A Mea Culpa, and a Correction

Nobody’s perfect. 

And in this industry, I feel strongly that it’s as important to own up to your mistakes as to highlight your successful forecasts and analyses. In a previous mail out this week, we included a graphic that included a significant bungling of numbers. (The corrected text is highlighted below.)

I would like to thank the readers and followers kind enough to point out the error. The how and why of it aren’t that important, but if you’re curious: as some of you pointed out–and as it stated on the original graphic–the data we used was annualized, and in a rush to publication we misplaced a decimal. Approximately $1.3 trillion/year became $13 trillion. Perhaps this is too much pressure to place upon the narrow shoulders of a humble decimal point. Perhaps I should have better understood the risks in letting an English major do the math while my primary researcher was in Ireland. But here we are, and due to your close readership we’ve been able to amend the graphic. 

Jokes aside, a strong sense of honesty and integrity is vital to our work. We strive to deliver our clients and readers as honest, direct and non-partisan a viewpoint as possible. I am thankful for the continued trust, and the attention you all pay to help keep us honest and accurate.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Pipeline Politics, Maritime Insurance, and Russia’s War in Ukraine

I’m re-sharing a couple of videos from early May to highlight a couple key trends coming to a head: the EU ban on Russian oil imports, and a continuing challenge of indemnification for ships carrying cargoes of Russian goods–oil, stolen Ukrainian grain, etc. 

On the first, it’s taken Europeans months to hammer out an agreement and a timeline–with plenty of caveats–but replacing your largest oil supplier overnight is a considerable feat. But EU leaders came out over the weekend announcing that a general framework had been reached, seeing most of the EU taper off of Russian oil by year’s end. One of the biggest exemptions is Russian crude delivered by pipeline, a necessary boon for landlocked importers like Hungary, and how Russia delivers a third of its oil to Europe.

While it’s easy to be cynical, we should not gloss over the fact that over the next several months the world’s largest economic bloc will be scaling down nearly 70% of its primary fuel source. Moscow is already adding European nations to its “do not sell list,” with the Netherlands joining Finland, Bulgaria and Poland in having to seek workarounds in accessing piped Russian natural gas deliveries. The Dutch have one of Europe’s largest LNG import terminals, and there is a lot of interconnected gas infrastructure to keep supplies moving around in the meantime, but the writing is on the wall. 

For now. 

The EU’s largest customers of Russian energy, Germany and Turkey, will the be ones to watch here. German corporations and labor unions remain opposed to a full German embargo of Russian natural gas and the Turks… well, when it comes to NATO and EU directives and sanctions packages, the Turks are going to do what’s best for Turkey.

Which makes the increasingly difficult time Russian cargoes are having all the more interesting. Private insurance companies, crews, captains, and port workers are simply refusing to cover, load, unload, and give harbor to Russian ships and Russian goods. While the EU is putting together another (the sixth!) sanctions package that will touch on some of these issues, the global shipping industry has shown a remarkable willingness to self-police and oppose Russian participation in regional and global shipping markets. China and India may continue to buy Russian crude (for now), but they’re doing so with state-owned ships and with state-backed insurers underwriting everything. Both economies are far too large to handle all of their goods trade in such a matter, however, and it will be interesting to see if their purchases of heavily-discounted Russian crude oil will be met with any market-driven consequences from the shipping industry. 

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Inflation: the Savings Angle

Between the Ukraine war, supply chain shortages, energy shocks, and government policy that probably spent too much money for too long a period of time, Americans are feeling the pinch of ever-higher inflation on an ever-broadening array of goods. The question is whether Americans can’t afford it.
 
The chart below shows what percentage of their income Americans are socking away – that all-important “savings rate”. During COVID it hit record highs. But now? It has already plunged to pre-COVID lows.

It looks a bit spooky, right? Maybe even a little recessionary? After all, if Americans don’t have a savings buffer, any curveballs – and we seem to be living in world of nothing but curveballs – could cause immense damage.
 
But the chart needs context.
 
It’s one thing for Americans to no longer be saving, it’s quite another when you consider just how much they have already saved. Take a look at this second graphic (below) which stretches back to before the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Whereas the first graphic showed the savings rate (the percentage of income saved), this second one shows savings volume (the actual amount of cash).

Between the Trump and Biden Covid stimulus checks, Americans amassed an extra $13 trillion in savings.
 
So are Americans burning through their savings purchasing goods whose prices keep going up and up and up? Absolutely.
 
But $13 trillion is roughly how much all consumers in the United States spend in ten months. Even in an inflated environment, it will take most Americans two years to burn through the surplus.
 
