Peter Zeihan, Author at Zeihan on Geopolitics

Ukraine Opens Up on Belgorod

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Peter Zeihan’s Risk List: What Keeps a Geopolitical Strategist Up at Night

Please join Peter Zeihan for a webinar on June 5th at 12:00 PM EST on a topic that is near and dear to the hearts of the Zeihan on Geopolitics team: geopolitical risk. This webinar will feature Peter’s reasonable-fear list, focused on issues that in his opinion have the most potential to impact market outcomes.

From the beginning of the Ukraine War, the Western nations have placed restrictions on how their weapons donations to Ukraine can be used. Specifically, Western nations have been concerned that if Ukraine targets Russian forces within Russia, escalation may be unavoidable. But recent events have forced a change of calculus in the West.

Less than 48 hours after NATO gave Ukraine the right to use those donated weapons against Russian targets within Russia, Ukrainians opened up on Russian military assets in and around the Russian city of Belgorod.

It’s too soon to assess damage, but the lack of Russian counterattack suggests Ukraine will soon be able to attack Russian forces wherever they can be reached. Regardless of the weapon systems Ukrainians are using.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Can Former President Trump ‘Make Felonies Great Again’?

WE’RE LESS THAN A WEEK AWAY FROM THE WEBINAR!

Peter Zeihan’s Risk List: What Keeps a Geopolitical Strategist Up at Night

Please join Peter Zeihan for a webinar on June 5th at 12:00 PM EST on a topic that is near and dear to the hearts of the Zeihan on Geopolitics team: geopolitical risk. This webinar will feature Peter’s reasonable-fear list, focused on issues that in his opinion have the most potential to impact market outcomes.

Well, we’ve all heard the news at this point. Trump is a FELON, after being convicted on 34 counts of financial fraud related to hiding his affair. So, can Trump spin this “publicity” in a positive light or will it bite him in the ass come November?

The case was fairly straightforward, given the clear evidence and testimonials, but we’ll have to wait until July 11 for Trump’s sentencing. I wouldn’t expect him to see any jail time; however, the potential for probation and a (likely) dragged out appeals process could have significant impacts on his campaign schedule.

The real question is how does this effect Trumps shot at the presidency? It was already going to be a long shot for Trump, so this conviction and the fallout it carries might be the kiss of death. All Biden has to do now is just keep breathing.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Hey everyone Peter Zeihan here. I am, on my way to Milan to fly home, and you guys just couldn’t wait for me to get home and get sucked me back into politics. Okay, so when I woke up this morning about the. Donald Trump has been convicted in New York for eight of 34 counts of laundry and financial fraud.

for hiding a, a theater, attempting to hide an affair that he had with the porn star Stormy Daniels. the way it works is …., 34 felonies, felony. Because if you engage in fraud and attempt to hide a crime, it automatically elevated class and felony. so let’s do a quick Q&A. what are the state things here?

And then talk about where this leads. does this mean that Donald Trump no longer run for president? no, it does not. there’s nothing in the Constitution that says but, there are who can run for president. although, funny thing, you can’t vote. but you can still run for president. number two, what’s next?

on July 11th, we get our sentencing hearing, and it is unlikely that Trump will go to jail. This was a nonviolent crime, and he’s a first time felon. Feels weird to say that. so we’re looking at probably some form of probation. Now, probation comes with restrictions. And as we’ve seen in the trial, with all of the charges of contempt of court and, gag order, is the chances of Trump following those restrictions are going to be interesting, especially in terms of campaign setting.

number three, what about appeals? Appeals will happen. Absolutely. But it’s unlikely that we will see the appeals process completed. But before we have the presidential election, the big difference this time we’re worried about his scheduling, because when he hasn’t been convicted of anything yet, the court was believed to create in the degree of deference when it came to scheduling, now that he’s been convicted of 34 felonies.

So there’s going to be very different. So, you know, things like the debates, things like rallies, those could actually be impacted pretty severely by whatever the appeals schedule is. A Trump will, of course, have a vested interest in dragging that to other possible. But even if he didn’t do that, certainly, I could be resolved before we get to the first week of November and have the general election.

And then finally, there’s the question of whether or not this is a fair ruling or not. okay, so I’m in Italy right now, and a lot of these conversations have come up. And, you know, the Italians have some experience with politicians who dabble in corruption, politicians who dabble in ideals, and politicians who combine the two. And the general ditch here, which was really funny, is like, if you’re going to do things like this, you have to have an accountant to hide everything well and a fixer to make sure that the news doesn’t get out.

In the case of Donald Trump, those two things were the same person. So like, oh, that’s not very smart. And then second, they’re like, and you get to keep these two people as close to you as possible because they’re the ones who know where the bodies are. They’re the people who have the receipts. And the reason why this court case was sewed up so quickly, and why did the jury only need a couple of days to debate?

34 different counts, and why they came back with a unanimous verdict so quickly? Is that the fixer in the accountant and all of their documentation flipped and were testifying for the prosecution. So the only other outstanding bit of information to make this an easy case was the court star herself, who also could show for the play. Yeah, the that’s into her bank account matched with the debits from Trump’s account.

So it really was from the accounting point of view, a very open and shut case, of the hospital you can think about for this matter. It’s big impact will have on the election. And, this is just amusing from my point of view, because as soon as the verdict came in in Trump campaign headquarters, cheers erupted. I feel like we can totally fundraise off of this.

