Peter Zeihan, Author at Zeihan on Geopolitics

The Ukraine War, Assassinations, and Artillery

The Ukrainian military has enjoyed an outsized amount of success when it comes to successfully finding–and eliminating–a variety of high-value Russian targets. The Ukrainian military did not have a reputation of hitting above their weight before the Russians invaded this past February, nor do we think of them as the kinds of technical wunderkinds to quickly build up indigenous signals and targeting intelligence capabilities.

Which means they’re probably getting some help.

A constellation of various American military and civilian officials have spoken openly about the United States’ intelligence sharing relationship with the Ukrainians, either while testifying before the US Congress or directly with the media. They typically frame the intelligence sharing as necessary for helping to keep Ukrainian civilians safe, or giving the government in Kyiv a heads up about Russian intentions.

There’s little evidence to believe that this represents the full scope of intelligence sharing.

Not the least of which is the growing list of Russian generals and military commanders who keep ending up dead. Or the absolutely stunning amount of Russian planes, tanks, armored personnel carriers, rocket launchers and ships (including the flagship of the Black Sea fleet) that the Ukrainians have successfully eliminated. We should give credit where credit is due. The Ukrainian military and volunteers are by all accounts a highly motivated bunch. It is not easy to metabolize new weapons systems, training and tactics–especially against a larger force.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Maritime Insurance, Russia, and the Ukraine War

Europe is moving rapidly toward enacting an embargo against Russian crude oil. One of the main enforcement mechanisms will likely be denying maritime insurance coverage to ships carrying Russian crude to European ports.

We’ve already seen many ship captains and crews avoiding loading at Russia’s Black Sea oil terminals out of a fear for their own physical safety–the Iran/Iraq war provides a good historical analogue for the risks to tanker ships in an active war zone. But Russia’s Baltic and Pacific ports aren’t seeing a lot of activity either, as many global buyers are looking to stay on the right side of a quickly evolving sanctions regime.

Which brings us back to the world of maritime insurance. Some 95% of global insurance and reinsurance markets are dominated by European players. Would-be buyers of Russian crude who could leverage sovereign indemnification of Russian cargoes–China and Turkey, potentially India–must now weigh the worth of crude discounts against falling afoul of the Europeans and access to their markets.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Russia’s Military Strategy, and the Afya Foundation

The Russian military has abandoned any hope of local Ukrainians viewing them as welcome liberators or Slavic cousins. And so too has the Russian military abandoned any pretense of trying to limit civilian casualties. Russian military strategy in Ukraine–decried early on as a logistical quagmire and proof of Moscow’s status as a paper tiger–created one set of lessons for the Americans and other backers of Ukraine’s army (something we’ve touched on here).

But the changing strategic landscape has created another set of lessons for Russia’s military itself. Moscow is now moving decidedly toward eliminating civilian infrastructure and, increasingly, civilians themselves. As of writing, nearly half of Ukraine’s population are now refugees, internally displaced, or trapped in place under active fire. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has quickly become the largest mass refugee event in human history.

To that end, we would like to both remind our followers that we are working to bring attention to aid groups like the Afya Foundation, as well as thank all of your for the incredible generosity and commitment you have already shown. The Afya Foundation works to deliver donated medical supplies from the United States directly to refugees in and around the Ukrainian conflict. As the Russian military continues to escalate its targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure, Afya is working with medics and other volunteers to deliver necessary medical supplies within Ukraine.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Russia’s Natural Gas Strategy

Moscow has begun limiting natural gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria as Russia seeks to increase energy pressure on Europe. Ostensibly these moves are to encourage European buyers of natural gas to pay their bills in rubles. But Russia has a longer-term goal in mind.

Many private players within Germany, Austria and Hungary especially are lobbying their respective governments to allow them to continue doing business with Russia in rubles, hoping to sidestep sanctions.

Why cut gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland? Both have older infrastructure linkages to Russia dating back to their status as former members of the Soviet Union. Both also serve as transit states to downstream customers. Russia can limit gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria without hurting primary consumers–and significant trade partners–in places like Germany, Austria and Hungary. Russia is also betting that Bulgaria and Poland will tap newer gas transit lines to distribute within their networks, which will then allow Moscow to pursue a variety of legal remedies against the two EU states.

This is all being done with an eye of exacerbating the considerable EU and NATO cohesion that has seen a broad constellation of political, economic and military support for the Ukrainians since the Russian invasion began. Even if Europeans are broadly supportive of Ukraine conceptually, the Russians know that when the rubber hits the road (or more bluntly, if the natural gas doesn’t flow), Berlin and Vienna and Budapest will prioritize local economic and energy concerns over an abstract sense of supporting democracy in Ukraine.