It doesn’t quite make Americans price insensitive, but it certainly suggests that the current levels of consumption – and by extension current levels of demand-driven inflation – can be with us a lot longer than the headline “savings rate” would suggest.
 
How long? Well, that’s part of what we’ll be going through in our next seminar. We invite those of you who are interested to join us for our upcoming webinar, Inflation: Navigating the New Normal, on June 8th. More information at this link. Unable to attend the webinar live? No problem. All paid registrants and attendees will be able to access a recording of the presentation as well as a PDF of presentation materials.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

China and Taiwan

At the outset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there was significant concern that China would follow with its own invasion of Taiwan. With both Moscow and Beijing moving to secure what they consider breakaway states within days of each other, the United States–months away from its own messy pull out of Afghanistan–would be too caught in a lurch to react to either. 

That obviously didn’t happen. 

It’s not that China is not always considering how it can bring Taiwan back into the mainland’s fold. It’s just a question of what the scope of an invasion would look like, and what sort of consequences the Chinese will be brought to bear. The arithmetic and planning for both have changed sharply in recent months.

If anything, Russia’s bungled invasion of Ukraine showed the Chinese that there’s no quick or easy way to overwhelm a fortified and prepared neighboring state. Consider the fact that the Ukrainians have only really existed as a unified, functional post-Soviet country since the Russian’s first invasion of the Donbas in 2014. Taiwan has been preparing for a potential Chinese invasion for over six decades. 

There’s also the obvious fact that Taiwan is an island. The Russians attempted to slow-roll a land based invasion from Russia and Belarus into Ukraine. China is going to have to move armor, soldiers, supply chains, etc across the Taiwan Strait or by air. En masse. This is something incredibly difficult and costly to do even for the best equipped air forces and navies. China’s remain largely untested. 

And then there is the threat of international reaction. China’s proximity to the world’s most concentrated production hub of high-end semiconductors seems like effective leverage. And to some extent, it is. But China’s workers lack the skillset to design and build the high-end chips Taiwan is known for. And most of the R&D happens in the United States. While Taiwan’s plants would most likely shutter, one should keep in mind that much of China’s most valuable exports–high end electronics, smart phones, etc.–are reliant on these very same chips.

Which brings us to global consequences. The world is not going to take lightly to the Chinese upending the chip supply chain. Nor can China expect to avoid crippling economic consequences. Consider that outside of energy and extracted resources, Russia has not spent most of its post-Cold War life integrating too heavily into the global economy. China is the complete opposite. Whatever difficulties Moscow is facing with Western economic sanctions, China’s pain would undoubtedly be orders of magnitude worse.


We invite those of you who are interested to join us for our upcoming webinar, Inflation: Navigating the New Normal, on June 8th. More information at the sign up link below. Unable to attend the webinar live? No problem. All paid registrants and attendees will be able to access a recording of the presentation as well as a PDF of presentation materials.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

The Bond Market and Inflation

The U.S. Federal Reserve is in the midst of raising interest rates. By raising the cost of borrowing and making debt (money) more expensive, you control spending thereby controlling inflation. 

The United States is currently experiencing the worst inflation crisis in some 40 years. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are the traditional tool in combatting such a problem. 

The challenge of inflation is not America’s alone. Across Europe and Asia, global currencies are seeing inflation drive up the cost of food, fuel, consumer goods, and housing. Unlike the United States, however, most countries’ central banks do not have as direct a course to combat inflation as the Federal Reserve.

A combination of demographic and Russian sanction-related inflationary pressures limit most European nations’ abilities to aggressively raise rates. A population as old and quickly aging as Germany or Italy’s is unlikely to see a bounce back in consumer spending once rates return to zero–where they have been for over a decade. This is a move the Europeans copied out of Japan’s playbook, whose nearly 20 years of near-or-at-zero interest rates are likely to be their foreseeable future.

So what does this mean for bond markets? The U.S. has the demographic strength and economic resilience to keep raising its interest rates, while the rest of the world will be forced to continue issuing bonds at or near zero. Which means their bonds, and ability to borrow, will soon become strongly uncompetitive vis-a-vis the United States.

What does this mean for inflation and the US economy writ large? We invite those of you interested to join us on a webinar that will cover these topics and more in depth on June 8th. More information at the sign up link below. Unable to attend the webinar live? No problem. All paid registrants and attendees will be able to access a recording of the presentation as well as a PDF of presentation materials.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Energy, Currencies and Inflation: Worse for Some

In the worlds of finance, trade, economies, currencies and energy there is a lot going on. We’ve a war in Ukraine that will likely generate the largest oil dislocation in modern history. The global Baby Boomer generation is retiring and taking their money with them, generating the largest financial dislocation in modern history. Presidents Trump and Biden are following the same script on trade issues, generating the largest trade dislocation in modern history. And the Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy in an effort to tamp down inflation.
 