And then Biden election headquarters cheers erupted. Totally fund both of us. everyone seems to have forgotten the abuse of the 10% of the electorate, were independents, were just kind of nauseated by the whole thing. And the independents have decided every presidential election since the early 1960s. And they are not going to vote for somebody who now has 34 felonies under his belt.

So as far as I’m concerned, this verdict has decided the election or other reasons to think that Trump was already in trouble. But this is really makes it impossible for him to win.

assuming, of course, that Biden doesn’t die, I’d have never.

Will the West Greenlight Strikes Inside Russia for Trigger Happy Ukraine?

WE’RE LESS THAN A WEEK AWAY FROM THE WEBINAR!

Peter Zeihan’s Risk List: What Keeps a Geopolitical Strategist Up at Night

Please join Peter Zeihan for a webinar on June 5th at 12:00 PM EST on a topic that is near and dear to the hearts of the Zeihan on Geopolitics team: geopolitical risk. This webinar will feature Peter’s reasonable-fear list, focused on issues that in his opinion have the most potential to impact market outcomes.

The Western world is beginning to entertain the conversation over the use of Western weapons targeting Russian systems within Russia. There are a handful of countries that have issued their support, but will it be enough?

Countries like Sweden, Poland and France are leading the charge, Germany has recently jumped on the train, and momentum is building. The initial rationale behind preventing Ukraine from using these weapons to strike within Russia was to prevent (or try to avoid) escalation. However, the mounting support in Europe has put the pressure on the Americans to make a decision, and soon.

Given the incompetence that has filtered its way into Putin’s inner circle, this could be a strategic window for the Western world to act – and the Ukrainians are getting a little trigger happy.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Hello, everybody. Peter Zeihan here, coming to you in Genoa. Piazza Villa Vittoria. the news today is that the Europeans, and to a lesser extent, the Americans, are debating how involved they want to give in the Ukraine war in terms of weapons and targeting. the idea what the Ukrainians have been asking for for some time and what the Scandinavians and the Central Europeans have picked up on, is as long as Russia is on the attack in places like Kharkiv and Luhansk and the nuts, that they should have the ability to use whatever weapons systems they can get their hands on to target Russian weapons systems and launchers within Russia if they’re part of an active conflict. The idea being that if you see that there is an air base just on the other side of the border where fighter bombers are taking off day in, day out and bombing civilian locations in Ukraine, then it’s silly to not use things like mid-range missiles to go after that air base to this point in order to contain the escalation threat.

the West has pretty much put a blanket ban on that sort of weapon strikes from the Ukrainians, basically saying that if it comes from the United States or Germany or natural in general, then you can’t use it to strike targets within Russia proper that is now weakening. we got three things in play here. First, the countries in question number two, the personalities within Russia, and then three next steps.

So first let’s talk about the countries, Sweden, Poland and the rest of the countries in northeastern and Central Europe have been advocating for this for some time. And so the countries that are most likely to bear some of the blowback being on board, you know, that it’s going to happen sooner or later. The question is how and when.

the in the last couple of weeks, the country that has really stepped in started to argue from the Polish and the Swedish point of view is France. And, Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, is saying that this is obviously a silly restriction and we need to release it. that just left the more conservative members of the coalition who are really, really concerned about what the blowback will be.

But in the last week, all of Schultz, the chancellor of Germany, who has been consistently the most conservative voice in the alliance on pretty much everything regarding this war and said that, yeah, this is something that has to happen and that really puts pressure on the United States to act as well. Right now, the largest country that is saying flat out maybe no, no, but whoa, whoa whoa, let’s let’s think about this slowly.

Is, the government here? Maloney of Italy has basically said it’s kind of funny. She basically called out the French for being French, for having seen some big things but not actually do anything, which is, you know, kind of cute. from my point of view, anyone who it takes the French just like that. But, the point is that this conversation is happening.

It’s already happened at the EU level, and there’s not necessarily been a green light, but the conversation is building steam. And the real question, of course, is the United States is going to go along, since that’s where most weapons come from. But, but, but the fact that the Germans are on board, I mean, it’s probably only a matter of time now how this normally goes down is that one country will say, this weapon system can be used for this purpose, and they will be used and they will test the Russian red line.

And if nothing happens, then everyone piles on. That’s what happened with the same artillery that’s happened with the Storm Sherman missiles. And that’s probably going to now happen for targeting things within Russia proper. That just leaves the personalities. How serious is what’s going on in Russia in terms of the counter threats? Is this a red line that starts a nuclear war?

Well, you look at the people involved. The person who has been making most of the threats is Dmitry Medvedev, who is the former president of the country. Which makes you think that maybe he’s kind of important, but he’s not. He’s incompetent. He’s basically an intern. And Vladimir Putin only keeps him around because he looks Putin’s ass. Just so, and so when you see him making the threat, you know, it’s not all that serious.

It would be serious if it was coming from someone, say, Nikola Patrushev, who is the guy who used to run the entire intelligence system. But in the last month, he’s basically been fired from his position and downgraded. So what Putin has discovered is the people that he has surrounded himself are really good at talking a good game, but not necessarily good at prosecuting a war.

So he sacked his defense minister and brought him into a less dangerous position, put an economist and a bean counter in charge of the Defense Ministry, which in time, if it works, will make for a more competent defense industry, not because people will know how to fight, but because it won’t all be stolen. But then at the National Security Council, he basically just put his crony in there and fired the guy who can actually find Canada on a map.