All of this to a point, though. The Europeans are showing many signs of shaking off decades of inertia and wishful thinking when it comes to finally doing the hard work of weaning off Russian energy. We see this most clearly when it comes to updating oil transport infrastructure. Russia needs to move quickly before buyers like Germany can easily source alternative crude supplies, and before its own fields must be shut-in due to a lack of buyers. Which makes natural gas the last strategic link. Moscow must walk a narrow line between applying enough pressure to break the European alliance, but not so much that Germany and its neighbors become convinced to sever its energy dependencies on Russia.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Russia’s Challenges in the Ukraine War

Russia and its military have lagged considerably behind the Ukrainians in several categories: logistics, communications, and especially in metabolizing and deploying new technology, such as drones. It is especially in this latter instance where Kyiv has shown a remarkable nimbleness over Moscow.

But the battle is now shifting to an artillery tit-for-tat in eastern Ukraine, where Stingers and short-range drones will be less useful for the Ukrainians. It is also exactly the kind of battle that the Russians have trained for, and is why I believe my overall assessment will still hold: that the Russians will ultimately overrun the Ukrainians, especially as the conflict moves past May.

Russia’s lagging technological prowess has several historical analogues. One of the best known is the Battle of Crimea, a battle that Russia ultimately lost. The outcome isn’t what I want to highlight here, but rather that Russia spent years and roughly half a million lives until it surrendered. In conflicts that Russia deems necessary to its survival–against Napoleon, the Brits and the French, the Germans, Hitler–the Russians will fight until they simply cannot fight any longer. Do not expect the current war in Ukraine to be any different.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Greentech and the End of the World

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with info on how to preorder.

Much of the angst in geopolitics since 1950 has been about oil. The Americans promised their allies a safe, globalized economy. That required not only sourcing the oil, but then ensuring it could be transported to where it was consumed. And so the Americans by default had to guarantee both freedom of the seas and a degree of stability in the Middle East.

Looking back, the geopolitics of oil have proven to be surprisingly…straightforward. Oil exists in commercially accessible and viable volumes in only a few locations. We might not like the challenges of such locations, and those challenges may have absorbed an outsized chunk of everyone’s attention in the late-industrial and globalization eras, but at least we are familiar with them. You think that “moving on from oil” will put this issue to bed?

Just wait.

In “moving on from oil” we would be walking away from a complex and often-violent and always critical supply and transport system, only to replace it with at least ten more. A world in which we “electrify everything” requires an order of magnitude more copper and lithium and nickel and cobalt and graphite and chromium and zinc and rare earths and silicon and more. Take a peek at the graphic below from the industrial materials chapter of my upcoming book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning.

We won’t “simply” be dealing with Russia and Saudi Arabia and Iran; we will all need to engage regularly with Chile and Bolivia and Brazil and Japan and Italy and Peru and Mexico and Germany and the Philippines and Mozambique and South Africa and Guinea and Gabon and Indonesia and Australia and Congo and China and, oh yeah, still Russia.

The future is darker, and less green, than you think.

Ukraine’s Geography and Economy

In many ways, Ukraine’s geography largely mimics that of the American Midwest: a broad swath of highly productive agricultural land with a largely navigable river running through it. In the United States, the Mississippi delivers the bounty of the Midwest to the port of New Orleans on the Gulf of Mexico. In Ukraine, the Dnieper flows to the Black Sea where it empties at the port of Kherson. Kherson should be a familiar name to those of you who have been following Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, given the Russian military’s efforts to capture the city. Geography helps give an understanding of its significance.

Ukraine’s historic ability to grow surplus crops and deliver them via river to the Black Sea should not be overlooked. The Black Sea, and especially the Turkish Straits, affords Ukraine a considerable advantage over much of Russia: the output of its primary productive geographies enjoys relatively easy access to global ports. Ukrainian grain–and oilseeds, and coal, and metals, and so on–can in normal times reach international ports and thus link Ukraine to a globalized economy.

Not so for Russia. The Russians’ primary river, the Volga, empties into the Caspian Sea which unlike the Black Sea has no access to global maritime trade. The Volga is also prone to spectacular cycles of freezing, and flooding, and ice damming. Russian economic development largely stalled until the 19th century, when Moscow was able to develop rail networks to the Baltic Sea and Black Sea (also why so much of Russian imperial history focused on securing the Caucuses and Crimea; access to the Black Sea and ports beyond was [and still is] critical for Russia’s economic survival).

Ukraine represents the best-situated, most productive piece of Russia’s former Soviet empire, and the one that could most easily integrate with the West, and beyond. Which is why control over Ukraine has been so central to Russian imperial strategy for centuries, and why I fear future Russian military action will focus on destroying Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and economy.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Agriculture At the End of the World

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with info on how to preorder.

