Fentanyl Isn’t as Lethal…What Happened?

DEA photo of fentanyl on a pencil tip

How about some positive news to start your day? A study was just released showing that fentanyl deaths in the US peaked in 2022 or early 2023 and have been declining since.

The decline in fatalities can be attributed to a few factors: less potent doses, fewer users, safer consumption methods, and more widespread availability of Narcan (Naloxone). Despite these improvements, this crisis is far from over; the ease with which Fentanyl can be produced makes it a sustained priority for the US.

Regardless, I’ll take my good news where I can get it, especially when it comes to the drug epidemic.

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Orlando with some good news. The good news is not that I am in Orlando. It’s that the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill has recently released a report that pulls together all the statistics from all the health authorities in the United States. And according to the data, at some point in 2022 or early 2023. 

Fentanyl deaths peaked and have been falling dramatically since then, about one third down on average across the country and in North Carolina, specifically down more than half. This is like the first good news we’ve had in the fentanyl situation in quite some time. Quick review. Fentanyl is a synthetic opioid, so it is manufactured as opposed to grown and processed, which means that it can be produced faster and at a much lower cost than the natural but organic drugs that are processed with gasoline anyway, because of that, the time to target to get it into the system is a lot lower. 

And Graham, for Graham, it’s something like 500 times as powerful as cocaine or heroin. And that means a lot of people have shot up with it and just died. And it has been one of the leading causes of death in the United States for the last several years. So a one third drop is amazing news. We can probably attribute that drop to four main factors. 

First of all, the Mexicans who are producing this stuff, this is not coming from the cartels. This is coming from small mom and pops that are basically cooking the stuff up in a garage. And those folks have not been interfacing directly with customers. There’s a few supply chains for distribution between them and their customers. And so it took them a while to realize that they were just killing everybody. 

And that’s bad for business. So when they make it into, say, pills, they have bit, which are then, you know, dissolved or crushed or whatever. They’re making them less strong. So less than one third of the dose that they used to have a few years ago, giving people a chance to, you know, not die. Second, for the the addicts in the United States that are dying from fentanyl. 

You can only die once. And so if enough addicts do this drug, then the remaining addicts, you’re like, Maybe that’s not the high I’m after. Which brings us number to three. It’s like it’s. It is the high that you’re after. Maybe I shouldn’t just pop a pill or inject it. Maybe I should crush it, turn it into something I can smoke, and that way I can meter how much goes into me. 

Those three things combined have really contributed to a significant drop in lethality. And then finally, there’s something called Narcan, which is an anti narcotic drug that you can give to somebody who has overdose. And it’s now not just available in hospitals. You can actually get it and take it home with you. So if you have a friend or a loved one who you know is going to overdose, you can have the Narcan standing by and hopefully revive them in. 

Those four factors have really helped out. Does this mean that the fentanyl crisis is over? Oh God no. Again, it’s a synthetic. You can cook it up in your garage. And even if every single drug lab in Mexico were to vaporize tomorrow, the technology is so easy. We’re talking about, like, middle school to high school chemistry here that it would just pop up somewhere else like and say, I don’t know, Oklahoma or Illinois. 

So this is part of the drug milieu. Now we’re not going to get rid of it. All we can do is hope to cope with it better than we’ve been doing so far. Still, I’ll take my good news where I came.

Getting Ready for Trump’s Tariffs – TEASER

AI generated image of supply containers with the flags of the US, Mexico, and Canada on them

Today on Patreon, I released the full video covering Trump’s next round of tariffs set for early April and the impact they’ll have on the economy. For access to that video, join the Patreon now!

We’re also excited to announce our next LIVE Q&A session will be on April 9th! This is an exclusive perk for our Analyst members on Patreon. More info can be found on the Patreon page.

Click here to learn more

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Hey, all. Peter Zeihan here, coming to you from a bright and sunny Colorado today. Oh. This is going to be a big one. I have to warn you about the recession that’s just around the corner. Now, if you go back to my work from last year, I have been of the belief that we had no reason to fear recession at all. 

U.S. consumer spending was strong. Industrial construction spending had been hitting records for almost two years straight. Technological productivity was starting to pick up again. Things looked pretty good. There was no big debt overhang except for in the federal government. And that’s not new. And in private sphere, credit card Defaults, mortgage and car loan defaults were well below historic norms. 

They were simply off the record lows that we had in the aftermath of Covid. Things looked pretty good. But we’ve had a significant degradation in the environment in just the last several weeks, and it’s worth outlining to everyone on how we got to where we are, and especially what’s just around the corner. And if you were to sum it up in one word, it’s tariffs…

Why You Shouldn’t Expect Good Policy

Photo of the US White House

A nice convo with mom and dad can always yield some new ideas, so if all you get from this video is “give your parents a call” – I’ll consider that a win. The TLDR of our convo is that you shouldn’t expect good policy from the Trump Administration.

Following the purging of experienced US government officials, widespread dysfunction has broken out. The traditional flows of information have been severed; it used to start with technocrats that retain their positions across administrations due to their institutional knowledge > then deputy secretaries overseeing operations > then secretaries who pass the info along to the President. Well, many of those technocrats have been fired and replaced by political loyalists, sans expertise.

Many agencies are left with inexperienced loyalists not simply at the helm, but throughout the entire senior management. The result? Dysfunction, an inability to respond to crises effectively, and weakened American power on the global stage.

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Hey, all Peter Zeihan here come to you from Colorado. I just had a phone call with my mommy and my daddy where we talked about Trump, and, it occurred to me that, the conversation could really be distilled into a fun video about why we should not expect any meaningful positive evolutions in policy out of the Trump administration, really, from any department, the way the US federal system works is at the top of every department is something called a secretary. 

So secretary of defense, secretary of the interior, Secretary of energy, all that good stuff. And the primary job of the secretaries is not to make policy, is not to carry out the president’s wishes. It is to keep the president informed of what is going on in their little circle of the world. The job, of secretary is a political appointment has to be confirmed by the Senate. 

The next step down or the deputy secretaries. These are the people who are responsible for carrying out policy. For the most part. There are again, political appointees, again confirmed by the Senate. And they’re in charge of the day to day operations and giving the orders and managing the department directly. So three tier system so far, president’s at the top gives the orders. Secretary is one step down. They’re the ones who keep the president informed to make sure he understands what’s going on. 

And then the next step down are the deputy secretaries, whose job it is to manage the department and push through the president’s agenda. Below that, you get these multiple tiers. You get things called assistant secretaries and deputy assistant secretaries and executive secretaries. And this is where it shifts. And it’s a different department by department. But these are the folks who actually make the trains run on time. These are the people with the institutional knowledge of what’s going on in the department, in the sector. 