That’s Patrushev. So we’re in this flux when it comes to Russian foreign policy making, an especially strategic decision making, which I think the Europeans have picked up on and why they’re having this conversation now. Because right now, Putin’s inner circle is anything but competent. At a minimum, it needs more time to find its feet. After this most recent of a shakeup.

And that’s a great time to up the ante in a way that the Russians are going to find very, very, very uncomfortable.

Peter Zeihan’s Risk List Webinar & Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russian Container Radars

WE’RE ONLY ONE WEEK AWAY FROM THE WEBINAR!

Peter Zeihan’s Risk List: What Keeps a Geopolitical Strategist Up at Night

Do you struggle with sleepless nights spent pondering the political challenges in the US? Or wake up in a puddle of sweat because you had a nightmare about material shortages? Or maybe you find yourself staring at walls thinking about social media impacts on national security?

Well, I might not be able to help with all that, but if you join me on Wednesday, June 5 for the ‘Risk List’ Webinar, at least you’ll be in good company…and I assure you, we’ll have plenty to discuss.

Click the button below to learn more or register for the webinar!

Now onto today’s video. We’re looking at the Ukraine War and the increase of drone assaults on Russia. Specifically, we’ll be looking at the attacks on container radars used for aircraft and ballistic missile detection.

Ukraine is expecting shipments of some Western F-16s, so taking out these container radars could alter the strategic perceptions in Moscow and Washington. When we’re talking about ballistic missile response times, even seconds could alter the outcome…so if these radars go down, who knows what might happen.

All of the new technologies entering the battlefield are necessitating a reevaluation of strategic calculations across all fronts. From shifting away from the mutually assured destruction paradigm, to destabilizing the delicate balance of power, we’re heading towards a new reality.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from Genoa. today we’re talking about something that I’m a little concerned about from the strategic point of view. but first, I want to tell you about a webinar we’ve got coming up next week on the 5th of June, where the issues that I really worry about are going to be in front and center, issues relating to how cocaine can damage the American economic experience, how American politics are at the moment in a position makes it difficult to solve American problems, shortages and electricity and critical material processing, and why social media has unexpectedly and problematically become a national security issue.

All that and more on the webinar. But for today, it’s a double duty of something I worry about. Plus an update on the Ukraine war. Over the past few weeks, the Ukrainians have been launching more and more drone assaults into Russia, and they have now struck something called a container radar in Russia, at least three times two different facilities.

container radars are something that allows the Russians to be aware of aircraft within about a 3000 kilometer range. And since the Ukrainians are about to get American and Western F-16s, the Ukrainians would like to take out those radars as much as they can before the new aircraft come into play. But that is not the primary purpose for those radars.

The primary purpose is for ballistic missile detection. And when it comes to dealing with nuclear weapons, timing is everything. Seconds matter because the flight times are so short. So if the Ukrainians manage to deliberately, of course, take some of these radars off line, it alters the strategic perceptions on both sides of the Atlantic. Whether you’re in Moscow or Washington about what is possible and how much time you have to prepare for something going horribly, horribly wrong.

Now, this sort of readjustment of strategic perceptions this was always going to happen is the technologies involved change, as we’ve seen with the Ukraine war, as we’ve seen in Saudi Arabia, with Iran, the introduction of drones is changing the strategic calculus in a great many ways. And so we were always going to evolve beyond the mutually assured destruction compact that has kept us safe these last 70 years.

The idea is that if both sides have a weapons, and if both sides have the ability to take the weapons in flight, then there is this parallelization. if any desire to launch the weapons, because we all go down together, well, if you damage the detection methods, then that parallelization, that deliberate parallelization might be weakened and all of a sudden we’re in a bit of a looser strategic situation when it comes to the big boy weapons.

We’re now in a position where the war has evolved to the point that major strategic questions in both Russia and the United States have to be evaluated through a different lens. And it’s not clear that we’re ready for that on either side. Of course, we’re never ready for that on either side. You introduce a new weapon system. Everything changes around it, and we’re now seeing the opening stages of a complete readjustment and how we perceive the wider world.

The Biden Admin Liquidates Northeast Gas Reserves

WE’RE ONLY ONE WEEK AWAY FROM THE WEBINAR!

Peter Zeihan’s Risk List: What Keeps a Geopolitical Strategist Up at Night

Please join Peter Zeihan for a webinar on June 5th at 12:00 PM EST on a topic that is near and dear to the hearts of the Zeihan on Geopolitics team: geopolitical risk. This webinar will feature Peter’s reasonable-fear list, focused on issues that in his opinion have the most potential to impact market outcomes.

If you’re planning a coast-to-coast road trip through the US, you might want to wait until the Biden administration can liquidate the northeast gasoline reserves, here’s why…

Congress has mandated that these gas reserves be liquidated for a handful of reasons – being expensive and dangerous make that list – but there’s a few more important things at play. The 2nd phase of the shale revolution has helped bolster US refining capacity, meaning these stockpiles just aren’t needed.

So, if this liquidation can help take the sting out of energy prices for the average American, especially at a time when usage is at its highest, that’s probably not the worst thing in the world.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from a train in France, which I thought would be a great backdrop to talk about Gas Reserves. what tend to harm at the moment is the Biden administration is in the process of liquidating the Northeast Gasoline reserve. Now, this is something that was built up a little over a decade ago to make sure.

And it’s seasonal demand surges, especially in the summer, don’t cause market problems. Were God permitted app shortages, toll tolls from boring. We’ll be back paying for back. anyway, that was the end. This is now, Congress has recently passed a law basically mandating implementation of the reserve because storing fuel was expensive and dangerous. Certainly more expensive a dangerous the story crude oil.