Is climate change important? Absolutely. But that doesn’t mean we’ve cracked the code. Consider this excerpt from my upcoming book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning:

Our capacity to forecast climate impacts tends to be embarrassingly off. The best recent example is the United States in mid-2021. A high-pressure system locked some warm air over the Pacific Northwest. Some of that air then descended from the Cascades, triggering compression effects. The result? Normally cloudy, rainy, grungy locales mutated into open ovens for weeks. Portland, Oregon, repeatedly clocked temperatures above 120 degrees. I’ve seen many climate models that suggest the inevitability of hotter deserts or a hotter American South, but none have projected that Portland—freakin’ Portland—would end up being hotter than Las Vegas has ever been. The reason for such a fundamental miss is simple: we do not at present have good enough data to project climate change down to the zip code level.

We’ve obsessed somewhat narcissistically upon how climate shifts might impact cities, and our data simply isn’t good enough to generate reliable forecasts. Instead, we should focus on the far easier math of climate shifts upon continent-spanning climate bands. Not so useful for determining house insurance rates, but critical to understanding what we can grow.

Check out the below map from the agriculture chapter of The End of the World. We sometimes forget that most of the Earth’s land surface is unsuitable for growing crops, and even much of what is is not particularly great. It doesn’t take much of a climate nudge to push marginal lands into the “unsuitable” category. And nudging is certainly happening. For decades, shifts in wind currents have been tweaking regional weather patterns. Simply continuing such long-established patterns for another 30 years will have outsize impacts upon agriculture. Almost everywhere.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

The End of the World: Colombia

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with info on how to preorder.

Globalization peaked at some point in the 2010s, a decade when global populations were in balance, security for transport was a non-concern, and there was sufficient capital to finance anything and everything. But between COVID and a trio of populist American presidents and the Ukraine War and rapidly aging populations, the world is moving on. Or arguably, it is reverting to something similar to what existed before large-scale global trade.

Such (d)evolutions will benefit and harm any number of countries. The NAFTA trio of Canada, the United States and Mexico will certainly do well. Collectively, the three check all the boxes: limited security concerns, ample energy and refining capacity, massive agricultural surpluses, in-place infrastructure, and the world’s most balanced demographics.

But perhaps the country that will benefit most in relative terms isn’t even in North America: Colombia. Energy self-sufficient? Check. Proximate to the North American market? Check. Broadly educated population? Check. Great labor cost-points? Check.

Colombia’s biggest weakness is its local geography. Most of the population lives on the slopes of its V-shaped mountain ranges. That necessitates significant infrastructure to push goods up and down the elevation bands. Check out the below graphic from the manufacturing chapter of my upcoming book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning.

Normally, such rugged topography would be a deal-killer, and indeed in the globalized era Colombia’s value-added manufacturing sector hasn’t been…great. But the global economic geography is changing. Traditional manufacturing centers like China are imploding, would-be replacements like India are a world unto themselves, while Mexicans have become so skilled that they are no longer competitive at the lower skilled work that once dominated the maquiladoras of the US-Mexican border. To put it bluntly, Mexico now needs a Mexico, and Colombia is by far the best candidate.

A Recording Studio Update…

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with info on how to preorder.

Hello from the studio! I am in the midst of recording the audiobook version of my upcoming book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning. For those of you wondering – and asking – if I would be narrating the audiobook, the answer is yes. More important, given the increase in our subscriber base over the past couple of weeks I would like to remind everyone that we are currently donating all proceeds from all formats of all my books until June 1 to the Afya Foundation. The number of Ukrainian refugees who have fled the country is now in excess of 6 million people, as well as an additional 6 million internally displaced people. The Afya Foundation is an American non-profit organization working to link medical supplies with Ukrainian refugees in need. More information on them and how to donate directly below.

And for those of you who are new, or are interested in our ongoing coverage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we’ve included a list of links of our coverage from the beginning of the Ukraine war to know under the video below as well.

Thanks for joining us, we’re happy to have you!

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

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April 15, 2022:
RUSSIA’S BLACK SEA BLUNDERS

April 12, 2022:
WHEN FOOD AND FUEL CRISES MEET

April 12, 2022:
RUSSIA, RUBLES AND GOLD

April 7, 2022:
THE MYTH OF JUSTIFIED RUSSIAN RETALIATION

April 4, 2022:
NUKES, MASSACRES, AND PREPARING FOR THE NEXT WAR

April 4, 2022:
ODESSA, AND THE UKRAINE WAR

March 29, 2022:
RUSSIA’S WAGNER GROUP AND THE UKRAINE WAR

March 24, 2022:
RUSSIA’S PIPELINE GAMBIT

March 23, 2022:
RUSSIAN REFINERIES’ REDUCED RUNS WRECK…EVERYTHING