Let’s Talk Turkey

Flag of Turkey being flown in front of a building

There’s been a lot of movement in Turkey’s neck of the woods, so the Turks have had to change their stance on several issues. Given Turkey’s strategic positioning and importance, expect huge regional implications.

Turkey has said it will intervene with grain shipments regardless of what Russia does. Turkey won’t operate as Russia’s middleman anymore, meaning the Turks won’t be the weak link in NATO’s chain. Turkey gave Sweden the green light to join NATO. That’s not even scratching the surface of the issues Turkey has faced.

The Sea of Marmara and eastern Thrace are some of the world’s richest chunks of agricultural land. They also happen to be surrounded by regional trading routes. Turkey will be a significant regional player if it continues to hold these areas. But there are limits to the power this gives them…

While Turkey can project a great deal of power, it can’t be done everywhere. Choosing where to focus will be done through careful evaluation of the neighborhood; given the constant change in this region, it would be foolish not to expect Turkey’s strategy to adapt and evolve regularly.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

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TRANSCIPT

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from just below James Peak in the James Peak Wilderness. Today we’re going to talk Turkey. There’s been a lot of motion in that part of the world in the not too distant past, in the lead up to the NATO’s summit in Vilnius, during the summit and days after in the lead up to the NATO’s summit in Vilnius, during the summit and days after in the lead up to the NATO’s summit in Vilnius, during the summit and days after the Turks have changed their positions on a number of significant issues with huge regional implications. So just a quick rundown. The Turks have said that they’re going to intervene

in green shipments coming out of Ukraine. Now, there has been a deal that the Russians, Ukrainians and the U.N. have agreed to that allows Ukrainian grain to leave Ukrainian ports and not get shot at by Russian ships as long as the Russian ships can inspect the ships on the way in and on the way out to make sure that they’re not engaged in any sort of smuggling. The Russians have been backing away from that agreement and it’s basically done at this point. The Turks are no longer serving as a middleman for a lot of financial transfers and good transfers from the rest of the world to Russia.They have traditionally, I should say during the war to this point, they have been the weak spot in the NATO wall, if you will. And anything that the West used to sell to Russia or something that’s under sanctions would be sold to Turkey first and forwarded on to the Russians in violation of the sanctions, or at least to an end run. But they’re no longer doing that. In addition, the Turks gave the green light so that Sweden can join NATO. They’ve been blocking that now for over a year and all of a sudden it just evaporated. Now, there are a lot of people talking on the West about how the Turks are back in the club.Both of those statements are at best premature, but they’re probably just completely wrong and the reason is that the Turks are their own thing. Now, unlike the Western world or the Russian world, with a very clear geography that binds everyone together, the Turks have their own the Sea of Marmara region and Eastern Thrace are one of the richest chunks of agricultural land in the world. It’s got a navigable waterway system, and it straddles a number of regional trade routes. So the Turks are always going to matter. Whoever controls this area is always a going to be a significant regional power, iif not a global power. But this area is not endless. This is not the American Midwest, something that allows the United States to project power globally. This is a zone that is bracketed by a number of other regions that all matter. The Agean, the Caucasus, southern Ukraine. The Crimean Peninsula. The Balkans. Mesopotamia. The Levant. The Turks can project and do project power into all of these regions. But the Sea of Marmara region is not sufficiently powerful to give the Turks the ability to project in all of them. And so Turkish foreign strategic policy has always been about making choices, and that means they have to evaluate their neighborhood on a case by case basis, and those evaluations have to be updated from time to time. Well, if you go back to ten or 15 years ago, we had the start of the Syrian civil war, and the Turks were very upset with the entire Western coalition because of the war and what had led to it. The Turks didn’t want to see an independent Kurdistan, but the Americans relied upon the Kurds of northern Iraq in order to fight part of the war against Saddam Hussein

and with the Syrian civil war. You had, again, a Kurdish enclave, northeast Syria, that basically existed under western de facto sponsorship. There were also spats with the Israelis

to a degree backed by the United States and the Europeans. And so the Turks entered into a period where they found it easier to project power south into areas where the Americans

and the Europeans were not being very successful. In that sort of environment, There is a softness in relation with the Russians because the Russians were perceived at the time as being a bit on a roll. And so the Turks found it easier to accommodate the Russians

rather than to stand against them. Well, in the last year and a half, a whole lot of things have changed. Number one, the Americans are losing interest in Iraq and to a lesser degree, Syria, meaning that the de facto sponsorship of the Kurds has weakened quite a bit. The Russians have shown themselves to be not nearly as impressive as they look like they were. And with the Ukrainians doing better, better and better day by day by day. The Turks are wondering whether or not it’s really worth the effort, especially in the face of strong American opposition. During and leading up to the summit, the Biden administration and from the very top we’re talking here, the president and Secretary Yellen, the treasury secretary, made it very clear to the Turks what would happen to their banks if they continued serving as middlemen for the Russians. And since then, many of those banks are linked to the ruling party. That message was taken loud and clear. So the costs and benefits have changed. And all of a sudden the Turks are looking at this in a different light. So all of a sudden the South is not wide open and open to fissures that they can exploit. Suddenly, relations with the Israelis are a little bit better. Suddenly the Turks are evaluating the Russians from a different point of view and seeing them as perhaps the weak spot in their periphery these days. And so we’ve seen a lot of changes. And of course, with the summit, everyone was together and everyone had to have these conversations in real time. As regards to the United States negotiations about the transfer of F-16s to Turkey were off the table  because there were concerns they were going to be used against the Kurdish minority or against countries that the United States really didn’t with the Turks going to war with. All of a sudden, that’s back on the docket. The Canadians had restarted negotiations on drone transfers, military technology to help make drones. Now, these are the same drones that the Turks have been transferring to Ukraine over the last year and a half. But the reason the Canadians had had an embargo on it is because two years ago, the Turks had transferred them

