Is the LK-99 Superconductor the Key to Green Energy?

Today’s video comes to you from the peak of Mount Evans.

Is the superconductor of every Green’s dreams finally here? I hate to burst your bubble, but the LK-99 is just too good to be true.

Despite their claims, these ‘new’ studies on LK-99 have largely been dismissed by the scientific community due to inconsistencies in the methodologies used. In reality, we haven’t gotten any closer to the superconductors we’ll need for the green transition to stick.

One of the big problems with green energy comes down to transmission. Once your solar panels or wind turbines generate all this power, you still need to get it to the people who will use it. If you can’t do that, then what’s the point?

While this might not be the answer to our superconductor needs, at least this topic will get some new eyes on it and much-needed attention. And who knows, maybe it will even kickstart policy reform…

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

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Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
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TRANSCIPT

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from the peak of Mount Evans. Behind me is Mount Bear Start and Square Top. And behind that, Geneva and Silver and Decatur and treasurer and all the others. Today we’re in talk about something a lot of you have written in about, and that is the 99 superconductor information that has recently been leaked onto Twitter and Reddit.

The idea of a superconductor is it doesn’t lose any of its throughput regardless of distance. And if you can do that over long distances, you can transfer power from anywhere to anywhere relatively easily and cheaply. That’s the idea anyway. The short version for Elk 99 is that it’s probably nothing. The reports in question date back over 15 years, and the only thing that’s new is that they were leaked and they were put online and a number of institutions within Korea, because that’s where the first tests were done.

I’ve already come out and saying that at best they’re flawed, but none of them have ever been replicated, including by the team that did the original report. So there’s probably nothing here. It’s just that it’s getting a little bit of fresh air all of a sudden. Now, if you want to bet on semiconductors, I welcome you to to it.

It’s one of the materials science breakthroughs that we really need if we’re going to make the green transition stick. One of the problems we have with the green transition is that you can generate a lot of solar in the southwest and a lot of wind power in the Great Plains, but that’s not where most of the American population lives.

And even in the United States, where people only, only live, a couple thousand miles away from those zones, that’s much better than you’ve got in, say, Europe, where you’d have to basically go to the great Eurasian steppe for wind and into the Sahara for solar. So if you can solve the semiconductor and the transmission problem, great. There’s also another issue in the United States, because it’s hard to transmit power.

And, you know, very, very, very, very loose rule of thumb. If you transport power about 500 miles, it costs almost as much to do that transmission because of the loss as it does to generate the power in the first place. So you’re generally not going to send electricity very far. What that means is in the United States, most electrical concerns, all the utilities are local.

So each town or each county has their own. There are very few large utilities in the United States. And if you want to make solar and wind work at scale, you either need larger and larger and larger entities, or you need the ability to transfer power across jurisdictional lines, especially state and grid boundaries. Superconductors would, in theory, allow us to do that technically, but we still need the legal structure to do it.

Now you can do high voltage lines, which will double, triple, maybe even quadruple the distance. You can send power in an economically viable manner. But until you can cross those boundaries, it doesn’t really matter. So what we need now, even before we get superconductors, is a multiple acts of Congress to break down the legal jurisdictions to allow power to be sent long distances.

And as soon as Congress does that, a number of states will sue. Because right now this has been a local and a state legal prerogative. So we need a significant legal overhaul before we can really do the green transition, even if we did have superconductors. So I’d say start now and get the laws changed. And then hopefully we can have that physical science breakthrough that is necessary to do this at scale and over distance.

Okay. That’s it. Take care.

ECOWAS’ Deadline on the Niger Coup

Today’s video comes to you from Bear Peak just above Boulder, CO.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) set Monday, Aug. 7, as the deadline for the Niger Coup plotters to step down and renounce power. That deadline has come and gone without any change, so what happens now?

This coup shouldn’t surprise anyone; just look at the African Sahel region, and you’ll see they are no strangers to coups. That’s been a harsh reality for the French operating in the area, and the coup in Niger only leaves a few options on the table…pack up and go home, send in some special forces to overthrow the government, or offer aid once the ECOWAS security clause kicks in (if it does at all).