The implications of all these seismic shifts are many and massive. Here’s two of them:
 
Whenever countries are struck by economic shocks – like, say, now – investors look for safer places to stash their money. Less money into tech, more into consumer products. Less money into Brazil, more into Europe. The safest of all safes is the United States, and so the U.S. dollar is on a bit of a tear, rising by roughly 10 percent verses most of the world’s currencies since the beginning of the year.
 
A rising dollar has any number of outcomes, but the one making the biggest splash at the moment is its impact upon energy markets.
 
Oil prices were already rising due to a variety of factors ranging from insufficient investment in new projects over the past several years, to disruptions in trade patterns, to, of course, the Ukraine War. For the United States this is known and obvious. But all commodity trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Oil is no exception. Combine oil’s price rise with a strengthening dollar and much of the world takes a double hit.
 
Brazil’s real has largely kept pace with the U.S. dollar, so this energy hit doesn’t land on Brazilians quite as hard. But Europe and Turkey? Those locales heavily depend upon Russian crude. Not only does that challenge their supply systems, it’s also contributed to the pair’s suffering from significant currency weakness. The end impact? In local currency terms, internationally sourced oil now costs 10-15% more in Europe and Turkey than it does in the United States.

Unfortunately, there is little reason to expect the world’s energy situation to improve within the next half decade, nor is there reason to expect the U.S. dollar to go anywhere but up for years to come. But that is a story for another day.
 
That day is … June 8. That’s when we’ll be hosting our next seminar, Inflation: Navigating the New Normal. You can sign up here.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Energy at the End of the World

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with info on how to preorder.

Here’s something a little different than the usual video updates from us. We typically seek to update your inbox with reactions to global events of consequence (if it seems like there are more of those than usual these days, boy do I have a book for you!).

About a month ago, however, I had to honor of speaking to a group of students at the Dwight D. Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy, a college of the National Defense University. 

I hope this presentation is valuable to those of you who are interested in long-term and more in-depth forecasts and analysis, and those of you who enjoy longer format presentations. My thanks to the Eisenhower School and NDU for sharing this video.

In this presentation I lay out my long-term forecast for global energy, cribbing heavily from the text of my upcoming book The End of the World is Just the Beginning. The book also contains similar long-term forecasts for global finance, agriculture, manufacturing, and transport. We are less than three weeks away from the books release date. Information below on how to pre-order for those of you who wish to support the new book.

As a reminder: the Afya foundation continues to support humanitarian efforts and refugees displaced by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Links below on how to help for those of you who are willing and able.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Tianjin, COVID, and Losing Chinese Labor

Several signs point to THE possibility of Chinese officials instituting at least a partial lockdown of the northern port city of Tianjin as early as this weekend. The largest northern Chinese port, Tianjin is also a city of over 12 million people, and its port is vital for delivering goods–bulk ores, coal, liquid fuels–for the region’s heavy industries and textile manufacturing. 

The Omicron variant has already been detected in the city, notably in the Beichen and Dongli districts, where local health officials mandated localized testing and quarantine restrictions on May 16. Widespread testing through these areas–and the removal of tens of thousands of residents into forced quarantine–now looks like it might spread throughout the city. Local officials have also already gone ahead and identified a scapegoat: imported frozen food products.

What’s a little authoritarian lockdown without some trade nationalism?

Tianjin already experienced a partial lockdown in January of this year. Partial in part due to the city’s vital role as the primary port serving Beijing, and also a domestic concern over optics during the Olympics. As we’ve seen from reports and local social media uploads, the lockdowns at the very least cause an undue amount of stress on local Chinese residents. At their worst, they reveal the ugliest face of an authoritarian regime that uses drones to threaten its citizens who dare to scream out in hunger in the middle of the night.

Beyond the human toll of these lockdowns, the Chinese economy and manufacturing base is increasingly finding itself disconnected from global trade. China’s financial hub of Shanghai is currently in its seventh week of lock-down, the southern port city and manufacturing hub of Guangzhou is under lockdown, more and more districts of the capital city of Beijing are entering a so-called “slow motion” lockdown. If we add in Tianjin, as it increasingly looks like we might, that’s several of China’s largest trading and industrial zones, plus the administrative core, under lockdown.