And the United States now has the world’s largest refining capacity. So over the course of the last ten years, that could have gone through the second phase of the shale revolution, where it’s not so much about oil or little gas now was starting to process all the stuff that we’re producing. So the United States in the last 25 years has not been the world’s largest consumer of oil or an oil, largest imported, refined products, now the largest exporter of all of those very sort of in addition to electricity, in addition to natural gas sitting at a propane input, in addition to pretty much every energy and processed energy product on the planet.

And so this reserve just isn’t necessary anymore. It’s an unnecessary expense. so, you know, totes operate, there’s also, of course, a little football. And, you know, remember, this is a mandated thing that the Biden administration is doing. But the Biden administration, of course, as the executive, has the ability to micromanage how it is done. So the reserve, which is about a million barrels of gasoline or about 40 million gallons of gasoline, anyway, so the Biden administration and decide how and when and where it is released.

Well, it’s the northeast reserves all fuels in the northeast. So that’s kind of spoken for. as for the win, the release will be between the 1st of July and Memorial Day. So. Right in the heart of, the driving season, if I had statesman demand happens to be at the highest. the United States is having an issue with inflation right now.

It’s something the Biden administration is worried about for its own survival. And so taking some of the sting out of energy prices at a time, honoring the energy prices and gasoline prices are highest makes a lot of, sense. So and that that is what is going on. And, I’m going to go out of my way.

The (Much Extended) Agony of Israel and Gaza

WEBINAR – Peter Zeihan’s Risk List: What Keeps a Geopolitical Strategist Up at Night

Please join Peter Zeihan for a webinar on June 5th at 12:00 PM EST on a topic that is near and dear to the hearts of the Zeihan on Geopolitics team: geopolitical risk. This webinar will feature Peter’s reasonable-fear list, focused on issues that in his opinion have the most potential to impact market outcomes.

I’ve avoided talking about the Israel and Gaza conflict as much a possible (given that there’s no favorable outcomes for anyone involved), but some recent changes have forced my hand.

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is reaching critical levels due to massive destruction and severe shortages of resources. The real kicker is Israel’s renewed offensive in northern Gaza; the presence of Hamas fighters and bodies of hostages in previously “cleared” areas has revealed some MASSIVE shortcomings in Israeli intelligence.

Hamas will continue to recruit new fighters, and do so rather effectively given the harsh conditions in Gaza. Israel will attempt to sort out its intelligence issues and military struggles. And all of this is an unfortunate indication that this conflict has no resolution in sight.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from the via della Costa, which is the old Roman road that was used to transport everything, through the Ligurian coast of Italy back in the day. today is the 27th of May. You’ll clearly get this tomorrow. Anyway, today we’re going to talk about something that I, as a rule, have been avoiding.

And that’s the Gaza conflict. this is one of those intractable conflicts where there’s really no version of it that goes well for anyone. And when I first addressed this issue back in November, shortly after the October attacks by Hamas into Israel, if for those of you don’t remember the specifics, basically we had several hundred to a few thousand, two low hanging, Hamas fighters cross into Israel, kill over a thousand people, engage in a pillage of raping and destruction, and ultimately kidnaped, a fair number of hostages and then back to Gaza.

Israel shortly thereafter launched an invasion of the Gaza Strip, where Hamas is based, launching what has now been a six month conflict that has generated no end of bad press and horrors for everyone involved. there’s no version of this that ends with a settlement. Israel has been deeply wounded and isn’t going to stop. And Hamas has absolutely no problem sheltering behind the civilian population in Gaza.

And Israel has no problem targeting the civilian populations as part of an effort to get to Hamas. So there’s no there’s no friendly outcome here. and so I’ve been avoiding talking about it because when you have an intractable conflict like this, all you have is the horror. And both sides, based on your point of view, are doing horrible things.

So, I’ve been avoiding any work because we’ve had a an unfortunate development that makes this situation worse. over the last 2 to 3 months, Israel has been pushing steadily south, basically purging the territories of Hamas fighters as they go. And, the last reasonable estimate that I have seen suggests that somewhere upwards of two thirds of Hamas fighters have been killed.

So from a certain point of view, you know, if you get that number up to 100%, then the war’s over. Then we can get on to the next stage of reconstruction and figuring out what a post Hamas Gaza looks like. And that is absolutely the Israeli goal. what has most people occupied at the moment is that, the people in Gaza, the civilians who have has little to do with Hamas as they can pull off, have been compressed into an ever smaller territory as the Israelis have gone section by section through the Gaza Strip to cleanse it of the fighters.

as of about two weeks ago, we were anticipating something called the Rafah offensive. Rafah is the southernmost major city in, the Gaza Strip. And the hope, hope, hope was that we would be approaching the end game of this conflict. The idea is that all of Hamas has now been boxed into that section, and all Israel has to do is go in there and shoot them out.

Now, the humanitarian side of this, of course, is atrocious because as you’re basically taking the most densely populated chunk of territory in the world and bit by bit, removing the areas that civilians can go to. a humanitarian, crisis has erupted. about 60, 65% of the housing stock in Gaza has been destroyed already. So what’s left of people who were already living in what was basically a prison camp are now living in a compressed zone, raising less than a quarter of the land area.