These are the people who have managed day in day out, the staff of the department in its many thousands over the years, they’ve been people who have been steeped in the culture, and they know the ins and outs of how things work. They’re the ones who actually implement any policy changes that come down. Now, the problem that we’re having with the Trump administration is that most of these positions, most of these technocratic positions, are still technically political appointees, but established by tradition over the last hundred and 40 years. 

They’re allowed to keep their positions year in, year out. Administration. After administration, because they’re the ones who know how the things work. And so it is very, very rare for a president to dismiss anyone at this lower level because this is where the knowledge is. Well, Trump came in and fired them all in every department, and in most of the cases, he replaced them with people who were politically loyal to him but actually have no experience in the sector in question. 

So a great example, in the Defense Department, all of these top levels, there’s only one person who has any experience in defense work, and it’s experience in as a contractor as opposed to policy or warfighting. So basically the top three levels of all the departments have been stripped of any knowledge of how these things work. 

Now, if your goal is to eliminate regulation by simply hobbling the institutions, you know, this is one way to do it. It’s the expensive way, and it’s making sure that you can’t react to anything in a crisis. So if something does go wrong in defense and energy and so on, there is no longer a cadre of people who are capable of informing the president of what’s going on because they don’t understand what’s going on in the sector. 

And then there is no longer cadre of people who can do anything about it, because those people have all been fired. You have to go down and your career civil servants, and hope that they’re competent enough and that they can up manage, the people above whom? Them who really aren’t familiar with the sector at all. Now, you go below all that political, pointy and managerial stuff, and eventually you get to the rank and file of the people who do the jobs. 

The Congress has mandated that you do. And of course, there’s different categories of people here as well. The two that have been in the news the most are the provisional employees and the temporary employees now, provisional employees or people who have been onboarded into their department within the last two years, typically. And so they don’t enjoy full civil service protections. 

They’re not full members of the union. And so does. And Elon Musk has really gone after this class of people and firing them because they’re easier to fire. But they haven’t really paid attention to what they were doing. They just fired anyone that they could. One problem here is that Congress has mandated and appropriated money and was signed by the president in the budget, for them to do X, Y, and Z the departments, and they need the staff to do that, including the provisional staff. 

So the question is whether or not the provisional staff can be fired. And in most cases where they have sued in the aftermath, either the labor boards or the unions or the workers themselves, they’ve won. 

Now, to the credit of some of these new secretaries who have come in, who do have some concept of what’s going on, a lot of these provisional and temporary workers were fired before they even got confirmed. So they came into their departments, denuded of staff, and discovered that they were playing catch up. 

Probably the best example of this that I have seen so far is Brooke Rollins of Agriculture. Now, I have said a couple of not nice things about her in the past. I need to apologize for that. She was raised on a farm. She has a degree in agricultural, development, so she has some concept of what’s going in agriculture. 

She just hasn’t worked in that space. For her career as an adult, she was in the law firm and then end up working for, Rick Perry. Rick Perry? No shit. Whoever the governor, Abbott, Governor Abbott of Texas now, as well as in a conservative think tank, she’s not dumb. She’s got a college degree, but she hasn’t worked in the agricultural space until now. 

So she comes in on her first job and realizes that, you know, we’re not testing for food borne diseases. The people who were testing for bird flu are gone. And so she is on her back foot trying to reconstruct this, and she has to do it by herself, because the people that Donald Trump has put under her don’t know what they’re doing. 

So for every positive story we have, like somebody like Secretary Rollins, we’ve got a negative story of someone like Pete Hegseth at defense or RFK Junior Health and Human Services. Who knows very little about their department and maybe has a couple of ideological or crazy, conspiracy level ideas about what they want to do. And they’re surrounding themselves with people like themselves who also don’t know anything about their departments. 

And the result is already pretty widespread dysfunction at higher cost than what we had before. And when I think of defense and I think of health and human services, I don’t think of optional departments. These are ones we kind of need now as policy continues to break down and as management of these systems continues to crack, it’s a question of what’s geopolitical and what’s not. 

I could spend months going through some of the disasters that are happening in domestic policy right now, but unless it hits American power, I’m going to leave that one out. That still leaves me with a very rich tableau of things to work with, unfortunately. And we’ll be covering up lots of those in the days, weeks and months to come.

Russia, NATO, and Negotiations

NATO flag with a Russian pin and ammunition

At the time of initial posting on Patreon, negotiations were just beginning between the US and Russia on the topic of Ukraine. US defense secretary Pete Hegseth began by conceding several points to the Russians and with blood in the water, the Russians are trying to roll back NATO’s involvement in Europe to pre-2007 levels…all based upon some he-said, she-said.

This is all part of the usual smoke and mirrors that the Russians love. As this next wave of propaganda hits, these claims will be amplified and figures like Tulsi Gabbard will likely make things worse.

The bottom line is that the Russians are betting on the Americans being dumb and gobbling up this narrative they’re pushing. Let’s just hope that US security policy isn’t so easily swayed.

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Forthcoming…

The Russian Reach: Russia’s Wish List Part 2

Flags of USA and Russia merging

If you thought that Putin already had enough to dream about based upon yesterday’s video, I’ve got news for you. Today, we’ll be adding some more items to Russia’s wish list.

As you hopefully picked up by yesterday’s video, Russia really loves when bad things happen to the US. We’re talking dismantling the FBI, undermining cybersecurity efforts, killing data collection efforts, and weakening those global intelligence networks. The Russians would also love for the US to get caught up in more global conflicts, sever ties between the US and their allies, and promote extremist politics. Oh, and while we’re at it, why not throw in the overall weakening of the US military and ability to maintain long-term strategic dominance.

Okay, that’s quite the list. This is in no way a set of predictions, just some things to keep an eye on as the Russian influence in Washington continues to shape policy.

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Scottsdale, Arizona. We’re continuing our series on the Russian reach, working from the theory that the white House has been penetrated by Russian intelligence. Today, we’re going to give basically the dream list of the things that the Russians are after. These are kind of a dragon’s teeth sort of topics, things that will hobble the United States for years, if not decades to come. 

And it starts with limiting the ability to actually even have optics on its own system. First thing would do would be destroy statistical capacity so that the United States doesn’t even have reasonable information on its population or its economic structures within its own system. We’re seeing some of that within Commerce and Department of Labor already. Next would be to go after the law enforcement system at the federal level, most notably dissembling the ability of the FBI to function. 

And if you do that, the next logical step is to disassemble all the offices within the United States, whether it’s for cyber security, physical security or organized crime that allow it to target and limit Russian capacity and Russian Intel operations with the United States. And then flip the script and actually allow the Russians to establish things like friendship centers throughout the country in the way that the Chinese recently did with Confucian centers. 

After that, you’re talking about breaking down the ability of the United States to leverage Intel on a global basis. Go after the Five Eyes network in cooperation with not just the World Health Organization, which has already happened, but with Interpol, so that the United States is even losing access to the networks that it’s built up over the decades to get to this point and then finally going after Congress. 