to the Azerbaijanis in their war with Armenia, all of a sudden everyone’s getting along again

and we’ll probably see some warming in relations between the Europeans and the Turks as well on a number of issues that deal with the visas, the migration, everything else. Anyway, the bottom line of all of this isn’t so much that Turkey has flipped. It’s that Turkey’s evaluation of its neighborhood changes regularly based on the strength, the power, the accession or the fall of every country in their region. And in the last two years, we’ve had a massive shift in the power balance and it would be strange to think that the Turks would not adjust accordingly. Now, winners and losers, it all depends upon who you are and what you care about. Obviously, the West broadly is pleased with the direction that the Turks are going right now, and there’s reason to believe that this has some legs. But if you’re on the other side of the equation, especially if you’re in interest of the Russians, all of a sudden this is really scary. So, for example, Armenia, Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijanis are ethnically Turkic. The Turks consider them their ethnic brothers and their friends. Armenians, on the other hand, are the complete opposite. And now that you’ve got countries like Canada saying, It might be okay for you to use your weapon systems in the

Armenia – Azerbaijan conflict. If you are Armenia in many ways this is the worst of all worlds, an Azerbaijan that is coming high off of the last war win. A turkey That’s probably going to start shipping weapons in mass again. And a Russia who has been your security guarantor

who all of a sudden is up to its eyeballs in a problem that it can’t solve in Ukraine. Things like this are going to be shaking out across the entire region as the larger geopolitics evolves. Okay. That’s it. 

Russia Terminates the Black Sea Grain Deal

Russia announced on Monday that the Black Sea grain deal will not be extended. This initiative has enabled Ukraine to export agricultural products through Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea; however, Ukrainian exports are only at a fraction of pre-war levels.

The termination of the grain deal should sound alarm bells for everyone. As one of the world’s largest grain exporters, Ukraine has played a vital role in feeding the world’s population. With exports already limited, the end of this deal will likely spark widespread shortages, price increases, and famine.

So why did Russia terminate the deal? Reports from the Kremlin state that not all conditions outlined in the deal had been met, so the agreement ceased to be valid. Admittedly, I’m a bit surprised that the intermittent coordination between Kyiv and Moscow lasted this long…and that’s before we even look at the Kerch Strait Bridge being attacked (again) on the eve of this deal’s expiration date.

Speaking of the recent attack, we’ll have an update on the Kerch Strait Bridge as soon as I can upload the video from the mountain tops here in Colorado.

To give you a refresher on the Black Sea Grain Deal and some context on how we got here, the video below contains my thoughts from August 2022 and March and June of 2023.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

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Let’s Talk California

California has been one of the most successful states in the US, primarily because of things outside its control. Large-scale inward international immigration has enabled California to continue its population growth. The millennial desire for an urban coastal experience has brought a constant influx of people in their 20s and 30s, which has helped with taxes and a steady labor force. Now combine all these people with a rich capital environment and boom…Silicon Valley.

Ideas flow from the tech startups in the valley to factories in China, Japan, Taiwan, etc., making California the gateway to East Asia.  And when those products get imported back to the States, their first stop is the Long Beach Port along CA’s coast. This is just another external element contributing to California’s solid economic model.

But now, all of the factors that have propped up California are flipping. Immigration is stalling. The capital situation is upside down. The cost of living is through the roof, so the labor force is moving to places like Texas. Rising tensions with Asia are causing reshoring and nearshoring. The only thing California can do now is reinvent itself.

Whether they can do it or not is a discussion for another video…

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

TRANSCIPT

Hey Everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from my home in Colorado. I’m in the process of packing up for an extended backpacking trip, so I am going to be mostly out of pocket for the remainder of the summer. We’ve recorded a couple dozen videos already and I’ll still be recording things while I’m out, but I’m probably not going to be able to comment on events of the moment because I will be out of reach and able to access news indefinitely, unable to upload a video on a regular basis.

We still aim to man the newsletter to at least the tune of three or four per week, however, so plenty of content you may have noticed. The world’s a mess right now. Plenty of things to talk about, even if they’re not about events that have boiled up in the last 24 hours. And so I want to give you a kind of an idea of what some of those videos might look like.

And so this one is on California. Now, California has been one of the most successful economic cases in the United States for the last four decades, for a mix of reasons that are largely beyond the control of California. So the first one is immigration. Natural population growth, even among migrants in California has been negative for some time, and it has only been with large scale, inward international migration that Camilla, for you, has continued to grow in terms of population, want to the millennials.

One of the things that we saw when the millennials came of age in the 2000 and the 20 tens is they wanted an urban coastal experience. And California, L.A., San Francisco were some of the big beneficiaries of that. So you’ve got millennials going from the middle of the country to the coasts. And L.A. thrived in that sort of environment.

It was still not enough to overcome an internal population decline. But having this constant influx of people in their twenties and then later in their thirties really helped with tax rates, really helped with the labor force. You put these two things together and then you apply the third factor, which is capital availability, and you get a very different economic model.

