Hey, all, happy autumn from Colorado. Peter Zeihan here. Today we are taking a question from the Patreon crowd specifically. Could I take a look at the demographic decline that’s going on today and compare it to past periods where there’s been population collapses, specifically, the Mongol invasion of the 1200s and the Black Death of the 1300s. Okay. 

Great idea. I’m not sure we’re gonna be able to draw too many comparisons here, but I’ll give you my thinking. Which shapes why I’m very circumspect when it comes to specific forecasts based on demographics. The situation we’re in today is because of industrialization. We all started to urbanize, which means we all started to have fewer kids because on the farm, kids are free labor in the city. 

They’re just an expense. And people can do math, which means that over the course of the next ten year period before 2035, about half of the developed world, plus China is basically going to age into an environment where our economics models don’t work anymore, and they’re all looking at some sort of national, civic or economic collapse going to be pretty ugly beyond that. 

So let’s start with the Mongols. Among us were some scary dudes. And when they started rampaging across Asia and getting to the eastern rim of Europe, they had such a reputation that people ran before them literally until they could get to what is today Poland, because in Poland there were forests. And when the Mongols would charge into the forest, they couldn’t really operate as horsemen. 

They had to dismount. And then all of a sudden they were numbered 100 to 1. So Poland was kind of where the line was. And then, we had a government change among the Mongols. It was a clan based structure. And when Big Papa died, all the little boys went back to Mongolia and basically had an argument over who was going to be the next big papa. And that triggered, civil unrest and basically led to the end of the Mongol Empire. 

Later, a few decades, a new government rose on the scene called the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Basically, Poland and Lithuania, had some neighbors, the Latvians, the Germans, whatever. And when they went into those lands, they discovered that there was resistance. 

But if they went east, the lands were almost completely empty. So they started going east, and then they found one another and they had a little spat as expanding empires do. They cut a deal. They formed the Commonwealth, and over the next century they became the largest, most sophisticated political and economic structure that Europe had known to that point. 

So clearing the decks demographically can generate something new and maybe even something wonderful if you can get through the transition. The second example is, if anything, even more poignant. That’s the Black Death. When rats carried by traitors spread bubonic plague. Went throughout all of Europe. 

And based on where you were, either one third of your population died, if you were lucky or maybe even over half, that generated a different sort of transformation. largely because of population dynamics. Even after the Black Plague swept through western and southern Europe, these areas had higher population densities than the lands east of Poland did before the Mongols arrived. So these places suffered hugely. But they weren’t emptied out and what they discovered is to maintain the bones of civilization, much less build something new. 

Nobody had enough skilled labor to handle the metal of the wood or whatever it happened to be. So from the Colonel, survivors of skilled labor, we saw an explosion in training, as everyone had to figure out how to do more with less. That’s another word for technology. And so we triggered the Renaissance, which led in time to the Age of Discovery and ultimately the industrial age. 

So both of these examples are great for showing how demographic collapse isn’t the end. But you have to keep a few things in mind. Number one, it takes some time in the case of, the Mongol invasion, for example, it was roughly 1240, 1242, I think, when the Mongols went home and never came back. Poland, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth wasn’t finalized until like 150 years later. 

So, you know, you’re talking 3 to 5 generations of time where you basically had a lot of empty, the area would have been called something like marches. In the case of the Renaissance and the Black Plague, it was faster because the population wasn’t wiped out, but still, Black Plague hit about 1350. It wasn’t until 1400 that the Renaissance got going, and the Age of Discovery started 50 to 100 years after that. 

But for that to shape the general political environment took a lot longer. During this time, during the dark Ages, which was, you know, at this point, almost 800 years in, it was a horrible system, but it was stable. The most powerful country in the world was Ottoman Turkey, because they had a defensible core in the Sea of Marmara region, and they had access to multiple maritime routes of expansion, the Levant, the Aegean Sea into the Mediterranean, the Black Sea and especially the Danube. 

And they would basically expand down those maritime routes. When the Age of Discovery clashed with the Ottomans, the first time it happenedwas in 1529. You know, it’s a couple centuries after the Black Plague and it was indeterminate. 

In the meantime, you had the Age of Discovery continuing with the Portuguese and eventually the Spanish, discovering the new world, stitching together new routes, the old world technology generally progressing, and it would in time overpower the Ottomans. 

But the high water point for the Ottomans didn’t happen until the late 1600s. And it was another century after that, until you got the revolutions of 1787 that actually broke Ottoman power. And even then, the Ottoman Empire lasted for another 40 years before ultimately dying in World War one takes a lot of time for stable systems to unspool. 

So when you’re using these lessons and looking at our near future, yes, the demographic transition from our point of view is going to be very fast the next ten years, or it’s going to be lightning fast and the collapse of individual systems, we’re going to feel in our bones, but waiting for something that is stable to replace it on the other side. 

That requires inventing new models. Ever since the Age of Discovery, we’ve become inured to this idea that the patterns are permanent for every year except for 1 or 2 of the last 500, the human population has gotten bigger. And because of that, economic models that favor expansion do really well. That’s socialism, capitalism, fascism and communism. But if the population starts to shrink, those models aren’t going to make sense anymore. 