Congress provides the oversight and the budget for everything that happens in the U.S. system. So you start working with the really stupid Congress people and then move on to the ideologically blind Congress people and basically sabotage the system from the inside. All of that is on the docket. I’m not saying it’s going to happen. I’m saying this is what the Russians want to do. 

And that’s before you talk about the really hard security issues. 

Okay. Security issues. These fall into two general categories. The first is to. So problems around the world on the far side of what the Russians consider their outer perimeter be, so that any future resurgence of American power has a dozen things to deal with before they can even consider about dealing with the Russian state. In the case of the Middle East, the Russians loved the war on terror because for 25 years, the United States was occupied with dealing with that region. 

We basically went to war with a paramilitary tactic, which was stupid. They would love to see the Americans send a peacekeeping operation to Syria to try to hold that place together, because you don’t want to talk about a thankless task. They love, love, love, love what the Trump administration is doing with Gaza. Because here you have a completely worthless piece of territory wrapped up with the most intractable political problem, in the region. 

And in doing what Trump says he wants to do, he would rupture relations with pretty much everyone in the Arab world and again, locked down an occupation for absolutely no reason whatsoever. And never forget that the Russians have noticed what’s going on with the Houthis in Yemen and to get Americans involved in what would be basically the desert equivalent of Vietnam is something that they are really pulling for. 

And so the Russians have really been pushing for the Houthis to restart their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea in Europe. It’s a little bit more straightforward. Number one is to break completely the relationship between the Americans and the country. That has always been the primary Russian concern in Europe, and that is the Germans. And the fact that we saw the Americans actively campaigning for the neo Nazis in the last election is something the Russians really like to see. 

And if the Germans are now having to rearm because the Americans are ending the alliance, having a rearmed Germany that is also run by neo Nazis, that’s kind of the trifecta, because would scramble European security. I’m not saying that might not bite them on the ass down the line, but that’s a problem for another day. 

Looking forward a little bit more, the countries in Europe that will be part of the American Alliance in the future have to be countries that are not dependent on globalization and have a relatively young and positive demographic structure. That’s not mainland Europe for the most part. That’s Scandinavia, most notably Sweden and Denmark, who are the larger economies who are not part of the euro zone. 

So no matter what happens to Europe, it’s going to look a lot different. It won’t be an economic grouping. And those two countries combined with, say, the Nordics, the rest of the Nordic countries, which is Iceland, Norway, Finland and the Baltic states, that cluster is something that is going to endure and is likely to be the core of a future American alliance. 

Well, if the Russians can break that relationship, then all of a sudden the Americans are unmoored. In Europe and this cluster of countries, the Scandinavian Nordic countries, are the ones who have been most vociferously working with the Ukrainians to hold back Russian power. And all of a sudden, Donald Trump is talking about getting Greenland for the United States. 

And Greenland is a Scandinavian territory controlled by the Danes. So they love all that, too. But it really gets scary when the Russians are really going to lean into this. Is breaking the ability of the US military to function in the way that it does. There’s more to the American military than the ships in the jets and the infantry in the tanks. 

It’s about the people. We have the best trained force in the world, not just in how to use the hardware, but how to think about the future, how to think about how to use the hardware. And that is courtesy of our staff colleges, for example, the marine facility in Quantico or the force facility at Maxwell Air Base in Alabama, or the Postgraduate School, in Monterey, California, for the Marines in the in the Navy, these facilities teach the airmen and Marines and sailors and soldiers who have decided to make the military their calling their full time career over the long haul. It teaches them how to be better officers. It’s not just about history, it’s about economics and trade and electricity and energy and logistics and more over than that, they are also used to bring in soldiers from other militaries, not just Allied wants to teach them about things like rule of law and democracy and fighting drug trafficking and money laundering, basically creating the bonds between the American military and other potentially allied militaries around the world to make for a better future and to allow the United States to penetrate where it needs to, when it needs to. The Russians hate these facilities because they can’t replicate them themselves. People who allied with the Russians do so out of convenience, not out of any sort of cultural bond. And the Russian military is as shot through with corruption as the rest of the Russian government. And so when it comes to things like fighting drug laundering, the Russians are usually on the other side of that equation. 

The Russians would love to see these things gone, and they may have an informal ally in the shape of the current defense secretary of the United States, Pete Hegseth, back when he was a Fox News host. He would often play this Russian propaganda video for Russian recruitment with, like, you know, all strapping white dudes who were marching and shooting. 

And it’s not that marching and shooting are not military things, but there’s so much more to a modern military, especially a tech driven military, that the U.S. has than that. And if Pete Hegseth goal really is to get back to the warrior ethos of what exists in a Russian propaganda video, you know, that might have worked in the 1800s, but not today. 

And weakening the staff colleges and their support system would be an excellent way from the Russian point of view, of breaking the ability of the U.S. military to function as it does long term. And that system is the result of 85 years of fine tuning. It will take a long time to rebuild if it’s closed down. Now, do I think that all of these things will happen? 

No. This is the Russian dream list. This is not a prediction. I’m putting this together so you can look at what the administration does and judge for yourself just how far down the road we can go in the Russian direction, and just how powerful the Russian influence in Washington has become. I hope none of it happens, but I already see some of it going down.

The Russian Reach: Russia’s Wish List Part 1

Flags of USA and Russia merging

The Russians have already achieved a major intelligence breakthrough by influencing American leadership, but what if they started really swinging for the fences? What would be on the Russian wish list?

Ukraine sits at the top of that list, forcing a surrender agreement, eliminating NATO involvement, and crippling Ukraine’s military and economic capabilities. By no means is that the end of the line for the Russians. As Putin puts his head on his pillow at night, he dreams of a dismantled NATO, access to American intelligence, the ability to impose his will on other economies to benefit a struggling Russia, and undermining American demographics and health.

Some of those SHOULD seem far-fetched, but with the way things are heading…I’m not taking anything off the table. The common thread here is that Russia would love to weaken the global influence the US has and open the door for future conflicts in Eastern Europe.

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here, coming to you from Colorado. The Russians have already achieved what is typically considered the platinum standard for an intelligence operation that has been successful, and that’s getting a foreign leader to repeat all of your propaganda and even make policy based off of it. But now that they’ve achieved that, they are going to aim higher. 

And there’s no reason for them not to. They’ve got Tulsi Gabbard in the white House basically serving as their primary funnel for misinformation. And she’s preventing other information from even making it to his ears. And there are probably we’ll do with this later. Other folks within the Trump administration that are also serving as similar conduits, the bottom line is that the sky is the limit here for the Russians. 

I mean, normally you split your operations in kind of three general categories. You’ve got your day to day operations to undermine foes and support allies and support operations. You’ve got your, brands in the fire where you have longer term assets that are kind of waiting for the opportune moment, and then you’ve got your Hail Marys that you’re lining up. 

