing in China as regards to these purges has been robust.

It’s about JI trying to tighten his grip on everything. And over the course of the last few months, he’s fired 20 top level people, 12 in just the last two weeks In order to put his stamp on the military. You have to look at this from his point of view. When he came in, China was one of the most corrupt countries in the world.

And also it was one of the more centrally disassociated the Chinese Communist Party industry has tried to be very centralized and to all decision making to flow through Beijing into Xi personally. And China is a country of, you know, 1.3 billion people. And that requires a lot of hands on government at the regional and the local level. And when you’ve got decision making it the regional and local level people make decisions at the regional and the local level.

And that means that she would rather have them singing his praises rather than doing the dirty work of day to day governance. So he submitted a series of purges both to go after the corruption and against his political competition, perceived or otherwise. And over the next 12 years, basically gutted the system of anyone who might stand against him by going against anyone who might stand up.

And so whether it’s in local government or state government or in academia or business or in the federal bureaucracy, it has been purged of anyone with any ambition and any competence. The reason that the military was left out of those first several purges is because it was strong and because these people had guns. You deal with that last.

And now he’s starting to deal with that as well. And so a lot of the purges we have seen are going after either political players or folks that are actually guilty of corruption. And so, you know, about 20 so far, including a recently appointed defense minister ticked by, none other than Xi himself. Now, remember that Central committee that does the military planning and is now stacked just like the Chinese Politburo with incompetent.

Yes, man. Well, not even people who say yes, people won’t say anything because she doesn’t want to be bothered. So what we see now is starting to impose upon the military the same structural gutting that we’ve seen for everything else. China’s already gone from having a bureaucracy to one that doesn’t function at all because nobody wants to transmit information because they don’t know how she’s going to respond.

And now we’re seeing that in military activities as well. So is this good or bad? Well, it really depends upon who you are and where you care about and where you live. But think of it this way. In the old system, China’s military preparedness and capability was probably sharply limited by lack of expertise and by massive corruption, things like Russian style stealing of the funds.

Now, if she has his way, a third of the working hours of all the military will be spent reading texts written by Jingping about Xi Jinping, about how wonderful his using Peng is. Which one of those makes a better military? Not quite sure. It matters.

The Greatest Threat to American National Security

If I told you that high-ranking military personnel were losing security clearances and access to critical information, you’d probably expect to hear some sound rationale. Unfortunately, that’s not the case because the current greatest threat to our national security is an Alabama Senator up in arms over abortion policy.

Senator Tommy Tuberville has placed a unilateral hold on nominations and confirmations of military officials because he doesn’t like the Biden administration’s current policy of allowing officers to travel for abortion services. Consequently, the affected military personnel cannot access the classified information necessary for strategic planning.

Abusing power to manipulate outcomes is nothing new for American politics; however, political deadlocks that impede military operations are detrimental and problematic for the country’s security interests. Given the context of the Ukraine War and rising tensions with China, this poses a substantial risk that should not be taken lightly.

Prefer to read the transcript? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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Transcript

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Toronto, where I finally found something that is taller than me. And to commemorate September 11, I thought it would be a good idea to talk about the largest significant national security threat facing the United States. It’s not terrorism from the Middle East. One of the things that we have learned over the 20 years in the war on terror is that most of the militants, most of the Islamists are interested in fighting what they call the mere enemy.

Does it mean that the risk to the United States is zero? But most of these folks are far more concerned with the war that is right in front of them, taking the conflict to sectarian opponents or groups that they think are apostates, who are right there throwing a Hail Mary through a transcontinental flight. That is something that is simply difficult to do and most don’t have the capacity to try.

I also don’t think it’s China. China is dependent on the international system as maintained by the United States. And even if Chairman Xi Jinping’s cult of personality decides to pull the trigger on a war with, say, Taiwan, the United States is not going to engage within sight of the Chinese mainland. It’s going to pull back and shut off Chinese trade.

And since the Chinese import the vast majority of their energy and the inputs necessary to grow their own food, the result would be a massive famine and a de-industrialization with honestly would crush China as a country within a year. That leaves Russia. Now, Russia is obviously a concern, especially with the war in Ukraine. But as long as the war is bottled up in Ukraine or in Russia proper, that it’s not coming for NAITO.

So while this is definitely something to keep an eye on, it is a big concern and has huge implications. I don’t see, at least in the mid-term, as the single largest threat the United States faces. I think that’s closer to home because in the United States right now, we’ve got over 300 top military professionals who can’t even qualify for their security clearances, make it impossible for them to get the information that they need to plan for whatever’s next.

We have hobble ourselves or, more to the point, a specific individual in Congress has done the hobbling. Senator Tuberville of Alabama has put a blanket hold on the nominations on the confirmations of all military personnel as part of a tiff within the culture war. Now, where do you stand on that culture war? That is your prerogative. But in blocking officers from participating in their jobs, if you can’t get confirmed, you can’t get the information, you can’t get clearance and you can’t make a plan.

So we have taken he has taken the single most powerful military force in the world and gutted its leadership’s ability to lead. Which means that either Senator Tuberville is one of the most skilled Chinese agents ever, or he’s the dumbest person in Congress. And if you think of the personalities in Congress, that’s a pretty strong statement. All right, everybody, take care.

The Recruiting Crisis: US Military Adapts to Zoomers

I’m about halfway through the Geissler Peak Traverse, and the plan for the rest of the day is to head down to Aspen, find the nearest bar and shoot the shit with some strangers…if that sounds like your worst nightmare, then today’s video is about you.

The US military has had recruitment issues for a while, and the next generation reaching the recruitment age (aka those who hate any and all things social) won’t be making it any easier. But this isn’t just a US military issue; this is the leading edge of a recruiting crisis for everyone.

The good news is that we already have a solid understanding of Zoomers. Not just from an inflow to the labor market perspective but also culturally. They are ethnically diverse, open-minded, good with tech, highly educated, loyal workers…but very anti-social.

Adapting to the expertise and preferences of Zoomers will help shape what the US military looks like over the next few decades, and it’s likely a sign of things to come. Making accommodations and adjustments for the next generation will be necessary for anyone looking to attract talent.

The US military lucked out here too. The areas where Zoomers excel are areas that the military wants to expand into. So it’s kind of a win-win. As long as nothing goes wrong…

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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The Marines Made Some New Toys: Tomahawks on Trucks

Suppose we were taking bets on what’s going to do in China. We’d probably hear about the usual suspects: advanced stages of demographic collapse, failing economic model, or being the country most dependent on open sea lanes and international markets.

All of those are top contenders, but let me throw in a wild card – a bunch of marines in trucks – with four Tomahawks strapped to each truck. I agree if that sounds like a random G.I. Joe creation to you. But this is a relatively new capability for the US, so let me explain how we got here.

Back in the day, the Soviets and the US signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. This kept both sides from developing weapon systems like the one above. If it wasn’t obvious, the Russians have backed away from said treaty.

The lesson here is that if you want to get out of a treaty with the US, that’s fine; just remember that the Americans will also be ditching those restrictions…and the US military has more money, better tech, and will get there faster than you.

And if I was a gambling man, well…

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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