And we’re gonna have to invent something new. And the places that have to deal with that first are the ones where the demographic decline is going to come first and be fastest, and the countries on my list for that, that really matter are Japan, China, Germany and Russia, in no particular order. And if you know anything about the histories of those four countries, when they get insecure, things get a little exciting. 

So I can guarantee you that things are going to change. I can guarantee you that the models which we run our economic systems by are going to be different. What I can’t tell you is when this is going to settle out, because I’m probably not going to be around anymore at that point.

Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from Colorado. Today we’re gonna talk about these Gen Z protests that are bringing down governments, most notably in Nepal and in, Madagascar. And if these are two places that you don’t know much about. You’re not alone. What to keep in mind. Young people protest. Young people bring down governments. 

That’s just part of the math. They have less of a stake in the system. They have less experience, and they don’t see the cost to them as a society, and certainly not personally. Now, once you have kids, once you have a mortgage, once you have something to lose, then you have more of a vested interest in, say, reforming the system rather than overthrowing it. 

And so when you look at youth protests, you have to make sure that there is a youth to protest. So if you dial back to, say, the 1970s, in the 1980s, the most active student protest movements in the world were in, say, South Korea, where there was a large chunk of the population that was under age 30. If you look around the world today, there aren’t a lot of those places left. 

As you industrialize, as you would urbanize, birth rates drop. And so here in the United States, we’re now below replacement levels, while in Europe they’ve been 

below replacement levels for 50 years. Places like India and Mexico and Indonesia, Turkey, they all fell below replacement levels even before the United States did. So when you think of a place that matters because they’re economically large or strategically viable, all of these places have kind of aged out of the protest stage. 

And what’s left are much younger countries where the birthrate is still falling, but there’s still a substantial percentage of the population that’s below age 25. So we see Nepal and Madagascar. We’re seeing Yemen. We will see places like, Nigeria and maybe even Pakistan fall into that category. But for the most of the world, this youth bulge is long gone. 

And so the places where you can or might see youth protests actually change in government structure. They’re becoming fewer and fewer and fewer and places that are less and less important to the wider world.

Hey all, Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from your cemetery park, the northwest part just above Tilden Lake over there. And, it’s chit chat and peek in the back. I’m not sure about that, though. Anyway, taking another question from the Patreon page. 

Aside from China, which has the worst demographics in human history and is looking at societal collapse within a decade. 

What other countries make your top ten list? Let me give you six. How about that? Just one video. The first three, are the countries that industrialized first and urbanized heavily first. And they are Germany, Japan and Italy. 

The situation all three of these countries is that they were among the first countries to pick up the industrial technologies and get what they needed to go into urbanization in a very big way. 

It happened in Germany very, very quickly because Germany used to be a series of a number competing regions. And so when all of a sudden they got electricity and rail, it was very easy for these regions to each set up their own node. They tried to compete with one another a little bit. We had a series of conflicts in the 1800s, and eventually we got the urbanized Germany that led into the world wars, in Japan, very similar. 

The region’s topography is very, very rugged. So as soon as the technologies were available for people to live better, they chose to and they moved into high rises. Italy’s a little different. Italy’s population is concentrated in the Po Valley. And if you remember your Machiavelli, Italy is a series of, again, competing city states. And so once you got the technologies to go up instead of out, everyone did it anyway. 

These three countries, their geographies and their political history is really meshed with industrial technologies. You will notice that all three of these were the axis powers in World War two. That is not a coincidence, because when these countries started to urbanize and industrialize, they got a burst of national power that they used, perhaps unwisely. But that’s not a coincidence. 

Next country down is Korea. Korea is the head of the what they used to call the mix. The newly industrializing countries of East Asia. 

Korea’s geography is a little bit like Japan’s in that it’s very, very rugged. And people live on a few chunks of flat land. And so when industrial technologies came about, you could move from rice farming into a high rise. 

And that was kind of a no brainer for most people. In addition, they had so little land that once they got the industrial technologies, they were able to reclaim land from the seas. And those again went straight up. as a result, with the exception of China, Korea is arguably the fastest aging society in the world now. 

The next two are countries that I’m not worried about now. But if things don’t change, right, I’m going to be worried about them. Very much so in 20 or 30 years. Not that that’s going to be my problem at that point. But anyway, and those are, Brazil and India. Now, these are countries that came late to the game. 

They didn’t really start seriously industrializing until the 1980s, early 1990s. But because the path has been paved and all the technologies have had been invented, they were able to adapt those technologies very, very quickly, urbanize very, very quickly. And so as a result, their birth rates are significantly below the United States at this point. If they keep aging at their current position, they’re not going to enter a Japanese style crisis until like 2070. 

I mean, there’s still a lot of time for this to go a different direction, but we’ve already had 40 years of record low birth rates for both of those large developing countries, and unfortunately, they have not moved up the value added scale like, say, the Germans or the Japanese or the Koreans have in the time that it’s taken them to industrialize. 

So if, if if nothing changes on the birth rate front, those two countries will be looking at, demographic degradation without the attendant increase in technological prowess, skilled labor, or standard of living. So, you know, if you’re in India or if you get in Brazil, chop, chop. You got some work to do. Yeah. That’s top six. 

Okay. That’s it. See you guys on the other side of the lake.