You know, you don’t expect any of these to work, but you might as well try. And now that the most powerful person in the world appears to be at least susceptible, I mean, this isn’t Viktor Orban, the prime minister of Hungary, who’s been a Russian stooge for years. This is the most powerful man in the world. 

And so for the Russians, they’re thinking that today the sky is the limit and they’re going for everything. And so this video is a list of the things they’re after. And what’s really depressing about it is you will notice that some of the things on this list, they’ve already achieved. 

What we’ve seen so far with the recent changes in the Ukrainian war with the Americans stopping to send any weapons to Ukraine, barring, any intelligence transfers, barring private entities from doing any intelligence transfers, barring the Ukrainians from purchasing anything like satellite imagery. 

It’s not that the United States is now neutral on the war. It’s that it’s actively sided with the Russians. And there’s even some preliminary reasons to expect that the U.S is actually sharing Intel with the Russians on the Ukrainians. So this is hardly the end of the story. This is the beginning of the story. So it’s worth looking forward and thinking about long term Russian goals and how the Russians can redirect American power to help achieve them. 

And the first step, of course, is any peace agreement. That’s just such the wrong word here. The, the surrender agreement, that the Trump administration is likely to force upon Ukraine in favor of the Russians, what the Russians want. Step one, no restrictions on the placement or type of Russian forces on the Russian side of the Line of Control, but a demilitarized zone on the Ukrainian side of the Line of Control. 

Also, no foreign peacekeepers, certainly. No. No NATO members, in Ukraine’s territory at all. A complete, evisceration of the Ukrainian leadership with Zelensky, the president and his senior political and military staff being remanded to Russia for trial, a public admission by Ukraine that the war is their fault and therefore the Ukrainians are subject to war. 

But preparations and, for the United States to say publicly that the war was also Europe’s idea. So Europe is on the hook for war reparations, financial assistance from the United States to reconstruct the physical infrastructure, the oil, natural gas pipelines that used to cross Ukraine, as well as the Black Sea going to Europe and an end to American liquefied natural gas exports to Europe, so that the Europeans are once again hooked on the Russians for all sorts of energy, a barring of European assistance to Ukraine and military sense. 

And should European arms manufacturers defy that, secondary sanctions from the United States on the countries involved, an American public declaration that the territories that are held by Russia, in Ukraine, as well as in other parts of the former Soviet Union, where they’ve taken over chunks of territory in other war, say, Moldova and Georgia are sovereign Russian territory. 

And therefore, from the American point of view, can never be remanded back. 

A ban on all American weapons transfers and civilian efforts from the business community to help Ukraine, whether that’s for imagery or for weapons or any sort of support equipment. A similar ban on anything coming from Europe and a Russian customs presence at all Ukrainian ports of entry to monitor, to make sure that nothing flows through, and active collaboration with American Intel throughout Europe. 

In order to make sure the Europeans stick to the letter of the deal. And remember, of course, that this deal does not need to be ratified by the Europeans. This is going to be an American Russian bilateral deal, and everyone else can just suck it. 

 Anyway… You get the idea. The point is, for Ukraine to be so neutered as a country that when the Russians decide six months, two years from now to roll in again, it’ll be a much easier fight than it was last time. 

Oh, yeah. De-industrialization of Ukraine specifically for all of its weapons development, most notably drones. That would have to be part of it. Anyway, the whole idea is that so whenever the Russians decide that now is the time to continue the war, they can roll in without a problem, and it would shatter the American relationship with NATO, which is probably on deck anyway, so that the Russians could actually then roll right into the next phase of the war, for Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Moldova. 

Remember here that this is, this is the swinging for the fences plan. You basically split what any country does with intelligence into a few buckets. You know, number one is your your day to day operations. Number two are the things where you want assets in place so you can take advantage of changes in situation. And the third one is swinging for the fences. 

So you’ll notice that some of these items are already part of the official, American line. For example, the Americans already given in to a number of the Russians, strictures when it comes to things like NATO membership for Ukraine. The Russians are going to push for more. And this is their dream list. And I’m not saying they’re going to get them all, but how far they make it down. 

This list will give you an idea just how tight, Russian control over the white House has become. Let’s see. Next, let’s talk about what the Russians are going to try to get directly, not Ukraine, but for Russia proper. 

Okay. Moving on. The thing the Russians want to affect Russia directly. An end to NATO. The United States pull out and cease all meaningful intelligence cooperation. In fact, turn that intelligence operations that we have in Europe and put them at the Russian disposal so that the Russians have eyes on everyone in Europe, most notably Germany and countries further east. 

So when that they do decide to launch the next phase of the war. Estonia, Latvia. Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Romania, you know, everyone in the Central European bloc can’t get the jump on the Russians and surprise them in the way that the Ukrainians did over and over and over again in the war. Basically use American intelligence operations, maybe even some limited American military operations, to hamstring that whole process. 

All Russian news outlets should be allowed to operate within the United States information space without any sort of restriction. The United States should stop importing agricultural products from Canada, which is mostly, wheat and coarse grains, and instead start importing them from Russia to build a reverse dependency. Compared to what we had during the Cold War, the Russians have studied their own economic history very well. 

They know where they screwed up in the Cold War and basically tried to turn that into an American vulnerability, which could only happen if the American president was really pushing for it, abandoned the American icebreaker program and decommissioned the two icebreakers the US has so that the, high Arctic becomes a Russian only zone of influence. 

Wipe all American held Russian debt to zero, and let the Russians into the heart of the American financial network once again, so they can raise funding from everywhere and even provide a few US sovereign guaranteed backstops to the bond market so that people could invest in Russia and the Americans will take the risk, which would definitely allow them to tap more capital at a lower rate. 

And then finally, perhaps most importantly, use American government financial guarantees to encourage American companies to invest directly in the Russian economy. The Russians have had a complete gut, of their skilled labor force during the war. And because no one’s really been trained in technical stuff since the 90s now, and they’re losing the ability to produce almost everything. 

But with the oil and gas industry, definitely be at the top of the list. So the Russians, literally hundreds of billions of dollars of investment, and it can’t be generated from it themselves. So if you get the U.S. government to pay for it, and the U.S. government to encourage American companies to come into the Russian space and start rehabilitating those fields and building new pipelines, that would be wonderful for them. 

In addition, yeah. It’s not enough for to just rehabilitate Russian oil and gas. You also want to get American companies involved in the production of everything in Russian occupied Ukrainian territories, so that the American government is firmly, in bed with the Russians in recognizing Russian controlled Ukrainian territory. 

Next, let’s talk about the Russians favorite topic and how to smash the American demographic advantage. 

One of the biggest weaknesses of Russia vis-a-vis the United States is demographics. Between the world wars and the mismanagement of the Soviet system combined with massive heroin and alcohol abuse, and then the economic dislocations of the 1990s, the Russian ethnicity is literally dying out. Now, it’s not dying out today. This isn’t China where we’re going to be able to see it within a decade. 

But it’s a multi-decade trend down. And the Russians know that they’re going to vanish from the Earth this century at some point. And that’s part of the reason why the Ukraine war was launched, when it was when they still had enough people under age 30 to try. But when they look at the United States and see that they see a country with much lower mortality rates, especially in younger people, they realize that there is an opportunity, right now with the Trump administration, to undo the last 120 years of progress, in reducing American mortality and in that they have probably the best possible stooge to help. 

And that is RFK junior, who is the new Health and Human Services, secretary, aside from the fact that he is personally staunchly opposed to vaccines are pretty much all types. I mean, they technically call him a vaccine skeptic, but he’s not skeptical. He’s opposed. And even with the measles outbreak we have in Texas right now, he’s saying publicly, you know, vaccines are a choice anyway. 

What the Russians would like to do is increase mortality among Americans. Under age five by at least a factor of ten. Right now, it’s about .6.6 5%. Back in 1900, before the industrialization of medication or mass immunizations, it was closer to 19%. So, you know, it’s come down by like 95%. And they’d like to push it back up. 

And the easiest way to do that is to remove vaccines from the system. You start by doing what RFK says he wants to do and making them all optional. And then you use the his position in HHS to basically dissuade everyone from getting things like boosters and to dissuade the development of new vaccines. So during Covid, we saw the first large scale application of new RNA vaccines, which have an order of magnitude fewer side effects. 

But the Russians were able to basically convince a segment of the American population that they were horribly dangerous. And right now, we have mRNA vaccines starting to come out in all kinds of different disease prevention. And we’re even starting to see the early stages of, say, cancer vaccines because of the technology. I mean, it really is amazing stuff. 

So the Russians would want RFK to do what RFK is going to do and try to smash that development at any possible way in order to keep American mortality as high as possible. 

The Russians think that RFK is so stupid. 

I mean, he’s got to be one of the dumbest people alive today that, they really can’t keep up with how misfired his brain works. Because anything that they try to put into his head, he immediately twists into something that’s even more grotesque. And he’s kind of like a roach motel for conspiracy theories. So there’s this one little contest among the Russian bot farm about who can get RFK to say the dumbest things. 

And the thing is, everyone has one. Because the guy really is a moron. And now he’s in charge of health policy in the United States. So now that the Education Department is likely to go away and its, prerogatives are likely to be split up among other departments, things like vaccine mandates that were used to be enforced by the Education department will now come to HHS, and RFK Jr will be in a position to basically smash those shots first, turning them into voluntary operations and eventually whittling down the list of vaccines that can be used, even if some of these has been approved for decades and really have no side effects at all. 

The goal here is very simple to, over the decades, bleed out the American population so that we end up in a Russian style demographic crisis. 

Let’s talk about the economic space. The Russians would love, for example, to break the power of the US Federal Reserve. Or at least have it redirected to service Russian national goals. The US dollar is the global currency that allows the United States do a lot of things. And part of that is because the Federal Reserve runs a relatively tight ship when it comes to monetary authority. 

Anything that weakens that would be great, especially if it encourages the circulation in the use of non US dollar assets, over which the Russians have a lot of influence, especially through the crime directive. Or keep in mind that the Russian political system is led by Putin is in part a partnership with organized crime. And so any type of cybercrime fall to the core of that. 

So anything that encourages crypto, especially Bitcoin, is something that the Russians would really like to see because it would give them more of an in into the entire Western world and start to eat away from it below. There is nothing in the private sector that could make that happen. But if the US president were to take actions to weaken the fed and encourage crypto. 

Well, there we are. Let’s see, on the topic of the bond market, use the politicization of the FBI to go after any sort of financial institution in the United States that actually provides a degree of economic stability. So these are the major bond traders. These are the major banks. And all you have to do is generate a pretext that, for whatever reason, one of the or more of these groups has a problem with Donald Trump, and then he directs the FBI to basically go in there, start arresting people and shutting things down. 

The Russians would love to see that at scale. And there are so many people in the financial world who are concerned about what Trump is doing economically. It’d be really easy for Trump to drop a hit list, in terms of broader economics, go after the trade relationship, most notably the NAFTA relationship. The Russians understand that they’re no longer manufacturing power. 

And part of the reason for that is that no one trusts them. And so no one will participate with the Russians on supply chains. Well, in North America, the three countries are the most tightly integrated manufacturing region on the planet. And anything you can do to throw sand in those gears is great. So, for example, if you can get the president to go up to Canada and say, you know what, we’re going to change the borders. 

You know, that’s a great idea. Also, this tariff strategy going on and off and on and off and on and off and on off. Last week we had five different strategies for tariffs in Canada in one week. That’s wonderful for arresting industrial development in all three countries. And then what else? Oh yeah. Destroy the agricultural sector. 

Ban the use of things like synthetic fertilizers, synthetic pesticides, synthetic herbicides. This is something that their wind up toy of RFK juniors already working on. Because if you can reduce American yields by half or more, all of a sudden the world’s largest food exporter turns into a food importer. And the Russians gain a lot more leverage around the world because they’re still the world’s largest wheat exporter. 

One more end of American sanctions on the Chinese chip industry. Two things going on here. Number one, the Biden administration built up this great alliance of countries around the world who participate in the supply chain for microchips and got them all to cooperate on restricting access to China. So in breaking this, not only would the Russians break up the American relationships with a lot of the allies, you’d also establish in China an alternative option for high end chips. 

So if relations with the United States and Russia go back to something that’s more akin to normal, there would now be an alternate supply. It would make the Russians far less susceptible to American sanctions for the next war. The Russians try to launch. 

On the security front, things basically fall into two categories, and it’s all revolving around nuclear weapons. The Russians would want to break the relationship between the United States on one hand and the French and the Brits on the other hand, because those are the two countries in Europe today that already have nukes. And there’s a lot deeper relationship here than just having three nuclear powers who are our allies. 

I mean, it’s not just about breaking it so that they’re pointing nukes at one another instead of just at the Russians. And it really comes down to the American British relationship. That relationship gives the United States access to a huge portion of what used to be part of the British Empire. So, for example, there is a nuclear submarine base that the US uses extensively in Scotland that allows for power projections into the northeast Atlantic, which is the part of the Atlantic the Russians are most concerned about. 

If you can, for example, get the Americans to actively encourage Scottish independence. You not only shatter the relationship with London, you also end the American naval presence in that part of the world, which gives the Russians a number of options. Same basic concept is down in the Mediterranean. The Brits have a foothold in Cyprus. They have a foothold in Gibraltar. 

And the Americans both use those assets regularly. But if the American Anglo relationship is broken, then all of a sudden the American position in the Mediterranean writ large dissolves because there’s no place to base. Same goes for places like Diego Garcia in the Pacific. So this is absolutely top tier. It’s definitely falling into the swing for the fences issue. 