So just, you know, a humanitarian tragedy. We are already seeing famine, at least on the scale of what went down in Venezuela two years ago and probably approaching what happened in Ethiopia in the 1980s. keep in mind that Gaza has nothing. they don’t generate their own power. They can’t grow their own food. there’s no value added manufacturing whatsoever.

They basically subsist on aid. So that’s where we were. And then about ten days ago, Israel announced that they were renewing an eye offensive in the northern part of Gaza, an area that supposedly they cleared months ago. Kabbalah, the refugee camp. I don’t know why they call it a refugee camp. The whole place is a refugee camp.

was the specific spot. It’s a place that used to be a Hamas stronghold, before the war began. And they have the Israelis have since completed that assault. And so here’s the problem. If this is an area that has already been cleansed, there shouldn’t be any Hamas fighters there at all. But what we’re learning is that Israeli intelligence is not nearly as good under the current government as it should be.

I mean, if there is any issue that Israel should be obsessed with, it’s what’s going on in the Palestinian territories because they’re hard up against them. And it was a failure of intelligence of the current government, that allowed the attacks of last October to occur. And now there’s been a follow up failure. And that even in areas that have been cleansed, Hamas is operating, suggesting that for the last six months of routine, what was the Israeli effort hasn’t been nearly as effective as they thought.

And in the last couple of days, we’ve gotten the results of this new Kabbalah offensive, and they found the bodies of some of the hostages. So it’s not just that the Israelis missed these people as they were going through the first time. They missed what was one of the primary worrying was just getting their people back, which means we’re entering into a new phase of the conflict where there is no end game.

Israel under the current government seems to be incapable of fighting this war to what the Israelis would consider a reasonable conclusion, and instead they’re getting dragged into a Afghan style semi urban campaign of just guerrilla suppression in an area that’s roughly one eighth, one ninth the size of Rhode Island and has a population of about 3 million.

This doesn’t end without something very seriously cracking and breaking, and it is not clear to me at the moment what that might be. on the Palestinian side, Hamas has now the perfect recruitment system. They are in a land war of occupation on their home turf. There are 3 million people living in poverty and starvation. That is the perfect recruiting tool.

And Hamas has been using it very aggressively and very successfully, would take a degree of PR incompetence to not be able to recruit in that environment. And on the Israeli side, the only way that this goes well for them is if they can break through this intelligence logjam and actually destroy Hamas faster than I can recruit. I don’t think that’s possible anymore unless you just kill everyone.

and so that’s very unfortunately the situation at the moment. And I don’t see it improving any time soon. I would love, love to end this one on a little bit of a positive note, but what little hope that I had that this conflict was about to wrap up is now gone, and we’re looking at something far more intractable.

Sorry.

Why France and Azerbaijan Are Fighting Over New Caledonia

WEBINAR – Peter Zeihan’s Risk List: What Keeps a Geopolitical Strategist Up at Night

Please join Peter Zeihan for a webinar on June 5th at 12:00 PM EST on a topic that is near and dear to the hearts of the Zeihan on Geopolitics team: geopolitical risk. This webinar will feature Peter’s reasonable-fear list, focused on issues that in his opinion have the most potential to impact market outcomes.

It’s no surprise that the French like to be “involved” in as many places as possible, but what’s going on with the current rebellion in the French protectorate of New Caledonia?

The independence movement is gaining traction in New Caledonia, but the French are changing electoral laws to prevent the movement from succeeding. Given France’s recent moves in Armenia, they’ve attracted the attention of Azerbaijan to this little foothold in the Southwest Pacific.

While Azerbaijan might not have the most experience in supporting dissidents, they do have the financial resources to piss off the French. Tensions are rising and this little island known for nickel mining might be getting more interesting than usual.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Nothing says power politics quite like a castle. So I thought this backdrop would be a great way to talk about the Southwest Pacific. specifically, we’ve got a rebellion going on in the province of New Caledonia. It’s an island that’s a French protectorate colony. And we’re starting to see people walking around with flags of Azerbaijan. So, you know, this requires a little bit of unpack.

So, first of all, this is a territory that survived as a French protectorate. even after the rest of the colonies were hived off. And, on purpose or not. In the aftermath of World War two, during the decolonization period, the French held on to New Caledonia for two reasons. Number one, strategic position in the Southwest Pacific gives them a leg in that part of the world.

And second, and from an economic point of view, far more importantly, New Caledonia is the third largest mine for nickel in the world. Nickel, obviously is using stainless steel, and of late it’s becoming far more important for green transition technologies. Everything from solar to, electrical grade steel to electric vehicles. Now, New Caledonia has had a kind of a rough time over the last few decades, because their nickel isn’t all that economically viable.

the mines are the best in the world and far more importantly, takes a lot of energy to process nickel. And to be perfectly blunt, if you’re on a small island in the South Pacific and it’s really, really expensive. So it hasn’t broken even for much of the last 30 years. And even companies like Glencore, which are how should I put this?

Typically not bound by a lot of ethical concerns are in the process of trying to get out. but but but but but if the green transition really does happen, we need ten times as much nickel. And that’s going to change the math for pretty much everything involving the island, which is why we’ve got the unrest right now.

There is an independence movement that is gaining steam, and the French are in the process of making sure that it cannot succeed. So they’ve changed the electoral laws. It used to be that if you had been in the province, on the island for more than 25 years, you could vote in local elections. And that gave the local Kanak minority majority status.

But, the French are in the process of changing that. So you only had to have lived there for ten years. And if you include all the mainland French imports to the island that have moved in the last decade, all or in the last 15 years, you’ve got a very different picture and the independence movement will never succeed.

So that’s what’s going on to the French point of view. That’s what’s going on from the island point of view. That just leaves the observers. How do you flags? as we talked about recently, France is getting involved in the caucuses, specifically helping out Armenia, where it can diplomatically thinking that that’s going to give them a leg up in the caucuses.

And that might provide them with some diplomatic heft that they’re losing in West Africa. Azerbaijan’s on the other side of that conflict, as a region in Armenia for a number of wars. And at the moment, Azerbaijan’s doing a lot better for a number of reasons, twice the population, 20 times the economic strength, much more powerful military and has recently kicked the Armenians ass in a couple of regional wars.

Well, so France mucking about in Armenia has triggered a counter response, with Azerbaijan now monkeyed around in New Caledonia. Now Azerbaijan brings nothing to this fight. They have no experience in supporting it with dissidents. They don’t know how to do paramilitary attacks at all. But what they do have is a metric butt ton of money. This is a country with barely 10 million people who have a million barrels per day of oil exports, and they can throw a lot of cash at a lot of things, at a lot of places if they want to.

And for their first big trick, they’re trying to sponsor a revolution in the South Pacific just to piss France off. It’s working.

Why Are the French Getting Involved with Armenia? || Ask Peter

WEBINAR – Peter Zeihan’s Risk List: What Keeps a Geopolitical Strategist Up at Night

Please join Peter Zeihan for a webinar on June 5th at 12:00 PM EST on a topic that is near and dear to the hearts of the Zeihan on Geopolitics team: geopolitical risk. This webinar will feature Peter’s reasonable-fear list, focused on issues that in his opinion have the most potential to impact market outcomes.

Today we’ll be looking at why the French are considering sending military aid to Armenia…and no, its not because they’re looking to swap croissant and nazook recipes.

Let’s disregard NATO and EU ties to Azerbaijan for this discussion, because this move by the French is more motivated by Turkey’s support of Azerbaijan and Iran’s declining regional influence. There’s also some Armenian ex-pats who might be helping push this forward.

The French are coping with their loss of influence in West Africa by expanding their reach to Armenia in hopes that it will help give them some influence in a new sphere. This move would also help to position the French against the rising Turkish influence in the region, so two birds I guess.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

France recently has been, entering conversations about military assistance for aid or supply to Armenia. France, you know, famously has a large Armenian ex-pat population, but NATO, the EU, very broadly have deep energy trade monetization ties with Azerbaijan. is there a future quagmire facing, the individual elements of EU member states, the EU as an organization, NATO membership, with what seems to be a intensifying conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

This is this is purely a France issue. NATO’s actually involved with the Armenia Azerbaijan issue. If anything, it’s going to be decided by which direction the two other powers in the region decide to go Iran and Turkey. In the case of Iran, they don’t bring a lot to the table anymore, especially if the Russians are out in.

The Russians are out. the Turks obviously out of a partnership and an ethnic relationship with the Azerbaijanis, and that is getting more robust by the day. And Azerbaijan has proven to be a wonderful testbed for Turkish drone technology, which has absolutely obliterated any strategic independence at the Armenians may have once had. So the French basically are playing a little bit of a double game.

the French have lost their position. West Africa, which from a strategic and an economic point of view is no big loss. But it was a hit to the prestige. And they absolutely blame the Russians and absolutely accurately blame the Russians for that. So now the French are in the process of doing a strategic realignment. And that means, first and foremost, take a good, hard look at the interests of the country that are causing them to do that.

And that is the Russians. So the French are considering putting troops in Ukraine very seriously, in order to provide a bulwark for the Ukrainians and most importantly, for the French to learn about all these changes in technology, as we saw with the Azerbaijani, Armenia war of late, as well as Ukraine war. Drone drones are the newest thing and the French have no experience with that.

So in both of these theaters, that’s one of the things they’ve got their eyes on in terms of the Caucasus, the French have a little bit more room to maneuver there than, say, the Germans or the Italians, because they’re not dependent upon as of any energy at all. and we are seeing a rising what’s the right here interaction of Turkish interests and French interests.

Because as the United States steps back from a lot of things, the eastern med becomes a potential zone of competition. And if that turns harsh, the French are gonna want some cards to play on another front. As a region, Armenia, the Caucasus plays into that. I’m not saying that these two powers have to not get along. I’m saying that they need to figure out whether they’re going to get along or not.

And France establishing a few flags on the ground in Armenia is a way to do that. Doesn’t mean they’re going to be hostile. It means they’re going to be rubbing up against each other more often. And this is preparation.

What Is the Future of Chinese Expansion and Energy? || Ask Peter

WEBINAR – Peter Zeihan’s Risk List: What Keeps a Geopolitical Strategist Up at Night

Please join Peter Zeihan for a webinar on June 5th at 12:00 PM EST on a topic that is near and dear to the hearts of the Zeihan on Geopolitics team: geopolitical risk. This webinar will feature Peter’s reasonable-fear list, focused on issues that in his opinion have the most potential to impact market outcomes.

We’ve got some more interview style questions for you today! We’ll be focusing on China, specifically looking at the potential for Chinese energy independence and if any countries surrounding China should be worried about an invasion/resource grab.

While it may appear that the Chinese have access to significant shale oil deposits, the reality of their energy outlook isn’t so pretty. Most of the Chinese lake bed shales are waxy and produce only a fraction of the energy that American deposits produce. In addition, the location of these deposits just so happens to be in a historically secessionist region, so that helps limit development.