One of the things to remember about capital availability is it’s determined by the number of mature workers you may have used to be the rest of the population. Basically, when you’re your twenties and your thirties, you’re borrowing a lot to fund consumption for college, for raising kids, for buying homes and whatnot. That capital comes from people who are in their late forties to early sixties where the kids have gone away and they’re at the height of their earning experience, but their expenses have gone down.

So that has been the baby boomers since roughly 1990. And it’s generated a capital environment that’s been wonderful. This has been great for economic development, for a lot of regions, a lot of states, a lot of countries. But in California, when it came together with those millennials that were influencing, we got the tech sector because what is technology except imagining things that don’t yet exist?

And in order to make the future happen, you need two things. Number one, you need a huge number of people in their twenties, in their thirties, to do the imagining and to do the design, to make the prototype, to figure out how to operationalize it. But that entire process from idea to operationalization, that generates no income. And so you have to have a lot of cheap capital to pay those people and to pay for the work.

Well, that has been the environment in California for the last 25 years. And so we get Silicon Valley. And then fourth and finally, California has been the gateway to the United States from East Asia in two ways. Number one, California, with the tech sector, with all of that imagining, has designed new processes that could be applied to new manufacturing in new, new locations, whether that’s Japan, Korea, China, Vietnam or the rest.

And so part and parcel of the American de-industrialisation process under globalization has been made possible by the ideas generated in Silicon Valley. And then California makes money on the other side of things because as these products are coming back into the United States, a lot of them go through the port of Long Beach. So California is the first landfall.

Well, folks, all four of these trends that have made California. California have now flipped. The American political system, both left and right, has turned anti-immigration. People forget that the most anti-immigrant group in the country is first and second generation Mexican-Americans who see themselves of having crossed the right way. And everyone else needs to stay on the other side of the border in California.

Populations of Hispanics coming in from the South has been the single largest sort that has now turned flat to negative. In fact, overall migration from the south across the border to the north has been flat to negative for 17 years. It’s just it’s only now hit California. Number two, the capital situation has changed dramatically. The baby boomers are no longer mature workers.

They’re majority retired. So capital costs have gone up by about a factor of five in the last six months. They’re probably going to go up by a similar amount in absolute terms over the course of the next year and a half, which means Silicon Valley in its current form has been totally screwed by the lost capital and now the lack of people.

The millennials are no longer in the age group where they’re seeking those formative experiences. They may be late to the party six years later than most generations to this point so far. But they are doing all of the normal things now getting married, having kids, buying homes, and none of them want to do it in California. And so they’re moving out of California, back to the states that they’re from or to places that have brighter economic horizons for example, Texas.

And that’s why we see Texas grabbing more seats in the Electoral College of California’s extent, because the millennials are no longer benefiting California on a net basis. They’re moving away. And then finally, there’s Asia. The Chinese system is arguably in terminal decline. There are demographics of beyond atrocious higher capital costs globally make it difficult for companies to justify fresh investment outside of their home.

Domiciles. Trade tensions are forcing near shoring and reshoring, and the Chinese themselves are now entered into kind of a narcissistic political system that is ossified and incapable of making long term decisions or plans. That is weakening the case for exports from the East Asian sphere to the United States. California is the loser for all four of these trends.

And just as all four of these trends owed nothing in the original development in the seventies, eighties and nineties to anything done in Sacramento. Same with end. So California is going to have to reinvent itself. It’s going to have to come up with a new economic model that doesn’t require cheap capital and ample labor and international connections and high IT development.

It’s going to have to do something new, whether it can. Well, that’s a question for a different video.

Strategic Win for NATO: Sweden Joins the Ranks

Hello from Bison Peak in Colorado. By the time you see this, the knot should be tied on Sweden joining NATO. There’s still a little arm-twisting that will go on behind the scenes, but most of the heavy lifting is done (and Turkey got the bribe they wanted, sooo everyone’s happy).

From a strategic POV, this is a huge win for NATO. Sweden is, bar none, the most capable country to join the alliance in the last 50 years, not just another security consumer mooching off everyone else. In addition, Sweden’s capabilities are also hyperfocused on one goal in particular…keeping Russia in its place.

Sure, the Swedes have been relatively neutral in the past, but they’re still armed to the teeth with shiny new toys. And from the perspective of the Americans, getting Sweden on board was the best possible outcome.

For the alliance as a whole, Sweden is more than just another name on the list; it’s a country that could reshape NATO’s entire outlook on the war in Ukraine.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

TRANSCIPT

Hello from Bison Peak in Colorado. I’m at about 12,000 feet right now. Probably won’t be staying here for the night anyway. By the time you get this message, everything should be pretty official. It looks like the Swedes are going to be joining Naito at the Vilnius summit. The Turks, after making a couple of outlandish demands, they basically indicated that they were looking for a bribe.

Apparently behind the scenes got the bribe that they were after and have given a preliminary approval. Now, this is not done until it’s done. You still have to have the Turkish parliament sign off on ratification. And after that there is one more obstacle with the Hungarian parliament. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has actually been acting as a advanced force for the Russians in Nieto in the EU.

So there are some complications could could arise. But the heavy lifting has been done now and that’s just to require a little bit of light arm twisting to probably make it happen. I have no idea what the bribe is that the Turks demanded and received, but everyone seems pretty pathetic. Things like this happen in Europe all the time anyway.

So on to the strategic issue. First and foremost, Sweden is the most capable country to join NATO’s since its formation back in the 1950s 1952. I believe you had your initial batch of Atlantic countries, which included, say, Britain and the Netherlands and Canada, the United States, obviously, those were very capable countries. And then in 1955, West Germany was admitted almost as a subject state.

The Germans were not allowed or issued opinions on strategic issues, and so they basically just served as a bulwark within the to the allied system until we had reunification in the 1980s. And since then, the countries that have joined, whether it’s during the seventies and the eighties, with countries like Greece or Spain or Portugal or in the post-Cold War era, such as Latvia or Romania or Poland, they have definitely fall into the category of what they like to call security consumers, countries that don’t have militaries that are right size to their needs and or have extreme geographic vulnerability to potential hostiles.

Sweden is the first country of note that has does not achieve that pattern. Sweden has been a major industrial military power over a half a millennia. And the reason we don’t think of Sweden as a major player is because for the last 300 years it’s been neutral in a conflict called the Great Northern War. Three centuries ago, Sweden was the preeminent military power of the entirety of Europe and almost ended up ruling it all.

And it took a coalition of everybody else, including the Russians and the people that we now think of as the Germans, to break Swedish power in Northern Europe. Since then, they have enforced a degree of neutrality on themselves, literally going back centuries. But they are not a normal, neutral country. They are armed to the freakin teeth. They are a maritime power.

But unlike the United States that has maritime interests in every ocean basin, theirs is entirely focused on the Baltic Sea. They have arguably the best amphibious military capability outside of the United States and the United Kingdom. And again, it’s very, very focused on a very specific geography. And that means that with the Swedes within the NATO’s firmly, you get that sort of defense competence with a cooperation that is very, very focused on one thing and one thing only.

And that is Russia. The Swedes have been quietly advocating for positions that will box in the Russians and that will encourage independence and development in places like the Baltic republics ever since 1992. Now they’re not doing it as a neutral. Now they’re doing it hand in glove, and it’s only going to be a matter of time, I would say, weeks to months, not years to decades before Sweden emerges as one of the leading voices within the alliance itself on pretty much everything that matters as regards the Ukraine war.

That means defense cooperation, that means military procurement, that means pushing for democracy in all of the fringe states. That means hemming in the Russians. That means taking a relatively forthright position vis a vis the Chinese. It is basically you’re looking from an American point of view, is it the best country in the world? Just joined the network. And unlike countries like, say, France or Turkey or even the United Kingdom that have their fingers in a lot of pots.

And so there’s always conflicting interests in the Swedish military. Every day, you wake up, you prepare for one thing, the war with the Russians. And there is a war with the Russians right now. All right. That’s it for me, everyone. Take care.

Ukraine’s Waiting Game: Zelensky’s Quest for NATO Membership

Note: This video was recorded back in June, but it helps paint a picture of what is going down at the NATO summit.

As the NATO summit in Vilnius wraps up, we’re left with a result that was more or less expected. Ukraine won’t be getting called up to the big leagues anytime soon, but it’s not all bad news for Zelensky…

Now you’re probably thinking that the main reason NATO was formed was to keep Russia (formerly the Soviet Union) at bay. While that may be true, NATO has no interest in getting into a direct conflict with Russia.

On top of that, Ukraine doesn’t quite cross off all the requirements on the list. So even if everything went perfectly at the summit, the accession process still requires unanimity…so don’t hold your breath.

Despite NATO leaving Ukraine out of the party, that doesn’t mean they won’t try to tip the scales in Ukraine’s favor; many NATO countries have already offered aid, supplies and support and that won’t be stopping anytime soon. A new wave of aid will be headed Ukraine’s way, so at least Zelensky wasn’t left completely high and dry.

While missiles, artillery, rockets, and an air force are all part of a combined arms warfare system, there’s simply no substitute for ground forces. The Russians are finding that even Ukraine, a country they dwarf militarily and economically, can have a shot at the title if they have the numbers and the right equipment.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

TRANSCIPT

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from the Monterey Airport. Thunderstorms in Denver have delayed my departure, which means I’m stuck here for an extra 4 hours and I’m going to get to know the bartender very well. But I figured I might as well record some thoughts since I had the time on the topic of waiting in the wings for other people to make a damn decision.

But it was a good time to talk about NATO membership and the case of Ukraine. And now the NATO alliance is built by a series of countries that have unanimously agreed to look out for one another’s security. And that is something that has never happened in a multilateral environment before. Most security agreements that exist on the planet today and throughout human history have been at most bilateral pacts where countries are willing to back away. Its only article five of the NATO alliance that actually legally binds countries to look out for one another. Obviously, that’s the theory, and practice can be somewhat different. But the issue is this has always been the best security guarantee among countries at any point in human history. And Ukraine wants in. And there was a great joke going on last year when the Ukrainians were doing a great job against the Russians. Like, you know, that Nito is seeking membership in Ukraine rather the other way around. The conversation has again started up about what might be necessary for the Ukrainians to actually join NATO.

Let me start with the punch line. Not this year, not next year, not the year after. Not the year after that. For Ukraine to join NATO. One of the core issues, it has to be that you don’t have a border dispute with any of your neighbors and that eliminates Ukraine or right off the bat, even if the war were to end tomorrow, the Russians are certainly going to have some quibbles with the Ukrainians when it comes to where the international border is. And until that is resolved, one way or another, this is completely off the table. That was true for the Italians back in the immediate post-world War two environment. That has been true for the Croatians in the post Yugoslav war scenarios, and that is true for the Ukrainians today. There’s the second issue that while NATO’s was formed to keep the Russians at arm’s length, NATO’s is not like giddy about the possibility of getting into a slugfest with a nuclear power. And so as long, again, as we have these hostilities going on between Ukraine and Russia, it’s not that NATO countries are going to put their finger on the scale and try to adjust the outcome. That’s not what I’m saying at all. But they don’t want to get directly involved. And an Article five guarantee would guarantee that NATO’s immediately goes into a state of general war. So if you’re Ukraine, I’m afraid you have to take what you can get and do what you can do on your own. NATO is there. NATO’s helping, but the Article five guarantee that is years ahead. And even if Russia were to be defeated completely tomorrow and its fangs were moved so it could never launch another war again. Only then could NATO’s begin the process of its 30 odd members actually going through the accession process.

And that all by itself is another five years. Alright. I’ll see you in, I don’t know, like 20 minutes or something.

Ask Peter: Will Hypersonics Replace the Need for an Army?

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With weapon systems moving toward hypersonics, what’s the point of holding geographic positions anymore? Theoretically, this works…at the push of a button, you can deliver a precise payload across huge distances…but the Russians have shown us this isn’t quite reality.

As the Russians descended into demographic decay, plugging these geographic access points NOW was their only way to prevent a future invasion. Sure, hypersonics are an excellent deterrent, but they’re expensive, can’t carry that large of a payload, and defense systems like the Patriot have proven rather effective.

Oh, and the Russians can’t even make the semiconductors necessary for more advanced targeting and strikes…so unless their enemies never moved, they’re probably looking at a surplus of really expensive paperweights.

While missiles, artillery, rockets, and an air force are all part of a combined arms warfare system, there’s simply no substitute for ground forces. The Russians are finding that even Ukraine, a country they dwarf militarily and economically, can have a shot at the title if they have the numbers and the right equipment.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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Ask Peter: Has the US Overcommitted Itself to the Ukraine War?

A military scout on overwatch

More than a few countries out there couldn’t walk and chew gum at the same time…but the US isn’t one of them. Today’s question in the ‘Ask Peter Series’ looks at whether or not the US has stretched itself too thin in Ukraine to deal with another major conflict.

Yes, the US has given the Ukrainians a couple of shiny new toys, but most of the stuff has been obsolete hand-me-downs. And how often do you get to test your new weapon systems in a real-world setting? So the only thing in the mix that throws up any red flags for me is the cluster munitions (and those were going to be retired soon anyways).

This war hasn’t impacted US military preparedness, and if China wanted to try its luck, they’d get an ass-whoopin’ compliments of Uncle Sam. The big piece here is that the people doing the walking and chewing the gum are entirely different. If anything, our involvement in Ukraine has been a proof of concept for how the US will fight the wars of the future.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

TRANSCIPT

Hey everyone. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from an incredibly green Colorado. We’ve gotten double our annual precipitation before we even hit April, but hasn’t stopped yet. Today, as part of the ask period to your series, we’re going to talk about chewing gum and walking at the same time. The concern is that in supplying weapons to the Ukrainians, the United States might be stretching its bandwidth to be able to deal with a major conflict like, say, with China.

The punch line is, no, this is not something I’m worried about at all. For the simple reason that the people would be doing the gum chewing and the walking or different people, any sort of military conflict that the Americans are going to get involved with, with the Russians are going to be primarily on land first and foremost in Ukraine itself.

That’s an army job. And any conflict that soon involved the Chinese is going to be on the high seas. That’s the Navy’s and to a lesser degree, Marines job. So the United States is perfectly capable of fighting two wars if they’re very different sorts of wars. So I’m not worried there. Number one. Number two, nothing has happened with the Ukraine war yet that has really hit American military preparedness.

So let’s get this first. From the weapons point of view, it’s already been given most of the weapons system, almost all the weapons systems that the United States has provided to the Ukrainians are things that the United States you know, most of the stuff that the American right it to the Ukrainians are things that the U.S. military hasn’t used itself since at least the 1990s and in most cases further back.

This is Army surplus that has to technologically be high the military uses. And so really, the Ukrainians are just going through our hand-me-downs now. We would have given these things to the allies. That’s what we did at the end of the Cold War, for example. But most of the military’s in Europe have been downsizing or skipping a generation.

What we’ll do is left all this stuff like Hummers going around and warehouses. So with a couple of notable exceptions, these are not things that the U.S. uses at all, the notable exceptions. There are currently two Patriot batteries operate in Ukraine that is very close to the top of an aircraft that the United States has right now. I would argue that even though taking those out of American service might be at the strategic issue for the U.S. a little bit.

It’s worth it because we’re getting real time experience with U.S. technology and third party hands against top of the line Russian equipment, most notably the Kinzel cruise missiles. And we now know for certain that even without American personnel operating them, the Patriots don’t done that. The Russians have that was a great bit of information that we didn’t have before.

The other thing is, are three shells. Now, the United States has not been engaged in a massive war to Vietnam. Even when you look at the Gulf Wars, they were very short little events. And so we haven’t had to use artillery in volume for a very long period of time in the United States, which means that our production of artillery shells has been pared to the bone and we are going through we the Ukraine is going through more artillery shells in a month and the United States can produce in a year.

And Europe is even further behind when it comes to munitions. So that has prompted the United States to get Canadians weapons systems that we are in the process of phasing out. And most notably, that is the cluster munitions that you may have seen in the news recently. Now, a cluster munition is one single piece of explosive. There are dozens or hundreds of little but spread over an area.

The Ukrainians have been on the receiving end of these weapons since the beginning of the war. Russians have preferred to use the cluster munitions whenever they’re targeting a city. They’ll use them when they go in and get things like tanks and so there’s already hundreds of thousands, if not tens of millions of these little bomblets, some of which haven’t exploded, scattered across all of eastern and southern Ukraine, aren’t brought up.

The kids aren’t thrilled. But from the Ukraine interview, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme. Because anywhere they can get and I believe they’re going to use cluster munitions on their population centers. That’s the job for the Russians anyway. These are weapons that are for is it’s a little distasteful. And the United States Army was in the process of them out anyway.

So again, this kind of falls into the category of surplus stuff, even if it’s not quite kind of there anyway. Bottom line, U.S. military preparedness really hasn’t been affected by this war to this point. If anything, it’s proving to be a useful proof of concept for how the U.S. is likely to fight wars in the future. In the aftermath of the war on terror in Iraq and Afghanistan.

There is no political support in the United States for a mass deployment for anything except for top level national defense. That’s not seen as an issue right now. No one’s dumb enough to attack the United States directly. At least I don’t think that’s going to happen. Which means that U.S. strategic policy is going to be operating through third parties and or using special forces.

And so with Ukraine, where we have a motivated third party who was very willing to be an ally except in equipment, and we’re finding out how well that works and getting some expertize and figuring out what to do better the next time around. So all in all, in a weird sort of way, you can kind of thank the Russians for getting the United States to where it needs to go, both getting rid of its what and learning how to fight for the next century.

Alright. That’s it. Bye..

The Greatest Reindustrialization Process in US History

Today’s windy video comes to you from just below the Continental Divide.

You know those little ‘Made in China’ stickers on everything you can buy in the US? Well, don’t be surprised when those all say ‘Made in America’ in a few years as the US carries out the greatest reindustrialization process ever…and if you thought the United States’ industrial buildout during WWII was wild…buckle up.

There’s a lot at play here, but we’ll touch on the legacy factors first. The US arguably has the world’s most highly skilled labor force, but we’re hyper-focused on the value-added stuff and outsource the rest. This arrangement can’t last much longer, but the shale revolution and petrochemical production have primed us for all the reshoring coming down the line.

Recently, COVID showed the US (and the world) that our supply chains weren’t as great as we thought. Now we’re having to reshore everything and turn over the power system, driving construction levels and spending through the roof. And the Inflation Reduction Act has helped provide the funding and regulatory structure to make it all happen.

Although inflation will be up there for a while (surprise, you can’t double your industrial plant without that happening), we’re on a solid trajectory to establish a fully regionalized supply chain. And if the US wants to have any sense of security down the line, we’ll just have to suck it up for a bit.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

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TRANSCIPT

Hey, everyone. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from Heart Lake, above Boulder, Colorado. Just below the continental divide, which is where I’ll be for the next few days. I suppose some day. Then, before I left, I could do a few videos and this first one is going to be on construction spending in the United States. I know some of you like and I get it.

But remember that we are in the midst of the greatest industrialization process in the United States history, building an industrial infrastructure and factories and refineries and pipelines and roads and all that faster than we did during World War Two. There’s a lot of things in play here, so let me start with kind of the legacy factors, and then we will go into the more the issues of the now.

So first legacies. The United States has the most highly skilled labor force in the world by a significant margin. There are a few countries like Singapore where the overall educational level might be higher. But, you know, Singapore is a country of 5 million people. The US is a country of 330 million. If I didn’t say the German to the French, which might have a little bit more productivity per hour than the United States, you know, we’re talking about the labor force in the United States four or five, six times as much.

And that means there’s not a lot that the United States can’t do far puts its mind to it. Now, historically, since 1945 and especially since 1991, what the U.S. has done is focus on the really, really, really high value added. We basically shipped all of our underwear manufacturing overseas, first to Mexico and then to China and India and instead we designed computers, we designed space station, designed microchips.

Not a lot of the manufacturing happens here because to be perfectly blunt, that’s not sufficiently high value added for the skill set of the American workforce. So that’s always been in the background. Second, the shale revolution courtesy of the shale revolution, the United States is glutted with natural gas, which is not merely a power fuel. It’s also used as an input for chemical components, which then go into all other types of manufacturing, whether or not you’re looking to do electrical work or diapers or anything in between.

The shale revolution made us net independent of natural gas roughly ten years ago. Net oil independent a little bit after we had a few hiccups because of COVID, but we’re back to being that independent in all the factors that matter again. And one of the first things that the shale revolution encouraged the United States to do in terms of industrial build out what we’re fighting, the chemicals and so we now are the world’s largest producer of all the precursor materials that go into all petrochemicals everywhere in the world.

And now we’re using those materials to do the next stage of heavy manufacturing. So this kind of the first big phase of this industrial spending issue isn’t necessarily for building power lines. It’s for building the stuff that allows us to build the stuff. Now on to the more current issues, too big things. First, COVID. We discovered that our international supply chains perhaps weren’t as reliable as we thought they were.

And between China’s centrality and all things manufacturing and China’s own COVID lockdown, we found out that if we wanted stuff, we had to build it ourselves. So we did. And during COVID, we saw total industrial construction spending double above the 50 year average. More recently, in the last two years, we had the Inflation Reduction Act passed by the Biden administration, which has nothing to do with inflation.

There’s more going on here than just aspects of a Green New Deal. It’s turning over the power system and reshoring the production line for everything in the power system. It includes everything that we did with NAFTA and after to you know, I should say a third thing, because after two is a big piece of this, too. But anyway, the I.R.A. put roughly $1,000,000,000 into the system to build out what we need in order to meet the requirements.