But considering the ability of Donald Trump and J.D. Vance to deeply, personally offend the Brits of late and basically talk down the alliance, it’s not something that we can rule out something the Russians would love to see. 

As for the American nukes, Donald Trump is on record saying he’d like to get rid of him completely so that. Yes. Have the Americans unilaterally disarm, or at least get rid of more of their weapons? Maybe have an agreement with the Russians that you can’t place any sort of nukes on any sort of naval vessel. Since the Russians don’t have much of a navy, that’s not them giving up very much. 

And maybe even get some inspections in there so that the Russians can peep under the hood of American military hardware to ensure that the Americans aren’t warmongers. 

Hell, that’s a lot. Okay, we’re not done. That’s just 20 minutes. That’s enough for today. Tomorrow we’re going to go into the really long term stuff that is designed to cripple the United States. Long term things that the Trump administration may already be working on.

The Chinese Attempt the Impossible

A group of people on a hill hoisting up a Chinese flag

The long-term outlook for China is bleak. I’ve discussed it plenty. However, the Chinese are getting a little lovin’ from an unexpected source.

At China’s National Congress, Xi got to hear all his biggest fans clap in unison and then listen to him spout off about his unrealistic 5% GDP growth target. And as a reminder to just how unrealistic this is, go ahead and look through China’s demographics, housing crisis, and overall economic stagnation.

Despite all those factors working against Xi, he’s getting some lovin’ from the place he least expected it. With Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the mass exodus of manufacturing from China has slowed. This won’t save the Chinese, but the Trump administration just put a couple more quarters in their parking meter.

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Colorado? We’re gonna take a break from all the Trump stuff and talk about how China screwed, because that’s an oldie but a goodie that everyone likes to hear. So over the last couple of weeks, the Chinese have been having their national congress, which is basically a rubber stamp group of the Chinese Communist Party that gets together to slow clap. 

Now, it was literally sort of hilarious when Sharon ji walked in like a thousand people slow clapped in unison. I mean, it was some creepy Orwellian shit. But it underlines just how tight the cult of personality is that, Ji is kind of a little bit like Trump, and now he requires these public displays of affection from people who aren’t allowed to speak. 

Anyway, the big thing that was proclaimed was we’re going to stick with the 5% GDP growth target, which they can’t make, and they’re going to bend the will of the state, I believe, is the specific offic, quote, to robustly expand the consumption of the people, the idea that the state is going to get the people to spend, you know, has clear misunderstanding of how markets work. 

It’s also not going to work. Most of the consumption that is done in the society is from people who are aged roughly 20 to 40 5 or 50. The people who are having kids, they’re building up. They’re accruing the assets that they’re going to have in life. And they’re going to college and they’re buying cars and they’re buying homes. 

Once you hit that 45, 50 point, the kids are usually no longer a factor. The house is probably going to be downsized and they’re done accruing material or wealth. And so they then start building financial wealth, which is a different sort of economic activity. So for China to get people to expand consumption, he needs to make life easier for people who age 20 to 40 5 to 52. 

Problems with that? Number one, China just went through the fastest urbanization process in human history, and it’s local governments in order to get more funding from the national government as well as more local tax revenue in the like, basically sold a bunch of land, built a lot of condos, which created housing that most people can’t afford. And each individual housing unit is typically owned not by one person, by it, by a cluster of neighbors and friends and associates, with each condo being owned by a different cluster. 

So selling one is almost impossible. And, they don’t want to rent them out. Because once somebody moves into a condo, the feng shui changes. Never underestimate how superstitious the Chinese can be. And so they’re just sitting empty. So there’s a crisis of cost of living in China. That’s problem one. Problem two. Rapid urbanization means a rapid drop in birth rate. 

We are now 50 years of that process. And the Chinese now have more people age 52 and over than 52 and under. There no longer is a big demographic of people under the age of 50 who can potentially consume. So the open question here, of course, is, has China had any real economic growth in the last five years because we flipped into this 50 to having more people over 50 than under during Covid, which is when the Chinese stopped collecting a lot of statistics on their population because you didn’t like the way that they looked. 

So we don’t really know. But just working from what we do know, it does look like exports have expanded while consumption has contracted faster, generally leading to a stagnation across the system. When in terms of the headline figure, that would be problematic enough as it is, but we now have 20% terrorist from the United States on the Chinese system. 

And with every incremental step up, the case for investment in China drops, which is not the same as saying that the case for moving out of China has improved because by threatening tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which is where most of the stuff would go, and then withdrawing and threatening and re withdrawing and re threatening. Donald Trump has basically introduced a huge amount of geopolitical and regulatory risk into the North American system, and no one who feels that they can afford to wait is going to move into that environment until that has some clarity one way or another. 

We are now in the sixth or seventh week, the Trump administration, and we have already had five different tariff policies just on Canada and Mexico. So we are nowhere close to that settling. So ironically, this is providing the Chinese with something that they are in desperate need of. And that’s a bit of a breather, because before Trump came along, we were looking at record rates of slight of industry from China to other places, most notably North America. 

Because the cost structure wasn’t there, the risk was there, and North America was risk free. Now, the risk in North America has risen to the level to counter out those other Chinese issues. So we’re kind of in a holding pattern waiting to see when Trump calms down.

The Russian Reach: Christian Ultranationalism

Photo of a bible on the US constitution and flag

I’ve been on the receiving end of more than a few theories on what might be contributing to the absurdity that we’re seeing. One of the more interesting ideas is that there could be some Christian ultranationalism on the table.

Christian Ultranationalism is the ideology that blends extreme nationalism with religious rhetoric, promoting the idea that a global cabal is working to eradicate the white race – and yes, it is often just a cover for racism and anti-immigrant beliefs. The basic premise is that everything in the Western world needs to be toppled and rebuilt.

There are plenty of figures within the US administration that adhere to these beliefs, and they are OBSESSED with South Africa and Russia. Obviously, there’s a lot of discrepancies mixed into this belief system, which makes it an even more dangerous manipulation of religion for political purposes. Oh, and it just so happens to mirror a lot of Russian propaganda efforts.

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Hey, all Peter Zeihan here, coming to you from Scottsdale, Arizona. Since we started the Russian Reach series, a lot of you have been writing in with little tips, information that you’ve got from within the government system right up into the white House, which is kind of crazy. And, alternative theories that might match the facts in front of us. 

And one of these, I think, is worth exploring a little bit. It’s called Christian nationalism. Or really, what it is, is ultra nationalism. It’s the idea that there’s this global cabal out there that is working to undermined and eradicate the white race. It tends to be obviously wildly racist, opposed to immigration in pretty much all forms, unless they’re white people, very violent and, distrust any sort of large organization. 

So they generally hate Catholics, specifically the Pope, Muslims or worse. And as a rule, they think that, Western civilization has been corrupted or controlled from within by these larger forces. And so all of Western civilization needs to be torn down to the studs have been rebuilt with a fusion of church and state. Of course, there’s no agreement as to what church means. 

So really, it’s just a cover for people to be wildly racist and say that white people should be in charge. 

Powerful white people, specific, Powerful white people. Within the American administration, the four biggest adherents would be, Russell Vought, the OMB. Elon Musk, of course, on the outside looking in is Peter Thiel. And then JD Vance, the vice president, is a member of this general. 

It’s not even a club, but worldview. And that kind of gives you an idea of just how flexible, the ideology of Christian ultra nationalism is. It’s, you know, JD Vance is a Catholic, although a practically evangelical Catholic. Elon Musk is practically agnostic. Peter Thiel is gay. So there’s all it’s kind of a big tent with a lot of ideas. 

All I can really say that kind of draws it all together is there’s nothing about it that’s actually Christian. 

I’m no theologian, but I’m fairly certain that there’s a nice hot spot on the other side of the veil for people who try to actually put this into practice. Anyway, there are some commonalities here that kind of run the rainbow with this group that everybody agrees on. There are two countries in particular that they’re just obsessed about. 

And the first is South Africa, because here is a country that white people brought civilization to. And clearly, with the end of apartheid and the return of majority rule by blacks. Clearly this is part of an effort by the globalist cabal to test out white genocide. So when Donald Trump picked a fight on a random Tuesday with the South African government, it didn’t just completely come out of the blue. 

It was routed on by these groups, specifically Elon Musk, who was born in South Africa. The other country that the Ultranationalists are really obsessed with is Russia. They see Russia as fighting the good fight and its demographic collapse as a warning to white people everywhere of what could happen if the Muslim hordes were allowed to rise up. 

And as a result, Christian Ultranationalists are pretty much pro-Russian, no matter what the Russians do. So, for example, if they attack another Christian nation, Ukraine, that’s fine, because they’re just trying to hold the torch for the rest of us. And it’s just it’s kind of silly because the Putin government, one of his chief pillars of support are the ultra violent Muslim Chechens who carry out pogroms against Christians regularly and the Russian military forces when they went into Ukraine. 

 One of the first groups that they attacked were American evangelical ministers which is one of the reasons why it’s kind of just a shade in the background. It’s people using religion as a cover to do horrible things. 

Not that we’ve ever seen that before. 

But the reason it’s worth talking about is not only are some of these people very well placed within the current administration, but, there’s a lot of overlap between Christian nationalism and Russian propaganda these days. The Russians are very well aware of this trend, and they’ve worked to encourage it across Europe and the United States for quite some time. 

And a lot of their useful idiots throughout the US and European political systems fall into this Christian nationalist camp. I’m sure you can all come up with a few names yourself if you put your mind to it. The idea that Russia is beleaguered and needs assistance and should be respected is something that dovetails very nicely with the Russian mindset. 

Every country has their own reason why they think they’re better than everyone else, and for the Russians, they have superiority complex that is based on an inferiority complex. The idea is that we have suffered so much. Therefore, you should do things our way. It’s very powerful, for motivating Russians. And now it’s being repeated basically by these Christian ultranationalists. 

And so whether the issue is going after U.S. intelligence, part of the cabal, going after the European Union, part of the cabal, or simply trying to give the Russians, what they want in places like Ukraine fighting back against the cabal. The Russians have done what they can to dovetail their existing propaganda with these forces. 

So yeah, it can be both. Not just the Russians, but trying to dovetail with a more domestically oriented group that is trying to use a bastardization of religion to achieve its political goals.

Making Sense of Africa: Congo and Rwanda

Photo of Rwanda, Africa and goats on the horizon

Let’s take a breather from the Russian Reach series and talk about something going on in Africa. Specifically, we’ll be looking at the escalating conflict between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Rwanda is a small but densely populated country, with a history of sending militias into neighboring Congo. This latest offensive led by M23 has been making a significant push toward the Katanga region, home to one of the world’s largest copper-cobalt deposits. Since the DRC produces roughly 75% of the world’s cobalt, this has obviously caught the attention of some bigger players.

China and South Africa are the main operators in the region as of now, but the Congolese government has offered the US exclusive oversight of the copper-cobalt belt in exchange for protection against Rwanda. Should Trump care to set out on this endeavor, it will be a large undertaking. The US would have to partner with Angola or Mozambique to tap into South Africa’s transportation network or build new infrastructure in eastern Congo (which would be challenging).

This conflict could spiral into a major war – one akin to previous conflicts in the region, killing millions and involving numerous foreign powers. And given the rising tensions between the US and China, we could be staring down a geopolitical flashpoint.

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Transcript

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Colorado. And today we’re talking about something completely different, specifically what’s going on with Rwanda and Congo. And I think that I’m gonna make this relevant. Okay. Who are they? First of all, Ronda is a tiny, tiny little country. One of the little landlocked ones, just to the west of the Horn of Africa and Congo is the opposite. 

This huge country in the heart of equatorial Africa really only has a tiny little frontage, so it might as well be landlocked. But it’s larger than all of the countries of Western Europe combined. What do they have in common? Not a lot. Their borders are demarcated because of the way that the colonial era ran. And so, especially in the case of Congo, it makes very little sense. 

But what Rwanda has going forward is it’s just in the right spot with volcanic soil, just enough upland to keep the humidity under control. That is incredibly fertile. So it’s probably the densest population density on the continent once you’ve removed Egypt, which is a very special case. As a result, it always has a high fertility rate and generates a lot of populations. 

And it’s generally led by people who are not particularly nice. And so every once in a while, they send an army across their borders to muck with somebody else for whatever reason. The world has called that genocide in the past. And so the way that the Rwandans have adapted is by generating a militia that they don’t control, that just happens to go out and do things that they like to get done. 

It’s complete pretexts called M23. Anyway, M23 has been operating in eastern Congo now for a few years, and in recent weeks actually managed to capture a couple significant cities of size. And they’re continuing on the march. And there’s really nothing Congolese can do about it, because Congo’s territory is a shit show. It’s jungle, it’s mountainous, it’s it’s forested, it’s steep, it’s remote. 

There are very few roads in the country. And so while Kinshasa, the nominal capital all the way in the west, is officially controls all of it, you really had these series of regional capitals that operate like little fiefdoms. It’s a very holy Roman Empire. Well, what is happening now is that the Rwandan groups M23 are basically breaking out of their region in the northeast part of the country and moving further south and further west, and that is pushing them towards the Katanga region, which is the site of Congo’s copper cobalt belt, which is one of the world’s richest mineral sources, specifically providing roughly 70 to 75% of the world’s cobalt. 

And if you want to live in a world that involves batteries in some way, when we’re talking like electric vehicle batteries or grid cell batteries, you have to have cobalt. So all of a sudden, this has gotten very, very real. The last time Rwanda did this at scale, they overthrew the Congolese government. And imposed one of their proxies in charge, and he ruled the country until about Fugees 2008 2018. 