This security clause dips into uncharted territory. Crossing borders has always been a big no-no in West Africa, but it might be time to rewrite some rules. And if anyone can do so, it would be the big dog of the region, Nigeria. And yes, the French would likely throw some aid into the mix.

ECOWAS will meet this Thursday to debate and discuss the coup in Niger. Their decisions and actions over the next few weeks will give us a glimpse of the next few decades in West Africa.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

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First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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TRANSCIPT

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from Bear Peak, one of the flat irons above Boulder, Colorado. And the news today is that the deadline has passed for the major coup plotters to renounce power and allow civilians back in. Now, some quick background here. The French have been fighting their version of the war on terror in the African Sahel region, which is the zone between the tropics and the desert, the Sahara, for pretty much as long as the United States fight the global war on terror.

Obviously, they fought what was the war that was made some sense to them. So while the Americans were in Iraq and Afghanistan, the French have been moving around in the Sahel region. And just like with the United States, it didn’t go well. It hasn’t been going particularly well for the French either. The problem is that none of the geographies in question are particularly productive.

The Sahel does get more rainfall than the desert, but not a lot. So agriculture is difficult in a lot of these countries don’t even have a lot to mine. So you’ve got thin population density, maybe one or two population centers, and it’s really hard for those population centers to exercise the rich over the rest of the territory, ergo, where the French have come in to partner with the local governments.

The problem is those local governments aren’t stable. So the four big ones Niger, Mali, Gabon and Burkina Faso, all former French colonies have now all had coups. And as the first three happened in Guinea and Mali and Burkina Faso, the French have concentrated more and more of their efforts on Niger. And so now that Niger has had its coup as well, there’s not a lot to go for.

So we go one of three directions from here. Number one. The French suck it up. Realize that their influence in. Oh, well, they realize that their influence in the region is gone. And go home and deal with issues they can deal with. Which would probably mean sticking it to the country that has had the biggest influence with the coup plotters, which is Russia.

Option number two is the French go in hard and send some special forces in to knock over at least one of these governments. With Niger being the most likely one. And in that scenario, it honestly wouldn’t be too hard to do because the the coup government is just as unstable as what came before. And if you remember back to when we had the war in Libya, it turned out the locals couldn’t do the assault on Tripoli.

So the French, the Brits and the Americans each sent in a few dozen special forces and basically paved the way to the presidential palace for the resistance and easily overthrew Gaddafi. And then there’s option number three, which you kind of get an interest in, which gets us to the deadline that we saw today. There’s a group called Equal Was, which is the Economic Organization of West African States, which is trying to be an African version of the EU.

And, you know, we can find plenty of fault with how they’ve pulled it off. But they do have a security clause. And Equal was basically told the coup plotters that they needed to step down by today and they didn’t. So the question now is whether you is going to put its money where its mouth is. Now, the French get along very well with most of the countries, of course, and the one that matters the most, which is the most powerful one by far, is Nigeria.

And the Nigerian military is something like four times as powerful as the combined militaries of all four of the countries that have been taken over by coups. So if the Nigerians do choose to rouse themselves, especially with some French assistance, this could get very, very interesting, very, very quickly. And now that it was the deadline has passed and it was an equal watch deadline, not a French deadline, we will find out whether or not the Africans are capable of putting together a security force to cross borders by themselves.

Historically speaking, this was a big no no. One of the big contingents of African Union membership and African diplomacy overall was never, ever, ever, ever change the borders because that reeks of colonialism. But that policy may now be 60 years out of date, and it may very well be time for the regional heavyweight to do something different or for the French to do something similar.

Either way, we’re going to get some very instructive lessons on what is and is not going to fly in West Africa over the course of the next few weeks. So stay tuned. Take care.

Let’s Talk North Korea and Travis King

Before we dive into today’s video, let me start by saying that if you want to defect somewhere…maybe don’t choose the same place as Travis King. Now let’s look at where things are with North Korea.

The history of North Korea is nothing short of a fever dream, and anyone who tells you they know what’s going on inside the country is most definitely lying.