On the Chinese expansion front, the prospects aren’t looking too hot. With limited military capabilities and geographical constraints, expansion towards resource-rich neighbors isn’t feasible. My bigger concern is what happens after Chinese demand for these resources falls off and the countries sending this stuff to China lose that stream of income…

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

On paper, China has considerable, shale oil deposits. One of the Chinese, especially given their history of, massive state expenditure, doing more of their shale deposits, especially contrasted with their massive energy import dependance. Technically, China has the world’s second largest shale deposits. so potentially it’s very, very cool. And that’s certainly the failure hasn’t been from a lack of trying.

The problem is it’s not very shale. Sovereign shale is shale that comes out, former ocean beds. so saltwater pressure, that sort of thing. Most of China’s shales are, I can’t pronounce word of some, like, extremely stringent. Thank you. Lake bed shells. so a lot more debris in them, if you will. And as a result, are kind of waxy.

Well, when you frack a maritime shale, it’s hard and it cracks and you get the energy out. If you frack wax, it just kind of sloshes around a little bit and nothing happens. So it turns out that even if the petroleum density and China shales are the same as American shales, they can only get about 5% the energy out for every dollar that they put into the effort, even assuming that they were really good at the technology and they’re at best so-so.

So only about 5% of the wells that the Chinese have drilled at this point even remotely approach break even. And all of those shales are in Sichuan and Sichuan. It has in the past been a secessionist region in China. So the last thing that the hyper centralized Communist Party is China is going to do is to exploit a new type of energy in a part of the country that might one day go the wrong way.

and even within that, the volume that they’ve been able to get just warrant does not seem to justify a large scale expenditure. So they’ve steadily revised down their estimates. I think they’re now down to less than 2% of what they thought they were to get 15 years ago. I think for most people who follow you regularly, or read the news, it’s no surprise that China, mainland China has its sights on, if one day possible, securing the island of Taiwan, bringing one of these, an errant province back under the influence of the central government.

Taiwan by itself, though, is a relatively resource poor place. And we look at China’s import needs, economic development plans. There are neighboring regions closer to home Mongolia, parts of Central Asia, parts of southern Russia that have a lot of the resources that they’re importing. Anyways. Is there a risk to these areas of a future Chinese land grab occupation, cross-border, conflict, kind of like you see between, India and China, the Himalayas.

But obviously without a mountain range in between them. I think there’s a lot of risk, but not necessarily China. China can’t go north. Will get the Russians have made that very clear. They don’t have the Navy to conquer a place like Japan or the Philippines or Indonesia. Taiwan is theoretically a possibility. But if they pick a fight over that, the chances of another naval power interrupting their energy and their food inflows and the merchandise exports would destroy China’s industrial estate.

it can’t go meaningfully southwest because of the Himalayas. And if they go south, you know, they tried that in 79 with Vietnam. They got their ass handed to them just as much as we did it. So there’s nowhere really for China to go and break a country in a meaningful way. I mean, there’s Mongolia, but special case, there’s not enough people there for really the matter.

And they’re not a huge player in international markets. but I’m more concerned that if you remove China from the equation and Chinese demand for a lot of these minerals crash, you get two things going on at once. Number one, you got the gutting of the income that a lot of these mid-tier countries rely and on to do everything that they do.

And then number two, it’s unclear where the United States was going to be a lot more narcissistic and focused on its own industrialization. We’ll need all of them. And we’re certainly going to preference specific partners like the Philippines, like Canada, like Mexico, like Australia, like Chile. And so if you’re not on that short list where you kind of get under the American security, your at worst economic umbrella, you need to find a new, for lack of a better word, daddy.

And if it can’t be China, it’s not going to be the United States. Your list of other options have baggage. Japan might be related to the business. And if you’re an East Asia, you remember how that went last time. It’s not that I think that the Japanese are looking to go bonzai on everybody again, but it’s going to be lingering there in the back of your mind.

As for the other countries that have projection power, Turkey for it. France. You know, these are all countries with a lot of baggage when it comes to former colonial relationships. Now, I wouldn’t expect it’s to be a neo colonial conquering because the power difference between these states and their former colonies, it’s not nearly as lopsided as it used to be.

I think it would be more of a partnership, but everyone is going to have to find a friend, and you’re going to have to keep the friend interested. And you don’t have to negotiate every step of that process. Go. It’s a much more complex world than what we had during the Cold War. Even during the colonial era. It’s it’s going to be messy, and not everyone is going to be able to pull it off.

Why the US Is Ditching Coal as an Energy Source

WEBINAR – Peter Zeihan’s Risk List: What Keeps a Geopolitical Strategist Up at Night

Please join Peter Zeihan for a webinar on June 5th at 12:00 PM EST on a topic that is near and dear to the hearts of the Zeihan on Geopolitics team: geopolitical risk. This webinar will feature Peter’s reasonable-fear list, focused on issues that in his opinion have the most potential to impact market outcomes.

Other than a slight bump in sales during the holidays (shoutout to all the naughty kids), coal has been on the decline for quite a while now. With more environmentally friendly alternatives surging into the spotlight, how does coal fit into the energy framework?

Coal once played a critical role in the US, but political shifts are pushing more and more states towards eco-friendly options like solar and wind. Even natural gas is getting some attention as it becomes more economically viable and a cleaner alternative to coal.

Although the US is stepping away from coal, the international market will likely continue to do well for years to come.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Dockman Valley above Denver, Colorado. today we’re talking about coal. coal has been the primary fuel of industrialization since industrialization started 150, 200 years ago. but obviously it has fallen on some tough times, and it has definitely fallen out of favor for carbon related and pollution related issues.

in the United States, at its peak, coal in the modern era, coal was providing about half of all electricity generation. Or was the thermal input for half of all electricity generation. So as much as everything else put together and now it has slipped not just below natural gas, but it’s starting to duke it out with wind. and as of calendar year 2023, about 16% came from coal.

So it’s already fallen below nuclear on most days as well. Anyway, the reason is twofold. the first one is politics. We have chosen to favor solar and wind in the fuel mix wherever possible, and that has displace a little bit of coal. Not as much as you might think, though. coal is what we know as a baseload fuel, because you basically, once you start the boiler, you don’t stop it.

You can you can kind of slowly tear it up and down. But getting a coal power plant fully running to full efficiency takes the better part of a day. And so if you are spinning it up and spinning it down every night as the sun sets or rises, you’re not going to be using your coal nearly as efficiently.

So like with nuclear, you tend to have the thing running full out the whole time, providing that baseload capacity. And you leave it to things like natural gas that can be spun up faster to handle all the incremental increases in demand. So, yes, solar and wind have had an impact that has been negative, but not a very big one.

the big one has come from natural gas. unique among the world’s natural gas producers, the United States produces, its natural gas is a byproduct of other operations, specifically of oil production and natural gas liquids production in the shale fields. And the natural gas just kind of comes up as a byproduct. Now, that’s not making it necessarily a classical waste product, but it is pretty close because people have to build take capacity to get rid of the natural gas, even though they know that the margins for it and the profit from it are not very high.

So if you’re in the Bakken in North Dakota or the Permian in New Mexico, in Texas, or the Eagle Ford in southern Texas, you have a problem with natural gas and you just have to get rid of it however you can. but remember that the shale revolution wasn’t originally about oil production. It was about natural gas production.

So we now have 20 years of expertise in producing pure natural gas, or drawing natural gas, as they like to call it. And even in those fields where there’s no oil or very little liquids at all. the cost production curve is very, very low. in fact, in a number of places like the Marcellus in Pennsylvania and Ohio and West Virginia, the full cycle breakeven price for a lot of natural gas production is well below $2 per thousand cubic feet, and coal just can’t compete with that.

In part, it’s because the really easy to exploit seams were gotten 50 to 100 years ago, and in part it’s because the there’s a population disconnect. most of our good call, the anthracite, the hard coal comes from places like the powder River basin. in the vicinity of Wyoming. And so it’s a long way to truck or rail that to a population center.

Or the other stuff is in Kentucky and West Virginia, which is usually by two minutes, more polluting, not as much calorie content. And so it generally is burned more locally. And it’s not exactly a high demand product for other areas who are trying to reduce air pollution. Well, natural gas burns cleaner. It generates less, fumes. It generates less carbon.

It doesn’t have the sulfur byproducts. It doesn’t have mercury. There’s no natural gas ash for disposal on the other end. It’s just a simple, simpler process. Once you have the physical infrastructure in place, and this isn’t 2010, folks, there are plenty of pipelines to take the natural gas away. So everyone who is wanted to convert from coal to natural gas pretty much has at this point.

And all that’s left are the holdouts, where the local economics make a little bit more sense for coal places like Kentucky and West Virginia. And there we have another problem. the two senators who have been most in favor of keeping coal on the fuel lists are Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. And both of them are in the process of stepping back from public life.

It’s not that other representatives from this area won’t fill those shoes, but they won’t do what they’re sold with the same amount of gravitas. And so you’ve seen states throughout the Midwest and the South who used to be primarily coal powered, largely cut the fuel out of their fuel mix almost completely. And so the political coalition that has been protecting coal for the last 30 years is pretty much gone.

I don’t mean to suggest that we’re going to stop using coal completely in the next five years or anything like this, but it’s never coming back because most of the power plants that burn the stuff are over 40 years old. And as a rule, 40 years is about the life cycle for a power plant. If you’re going to extend its life beyond that time, you have to do some expensive refits and you have to make sure that it’s going to make sense for you going ten, 20, 30 years in the future.

And for coal, that future isn’t very bright. If there is a future for American coal, it’s not going to be in America. One of the things that people forget in an age of green politics is that oil and natural gas are the low carbon fossil fuels that are internationally traded. And if you break down globalization, the ability of large portions of the world to source those two fuels withers.

And in that sort of environment, people will be clamoring for whatever sort of fuel they can get, and that will make them turn to American oil and natural gas, of course, but will probably also give American coal a fresh lease on life. It just won’t be burned here.

The End of the World is Just The Beginning

Disunited NAtions

The Absent Superpower

The accidental superpower

The End of the World is Just The Beginning

Disunited Nations

The Absent Superpower

The Absent Superpower

The End of the World is Just The Beginning

Disunited NAtions

The Absent Superpower

The accidental superpower

The End of the World is Just The Beginning

Disunited Nations

The Absent Superpower

The Absent Superpower

The End of the World is Just The Beginning

Disunited NAtions

The Absent Superpower

The accidental superpower

The End of the World is Just The Beginning

Disunited Nations

The Absent Superpower

The Absent Superpower

The End of the World is Just The Beginning

Disunited NAtions

The Absent Superpower

The accidental superpower

The End of the World is Just The Beginning

Disunited Nations

The Absent Superpower

The Absent Superpower

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