For decades, the Canadian system has been the world’s most friendly to would-be immigrants. But just because the model has worked does not mean it will always work.
Rising trends in national disintegration in the late globalization age haven’t so much swamped the Canadian system, but instead changed the nature of its inward migrants. Increasingly, foreigners have stopped looking to live in Canada, but simply want their money to reside there. That works to a point. That point raises the cost of living in Canada to beyond that of most Canadians, and now Canada is having to at least partially close the door…
…just as Canada needs a fundamentally new social model.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
At its core, my work weaves together the heavy trends of geopolitics and demographics into a tapestry that can be viewed from any number of directions. Most folks in spaces political, economic or strategic tend to gloss over demography. Much to their detriment in my opinion. Yes, decades-long trends take decades to play out, but once they arrive, they have decades of steam behind them and have become absolutely irresistible. Glaciers are boring until they punch you in the face.
So with just a touch of fanfare this holiday season we’re launching an open-ended video series on the guts and glory of all things demographic. We’ll start today with a bit of a what’s-what, before delving into a small army of countries, topics and forecasts.
We’ll begin today with a run through of the demographic patterns of the past several decades so you can take an educated stab at the issues in play.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
The Boomers are the largest generation the world has ever seen. And they’re getting ready to enter retirement en masse. This is going to have incredible impacts on global labor, capital and development. If you enjoy this video, I cover the topic of demographics and the future of, well, everything in depth in my new book The End of the World is Just the Beginning, available everywhere–including your local bookstore.
First things first: labor. As the largest–and longest lasting–component of the American and global labor force in history, the Boomers have had an outsized impact on everything. On wages. On hiring. On how subsequent generations–Gen X and the Millennials–fit into the labor market. Or don’t.
And now they’re retiring. While this leaves members of Gen X as the most skilled labor cadre in the United States, our numbers can’t replace the Boomers. And the Millennials lack the decades of skill to replace Boomer workers.
There’s also the stark reality of capital. Boomers have been earning and investing those earnings for decades. Boomer savings and their general high apetite for risk have seen a flood of capital spread into industries and environments across the world as the price of capital plummeted and its availability increased.
Not anymore. Boomers, like all retirees, favor safe, stable, long-term investments. As they switch from adding to their savings and investment accounts and instead transition to drawing from them in retirement, the Boomers are going to cause as big of a splash leaving the labor market as they did when they jumped in in the 80s..
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with info on how to preorder.
Demography forms one of the cornerstones of how we look at the world. Geopolitics means a lot of things depending on who you ask, but for myself and my team geopolitics at its core is the synthesis of the study of geography, demographics, and economy. That’s not to say things like military prowess, agricultural capability, and more aren’t important. But they’re secondary, in that they are shaped by factors like the quality of arable land and the amount of people you can put into factories or militaries or sell goods to.
Enter this graphic from my upcoming book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning. We have a visual comparison of various historic birth rates for the last 170 years or so. Rises in birthrates, like for the US and Australia through in the 50s and early 60s correspond with the post-war Baby Boom. This is the last peak for most developed countries, who all saw a decline in the number of children born per woman as their respective industrial revolutions took hold and a rural-to-urban societal shift took place.
There are a couple broad trends to note: birthrates across the world–regardless of culture, religion, per capita GDP–have experienced a precipitous decline in recent decades. Egypt is an outlier, as are countries who have accepted significant numbers of immigrants/refugees relative to their population like Germany, Turkey, and Iran.
But the starkest decline is the thick, unbroken line in black. That’s China, and it’s bad.
We’ve had indications for a while now that China was already one of the fastest-aging populations in the world. But with recent revisions of their population data coming to light last year we know that not only are they perhaps the fastest aging population in the world, their birthrate is one of the lowest. Only Spain’s and South Korea’s are lower–and just barely.
When we talk about themes like The End of More in the book, we discuss how the Bretton Woods system allowed countries without the demographic wealth of pre-industrial China to use CCP-subsidized labor as part of globe-spanning supply chains. Chinese labor costs have increased handily in the last decade or two, but there’s more to the Chinese ticking demographic bomb than rising labor costs. China’s population is aging, and elderly people need more capital and labor for their care than young people. They consume less. They produce less. China is going to need more money to care for a growing segment of its population that is increasingly dependent on the state, with less young people to produce and consume the goods manufacturing that is the bedrock of the Chinese economy. Failing to do so would be untenable in any Confucian society that reveres its elders. For a China whose ruling Communist Party’s legitimacy is anchored to upholding a social welfare contract, failure is suicidal.
Which still says nothing about a global manufacturing economy that since the end of the Cold War has had one foot planted firmly in China.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