And that has doubled the construction spending again. So we were already at record levels three years ago. We’ve now doubled the record and this is going on from there. Now, this does mean we’re going to have some more inflation in the short in the mid-term, because there’s no way you double the size of the industrial plant without that.

But once we get to the back side of this a few years from now, we will have a supply chain system that is local, that is employed by locals, that serves local customers and uses less energy and less water, and has fewer steps and is largely immune to international shocks. This is a really good story. At every step.

We just have to suck up a little bit more inflation while we’re doing the work. Alright. That’s it. I’m going to go put on some gloves, but.

China Bans Greentech Metal Exports to the US

We’re continuing our conversation on China’s inability to govern itself, and this is the cherry on top of it all…China restricting the export of metals used in greentech and semiconductor tech to the United States.

If you’ve followed along for a while, you know that the US doesn’t have to worry about rare earths, but Germanium and Gallium don’t fall into that category. Spoiler alert – I’m not too worried about these either.

While the Chinese may dominate the production of these metals, it can be attributed to subsidies and no one else wanting to do the ‘dirty’ work. There’s nothing uber challenging about the process; it just requires someone that’s willing to get their hands dirty.

As the bilateral relationship with China grows more hostile by the day, knee-jerk reactions like this material export ban will do nothing but encourage Americans of all political stripes to cut ties. Ironically, China has become the biggest promoter of the US moving as fast and far away from Chinese dependency as possible.

If the Chinese really want to start a material input war, they might as well start the countdown sequence because they would be f****d.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

TRANSCIPT

Hey, everybody. Peter Zaillian here. Coming to you from extremely foggy, Colorado. We are continuing kind of a two part one here and something that’s going on with the Chinese and their inability to govern or enter in negotiations. So the new news from the 5th of July is that the Chinese are restricting exports of a couple of materials to the United States, materials that are used in green technologies and semiconductor industry, specifically germanium and gallium.

Now, for those of you who’ve been following me for a while, you know that when it comes to things like rare earths, I’m really not concerned because all we have to do is kind of turn on the processing, the capacity that we’ve already built. And then within a few months, the Chinese suppliers don’t matter at all. This doesn’t fall into that category. Gallium and germanium are not rare earths. They’re co-produced with other or so. It’s not that the extraction is particularly difficult, but this is something where we would have to build up the processing capacity first before we can get around this being a problem. I still don’t think it’s a major problem for two reasons. Number one, for people who are willing to admit something that’s becoming increasingly obvious, the bilateral relationship between the United States and China is hostile.

It’s becoming more hostile by the second and the incapacity of the Chinese system to even enter into meaningful negotiations means it’s only going to get worse. You know, part of the issue is that Chairman Ji has so purged the system that China is not even capable any longer having good faith negotiations. And even if it was capable of good faith, it couldn’t handle the technical details because Chairman, she would have to do it personally and they would have to implement it personally because he’s purged the system throughout China of anyone who is even marginally competent. So the capacity of China to even act as an actor, much less a good faith actor, is pretty much fallen away. Which leaves us with things like this germanium and gallium band, because this is like knee jerk grade D-minus, not even freshman level economic coercion. The Chinese said flat out that this was a hostile move designed to punish the United States and that more was coming.

But when you look at what’s going on, you’ll see that it’s not something to be all that worried about. Now, Germany and gallium, the Chinese, based on whose numbers you’re using, produce between 50 and 80% of those two materials. And yes, the United States does have a weakness in terms of processing and access, but a few things to keep in mind. First of all, germanium is a byproduct of zinc mining and zinc refining, and zinc production globally is pretty robust. Yes, the Chinese are the biggest player, but they’re also the biggest user. So if you were simply to add some processing capacity at a half a dozen places around the world, maybe a couple of the United States would be nice. That would solve itself. Gallium is a byproduct of aluminum production, specifically the first stop of aluminum production where you turn bauxite into alumina. That is also done in a number of places. The reason that the Chinese dominate the production of these two micro materials is that it’s a little dirty. And so the Chinese have to subsidize the production about specific sets. There’s nothing expensive or technologically competent or even particularly time consuming about building replacement capacity. And so we might have some pressure for a few weeks to a few months as people kind of sink in how serious the Chinese are or not about these bans. But replacing those materials is not particularly hard. Second, I would argue that this is a good thing that the Chinese are using a complete lowball flunky, incompetent measure of intimidation because, you know, Americans are going to blow this out of proportion. Things like the IRA and the CHIPS Act were rare. And for a third one that is specifically about strategic materials production, and this plays right into that political drama. You’ll have Democrats and Republicans falling over each other in order to put the money forward and put in regulations to encourage these productions within the North American system of the Chinese have really proven to be very helpful in that. And third, and most importantly, if the Chinese really are serious about an input war, oh my God, they are fucked because 90% of the world’s semiconductor sector capable silicon comes from North freakin Carolina. And so if we’re really talking about a materials war as part of the struggle for the digital age, they’re not going to have computers because they can’t get access to the raw materials that are necessary in mass to make the most basic technologies that make air run, and that’s semiconductors.

So this is not something where the Chinese have any more than a passing advantage on a couple of micro materials that are easily to produce in other places. And by doing this in this way, in this in-your-face wolf warrior way for something that ultimately is easily replaceable, is probably the most effective way that I can think of, of getting the United States past dependency on the Chinese in general and honestly destroying the tech sector in its entirety.