Even in cases where the government seeks to ease lockdowns for critical manufacturing and port operations, worker shortages in China are causing all manner of delays and supply chain dislocations. Over a hundred ships are waiting off of the port of Shanghai as of writing (Hong Kong and Shenzen have nearly 200). Lest you think that labor issues have been sorted out at Western ports, let me remind you that there is still a wait of over three weeks for ships to dock at the port of Vancouver.

It is hard to overexaggerate the role of the Chinese worker in our current globalized economy, and the impact Chinese labor has had on the post-Cold War system. All of that is going away. In return? Rising labor costs, at a minimum. Assuming you can find the workers. Think inflation is bad now? Just wait.

Nervous? Join us June 8th for a webinar on the global geopolitical environment that will be driving US inflation for years to come. Sign up information at the link below.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Sweden, Finland, NATO, and Turkey

Most NATO members have met Finland and Sweden’s joint application for membership with open enthusiasm. The US, UK, France; even the Italians and Greeks are cheering, in a rare moment of pan-European positivity. 

But not the Turks. Long kept at arm’s reach from EU-membership (including by self-appointed human rights stewards like the Swedes), Ankara is going to savor its ability to make Sweden and Finland’s ascension process be as much about Turkey’s needs as it is about Russia.

The Turks aren’t just being spiteful for spite’s sake.

Turkey and Greece were the first states to gain membership in an expanded NATO in 1952, joining the 12 member nations who formed the bloc in 1949. In addition to being one of the bloc’s longest-standing members, Turkey (not unrealistically) views itself as one of NATO’s most strategic. Its geography, particularly the control of the Turkish Straits, affords Ankara outsized influence over the Black Sea, the Danube Basin, and the Eastern Mediterranean. Ankara also happens to have the bloc’s second-largest army, second only to the United States. Turkey isn’t just cribbing from a Rodney Dangerfield act when it angles for more respect from its supposed Western allies; it is an important partner and now has the geopolitical heft to make sure everybody knows it.

Ankara is also one of a handful of countries around the world that is willing, able, and actively seeking to establish itself as a meaningful regional power. Turkey’s neighborhood (especially along its southern and eastern borders) has always been…spicy. The Turkish state’s long-standing conflict with Kurdish separatists has been an easy target of criticism for its European neighbors. But now Turkey gets to point the finger at countries like Sweden, who it claims is doing too much to encourage Kurdish separatist militias in places like Syria. Ankara is well within its rights to claim how it can be expected to call Sweden its ally, when Stockholm’s actions risk directly threatening the security and stability of the Turkish state.

Turkey also famously straddles Europe and Asia, the Mediterranean and the Middle East. We should not be surprised that a country that shares land borders with Bulgaria and Iran, Greece, Georgia and Armenia has a different worldview than the northern Europeans or Portugal. Or that a country that borders the Syrian Civil War, the remnants of Iraq and an intensifying Azerbaijani/Armenian conflict is going to have different security realities than the land of Ikea, H&M and Volvos. And here we see how one of NATO’s strengths–its size–complicates its ability to move swiftly as a unified bloc.

Is Turkey going to use its veto authority to block Sweden and Finland from joining NATO? I think the more important question is whether or not Sweden and Finland are ready to recognize and respect Turkish security prerogatives as being as legitimate as their own concerns over Russia. 

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Global Energy at the End of the World

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with info on how to preorder.

Former Soviet states supply over 14 percent of the world’s energy. In this graphic from my new book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning, I ask the question: how long can former Soviet Union countries’ oil production last without Western technological assistance? Russia has invaded Ukraine and, just like that, we are going to find out the answer. With both Western oil majors and service companies heading for the door, we are already seeing lowered oil production. At the time of writing, the International Energy Agency forecasts that from May, nearly 3 million barrels a day in Russian production will be turned off.
 
With Russia’s production dimming, the world will look to the Persian Gulf for more oil and gas. Turning to the Persian Gulf, however, is simply swapping one conflict zone for another. Four-fifths of the Persian Gulf’s supply transits the Strait of Hormuz to reach its destination. Piracy can always be an issue. High food and agricultural input costs increase the possibility of social unrest in the region. In short, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine further destabilized an already unstable market.
 
As you can see, NAFTA supplies more gas and oil than it consumes, which is the ideal scenario. On the other hand, Europe, excluding the former Soviet states, cannot domestically satisfy its energy needs and is forced to rely on increasingly unstable import sources. Northeast Asia is in the same, if not more dire, boat. The EU at least has navies large enough to go out and secure its own oil. In Northeast Asia, only Japan has this capability.
 
To learn more on this topic make sure to look out for my upcoming book, which will be released June 14. We encourage those who can to preorder by clicking on the link below.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY