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Hurricane Helene is heading toward the Big Bend of Florida and was set to make landfall around midnight last night. As a Category 3 storm, Helene is poised to make quite the splash, so here’s what to keep an eye on.
The leading right quadrant of a hurricane is the most dangerous. So, if you’re in that…hold on tight. You can expect high winds and storm surges, which could exceed 20 feet in this storm. Storm surges are where the most damage happens, due to severe flooding and the destruction of buildings. There are some other factors playing into the severity of these storms, like people and insurance. With more people moving to hurricane-prone areas and therefore being affected by these storms, insurance premiums have skyrocketed.
In addition, Helene is taking an unusual path, which is expected to amplify its impact. After it makes landfall, it will travel through Georgia and into the Appalachian region, where it will linger for a bit. This will cause more rain and flooding to hit these areas in particular.
And I have one final tip for those who refuse to listen to the weather man, but want to know how bad the hurricane is going to be. Just head on down to your local Waffle House; if it has a full menu – you should be okay, if it has a limited menu – you might want to worry, and if its shut down – you need to get the hell out of Dodge.
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Hey everybody, Peter Zeihan here coming to you from—where am I?—Wisconsin. Today we are going to talk about the hurricane that has just hit the Florida coast in the Big Bend area. It’s at the crook where Peninsula Florida meets the rest of the Panhandle. Hurricane Helene hit—or will hit when I’m recording this—probably around midnight, which means the morning you’re watching this, it’ll likely be a Category 3 hurricane.
Three things to keep in mind about hurricanes in general, and a fourth that applies specifically to this one:
First of all, whenever hurricanes come in, look for the leading right quadrant. So imagine yourself sitting in the eye of the hurricane, facing forward. To the right is where most of the winds are, most of the storms, most of the tornadoes, and, most importantly, the storm surge. While the winds, tornadoes, and storms are dangerous, the real problem with most hurricanes, especially the larger ones, is the storm surge. It pushes several feet of water ahead of the storm.
In the case of Helene, they’re expecting storm surges in excess of 15, maybe even hitting 20 feet, due to a combination of the strength of the winds and the path it’s following. Which would be, you know, bad. It’s one thing when a storm dumps a foot of rain on you; it’s quite another when you’re under 20 feet of water. Survival in that situation becomes questionable, and most buildings that are not hugely reinforced get washed away.
The second thing to keep in mind is that when a storm hits, it’s obviously affecting low-lying areas. This is now becoming a financial problem. It’s not so much about climate change, although that will undoubtedly become a bigger part of the issue. Instead, it’s an insurance problem.
As Americans get older, as the Baby Boomers retire, more and more people are moving from the North and interior of the country into the Sun Belt and the Southeast. Of course, everything from Corpus Christi up to the Chesapeake is in Hurricane Alley. So, the issue isn’t necessarily that we have more storms, but that more people are living in those zones. The bigger the population in dangerous zones, the bigger the cost of rebuilding. That means insurance companies have no choice but to raise premiums, as the upper limit of what a single storm can do in terms of damage is getting higher and higher.
As a rule, the two concerns about climate change in the short term are: warmer seas, which can generate bigger storms because warmer air can hold more moisture; and in the longer term, higher sea levels, which means the storm surge starts six inches, a foot, or a meter higher—making everything else that much more difficult to defend.
The third thing is: if you find yourself in a zone with an active storm, arguably your single best source of information on how bad things really are is Waffle House. FEMA doesn’t just set up in the parking lots of Waffle Houses to monitor the situation and feed people. They go there because the Waffle House menu covers all the basics: flour, sugar, butter, eggs, that sort of thing. So, if the Waffle House is operating on a full menu, they know the storm isn’t too bad, and they probably have the right amount of resources. If there’s a constrained menu, they know they need to take it seriously. And if a Waffle House shuts down… well, then all hell has broken loose, and they need to call Washington and get as many resources and people as possible.
This applies for any hurricane, and since hurricanes hit the South and Southeast, there’s always a Waffle House nearby.
The final point for Hurricane Helene specifically: once it makes landfall in the vicinity of the bend in the Panhandle region, it’s expected to go north through western Georgia. When it hits roughly the Kentucky-Tennessee border, it’s expected to loop west and then south into a curlicue before eventually jetting off to the northeast, following a normal storm track. It’s going to take probably a day and a half to two days to complete that curlicue. So, you get a very large storm—Category 3 when it hits land—that will hang around for a couple of days in an area that is the most rugged in the United States, east of the Rockies, dumping feet of rain on terrain that is already pretty serrated.
So, we’re not just going to have the storm surge damage that Florida has a lot of experience dealing with; we’re going to get a huge amount of flooding more in the interior of the country. And FEMA will already be committed to the coast, so it’s going to be up to state authorities to mitigate what’s going on in the southern Appalachians.
We don’t see this very often. Usually, storms blow through, drop six inches of rain on their way over, and then they’re gone. But here, we’re talking about multiple feet of rain falling in the area between Lexington, Kentucky, and Nashville, Tennessee. So, stay safe. Watch Waffle House. Obviously, listen to local law enforcement and FEMA.
One more thing: if you’re in the way of a hurricane, and you’re in the leading left quadrant—so sitting in the eye, looking forward to the left—most of it’s going to miss you. You’re not going to get the storm surge, you’re not going to get huge storms, and you’re probably not going to have any tornadoes. In fact, it might be calm—maybe a little blustery, maybe even a clear day. So, have a hurricane party, but don’t be a jerk about it. Just to your east or north is a community that’s fighting for its life, and you definitely don’t want to get in a situation where you’re pulling emergency services away from them.
So, have a good time—responsibly.