Fast forward to today, and we still have very little insight into the inner workings of North Korea. Although, it appears that Kim Jung Un is “finding his own way” as the generations before him mysteriously die off or retire.

What does this mean for Travis King? We’ll just have to wait and see what this wildcard of a country decides to do.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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Russia’s Largest Port Comes Under Fire

The Ukrainians and Russians had a hectic weekend, so let’s get caught up.

On Friday, the Ukrainians used a naval drone (a motorboat loaded with a crap ton of explosives) to hit a Russian vessel in the port of Novorossiysk. These naval drones have been successful so far; just look at the Kerch Strait Bridge. However, a naval drone hitting Novorossiysk would signal a considerable range increase OR that a third party is involved.

So how does this play into commercial shipping? On Saturday, the Ukrainians hit a Russian tanker with one of these drones. And if that marks the beginning of a trend, this will be a big problem for many people. As the Black Sea becomes a no-go zone, Russia’s global position will suffer because everything they do is dependent on free movement…if that goes up in smoke, everything does.

I’ve been surprised up to this point that not everything has gone up in smoke, but it’s looking like those days might be over. The “restraint” that we’ve seen from both sides has practically gone away overnight, and there will be huge whiplash effects. The oil industry, in particular, will face significant disruptions; most of that falling on China and the rest of East Asia.

A lot still needs to happen, but the Russians could be losing their strategic position in the water, their ability to penetrate global economies, and their ability to project power across the wider world…not to mention a complete reordering of international energy. So yeah, things are heating up.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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Ask Peter: Is Biden Killing US Energy Independence?

We appreciate the interest and engagement from our followers, but with Peter’s travel schedule and sheer volume of requests, we are unable to answer non-business-related questions via e-mail. If you’d like to join in on the conversation, head over to the community tab on our YouTube Channel

Our next video in the ‘Ask Peter’ series comes to you from just above Loveland Pass at about 13,000 ft. As the Biden administration piles on more drilling restrictions on public land, will America’s energy independence be jeopardized?

Quick backstory on America’s energy journey. The US was a net energy exporter until 1973. Once we used up all the “easy-access” oil, we became the world’s largest oil importer, peaking in the mid-2000s. Then the Shale Revolution changed everything.

Fracking gave the US access to a boatload of new oil (this technology has been around for a while but wasn’t popularized until the early 2000s). Fast forward to today, and the US is once again energy independent (minus a little COVID hiccup).

So will the Biden administration’s new restrictions on public land drilling set us back again? Oil from public lands accounts for such a marginal amount of the total US output that any of these regulations aren’t going to move the needle much. As long as there’s an incentive for these private landowners to be successful, this shouldn’t be a problem…

Offshore drilling is a little different. The quick and dirty is that short-term market moves aren’t the primary motivator in this space, so longer approval periods and stricter regulations aren’t of too much concern.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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US and Saudi Arabia Relations: Part 2

Yesterday we covered the key players in the US and Saudi relations. Today we’ll look at the strategic implications of this relationship over the past 40 years and what it looks like moving forward.

Saudi Arabia matters to the US more than many other US allies. Not only are the Saudis massive oil exporters, but they also have strong ties to the world’s Muslim population.

Over the past few decades, the US and the Saudis have partnered up to tackle a handful of critical situations; from stalling the Soviets to the war in Afghanistan to spurring economic growth in Europe and Japan, this relationship has proven vital.

The bottom line is with major players like Russia and China already in motion, the US and Saudis won’t allow ugly politics to get in the way of geopolitical relations. Saudi Arabia is a power center and doesn’t need to be under the American wing, but there’s still a mutually beneficial relationship on the table.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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US and Saudi Arabia Relations: Part 1

We’re talking US – Saudi relations. This will be a two-parter, but today we’re focusing on the key players.

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan went to Saudi Arabia to lay down the framework for a new set of relations. As of late, relations have been less than ideal.

The National Security Advisor is really the manager of American foreign policy – even though the State Department gets all the credit. So seeing the hyper-competent Jake Sullivan leading the charge here is indicative of just how critical this is.

