I have admittedly been taking a break from presenting an update on Europe’s energy future, and not just to hike into the wilderness. There are certainly a lot of balls up in the air right now, and we’re seeing policy and supply changes from week to week. But while we don’t know yet what–if any–“fixes” are in the future for Germany and its neighbors, we know where the shortfalls are.
But first, the good news: Germany’s energy storage is 70-80% full. Industrial and residential users are looking to see where they can voluntarily cut back usage. Governments are looking to step in and help customers shoulder expected price increases. Good? Sure. Enough? Ehh…
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When I recorded the first part of today’s video, it was in reaction to news that the Russians were having to turn to Iran of all places to help replace the drones lost in ongoing invasion of Ukraine. That Moscow needs to rely on Tehran for anything should be concerning, but perhaps not in the reasons that immediately come to mind. This move by the Russians does not point to the Iranians expanding membership to the Axis of Evil, or a tacit recognition of their technological superiority.
Rather, Russia’s desperate.
Iran is not an up-and-coming manufacturing power. Nor have they broken some sort of secret code when it comes to drone and UAV technology. They’re certainly not even producing anything comparable to Turkey’s burgeoning military manufacturing sector. But unlike Turkey, Iranian drones are not dependent on Western technological imports. Or even foreign satellites. Whether or not they’ll have the impact the Russians are looking for in Ukraine is debatable, but the state of the Russian production sector has never looked worse.
Which brings us back to the Axis of Evil. No, a skull-shaped headquarters has not emerged from some fetid swamp (but who can be sure what really goes on in New Jersey politics). Rather, the Russians have tapped another unlikely “partner” to help them combat their rapidly depleting ammunition stocks: North Korea. Moscow is set to begin purchases of artillery shells from Pyongyang, a country whose conventional military production capabilities have not been stress-tested since the cessation of armed conflict on the Korean peninsula nearly seven decades ago.
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As long as I’m slaying sacred cows, let’s make sure I don’t miss anything: the border wall has been the biggest boon of the last 50 years to illegal migrants, COVID has made large-scale immigration an economic necessity, and Trump/Biden policies towards immigration are one of the three largest sources of inflation today.
Yeah, that should piss some people off.
We have never and will never charge for our newsletters or videos, but we do have an ask. If you enjoy our products, we ask you consider supporting MedShare by clicking one of the links below. MedShare is an established non-profit organization that helps respond to medical need globally, including to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.
I hate COVID so very, very much. Not only has it (bizarrely) become a new third rail in American politics, but its international nature has also accelerated many global trade and diplomatic disputes which were already dissolving the globalized era. The virus hasn’t simply robbed us of lives, but also of time. And as I say repeatedly in multiple contexts in my new book – The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization – time is the most valuable thing we have.
There are any number of aspects of COVID that are worth discussing, but I’m attempting to stick to my tried-and-true approach of pissing off everyone. Vaccines and natural immunity are not the same, but they are also not consistent. COVID is a moving target.
Luckily, the most recent ammo in the fight against COVID – the Omicron-specific booster – was just approved for use in North America and Europe. By the time you’re reading this text it should be shipping out to pharmacies. It should be available before the end of September!
Note: I misspoke at about 2:55: I should have said something like “We know from data that the vaccines worked better than natural immunity against Delta and Omicron B, but we also know that natural immunity worked better than vaccinations against Omicron A.” (I accidentally mentioned Omicron B twice. I don’t backpack with fact-checkers. My bad.)
We have never and will never charge for our newsletters or videos, but we do have an ask. If you enjoy our products, we ask you consider supporting MedShare by clicking one of the links below. MedShare is an established non-profit organization that helps respond to medical need globally, including to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.
We are seeing a tremendous amount of arms and technology flowing into Ukraine from NATO members, Sweden and Finland. This amounts to one of the greatest transfers of tech and materiel since the collapse of the Cold War. But the arms purchases and transfers aren’t just happening from NATO to Ukraine, but amongst NATO members as well.
This sort of large-scale purchasing and upgrading of Europe’s militaries is going to have a profound impact on the continent, well beyond Russia’s current conflict with Ukraine.