It’s been a hot minute, but, for a while, and that happened back in 1999 to 2001. You guys may remember the name Mobutu. He was the guy who took over for the Belgians after they left. He ran the place into the ground until that eventually the Rwandans ousted him. Anyway, we have a different government now, but there are painfully aware of when Rwanda decides that they want to oversee you through your government. 

They can, because the Rwandans are supplied, they’ve got cash and they have the unofficial blessing of the international community for a weird reason. Because if you remember back, there was, a series of genocides not too long ago in Rwanda, and the guy who eventually emerged and, on top of that, a guy by the name of Kagame, basically made nice with the Western institutions, in order to and ended the genocide. 

So, you know, I don’t mean to take away that from him, but he’s borderline genocidal himself. And now he’s turning his tender mercies onto Congo. So far, no one has called him to the carpet on it. I really doubt the Trump administration is going to do that. In other news, you have to watch who is ultimately going to end up control this belt. 

Right now, the Chinese are probably the largest operators in the cobalt space, whereas South Africa plays a role in transport because they control the rail network that takes the ore from the copper side of things, which is a lot bulkier than the cobalt and takes it down to their ports in South Africa for shipping out, no matter what shape the world is in, five, ten, 15 years from now, the materials from. 

Congo are going to be central. The world does not have enough copper. The United States needs to massively improve its industrial plant even before you consider the Green Revolution. And everything with the Green Revolution revolves around electricity. So you need it for the wiring and the batteries and everything else. And then, of course, the copper itself. 

So this is a space to watch. And I just had to shove this in there between all the Trump stuff that’s going on. 

Well, shit, there’s a trump angle to this one too. In the time that it took me to walk back to download this, the Congolese government has offered Donald Trump personally that if they come and protect Congo from Rwanda, that they will sign a deal that gives the Americans oversight and access to the entire copper cobalt belt. Something like the copper cobalt belt is in the southeastern part of the country. 

It is not well linked up to the rest of the country at all. This is one of the reasons why the Rwandans, are making a play for it, because the Congolese really can’t defend it. The only infrastructure in the area that really does link it to the outside world goes south down the spine of southern Africa into South Africa. 

But South Africa, no longer has the expeditionary military force to project power up that line. And the only other country in the region that really has military power at all would be Angola. And they’re on the wrong side of the jungles as well. So if if the United States were to do this, we’d have to do one of two things. 

Number one, it would have to cut a deal with either Angola or Mozambique or both to access that South African spine in order to come in from the south and probably be the easiest way. And the Biden administration did make a lot of progress with Angola on firming up the relationship at the detriment of China. The second option would be cut a deal with consortia. 

You know, Congo’s nominal government and build out the infrastructure that would be necessary to go in from the east. The Congo option would be the illegal option. The Angola or the Mozambique option would be the imperial option. And before you say anything about Donald Trump and imperialism, just keep in mind we are talking here about the deep, dark heart of Africa. 

So the infrastructure is non-existent. The militants are everywhere. And the last time we had a major war in this region, which was just in the 90s, in the 2000, at least 2 million people died and 17 countries were involved. And that’s before you consider, say, outside powers like China, the United States. So if you are looking for a long, drawn out, messy approach to getting critical minerals, this might be just your speed.

A Fresh Mess In Syria

Photo of a bombed out Syrian city

Government-backed paramilitary forces (supported by Turkey) in Syria’s Alawite enclave brutally suppressed the Alawite opposition. The Alawites are now seeking protection at Russian military bases as the Sunni-led government consolidates power.

Turkey’s support was critical in this crackdown and furthers the Turkish goal of weakening opposition along their Southern border. The Russians are getting squeezed out of the region, although Israel would prefer they stay in place to keep Syria fragmented.

Israel isn’t the only one favoring the Russians though; US policy is shifting in favor of Russian interests in Syria. This is just another layer of how Russian influence is reshaping global power dynamics.

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Transcript

Peter Zeihan here coming to you from the Denver airport. Today we’re talking about something happened yesterday, and they did before. Basically, we had a blow up of violence in the Alawite enclave of Syria. Now the highlights live on a coastal enclave that’s heavily forested on the west side of a mountainous ridge that separates the interior of the Fertile Crescent region from the Mediterranean. 

 This is the place where a couple of the Russian bases are called on Tartus and, Bonnie on. I mean, buddy is something like that. Anyway, it’s unclear what started. The Alawites had reason to go after the government. The new government, which is Sunni different ethno sectarian group, had reasons to go after the Alawites. 

And the Alawites were the ethnic group that the previous dictator, Assad, came from. So it’s unclear who pulled the trigger first, but both of them went at it and the government absolutely came out on top. Specifically groups of the paramilitary group that’s aligned with the government called the FCS. They’re the ones who recently, decisively won the Civil War. 

They’re the ones who did most of the killing. And several hundred, civilians were basically dragged out the street shot. They had group definitely had a hit list lined up. And so it’s unclear who started the fight. It’s very clear who finished it. A couple things here, number one. The government forces backed by or vice versa. 

We’re a little bit too confident, a little bit too together. Had a little bit too good of Intel and too good of weapons for just being a government that has been there for less than two months at this point. So their sponsors, the Turkish government, were absolutely in play and they wanted these massacres to happen. It’s not hard to see why the Alawites were the core of the previous government that was anti-Western, anti-American, anti-Israeli and anti Turkish. 

And the Turks want to make sure that everyone in the northern perimeter of Syria is either broken or on their side. And this one along we would mean that. But that brings us to the second thing. The Russians have had bases in Syria for about a decade now, and they intervened very decisively in the favor of the old government in the Civil war, killing probably close to 100,000 people before all was said and done, mostly civilians. 

And the Russians would like to hang on to the two naval bases that they have on the coast. But they were in the process of getting squeezed out by the Turks and the new Syrian government. Well, a few things. Number one, the Alawites now are apparently congregating outside the bases asking for protection. But number two, the Israelis kind of would like to have the Russians keep at least a nominal foothold because it would shatter Syria and prevent it from ever resurrecting itself as any sort of threat to Israel again. 

But third, far more importantly, is the chief Russian agent in the US government, Tulsi Gabbard, is now starting to agitate actively against the new Syrian government in favor of the Alawites. And it’s probably only going to be a matter of days before she, and by extension, the US government, starts actively asking the Russians to stay behind. We’ve been seeing American, foreign and strategic policy tilt towards the Russians in any number of ways. 

It’s loudest in Ukraine. It’s also happening within NATO’s Europe. It’s also now happening in places like Japan. And now we have it also in Syria. So the degree of Russian penetration into the white House really is robust, and it’s starting to reshape regional dynamics in ways that will empower the Russians for years, if not decades to come and will complicate American foreign policy for years, if not decades to come. 

Yeah, that’s all I got to.