Biden’s push to Greentech has caused riffs in the relationship, but the other side has played a role too. MBS, the crown prince, is – for lack of a better term – an ass. And as anyone who’s dealt with someone like that knows, you have to put up with a lot of crap.

However, with Russia and China making moves against the US, Biden is starting to realize that Saudi Arabia is a very useful partner to have.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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Mexican Demographics: Where Are All the Kids?

Most of the developing world has relatively similar demographics…the defining characteristic being a boatload of kids. And until recently, Mexico was no exception to that.

The first chart shows Mexico’s demographics before the new data was released. The only thing of note is the drop-off around age 25, where Mexico starts to move from a pyramid to a column shape. This is essentially a warning sign that if nothing changes, there will be a demographic collapse down the road.

The second chart shows Mexico’s demographics with the new data. Where did all the kids go? Well, a combination of the global financial crisis, COVID, and drug wars made people a tad less interested in raising kids. On top of that, America has shifted to a closed border system, which forced Mexican families to move to the US full-time instead of sending the men over for seasonal work.

This isn’t the nail in the coffin for Mexico, but they must change things up. And for the Americans, they best start treating their Mexican population like the precious resource it has become.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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What the Coup in Niger Means for France

The French have found themselves caught between a rock and a hard place, and a coup in Niger happens to be the catalyst for this predicament. To be clear, we’re only talking about Niger because of what it means for the French.

We all know the storied past of the British and French colonies, and a keen history buff would know France set up shop in the Sahel and West Africa. Well, this coup in Niger could mark the end for the French in this region.

There are a couple of options on the table. France could make the political decision to go in and kick out Wagner (who is a major foreign backer), which would be a roundabout way of attacking Russia. Or the French could pack up and march back to Europe, where they would also have to duke it out with the Russians, given the EU’s stance on the Ukraine War.

The French have long had their hands in many different pots, made easier by their geographic degree of separation from any rivals. However, it appears that the French will be making moves against Russia regardless of how they handle the situation in Niger…and that’s what makes this coup so important.

Prefer to read the transcript of the video? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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TRANSCIPT

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from the front range foothills above Denver. And today we’re going to talk about the French and what they’re gonna be doing in the next several months. Specifically, the trigger is a coup that occurred in the African state of Niger, which is roughly at the intersection of no. And where people are trying to rack their brains about why Niger is important.

And let’s be very specific about this. Economically, it is not. Yes, it is a uranium source for the French, but uranium is not rare. Kazakhstan and Australia and Canada are three of the world’s fourth largest producers, and all three of those are increasing their output. So it’s not like this is going to cause a huge shock to the international system in any meaningful way.

The withdrawal of Russia from the uranium market would be far more substantial, and that hasn’t happened yet anyway. Why it matters is because it matters to the French. During the Imperial era, the British and the French were basically duking it out and competing for this or that colony wherever it happened to be. And the Brits were very, very smart about it.

They would look for places where there were natural markets or even better transport nodes, such as rivers that allowed them to take control of a local trade system without controlling all of the surrounding countryside. And that left all the countryside largely available for the French. And the French looked at it as a national ego issue and a size issue.

And so for them, the Sahel in West Africa was great because it was these huge expanses of territory. Well, you fast forward today and the Brits have the Commonwealth, which allows them to maintain some of those trade links. And the French are basically looking out for a number of countries that don’t like them very much, that are broadly economically worthless and difficult to defend throughout the Sahel and West Africa.

You have jihadist insurgencies because a lot of those areas near desert and it’s very difficult for the local countries to build capacity. And so they have to invite the French in to try to maintain a degree of security order. The problem with that strategy is when you have very low population density and very fragile systems, coups happen. And this is not the first coup in the region.

There’s already been one in Mali and Burkina Faso, which are two other former French outposts where the French troops have had to withdraw. Now, if Niger goes the same way, that’s pretty much the end of the French post-colonial jihadist era anti-insurgency operations throughout the region. It really is what’s left. It is the linchpin for what’s left. So the French now have to make a decision.

Well, let me give you the two options. Number one is they go in hard and kill or capture the losers. This is something that would be dramatic. Now, the French have the capacity. Nobody’s doubting that in terms of bullets for bullets, soldier for soldier, you’re talking about a force that is on par with American special forces. Probably don’t tell the special forces that.

And with a lot fewer political restrictions on their mode for action. So when they go in, they go in very hard. I have no doubt they could do that. The problem the problem is that the computers in Burkina Faso, in Mali and probably now in Niger are in part successful because of their links to Russia’s Wagner Group. Now, if you guys remember Wagner, that was the group that threw their little abortive coup a few weeks ago and were basically purged from the military system in Ukraine.

And the question is where they do now. Looks like a lot of them maintain operations within the African landmass because honestly, the routes are a little bit more flexible there. And if Wagner is in Africa, then they’re not in Moscow. There are are some operations in Moscow to take over Wagner directly to purge it of some of the senior leadership that might be more amenable to throwing a coup back home.

But part and parcel pieces of it will still remain active in Africa. The question is, what does everyone do about that? Wagner has been accused quite accurately of war crimes and crimes against humanity. And now that we know it’s the Russian state and has been all along. States are going to treat it differently. And this is an opportunity for France a very, very capable country, in an area that is near and dear to its heart to actually do something.

So we very well way see the French and the Russians going at it in Africa. And that would be a situation where the Russians would be eviscerated because Russian logistics are completely dependent on international trade and shipments. And France has an expeditionary navy in addition to some of the world’s best special forces. So that would be delightful to see.

But it’s a French political decision that would have to be made to pull the trigger. They can either have imperial retreat and the humiliation that they perceive that goes along with that, or they can take the fight to the Russians, which is a country that they attempted to not break relations with completely. Not an easy choice. Option two They suck it up and they go home.

One of the things that makes France. France is that it is far enough away from all of the global hotspots, whether it’s East Asia or Ukraine, that they have the flexibility to have fingers in a lot of pots. The quintessential statement is France has no enemies, no allies, only interests. And there’s a lot of truth to that. Well, if an entire region, Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, specifically, all of a sudden is a no go zone for the French, then they have a significantly lower number of interests in their neighborhood, and that will force them to focus on the ones that remain.

And if they can’t project power to West Africa, the idea that they can project power to a place like East Asia is kind of silly. So all of a sudden Europe becomes a lot more important to them, and Europe is involved in a war with the Russians. So one way or another, Paris is about to decide or be forced into circumstances where it’s going to be taking a lot more direct action against all things Russian, whether that’s in Ukraine or Africa, doesn’t really matter.

And that is something we have not seen the sort of lockstep agreement in the Western world is pretty rare, historically speaking, to have a cultural group form an alliance that’s already rare and it’s already been significant. But France has always been a bit of an outlier. And what we’re going to see over the rest of this year is that’s going to be a lot less true.

And that’s a real problem if you’re Russian because, you know, say what you will about the French. They are not shy and they are very capable and they’re about to throw in their lot. It’s going to be fun to watch. All right. Take care.

The End of Ukrainian Agriculture

Today’s video comes to you from Pine Creek in the Collegiate Wildnerness of central Colorado.

Russia has pulled out of the grain deal brokered by Turkey and the UN, and the countdown on Ukrainian agriculture has officially started.

The Russians are wasting no time, as attacks have already begun on the physical infrastructure that allowed Ukrainian wheat, corn, and sunflower to reach international markets by ship. Unfortunately, none of this is new; Russia is looking for any way to crush the Ukrainian economy and kickstart a famine in the region.

Efforts to export these products via other channels are somewhat futile, considering the cost breakdown and the risk involved. With exports already down by 2/3 before this deal was abandoned, this winter wheat crop will likely be the last one of size to hit international markets.

And it doesn’t stop there. As Russia continues to target agricultural infrastructure, Ukraine will lose the capacity to provide for its own population and become a food importer within the year.

To that tune, I encourage you to donate to MedShare or a charity of your choice. We must support these organizations that are working aggressively to alleviate some of the human suffering caused by this war. Learn more below.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
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