We have never and will never charge for our newsletters or videos, but we do have an ask. If you enjoy our products, we ask you consider supporting MedShare by clicking one of the links below. MedShare is an established non-profit organization that helps respond to medical need globally, including to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.
In the new book –The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization– I dive into any number of the implications of a country’s hydrological cycles and access. Everything from its ability to interact with the wider world to its military posture to its financial strength to what foods it can (and cannot) grow.
Today we’re going to talk about something much more straightforward: moving the stuff. In many ways water is the worst! It’s low value. It’s bulky. It sloshes. It is among the most difficult of things to move en masse. And yet and yet and yet it is absolutely essential to the human condition. Have water? You can be something special. Don’t have water? History is just itching to forget about you.
Which has direct implications for the Ukraine War.
We have never and will never charge for our newsletters or videos, but we do have an ask. If you enjoy our products, we ask you consider supporting MedShare by clicking one of the links below. MedShare is an established non-profit organization that helps respond to medical need globally, including to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.
Kyiv announced a counteroffensive against Russian positions around the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson earlier this week, aimed at liberating the strategic oblast’s capital. Russian forces have been in control of the city and most of the region since early in the war.
Situated along the Dnieper River, the region is proximate to some of Ukraine’s most strategic geography and infrastructure; at the moment the most strategic of that infrastructure are the bridges crossing the Dnieper, which brings us to the topic of the day. The difficulties Russia is experiencing in moving troops and materiel across the Dnieper are exactly the sort of trouble Soviet planners wanted to give any would-be Western invaders looking to move east. (They really didn’t plan on Kyiv moving out from under Moscow’s thumb.)
Ukrainian forces have made good use of training and Western arms supplies, particularly American HIMARS, to weaken and in some cases destroy much of this infrastructure. Which creates several interesting possibilities should the Ukrainians prove successful in pushing the Russians back…
We have never and will never charge for our newsletters or videos, but we do have an ask. If you enjoy our products, we ask you consider supporting MedShare by clicking one of the links below. MedShare is an established non-profit organization that helps respond to medical need globally, including to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.
After an adventure that included harrowing high altitude crossings, brushes with forest fires, a pulled hamstring, and some really good wine, I have returned from my annual detox trip. But before I start laying down some brainwork, I thought it best to make an introduction.
We at Zeihan on Geopolitics are happy to share our thoughts with you on global events–in video format and our newsletters–free of cost. We have always done so free of cost, and will continue to do so in the future. But for those of you who are interested and able, we do ask that if you find our content informative and useful to please join us in supporting various charities.
For the remainder of 2022, we have elected to support MedShare. MedShare is a longstanding charity with global reach, delivering medical supplies and training to communities in need. Their mission addresses both chronic need and crisis response. We have provided links to both their general operations and Ukraine-specific funds below, and you can here their profile on Charity Navigator here.
The latest jobs report–published August 5–showed that the United States added over half a million new jobs in the month of July. Unemployment is at or a near a 50-year low. Both points add credence to a growing number of economists who are pushing back against the claim that the US economy is official in a recession, despite recording negative economic growth two quarters in a row (the textbook definition of a recession).
Confused?
You’re not the only one. The economy is contracting, albeit not by much, but consumer spending is near an all-time high. Unemployment is an all-time low. Manufacturing employment is up. The finance sector, less so. And yet inflation remains a persistent bugbear. What is clear, however, is that the old rules about how our economy works no longer apply.
And finally, a small programming note: I’m spending the next month hiking and backpacking throughout the portions of the American West. We’ll pick up with more content and more regular dispatches the first week of September.
Turkish and UN diplomats have spent the last several weeks trying to forge a deal between Ukraine and Russia that would see Kyiv’s embargoed wheat be able to reach ports around the world. There have been several challenges facing Ukraine’s exports, not the least of which is the fact that Kyiv mined many of its own seaways in an attempt to stymie hostile Russian naval activity in the region.
This week marked the first shipment of grain under a newly forged agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and while many are hopeful the deal will facilitate greater global grain supplies there are a few reasons to remain skeptical.