Now, there’s some political decisions that have to be made in the United States on both sides of the aisle, on Capitol Hill, in the White House, and on and on and on. But the United States is in the mood for this, the competence discussion now that we’re entering political season for the next election cycle, is who can be most anti-Chinese? It’s just a question of whether or not you’re going for hopefully or were derisking or reinforcing. I mean, everyone has their own preferred term, but the bottom line for almost everyone is how to end the dependency. And the Chinese are really being very helpful in encouraging us to move that forward.

Alright. That’s it. Take care.

China Cancels Summit with EU’s Foreign Affairs Minister Borrell

The news of the day is that the Chinese have canceled their upcoming summit with EU foreign minister Borrell. You all know I’m less than pessimistic about China’s leadership as of late, and this is just icing on the cake…we’ll talk about the cherry on top tomorrow.

As most countries have discovered over the past few years, reading China is incredibly difficult from the outside. The US got a pulse check on Xi and his government when Secretary Blinken visited a few weeks back. Unfortunately, the EU won’t be getting a behind-the-scenes look.

This summit was an attempt by the Europeans to rework their relationship with the Chinese, but Xi’s cult of personality makes navigating that conversation nearly impossible…especially with how many layers make up the European bureaucratic system.

Regardless of the EU’s goal with this summit, no meaningful conversation would be had. So given a choice between a wall of hostility or canceling the meeting…cancelation was probably the best option.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

TRANSCIPT

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from a place in Colorado that it doesn’t really matter where I am because you can’t see the damn thing anyway. Today is the 5th of July, and within the last few hours the Chinese have flat out canceled the upcoming summit with the EU Foreign Minister Borrell. For those of you who have been following me for a while, you know that I’m not very impressed by the quality of China’s leadership of late Chairman Xi Jinping has established such a cult of personality that no one will bring him any information.

He’s shot the messenger so many times and purged the system so thoroughly that anyone across the entire country who is capable of independent thought and is willing to share independent thoughts is dead, imprisoned, exiled or worse. And as a result, the government has become a one man show. If she doesn’t say that it’s going to happen, it doesn’t happen.

And that means whenever there’s any sort of adjustment that is necessary for the ship of state at any level, everything gets frozen, either in a cult of personality where it just becomes this apologetic, scream of blind, idiotic Chinese nationalism or things just don’t happen at all. And that’s exactly what’s happening with the EU summit. And I think the best way to compare this is to what happened to the Blinken summit.

Now Tony Blinken is the American secretary of state and a couple of weeks back he went to China and it was the first meeting of anyone of substance in the United States with anyone of substance in the Chinese system. Since before COVID, the Chinese have been in lockdown for most of that time. And during that time, he completed his cult of personality and his purges and removed everyone who’s capable within the entire system.

So it was really hard for the United States to get any sort of read on what was actually going on in the country, because no one in China would say anything, because no one in China knew anything or had any instructions. So it was worth Blinken going to China just to kind of take the temperature of the regime and reading the tea leaves.

And from what I’ve heard from folks in Washington, what happened was just there’s a complete stall in government policymaking right up to and including the foreign minister. And knowing that is really useful for the United States if China is completely incapable of governance, then you should expect to see a mounting series of ever more serious foreign policy and internal policy disruptions, mistakes and collapses.

We’re seeing some of that. We’ll talk about another one of those with the next video as regards to economic issues. But back to the Europeans, the Europeans are in the process of trying to rejigger the relationship with China and they’re trying to find a third way. The first way is what they’ve been doing so far, where they just kind of roll over, let the Chinese do whatever they want.

The second one is the more American style, which is a little bit more in-your-face and more direct and confrontational, but trying to find something in the middle and it’s not clear that there is a path there. But, you know, the European thing is to try for a third way on everything anyway. Now Borrell, like the European Foreign Minister, doesn’t go anywhere alone.

There is a number of representatives of the Commission, there’s representatives of the national government. There’s a small fleet of bureaucrats. One of the things that most foreign powers find really problematic and frustrated about the Europeans is everything is about the EU bureaucracy and going through layers of approval that involves the French and the Germans and everybody else, and that’s before independent countries put intelligence agents as part of the delegation, especially in the case of Germany and France and Sweden and the Netherlands and Denmark and Romania and Belgium.

And I’m sure forgetting a few of the high points that Europeans are pretty good at this. But mostly you’re talking about a small army of bureaucrats there to renegotiate every possible bit of minutia that makes up the relationship. This is what makes Europe go, the bureaucratic minutia that allows them to kind of act as a sovereign country, like a single country, but mostly is about creating a web work of relationships and inter linking bureaucratic regulations in order to stabilize the relationship.

If you’re not European, this is frustrating as hell. If you are European, this is how we make the system work. And there is nothing about that system that works with a cult of personality where only one person can make the decisions. So regardless of what the goal of the Europeans was here, there was no way that the Chinese system was capable of engaging with Europe competently, because there’s no way that one person could manage this sort of interaction.

And in the case of the Europeans, they were going to bring everything into. The case of the Chinese, they could negotiate nothing, too. So the Chinese were left with a very simple choice face. The Europeans with an American style wall of just hostility or cancel the meeting. And so they canceled the meeting, and that’s probably never going to have another one again, because for the Europeans, this is how they normally operate.

And for the Chinese, they are now completely capable of carrying out complex negotiations of any sort. And as long as that is the case, there’s no point in meeting in the first place. So we’ll be up to the Europeans, either talking with the Americans or other foreign powers or among themselves to figure out what happens to the bilateral relationship with the Chinese when the Chinese are not capable of engaging at all.

That’s going to be a topic for another day. But anyway, next topic we’ll talk about some of the economic things that the Chinese are doing in this mood of a cult of personality. All right. But.